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 French Presidential Election 2022 |
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 31st March 2022, 05:40 AM
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#1
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929                 |
April 10th 1st round
April 24th 2nd round Will Macron get a five year term, or will there be a new president of the Fifth Republic? bbc summary, but I think it has its flaws: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60799845 Anyway, runners and riders, my summary (feel free to add your own if you know anything about these candidates I don't): Emmanuel Macron - La Republique En Marche - incumbent, centrist, ideological chameleon (see below meme), currently leading in the polls despite huge spikes of unpopularity throughout his presidency. Appears to have been quite a bit more successful than Hollande or Sarkozy in positioning himself as a leader of Europe over the last 5 years. Will probably win - whether that's a good thing probably depends on the average's Frenchman's satisfaction with the current system. Marine Le Pen - Front National - runner-up at the last election, second in the polls, intensely right-wing but tries to make it somewhat palatable. However still supports Putin, opposes globalisation, wants de-Islamisation and wishes to draw France away from international cooperation (even if she apparently no longer wishes to leave the EU lol), so still f***ing crazy Jean-Luc Mélenchon - La France Insoumise - 4th in 2017, narrowly behind Les Republicains, my very basic and possibly flawed analysis is 'imagine if Corbyn had a spine, and also had left Labour to make a more popular party and Labour instantly lost all of its popularity and Glorious Democratic Socialist Paradise™ at least had a mildly strong following'. He seems pretty good and also seems to be giving the left a bit of the confidence needed to win over voters, I'd like him to win. By which I mean I've read his party's program and while it has some things I disagree with there's a lot of radical changes in there that would be great for a major country to implement. He's been steadily climbing in the polls lately and will probably be hoping to overtake Le Pen to get into the runoff with Macron, which would be a far better and nicer runoff than the expected. Eric Zemmour - Reconquête! - Le Pen but without the pretense of being sane. Fourth in the polls, might split the right-wing vote(?), unironically believes in the Great Replacement, has claimed France's decline is due to the homosexuals, the Muslims and the "feminization of society". Still, he wants to simplify the bureaucratic hell of France...? Valérie Pécresse - Lés Republicains - France's traditional conservatives, apparently decimated by the rise of the roaring Islamophobic nutjobs in Le Pen and Zemmour. At least they're still a solid fifth in the polls... Unlike the Parti Socialiste, the traditional social democrats, who can barely reach 2% in the polls right now, and are behind the Greens, who are still a solid 6th. There's also 5 others on the ballot, various small left and right-wing factions, but they're not expected to go anywhere. |
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31st March 2022, 07:05 AM
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#2
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 thanks for being a sarcy lil bitch
Joined: 25 September 2007
Posts: 79,278 User: 4,397        |
Let’s hope Le Pen doesn’t quite get it this time either. I have no idea how it’s looking like in terms of odds and preliminary polls but no one needs that party in power.
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31st March 2022, 09:06 AM
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#3
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514 
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Melenchon excepted it's like what is your favourite member of Al-Qeada they are so right wing and stoking up anti immigrant sentiment. Zemmour and Le Pen are the worse. One poll is saying that Le Pen is currently running 47% to 53% in a Macron run off.
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31st March 2022, 09:11 AM
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#4
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 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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The vagrancies of the French electoral run-off means that I cannot see anyone other than Macron winning - he’ll likely top the first round with a messily 20% of the vote, then with the other runners likely to have a plateau of people who would even consider voting for them, he’ll likely win the run-off by default. It would make more sense if they followed the transferable vote system a la the London mayoral elections, but then again this is France.
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31st March 2022, 09:48 AM
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#5
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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It is ridiculous that in so many Western democracies they have truly dreadful electoral systems (including USA and UK in that too) to elect President or Prime Minister.
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31st March 2022, 09:49 AM
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#6
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I feel it COMING!
Pronouns: he/they
Joined: 9 October 2018 Posts: 9,247 User: 77,363
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Macron vs Mélenchon is going to be an interesting duel and certainly one that is probably the most unpredictable out of the other duels.
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31st March 2022, 09:59 AM
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#7
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
QUOTE(כן @ Mar 31 2022, 07:05 AM)  Let’s hope Le Pen doesn’t quite get it this time either. I have no idea how it’s looking like in terms of odds and preliminary polls but no one needs that party in power. If it's Macron vs Le Pen as is expected, she could really run him close this time. While I'd definitely put Macron as the most likely winner, it's not one to be complacent over. this system is a bit rubbish, there could easily be a lot of second guessing as to who the opponent would be in the runoff. Mélenchon vs Macron is definitely the one I want to happen even if Mélenchon doesn't ultimately win - more of the right-wing voters than you'd expect could be amenable to a left populist like Mélenchon and breaking them into voting for someone like that would be way better than the alternative. |
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31st March 2022, 10:27 AM
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#8
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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And when this closeness in the polls between Macron and a facist was reported in the Daily Mail article the highest rated comments (with positive votes being around 10 times the number of negative votes) on their website were praising Le Pen over Macron.
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31st March 2022, 06:32 PM
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#9
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 31 2022, 10:11 AM) The vagrancies of the French electoral run-off means that I cannot see anyone other than Macron winning - he’ll likely top the first round with a messily 20% of the vote, then with the other runners likely to have a plateau of people who would even consider voting for them, he’ll likely win the run-off by default. It would make more sense if they followed the transferable vote system a la the London mayoral elections, but then again this is France. That system is even worse as you have to be able to guess which two candidates will make the final round, meaning a lot of second preference votes aren't counteed. |
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31st March 2022, 10:44 PM
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#10
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,165 User: 5,138
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The French system is fixed so a centrist candidate will ALWAYS win!
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7th April 2022, 09:16 PM
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#11
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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Well a new poll out today puts Le Pen in front of Macron in a 2 way run off. Worrying if true.
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8th April 2022, 08:39 AM
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#12
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
QUOTE(Smint @ Apr 7 2022, 09:16 PM) Well a new poll out today puts Le Pen in front of Macron in a 2 way run off. Worrying if true. If Macron loses to this, it's a huge blow for the European project and destroys the idea that neoliberal centrists can strut around on their preordained position atop their end of history presidency, while not fixing problems in society. There are reasons why politicians like Macron are absolutely reviled in some quarters. For all that Marine Le Pen is horrendous she's advocating for lowering the retirement age to 60 and wants to increase the purchasing power of the less well-off. Probably only for white Francien citizens but at least she acknowledges there's a problem for the lower classes and and working poor and wants to make things better for them. Macron? Keep at 65, promising less than half of what Le Pen's campaign is. She's running a good campaign, apparently in part being fairly successful at softening her image. I could see Macron losing, and he would deserve it. And then the far-right would basically dominate Europe what with Orban strengthening his hand and Putin bearing down from outside (and nascent political movements in other countries getting inspired) and we'd be in for some tough times. But fascists find complacent and arrogant neoliberals surprisingly easy to beat at times. As many election results in the last half-decade across the world have shown. |
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8th April 2022, 09:32 AM
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#13
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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Agreed about Macron’s failings and let’s see what the vote this Sunday yields but it’s sad that people would rather go down the reactionary Le Pen route with the demonisation of minorities rather than vote for Melenchon. Yes a win for Le Pen would have wider implications.
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8th April 2022, 10:03 AM
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#14
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Izzy 💀 @ Apr 8 2022, 09:39 AM) If Macron loses to this, it's a huge blow for the European project and destroys the idea that neoliberal centrists can strut around on their preordained position atop their end of history presidency, while not fixing problems in society. There are reasons why politicians like Macron are absolutely reviled in some quarters. For all that Marine Le Pen is horrendous she's advocating for lowering the retirement age to 60 and wants to increase the purchasing power of the less well-off. Probably only for white Francien citizens but at least she acknowledges there's a problem for the lower classes and and working poor and wants to make things better for them. Macron? Keep at 65, promising less than half of what Le Pen's campaign is. She's running a good campaign, apparently in part being fairly successful at softening her image. I could see Macron losing, and he would deserve it. And then the far-right would basically dominate Europe what with Orban strengthening his hand and Putin bearing down from outside (and nascent political movements in other countries getting inspired) and we'd be in for some tough times. But fascists find complacent and arrogant neoliberals surprisingly easy to beat at times. As many election results in the last half-decade across the world have shown. Reducing the pension age to 60 is economic madness. It should be noted that the poll that showed Le Pen ahead also showed Melenchon making up ground on Le Pen. She could yet find herself knocked out on Sunday (fingers crossed). |
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8th April 2022, 10:53 AM
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#15
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 8 2022, 10:03 AM) Reducing the pension age to 60 is economic madness. It should be noted that the poll that showed Le Pen ahead also showed Melenchon making up ground on Le Pen. She could yet find herself knocked out on Sunday (fingers crossed). Perhaps, though it will be attractive to French voters given how important the pension age debate over there is. It's also an example of Le Pen's focus on the economy that is keeping her less desirable qualities from dominating the campaign. Also very much hoping for Melenchon. The polls could yet be unpredictable. (also imagine the banter timeline where Macron just fails to attract anyone for a revote and it's Le Pen vs Melenchon) |
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8th April 2022, 03:31 PM
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#16
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,092 User: 3,474
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Le Penski in power in Paris would spell massive troubles for Europe and for Ukraine as well. France has been a strong pusher of sanctions in comparison to other west EU states, her winning would turn the second largest economy into Hungary
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10th April 2022, 05:57 PM
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#17
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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Really surprising exit poll leaked - .Coupled with another surprise poll which suggested Le Pen is leading with 18-24 year olds, the impossible prospect of NR winning the presidency is more probable than I thought. |
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10th April 2022, 06:14 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,364 User: 23,471
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Not as bad for Macron? |
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10th April 2022, 06:21 PM
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#19
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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Phew! Melenchon not too far off and Zemmour got a low vote so doesn't have too many to gift to Le Pen.
Guess all depends on how much the left stay away or end up going to LePen in 2 weeks. |
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10th April 2022, 07:01 PM
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#20
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,092 User: 3,474
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Still a bit twitchy for the second round but that is a better gap than feared
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