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Suedehead2
post Jun 11 2017, 07:48 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jun 11 2017, 08:37 PM) *
Whilst I'm not a fan of reliving the EU referendum arguments (that's so 2016), I'd say that the main reason that Remain lost is because their side failed to make a strong emotional argument for staying in the EU - rational or pragmatic arguments were never going to win the day. Leave on the other hand hit all the emotional sweet spots, even though it now looks like the vision for a post-Brexit UK we were sold is looking more or more like a big fat lemon covered in seagull poo.

Corbyn's policies didn't matter, but what did matter is that he has triggered something emotionally in the 18-24 year old demographic that no politician has been able to substantially do for a long time, something that no logical or rational argument against him and his past connections was ever going to harm i.e linking Corbyn to the IRA was going to have no impact on a demographic who were born after the IRA ceased their bombing campaign on the mainland. Although I must admit that I am surprised that attacks linking Corbyn to Iranian state TV, a regime that is rather hostile to another group of people that that demographic is quite keen on, never materialized during the final week of the campaign.

Basically, Corbyn made a lot of people who didn't feel good about themselves feel good about themselves, that's why he did better than expected.

Perhaps surprisingly, Harry Styles of all people made a strong emotional argument for supporting Remain. Unfortunately, i) most of the people who might be influenced by him are too young to vote; ii) he only said it a moth or two ago which was a bit late.
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vidcapper
post Jun 12 2017, 08:30 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 11 2017, 08:28 PM) *
That's my point. Corbyn was invisible in the campaign. If he had campaigned in the referendum the way he did in the election, the result could have been different.


But in 1983, Corbyn was past of the 'Leave' supporting Labour party (although this was before it became the EU, of course), and therefore his low profile in the referendum last year might be explained by his ununthusiastic feelings towards the EU.

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jun 11 2017, 08:37 PM) *
Whilst I'm not a fan of reliving the EU referendum arguments (that's so 2016), I'd say that the main reason that Remain lost is because their side failed to make a strong emotional argument for staying in the EU - rational or pragmatic arguments were never going to win the day. Leave on the other hand hit all the emotional sweet spots, even though it now looks like the vision for a post-Brexit UK we were sold is looking more or more like a big fat lemon covered in seagull poo.


So, what *were* the emotional arguments for staying in?

As for the 'post-Brexit vision', how can we possibly know what it'll be like until it happens?

QUOTE
Corbyn's policies didn't matter, but what did matter is that he has triggered something emotionally in the 18-24 year old demographic that no politician has been able to substantially do for a long time, something that no logical or rational argument against him and his past connections was ever going to harm i.e linking Corbyn to the IRA was going to have no impact on a demographic who were born after the IRA ceased their bombing campaign
You may have a point there - and it would presumably also apply to nuclear weapons - those who were born after the end of the Cold War, can have little understandingof how it felt to have the Soviet 'Sword Of Damocles' hanging over us 24/7. Having our own nuclear weapons maintained the MAD (*) scenario which forestalled both sides from using them.

(*) Mutually Assured Destruction

QUOTE
Basically, Corbyn made a lot of people who didn't feel good about themselves feel good about themselves, that's why he did better than expected.


But I contend that what he was doing is akin to drinking - it makes you feel good for a while, but doesn't solve the problems that drove you to drink in the first place.


This post has been edited by vidcapper: Jun 12 2017, 08:31 AM
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Brett-Butler
post Jun 12 2017, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jun 12 2017, 09:30 AM) *
So, what *were* the emotional arguments for staying in?

As for the 'post-Brexit vision', how can we possibly know what it'll be like until it happens?


I'm much better at diagnosing the symptoms rather than the antidote. But from talking to people after the referendum, one of the best emotional, rather than rational, appeals came surprisingly from Gordon Brown in this video -



Whilst there were a few "reasonable" arguments thrown into there, the take home you get, and I got, from watching that video is a) The United Kingdom is awesome b) The United Kingdom is awesome because we are in the EU c) the other countries in the EU are in the EU because the UK is awesome, and d) if the United Kingdom remains in the EU, it will become even more awesome. Even now, watching it makes me pine for the EU, and I was very much an apathetic Remainer.

Of course, it's not 100% perfect. Firstly, it was not widely distributed before the election (I only saw it for the first time a few days after the vote, and I was reasonably up to date with the comings and goings of the referendum). And secondly, in my humble opinion, Gordon Brown was not the right vehicle for this. The ideal candidate would have been a non-politician who is popular with everyone, who isn't strongly tied in people's minds to one political party and is loved regardless of where they stand on the political spectrum, someone like David Tennant for example.
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Popchartfreak
post Jun 12 2017, 11:47 AM
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one immediate post-mortem following his re-election from our local MP (time to name names Robert "Dick" Syms, as he shall forever more be named) has taken his own innate arrogance and apathy for doing anything for voters in his very very safe Tory seat and at long last made it public - someone tweeting him about very reasonable concerns about shacking up politically with u-know-who made the basic error of calling it a coalition. "It's not a coalition you dick" he opined. That fits in perfectly with previous arrogant, obnoxious, unconcerned responses I've had to an issue raised - if he bothers to respond at all.

Typical Tory in other words. feels safe, feels arrogant, refuses to accept reasonable criticism, doesn't care about anyone who 's not a staunch rich Tory voter. Challenged to name anything he has done for his constituents in his political career would, I'm sure, gather a similar abusive response rather than offering up facts and reasoned debate.

That's an example of why they didn't get the walkover they were expecting.
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Brett-Butler
post Jun 12 2017, 01:06 PM
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Things you couldn't make up - one of the reasons why the Queen's Speech is being delayed is because the programme for government is written on vellum (goat-skin paper), which takes several days to dry.

I just love the quirks of tradition in British democracy.
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crazy chris
post Jun 12 2017, 03:15 PM
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When's the Queen's speech then? Thought it was next Monday.
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Suedehead2
post Jun 12 2017, 03:26 PM
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QUOTE(popchartfreak @ Jun 12 2017, 12:47 PM) *
one immediate post-mortem following his re-election from our local MP (time to name names Robert "Dick" Syms, as he shall forever more be named) has taken his own innate arrogance and apathy for doing anything for voters in his very very safe Tory seat and at long last made it public - someone tweeting him about very reasonable concerns about shacking up politically with u-know-who made the basic error of calling it a coalition. "It's not a coalition you dick" he opined. That fits in perfectly with previous arrogant, obnoxious, unconcerned responses I've had to an issue raised - if he bothers to respond at all.

Typical Tory in other words. feels safe, feels arrogant, refuses to accept reasonable criticism, doesn't care about anyone who 's not a staunch rich Tory voter. Challenged to name anything he has done for his constituents in his political career would, I'm sure, gather a similar abusive response rather than offering up facts and reasoned debate.

That's an example of why they didn't get the walkover they were expecting.

I did notice that there were a number of comments attached to this story expressing astonishment that somebody had actually managed to get a response from Syms.
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Suedehead2
post Jun 12 2017, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jun 12 2017, 02:06 PM) *
Things you couldn't make up - one of the reasons why the Queen's Speech is being delayed is because the programme for government is written on vellum (goat-skin paper), which takes several days to dry.

I just love the quirks of tradition in British democracy.

The Queen's speech in 2010 and 2015 was scheduled rather later compared with the election date. This one was clearly fixed on the assumption that the Tories would win a comfortable majority and could get on with writing the speech immediately.
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Suedehead2
post Jun 12 2017, 03:31 PM
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QUOTE(common sense @ Jun 12 2017, 04:15 PM) *
When's the Queen's speech then? Thought it was next Monday.

That was the original plan. However, they will want to ensure there is nothing in it that will cause the DUP to change their minds. Basically that means anything that acknowledges that we are no longer in the 19th century.
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vidcapper
post Jun 12 2017, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 12 2017, 04:31 PM) *
That was the original plan. However, they will want to ensure there is nothing in it that will cause the DUP to change their minds. Basically that means anything that acknowledges that we are no longer in the 19th century.


A slight exaggeration, there... rolleyes.gif
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Rooney
post Jun 12 2017, 08:27 PM
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I missed all of this - caught me by surprise I won't say! Fantastic for politics, but certainly a real mess for Brexit.

I said this a couple of weeks ago - the Tories campaign was atrocious, they literally tried to appease everyone. They definitely thought they would increase their majority and let the foot off the gas, for me they tried to appeal to UKIP voters too much and got it wrong. Corbyn did his work and stuck to his principles. For me a big thing was the NHS. Most people in the country care deeply about it and it needs to be kept. The Tories did not say much about it, where as Labour did.

I will say that this is where Corbyn is strongest, on the campaign front. In the Commons he is terrible. If the Labour party want to keep the momentum then Corbyn needs to reshuffle his front benchers and get some of his stronger members in the shadow cabinet. This is the only way I truly think Labour can progress. That said I am sure a few of them will be ready to stab him in the back and take leadership! Dangerous game, but Corbyn needs to play it if he wants to become Prime Minister.

For what it's worth I think there will be another GE next May. I am interesting to see Labour's stance to the hard Brexit that the Tories will still press though..
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Brett-Butler
post Jun 12 2017, 08:32 PM
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Jun 12 2017, 09:27 PM) *
For what it's worth I think there will be another GE next May. I am interesting to see Labour's stance to the hard Brexit that the Tories will still press though..


John McDonnell said on Peston yesterday that Labour would still leave the single market if they were in charge, I believe. Which I think would fall under the "hard" category.
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Rooney
post Jun 12 2017, 08:39 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jun 12 2017, 09:32 PM) *
John McDonnell said on Peston yesterday that Labour would still leave the single market if they were in charge, I believe. Which I think would fall under the "hard" category.


Exactly, which is strange as I'm sure the more Centrist Labour party members would be against this. It comes back up to the argument earlier about Corbyn. Who knows really if Corbyn would have helped the Remain campaign win. But he wanted to Leave so it's a moot point. I'm really pro-EU - I do think Corbyn could (and should) have done more to help the campaign. One of the reasons why I don't like him.
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Suedehead2
post Jun 12 2017, 08:39 PM
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Jun 12 2017, 09:27 PM) *
I missed all of this - caught me by surprise I won't say! Fantastic for politics, but certainly a real mess for Brexit.

I said this a couple of weeks ago - the Tories campaign was atrocious, they literally tried to appease everyone. They definitely thought they would increase their majority and let the foot off the gas, for me they tried to appeal to UKIP voters too much and got it wrong. Corbyn did his work and stuck to his principles. For me a big thing was the NHS. Most people in the country care deeply about it and it needs to be kept. The Tories did not say much about it, where as Labour did.

I will say that this is where Corbyn is strongest, on the campaign front. In the Commons he is terrible. If the Labour party want to keep the momentum then Corbyn needs to reshuffle his front benchers and get some of his stronger members in the shadow cabinet. This is the only way I truly think Labour can progress. That said I am sure a few of them will be ready to stab him in the back and take leadership! Dangerous game, but Corbyn needs to play it if he wants to become Prime Minister.

For what it's worth I think there will be another GE next May. I am interesting to see Labour's stance to the hard Brexit that the Tories will still press though..

The fact that Corbyn's Commons performances have generally been poor needn't matter too much. After all, William Hague was generally said to have performed well in the Commons against Tony Blair but it did him sod all good in the 2001 election. Those of us who have something of an obsession with politics often forget that most people take little notice of it, even in election campaigns.
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Doctor Blind
post Jun 12 2017, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Jun 12 2017, 09:39 PM) *
I do think Corbyn could (and should) have done more to help the campaign. One of the reasons why I don't like him.


You still voted for the Conservatives in 2015 however ROO, and in their manifesto that time around they pledged before the end of 2017 to hold the completely unnecessary referendum on our EU membership. Maybe you should redirect your anger to the complete shitfest of opportunism that is the Conservative party than someone who had a popularity rating of negative twenty-eight and would have had near zero impact in the campaign however hard he had campaigned. The only party committed to not holding a referendum were actually the Labour party.


This post has been edited by Doctor Blind: Jun 12 2017, 08:49 PM
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Rooney
post Jun 12 2017, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 12 2017, 09:39 PM) *
The fact that Corbyn's Commons performances have generally been poor needn't matter too much. After all, William Hague was generally said to have performed well in the Commons against Tony Blair but it did him sod all good in the 2001 election. Those of us who have something of an obsession with politics often forget that most people take little notice of it, even in election campaigns.


Perhaps, but I think it certainly has some impact. It depends which way the media spin it. I know the media did not work too much this time (I would guess a large percentage of The Sun's core readership fall under those that cannot be bothered to vote) but it can.

Interesting times ahead.
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Rooney
post Jun 12 2017, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 12 2017, 09:47 PM) *
You still voted for the Conservatives in 2015 however ROO, and in their manifesto that time around they pledged before the end of 2017 to hold the completely unnecessary referendum on our EU membership. Maybe you should redirect your anger to the complete shitfest of opportunism that is the Conservative party than someone who had a popularity rating of negative twenty-eight and would have had near zero impact in the campaign however hard he had campaigned. The only party committed to not holding a referendum were actually the Labour party.


Like many people, I never actually believed people would vote to Leave.

I still think any Labour support would have helped from the party leader, especially since a lot of the traditional Labour constituencies are the ones who voted so strongly to leave.
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Doctor Blind
post Jun 12 2017, 09:01 PM
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Jun 12 2017, 09:53 PM) *
Like many people, I never actually believed people would vote to Leave.

I still think any Labour support would have helped from the party leader, especially since a lot of the traditional Labour constituencies are the ones who voted so strongly to leave.


65% of Labour voters DID vote for remain, but prey tell me then how those Labour voters in the north suffering from 6 years of Conservative cuts were supposed to vote for this really OPTIMISTIC vision portrayed by Osborne and Cameron? The vision we have it SO GOOD in the EU, things have never been better and if that if you do vote to leave you'll lose.. er well, probably you haven't got much now and the local hospital has closed.. but, well it'll be bad for all those lovely educated people who live in London village who won't get their hideously overpriced coffee served by a massively overqualified Lithuanian barista working for a pittance.
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Rooney
post Jun 12 2017, 09:12 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 12 2017, 10:01 PM) *
65% of Labour voters DID vote for remain, but prey tell me then how those Labour voters in the north suffering from 6 years of Conservative cuts were supposed to vote for this really OPTIMISTIC vision portrayed by Osborne and Cameron? The vision we have it SO GOOD in the EU, things have never been better and if that if you do vote to leave you'll lose.. er well, probably you haven't got much now and the local hospital has closed.. but, well it'll be bad for all those lovely educated people who live in London village who won't get their hideously overpriced coffee served by a massively overqualified Lithuanian barista working for a pittance.


He could have done anything. Sure it might not have worked as you are right in that the Remain campaign was pretty useless. But to just completely sit on the fence and not do anything was pretty poor in my book.
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Silas
post Jun 12 2017, 09:46 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 12 2017, 09:47 PM) *
The only party committed to not holding a referendum were actually the Labour party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32380783

Actually not true. The SNP were viciously against it and unlike Labour expressly wrote in their manifesto that they were against it. Ed promised a referendum if there was a future transfer of power to Brussels
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