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 European Election Thread 2019, EU, baby. |
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 1st May 2019, 04:58 PM
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#61
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 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 
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Following on from this, as he is a candidate, does that mean in the run-up to the elections that radio stations can't play any songs by Longpigs, as it would count as preferential treatment of an electoral candidate, or would they have to name every other candidate running in that region every time they are played on the radio? If that's the case, then it would mean that 6music would have to find an extra hour of music to fill their playlists every week, given how much they love playing that band.
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8th May 2019, 05:14 AM
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#62
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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So who will you be voting for in the Euro elections?
It will be the Brexit Party for me - surprise, surprise. 
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8th May 2019, 07:24 AM
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#63
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929               |
There are great-looking SW candidates for the first picks of both Green and Lib Dems in the South West (and a lot of ‘celebrities’ in other parties, Anne Widdecombe, BoJo’s sister, Carl Of Swindon, feels really weird to have so many big names).
I’m going to be voting Lib Dems and hopefully they and the Greens can each get a place. They just missed out on getting one each last time, it’s possible. that’s another thing, predictions for each constituency, go. |
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8th May 2019, 08:46 AM
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#64
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ May 8 2019, 08:24 AM)  that’s another thing, predictions for each constituency, go. Given the enormous range of parties standing, I couldn't even hazard a guess.  |
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8th May 2019, 11:20 AM
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#65
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,856 User: 17,376
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Based on my friends and family who express an opinion farage fan club is going to slaughter.
I will bote libdem as always. There is no point voting any other way in dorset unless you love lying farage or lying tories. |
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8th May 2019, 12:36 PM
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#66
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 Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,131 User: 4,718
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Voting in England (West Midlands because my mum lives on the wrong side of the Derbyshire/Staffordshire border x) for the first time, otherwise it would've been the SNP.
I want to see regional polling before I sent off my vote. I'd like to vote for the Greens but if they don't stand much of a chance of winning a seat there then I'll go for the Lib Dems. |
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8th May 2019, 01:09 PM
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#67
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Harve @ May 8 2019, 01:36 PM) Voting in England (West Midlands because my mum lives on the wrong side of the Derbyshire/Staffordshire border x) for the first time, otherwise it would've been the SNP. I want to see regional polling before I sent off my vote. I'd like to vote for the Greens but if they don't stand much of a chance of winning a seat there then I'll go for the Lib Dems. I doubt there will be any regional polling. The best you can hope for is a regional breakdown of a national poll. However, the numbers in each region would be very low and, therefore, not entirely reliable. One such breakdown put the Lib Dems in first place in London. I would be surprised (although also delighted) if that happened. |
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8th May 2019, 01:39 PM
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#68
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
QUOTE(vidcapper @ May 8 2019, 08:46 AM) Given the enormous range of parties standing, I couldn't even hazard a guess. Hard at the moment as we haven't got post-local election polls but as an example, for the South West, which has 6 MEPs elected. Last time they elected 2 UKIP, 2 Conservative, 1 Labour and 1 Green, Cons and UKIP getting a second as half of their vote total was more than the Liberal Democrats got overall, and indeed more than either Greens or Labour. Now, I would expect most of those UKIP votes to be migrating to Brexit, and the Conservative votes... who knows? I doubt heavily either of those parties will get two MEPs again - which thankfully has the side-effect of keeping a certain despicable Youtuber out of power. Anyway, I'll plug in the most recent poll from YouGov, the one with BP on 30%, into the turnout numbers from the South West (rounding up to 1.6 million, it was 1.54 in 2014 and 1.44 in 2009 so that's a fair increase, not even counting that this election will likely see higher turnout) and see how it goes. Brexit Party 480k (240k when counting their second, 160k when counting their potential third) Labour 336k (168k for their second) Conservative 208k Lib Dem 160k Greens 144k Change UK 144k UKIP 64k Which gives Brexit Party 2 MEPs, Labour 2, Conservative 1 and then one of either Brexit or Liberal Democrats. Now I didn't account for Labour likely getting a lot less than that, it's the South West after all, so this is less of an accurate prediction and more of a reminder of how d'Hondt works. And if there really is that much of a spoiler effect on the Remain parties going on then I'll be quite sad. But rationally, comparing to last time's, the UKIP voters should mostly transplant to Brexit, if the Conservatives do no real campaigning their high levels of votes last time should go somewhere between Brexit, Lib Dems and Change UK and Labour might be competing with Greens. So I'm going to go with: Brexit 3 Labour 1 Conservative 1 Lib Dem 1 as my SW prediction. |
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8th May 2019, 02:33 PM
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#69
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272
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The Farage Fanclub is a very odd sort of party. First, it has no members. It only has "supporters" who have to pay £25 for the privilege.
Those supporters don't really get much for their £25. They have no role in deciding policy - that is all done by Then there is the matter of funding. It has been reported that somebody has made a donation of a six-figure sum. However, under Electoral Commission rules, the source of that money doesn't have to be declared until June. Indeed, because of the timing of the "party" registering with the Electoral Commission, none of their donors needs to be identified before June. Of course if, as Farage claims, there is nothing at all iffy about the source, there is nothing to stop him disclosing it now. |
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8th May 2019, 02:47 PM
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#70
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
Their donations were, from the start suspicious. Remember the '£750,000 in donations online, all in small sums of less than £500'? Conveniently, £500 is the amount one needs to disclose a donor's information, and sums under that are completely private. How convenient.
Great twitter thread on the subject: |
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8th May 2019, 02:50 PM
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#71
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
I crunched the numbers for that Yougov poll countrywide by the way, using estimated turnout numbers to simulate these elections in a haphazard way. Unlike with what I did above, I used YouGov's regional stats to differentiate the regions.
All-in-all, it comes out to: Brexit Party - 29 Labour - 16 Conservatives - 9 Lib Dems - 6 Greens - 5 Change UK - 2 SNP - 2 UKIP - 0 I mean, subject to change of course and somebody probably did something official with those numbers when the poll came out but at least it's visualised for me how each of the different regions is likely to go. |
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8th May 2019, 03:14 PM
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#72
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272
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I suspect the ChUKas will end up with none. A combination of last week's local election results and the fact that the social media battle seems to be between Lib Dems and Greens will probably see ChUK (or whatever they are called now) squeezed out.
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8th May 2019, 05:23 PM
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#73
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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My own predictions for Great Britain are
Labour to come out on top, with seat numbers in the mid 20s Brexit Party to be close runners up, with their seat numbers comfortably in the 20s Conservatives well behind, with seat numbers in the mid 10s. Lib Dems, Greens & Change UK to have single digit seat numbers, in that order, then SNP to win 3 seats in Scotland Ukip somehow managing 2 seats. As for Northern Ireland, the leaders of three of the firmly-remain parties have done what ChUK members didn't do and put their money where their mouth is and put themselves forward for the European elections, with the SDLP, Alliance & Green Party NI leaders all in contention (although in fairness, it's not a direct comparison as all three are MLAs rather than MPs, although Naomi Long was previously one). One interesting candidate is the Conservative candidate - they usually don't run many candidates here, and when they do they rarely get enough votes to win the deposit. Their candidate is Amdeep Singh Bhogal, who is a Sikh of Indian descent, which is not the sort of candidate that usually contests elections here in Northern Ireland. My predictions for NI are for the 3 MEPs elected to be from Sinn Fein, DUP & Alliance, with the UUP losing their seat. |
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10th May 2019, 06:47 AM
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#74
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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10th May 2019, 09:06 AM
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#75
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
It is indeed ridiculous. Nigel Farage has racked up his record 33rd appearance on Question Time after complaining about a lack of coverage (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-storie...-time-1-6040398), then summarily on said show could not name a country that trades solely on WTO rules (https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/question-...xample-blunder/).
And then over here we have Guido f***ing Fawkes thinking he can dismiss a professor of clinical psychology (who might have the danger of actually knowing what he’s talking about on the issue of subliminal psychology) by using the loaded language of ‘spluttered’. |
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10th May 2019, 09:12 AM
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#76
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
Not that the logo itself should be banned really even if it is yet another example of how manipulative and shady this whole party is, but, you know, how people still listen to what that man says in 2019 is baffling.
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10th May 2019, 01:34 PM
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#77
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ May 10 2019, 10:12 AM) Not that the logo itself should be banned really even if it is yet another example of how manipulative and shady this whole party is, but, you know, how people still listen to what that man says in 2019 is baffling. Or, the other parties are just jealous that they didn't think of it first... 
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10th May 2019, 01:43 PM
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#78
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,422 User: 12,929 |
Seems like they put all their thinking into the logo then, because they didn't think about how to draft either a manifesto or be a party one can join.
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10th May 2019, 05:24 PM
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#79
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ May 10 2019, 02:43 PM) Seems like they put all their thinking into the logo then, because they didn't think about how to draft either a manifesto or be a party one can join. As I've said before, the Brexit Party's persuasion tactics have been second to none since they've started, and the quoted psychologist isn't the only one who's picked up on that. Nigel Farage has said that his aim is to win the election, and so far he has been bust ticking all the boxes to hit that target (although I still can't personally see them topping the poll). The fact the party doesn't have proper policies or a manifesto means nothing, it is not an impediment to them winning (if anything, it would be a hindrance). Change UK on the other hand have been, and continue to be woeful, and any attack that they or any Remain alliance party can make on Farage, just won't stick. They are making the same mistakes they made in 2015 and 2016, and more or less making the exact same arguments against him as well - they didn't stick then, and they won't stick now. The definition of insanity etc. Remain parties should be going more for the emotional arguments rather than the rational arguments if they want to prosper in the election, especially in areas that had voted leave. Whether they are able to is another question. |
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10th May 2019, 05:44 PM
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#80
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,679 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ May 10 2019, 06:24 PM) As I've said before, the Brexit Party's persuasion tactics have been second to none since they've started, and the quoted psychologist isn't the only one who's picked up on that. Nigel Farage has said that his aim is to win the election, and so far he has been bust ticking all the boxes to hit that target (although I still can't personally see them topping the poll). The fact the party doesn't have proper policies or a manifesto means nothing, it is not an impediment to them winning (if anything, it would be a hindrance). Change UK on the other hand have been, and continue to be woeful, and any attack that they or any Remain alliance party can make on Farage, just won't stick. They are making the same mistakes they made in 2015 and 2016, and more or less making the exact same arguments against him as well - they didn't stick then, and they won't stick now. The definition of insanity etc. Remain parties should be going more for the emotional arguments rather than the rational arguments if they want to prosper in the election, especially in areas that had voted leave. Whether they are able to is another question. This is where the SDP showed far more political nous than ChUK. There was more to the deal with the Liberal Party than simply the fact that standing against each other made no electoral sense. It also meant that the SDP could benefit from the Liberals' superior campaigning skills. Most of the MPs = and many of the activists - had only ever worked in safe Labour seats. Their campaigning style - such as it was - reflected that. The Liberals, OTOH, had lots of experience in gaining seats from other parties. Without that experience, the SDP would soon have sunk without trace and the Liberals would probably have continued to make only modest gains in general elections. ChUK, by refusing any sort of co-operation, seem to be trying to set a new record for shooting themselves in the foot. |
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