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| PREDICT: Ariana Grande - No Tears Left To Cry, Out 20/4, early predictions |
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 Apr 16 2018, 10:09 PM
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#1
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 10 April 2016
Posts: 27,025 User: 23,155       
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So Ariana is reportedly releasing her lead single THIS FRIDAY!
 What are your predictions? Debut #1 Spotify #3 61-80k Hopefully Dua / Drake won’t prevent it from going #1! |
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Apr 16 2018, 10:11 PM
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#2
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 Tangelic
Joined: 30 September 2016
Posts: 6,689 User: 23,643  
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I hope this is big for her - but obviously the song has to be a barnstormer as well! I have faith. Surely destined to be absolutely huge in the UK now.
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Apr 16 2018, 10:17 PM
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#3
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 15 March 2006
Posts: 48,135 User: 223 
     
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At the absolute worst, I think it'll do a 'Look What You Made Me Do' - at best, I could see it being one of the biggest songs of the year and doing 10 weeks at #01 before hitting ACR.
Either way, I think #01 is on lock. |
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Apr 16 2018, 11:14 PM
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#4
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🙄
Joined: 14 February 2010
Posts: 53,654 User: 10,643
      
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I agree.
I can see this era being huge from Ariana, I can see 'One Last Time' re-entering the charts due to BGT and that will only help Ariana's lead single, it wouldn't surprise me if she had a more successful era in the UK in comparison to the US but I do think she will be the highest selling female of 2018. |
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Apr 16 2018, 11:26 PM
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#5
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I found the love, I found the love in me
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 13 December 2007 Posts: 87,435 User: 5,042
  
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Top 5 for both Debut and Spotify and probs 41k-60k
I think a top 3 debut officially is pretty safe. However, I'm not sure it'll be a "straight in at #1" unless the song is actually incredible too (i.e. not something like 'Focus' for example - a bop, but pretty much fans only type of bop) I know her profile has been raised incredibly over here, but I have a feeling that could be big things for her album more than single. But we shall see! Fingers crossed for the absolute best though! Edit: but it also wouldn't surprise me if she ends up doing a Shawn Mendes! Gahhh. Although I guess Mendes is in a similar position to how Ariana was with 'Dangerous Woman', so who knows. |
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Apr 16 2018, 11:28 PM
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#6
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 21 January 2007
Posts: 23,769 User: 2,666
    
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I think top 5 is a safe bet just on her name alone.
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Apr 16 2018, 11:28 PM
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#7
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Break the tension
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 88,912 User: 51
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Considering how her profile is, I am in no doubt this will be a runaway #1.
I think sales could be upwards of 80k, maybe even 100k. This post has been edited by Tawdry Hepburn: Apr 16 2018, 11:29 PM |
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Apr 16 2018, 11:32 PM
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#8
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 10 March 2006
Posts: 19,163 User: 151
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I really think people could be over-estimating this. I know her UK profile is is sky high at the moment but I don't think that automatically translates to a surefire #1. Though if the song is good then I'm happy to be proven wrong.
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Apr 17 2018, 01:58 AM
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#9
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 21 January 2007
Posts: 23,769 User: 2,666
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QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Apr 17 2018, 01:28 AM)  Considering how her profile is, I am in no doubt this will be a runaway #1. I think sales could be upwards of 80k, maybe even 100k. It took me a while to figure it out what profile and why she's been predicted to do this well  .
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Apr 17 2018, 04:55 AM
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#10
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Why do today, what you can do tomorrow?
Joined: 7 November 2008
Posts: 10,466 User: 7,645
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I said Number 1 with a Top 10 Spotify debut. At a guess sales between 40-60k.
If this does look to be a long stayer at Number 1 I’m glad we’ve had a short period of one weekers at the top! |
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Apr 17 2018, 06:52 AM
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#11
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 there's nothing straight about plump Elvis
Pronouns: they/any
Joined: 21 January 2016 Posts: 13,134 User: 22,895 
  
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I don't feel like her profile is THAT high. Sure, she has Manchester, but that was a while ago now, and she wasn't exactly A-list before that.
I would say a top 10 debut, perhaps top 5 if she has decent promo lined up, which is iffy because she'll have the US to focus on as well. She'll struggle to overcome both Drake AND Dua/Calvin for the top spot, might do it after a few weeks depending on what the song is like, but I feel very unlikely to take it off the bat unless the song is REALLY on-trend. |
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Apr 17 2018, 06:59 AM
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#12
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 15 March 2006
Posts: 48,135 User: 223
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I feel like people are underestimating her if anything! The Manchester “thing” was the biggest event that sadly happened last year and the way she handled it was amazing - since then One Last Time has gone on to be a million seller and people don’t have a bad word to say about her. Hype is going to be massive, sales aren’t high so a #01 is more than realistic.
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Apr 17 2018, 07:55 AM
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#13
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 28 September 2017
Posts: 3,964 User: 42,419
 
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Calvin, Drake and Lil Dicky are getting such large numbers on streaming just now I worry that she won't be able to keep up and huge first week sales won't be enough as she'll probabaly stick around the #5 or #6 spot on streaming - Maybe debut at #3 and stick in top 5 for a month
I know her name has grown a lot in the last year but Dangerous woman did only debut and peak at #17 in 2016 |
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Apr 17 2018, 07:57 AM
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#14
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 4 November 2013
Posts: 30,513 User: 20,053
 
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I'll still hold reservations until the actual song premieres, I don't think she's *quite* Taylor level in that she'll debut at #1 based on hype alone & not quality (subjective I know!) but I'm confident it'll be a good song as she's definitely the best of all the US gals in the Charts atm.
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Apr 17 2018, 08:16 AM
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#15
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Gareth T H
Joined: 6 February 2010
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I can’t see this doing anything less than #1 first week. I imagine Ari will do well for downloads so will help out with any streaming difference compared to drake & Calvin/dua.
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Apr 17 2018, 09:39 AM
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#16
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,540 User: 11,746
   
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iTunes #1 first day, with a big lead
official #1 first week Spotify #3 first day, #1 peak 50-60k first week sales 3 weeks at #1 max, depends how good the song is though, this is assuming the song is actually good of course. I think something big will come from the Post Malone album which is supposed to be released at the end of the month (and if not there is still the potential for Drake 'Nice For What' to reclaim #1) so the Ariana song won't do anything more than 3 weeks at #1. |
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Apr 17 2018, 01:59 PM
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#17
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 17 December 2009
Posts: 534 User: 10,226
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#1 iTunes
#2 or #3 chart debut #4 Spotify debut 71k first week sales This post has been edited by mack25: Apr 17 2018, 02:01 PM |
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Apr 17 2018, 02:48 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 January 2014
Posts: 13,449 User: 20,515
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The whole Manchester terrorist attack will ensure she is in the media, whether the song is good or not.
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Apr 20 2018, 04:21 AM
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#19
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 21 January 2007
Posts: 23,769 User: 2,666
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I change my mind...#1 easily!!
 I'm shook!!!
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Apr 20 2018, 04:29 AM
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#20
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 28 April 2008
Posts: 6,082 User: 5,974
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Huge.
This post has been edited by omrimayo: Apr 20 2018, 04:41 AM |
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