UK local elections 2022, May 5 - England councils, Scotland & Wales authorities |
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28th April 2022, 04:40 AM
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#1
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
Starting off the local elections thread (splitting off from the discussion at the end of the Tory thread) as it's a week out and we still don't have one of those. Even though I won't be voting. But then not everyone in England will be. The main ones this year are 1) in Scotland and Wales for their local authorities. 2) in London 3) in a good swathe of other cities, particularly the ones that elect their councils in thirds. This lot were last contested in 2018 and that was a very strong showing for Labour at the height of Corbynism, and these councils are naturally friendlier to Labour in general. However, Labour are still looking good ahead of the Tories this time. Labour are ahead in the polls by upto 12 points at the moment but not sure how this will translate at local elections in terms of votes. I’m hoping the Tories will lose lots of seats but I’m not confident that Labour will do brilliantly. There is still an issue over how the party is perceived among the wider public in terms of their electability. Given we have had nearly 15 terrible years of the Tories, resulting in austerity, the cost of living crisis, partygate and the shambolic handling of covid, I would have expected Labour to be doing much better to be honest. I suspect it will be far closer at a general election and most probably result in a hung Parliament. One would hope if this was the outcome, Labour would forge an alliance with other parties to keep the Tories out. Potentially, but also potentially not: Labour are starting to do better than the Conservatives on everything, at least in how the wider public view them. I don't know any specific councils where they might gain control but Tory losses and Labour gains seem the likely outcome. |
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28th April 2022, 08:39 AM
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#2
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514 |
Is this in all of London? Haven't received a poll card. I'll vote Labour as they are very strong here in Camden. Ah so not many non-urban Southern seats so we can't watch a potential Tory collapse in some of these areas aka 'Blue Wall'
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28th April 2022, 08:52 AM
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#3
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
I think it's every London district, yes.
This is how it looks for Camden. As ever, information about the details of the locals is pretty hard to come by but I've been impressed by Wikipedia's increasing coverage of the details at least after the fact over the years. There's a few places with an election where a Blue Wall swing could be found - this letter about a councillor in Dominic Raab's constituency is going pretty viral. But those places will be the ones that elect in thirds and so only minimal swing is up for grabs, and definitely more of the councils up this year are Labour strongholds in cities. |
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28th April 2022, 10:15 AM
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#4
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514 |
I'd like to think that whatever happens next election the truly awful Dominic Raab and Steve Baker are toast. Hell even our PM doesn't exactly live in a safe seat.
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28th April 2022, 10:45 AM
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#5
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there's nothing straight about plump Elvis
Pronouns: they/any
Joined: 21 January 2016 Posts: 13,146 User: 22,895 |
I will be changing my vote to Green this year, largely thanks to campaigning from the local candidate.
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28th April 2022, 04:57 PM
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#6
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The owls are not what they seem
Pronouns: He/him
Joined: 11 July 2009 Posts: 37,133 User: 9,232 |
This will be my first election at my new address of Bromley town, which sadly has been a Tory stronghold for quite some time and I can't find anything to suggest a forecast for change or anything. I usually go with Green party as my default, but don't think we have any standing here for may need to be Labour/Lib-Dem.
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28th April 2022, 05:14 PM
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#7
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272 |
The Tories are in full expectation management mode. They are encouraging predictions that the results will be catastrophic for them so that they can say they did better than expected when the results are merely bad. The Telegraph had a particularly inaccurate forecast recently where they were predicting Labour to gain control of a large number of councils. In some cases where one-thiord of the seats are being contested, Labour would have to win every single one of those seats for the predicted gain to be achieved.
Labour did reasonably well in there seats when they were contested four years ago. They are defending around 1,000 more seats than the Tories. The Lib Dems will be looking to make gains in the south-east where, as Iz said, only one-third of the seats are up for grabs. The Greens should pick up seats there as well. They have been doing well in local byelections in recent months. There are no regular elections in Brighton & Hove but there is a byelection in my ward. It is one of the few wards in B&H where the Greens are very weak. I even beat a Green candidate in the last election despite doing no campaigning. |
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28th April 2022, 05:15 PM
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#8
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,093 User: 3,474 |
From memory not all of the elections in May will be using the same electoral system either, to simplify matters.
Scotland will be using STV (not the TV channel) for its votes |
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28th April 2022, 05:17 PM
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#9
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🙄
Joined: 14 February 2010
Posts: 53,654 User: 10,643 |
could these votes signal the end of bojo? I'm sure if they lose a lot of local elections there will be a no vote confidence.
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28th April 2022, 08:28 PM
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#10
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342 |
Will Boris being the first sitting PM to receive a fixed penalty notice be enough to persuade my patch of suburban Hampshire to vote for people other than the Conservatives?
My current suspicion is no but hopefully plenty of other places can see sense! |
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28th April 2022, 10:00 PM
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#11
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138 |
The results on the SW of England councils will be interesting to watch to see if the LDs can regain a foothold as Labour need that to happen to do well nationally imo!
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28th April 2022, 10:37 PM
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#12
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,562 User: 10,030 |
Interested to see how the London seats go. The last time Labour had a 15% lead over the conservatives vote-wise. Recent polling suggests they could have a 25-30% lead this time round.
Also interested to see how the Lib Dems and Greens do. |
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29th April 2022, 08:51 AM
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#13
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514 |
The results on the SW of England councils will be interesting to watch to see if the LDs can regain a foothold as Labour need that to happen to do well nationally imo! Well disappointingly Labour are directly attacking the Lib Dems for their sensible, realistic drug policies in a set of ads. Starmer's lot do make it difficult don't they to fully embrace them... |
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29th April 2022, 11:50 PM
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#14
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,166 User: 5,138 |
Well disappointingly Labour are directly attacking the Lib Dems for their sensible, realistic drug policies in a set of ads. Starmer's lot do make it difficult don't they to fully embrace them... I can understand this though as a lot of red wall towns have been destroyed by drug use and dealers so it goes down well not to support left wing drug policies. |
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3rd May 2022, 11:11 PM
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#15
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514 |
Wouldn't it be chronic austerity and underdevelopment over 12 years of Tory rule that has destroyed red wall towns? Not that I can pretend to relate to the residents of those places, especially the ones who voted Tory/Brexit at all (trying to not be disrepectful).
I physcially can't watch the monstosity on TV but reading about it, looks like Johnson's GMB interview was pathetic as usual with lies about introducing a Freedom Pass for pensioners (It wasn't him and besides it was in the context of a pensioner who had to ride buses all day to stay warm due to cost of living, so an absurd thing to say) and not knowing who Lorraine Kelly was so out of touch. So thankfully not a boost for him. On to predictions, the Guardian are saying "One senior Lib Dem strategist said the party was looking at possible gains in the new Somerset unitary authority, Oxford, Wimbledon and Woking in the south, as well as Westmoreland and Hull in the north." If the Lib Dems do well then maybe they can be talked about seriously and maybe just maybe there could be a genuine Progressive Alliance for next election (and I know that some would say Starmer + Davey aren't exactly progressive but beggars can't be choosers). The Greens will fall on the sword in most places to help them. I just don't think Labour can do this on their own and the Lib Dems can take the pressure off and it may mean that the SNP independence threat doesn't become a factor. Certainly Thursday's elections will be extremely interesting. |
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3rd May 2022, 11:57 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 20 November 2014
Posts: 12,679 User: 21,386 |
They didn’t send me a letter with a voting card to go and vote
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4th May 2022, 05:37 AM
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#17
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272 |
Wouldn't it be chronic austerity and underdevelopment over 12 years of Tory rule that has destroyed red wall towns? Not that I can pretend to relate to the residents of those places, especially the ones who voted Tory/Brexit at all (trying to not be disrepectful). I physcially can't watch the monstosity on TV but reading about it, looks like Johnson's GMB interview was pathetic as usual with lies about introducing a Freedom Pass for pensioners (It wasn't him and besides it was in the context of a pensioner who had to ride buses all day to stay warm due to cost of living, so an absurd thing to say) and not knowing who Lorraine Kelly was so out of touch. So thankfully not a boost for him. On to predictions, the Guardian are saying "One senior Lib Dem strategist said the party was looking at possible gains in the new Somerset unitary authority, Oxford, Wimbledon and Woking in the south, as well as Westmoreland and Hull in the north." If the Lib Dems do well then maybe they can be talked about seriously and maybe just maybe there could be a genuine Progressive Alliance for next election (and I know that some would say Starmer + Davey aren't exactly progressive but beggars can't be choosers). The Greens will fall on the sword in most places to help them. I just don't think Labour can do this on their own and the Lib Dems can take the pressure off and it may mean that the SNP independence threat doesn't become a factor. Certainly Thursday's elections will be extremely interesting. I checked the Woking situation a few days ago as I used to live there. One of the seats up for grabs was won by the Tories by just ten votes four years ago. The ward has been largely Lib Dem for over 30 years, so that should be a gain which would make the Lib Dems the largest group on the council. Further gains would be more difficult as the Tories are defending large majorities. They didn’t send me a letter with a voting card to go and vote Assuming you have elections (not everywhere does), you don't need a polling card to vote. |
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4th May 2022, 01:44 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514 |
They didn’t send me a letter with a voting card to go and vote Funnily enough, I didn't receive a voting card (first time ever I don't recall getting one) but I used this site to confirm where I can vote. https://wheredoivote.co.uk/ |
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4th May 2022, 06:00 PM
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#19
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272 |
The Tories are spinning that they may lose as many as 800 seats tomorrow. As they are only defending around 1,300, that seems unlikely. Losses of that magnitude would be truly catastrophic. One of the worst Tory performances I can remember was the 1993 county elections when they lost just under 500 seats (out of over 8,000 they were defending).
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5th May 2022, 12:28 AM
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#20
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there's nothing straight about plump Elvis
Pronouns: they/any
Joined: 21 January 2016 Posts: 13,146 User: 22,895 |
SNP card through the door really wasn't up to much. They're campaigning on being the incumbent.
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