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Brett-Butler
post Aug 23 2013, 04:13 PM
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It looks as if the economy is starting to look rosy again, as the increase in GDP is better than had previously been thought. From the BBC:

QUOTE
Economic growth in the UK during the second quarter of the year has been revised up to 0.7% by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The initial estimate, released in July, suggested gross domestic product (GDP) - the UK's economic output - had risen by 0.6% from the previous quarter.

The ONS said the revision reflected small upward adjustments to the estimated output of several industries.

The data also showed that export demand played a major role in driving growth.

Compared with a year ago, GDP in the three months to June was 1.5% higher.

The latest revision adds to evidence that the UK economic recovery may finally be gaining momentum after almost four years of stagnation since the 2008-09 recession ended.

The 0.7% rate matches the pace recorded during the third quarter of 2012, when the economy was buoyed by the London Olympics, which was itself the fastest growth rate since 2010.

However, the ONS cautioned that the current rate of economic growth was still well below the rate experienced during previous recoveries from recessions since 1945 - during which the economy has typically enjoyed a short burst of growth as it caught up with its pre-recession level.


So should we be celebrating this news, or is it too soon to break out the bottles? Do you feel this is the start of the major recovery, or a momentary blip before the bottom falls out again?
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Suedehead2
post Aug 23 2013, 04:23 PM
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Obviously any growth is good news and the likelihood is that the headline figures will remain positive. However, there are a number of caveats.

1) Growth remains fairly sluggish. At this rate the economy will finally reach the pre-crisis level around the time of the next election.

2) There is evidence that growth is heavily concentrated in London and the South-East with the rest of the country making little or no progress.

3) Wages for most people are still going up by less than inflation. One of the main problems in the last five years has been a lack of demand. With real incomes still in decline, that is likely to continue.

4) The population is increasing. GDP per head is roughly static.
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Sandro Raniere
post Aug 23 2013, 04:26 PM
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Great news and a strong vindication of tory policy

Housing market is booming therefore people feel they have more money and are more prepared to spend in the high street, plus more people are in work than ever before and have more money to spend.

A tory victory at the next election with a healthy working majority is a 95% certainty right now i would say

Housing market booming
Car sales best for years
More people in work than ever before
Exports booming
Employers more confident
Record low mortgage rates
One of the worlds best economists running the BOE

Only tories can be trusted on the economy
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Sandro Raniere
post Aug 23 2013, 04:29 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 23 2013, 05:23 PM) *
3) Wages for most people are still going up by less than inflation. One of the main problems in the last five years has been a lack of demand. With real incomes still in decline, that is likely to continue.


The value of their house going up and the rate it is doing so more than makes up for depressed wage levels

It is a housing market lead recovery
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Suedehead2
post Aug 23 2013, 05:33 PM
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 23 2013, 05:29 PM) *
The value of their house going up and the rate it is doing so more than makes up for depressed wage levels

It is a housing market lead recovery

You can't spend the extra value of your house though so that is a silly point. As for the idea of a housing market led recovery, that is a positively frightening thought. Every house price boom is inevitably followed by a crash. Besides, how does it help people trying to buy their first home?
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Suedehead2
post Aug 23 2013, 05:40 PM
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 23 2013, 05:26 PM) *
Great news and a strong vindication of tory policy

Housing market is booming therefore people feel they have more money and are more prepared to spend in the high street, plus more people are in work than ever before and have more money to spend.

A tory victory at the next election with a healthy working majority is a 95% certainty right now i would say

Housing market booming
Car sales best for years
More people in work than ever before
Exports booming
Employers more confident
Record low mortgage rates
One of the worlds best economists running the BOE

Only tories can be trusted on the economy

See my other reply for why a housing market boom is bad news in the medium to long term.

Record low mortgage rates - inherited from the last government. It is also bad news for savers (there are far more savers than borrowers) and for people about to retire who face record low annuity rates.

More people in work - debatable. Besides, far too many of them are on minimum wage, zero-hours contracts or both. Many of them are also under-employed. They are working part-time but would like to work full-time.

The new governor of the Bank of England - let's wait and see. For the money he's being paid he'd better be bloody good.

Car sales the best for years - they aren't British cars so the effect on the economy is limited.

TRust the Tories on the economy? Never. Who deregulated the banks? Who was in charge when the pound collapsed and interest rates soared in 1992? The national debt more than doubled while Major was PM. Until the banks screwed the economy, that charge could not be levelled at Labour.
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Sandro Raniere
post Aug 23 2013, 05:47 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 23 2013, 06:33 PM) *
You can't spend the extra value of your house though so that is a silly point. As for the idea of a housing market led recovery, that is a positively frightening thought. Every house price boom is inevitably followed by a crash. Besides, how does it help people trying to buy their first home?


You can though by remortgaging, people seeing the value of their house can remortgage to buy a top of the range car or to start a business or whatever

Increased value of a house is a bit of an illusion as people have to pay more for the house they buy next but it makes people FEEL they are in the money, when they feel they are in the money they are more likely to buy a new car or a new iamspamamispamwhoamspam or a new 60" 3D tv all of which helps the economy and the job market

First time buyers have more help that ever before to get on the housing ladder
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Suedehead2
post Aug 23 2013, 06:47 PM
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 23 2013, 06:47 PM) *
You can though by remortgaging, people seeing the value of their house can remortgage to buy a top of the range car or to start a business or whatever

Increased value of a house is a bit of an illusion as people have to pay more for the house they buy next but it makes people FEEL they are in the money, when they feel they are in the money they are more likely to buy a new car or a new iamspamamispamwhoamspam or a new 60" 3D tv all of which helps the economy and the job market

First time buyers have more help that ever before to get on the housing ladder

Have you really learned nothing from the last five years or so? The banks got into trouble partly because they had lent money to people who couldn't afford it. You seem to be advocating a repeat dose. Interest rates will not remain at their current level for ever. When they go up it is in all our interests that we don't have another lead of people unable to afford their mortgage.

FIrst time buyers do not need the sort of help offered by Osbourne's dangerous, madcap scheme. There are two sides to the equation - supply and demand. What the market needs is increased supply even if that does mean slower growth in prices.

People don't feel better off, largely because they are not. People on zero-hours contracts are not going to spend money on a new kithcen if they don't know how much income they will have in the coming months. Similarly, somebody uncertain whether their job will last will be careful how much they spend.
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Sandro Raniere
post Aug 23 2013, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 23 2013, 07:47 PM) *
Have you really learned nothing from the last five years or so? The banks got into trouble partly because they had lent money to people who couldn't afford it. You seem to be advocating a repeat dose. Interest rates will not remain at their current level for ever. When they go up it is in all our interests that we don't have another lead of people unable to afford their mortgage.

FIrst time buyers do not need the sort of help offered by Osbourne's dangerous, madcap scheme. There are two sides to the equation - supply and demand. What the market needs is increased supply even if that does mean slower growth in prices.

People don't feel better off, largely because they are not. People on zero-hours contracts are not going to spend money on a new kithcen if they don't know how much income they will have in the coming months. Similarly, somebody uncertain whether their job will last will be careful how much they spend.


Someone in Doncaster or Swansea will feel less secure about their future than someone in Guildford or Chipping Norton yes, the massive house price rises are very South East centric but as someone who believes in trickle down economics i believe the benefits will eventually find their way to other parts of the country albeit at a much slower pace.

It is a risky strategy by Osbourne but Carney is a proud man, could have picked any banking job in the world but he chose BOE, the fact someone like him has confidence in our country should be a good sign

You can't pull the wool over the eyes of someone like Carney
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Suedehead2
post Aug 23 2013, 07:38 PM
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 23 2013, 07:56 PM) *
Someone in Doncaster or Swansea will feel less secure about their future than someone in Guildford or Chipping Norton yes, the massive house price rises are very South East centric but as someone who believes in trickle down economics i believe the benefits will eventually find their way to other parts of the country albeit at a much slower pace.

It is a risky strategy by Osbourne but Carney is a proud man, could have picked any banking job in the world but he chose BOE, the fact someone like him has confidence in our country should be a good sign

You can't pull the wool over the eyes of someone like Carney

Would you like to show me an economy where the trickle down theory has worked? It's fine in theory but is simply does not work. The people at the top have already got more money than they know what to do with. Giving them even more will not make them spend more. It is the people at the bottom of the income scale who will spend any extra money they get. Instead this bunch of buffoons is taking money away from those people so they end up spending even less.

Economics is known as an inexact science because of the number of unknown factors. The biggest of those is human behaviour. Both Communism and trickle down theory are fine in principle but fail because of one human trait - greed. Under Communism too many people end up worse off so it is almost impossible for a Communist regime to win successive democratic elections. Trickle down theory does not work because the wealthiest just keep more money for themselves.
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Sandro Raniere
post Aug 23 2013, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 23 2013, 08:38 PM) *
Would you like to show me an economy where the trickle down theory has worked? It's fine in theory but is simply does not work. The people at the top have already got more money than they know what to do with. Giving them even more will not make them spend more. It is the people at the bottom of the income scale who will spend any extra money they get. Instead this bunch of buffoons is taking money away from those people so they end up spending even less.

Economics is known as an inexact science because of the number of unknown factors. The biggest of those is human behaviour. Both Communism and trickle down theory are fine in principle but fail because of one human trait - greed. Under Communism too many people end up worse off so it is almost impossible for a Communist regime to win successive democratic elections. Trickle down theory does not work because the wealthiest just keep more money for themselves.


Ronald Reagan was the master of trickle down economics and is widely hailed among Americans as the greatest post war president, if i remember correctly he had the highest approval rating of any president and a poll for the year 2000 put him the 3rd greatest president ever, so he must have done something right.

The more money the wealthy have the more cars they buy (jobs for car factories, jobs for suppliers, for car showrooms etc) the more holidays they buy (jobs for travel agents, jobs for airlines, jobs for hotel chains) the more property they buy (jobs for household goods companies like John Lewis)

I am in favour of a 'living wage' in principle but am against the idea of screwing over the 'wealthy' to pay for it as if they close their wallets then the more 'poor' will lose their jobs altogether
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Harve
post Aug 23 2013, 09:24 PM
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 23 2013, 06:56 PM) *
Someone in Doncaster or Swansea will feel less secure about their future than someone in Guildford or Chipping Norton yes, the massive house price rises are very South East centric but as someone who believes in trickle down economics i believe the benefits will eventually find their way to other parts of the country albeit at a much slower pace.

It is a risky strategy by Osbourne but Carney is a proud man, could have picked any banking job in the world but he chose BOE, the fact someone like him has confidence in our country should be a good sign

You can't pull the wool over the eyes of someone like Carney

I think you're misunderstanding even the theory of trickle down, regardless of the extent to which it happens or not. A booming south-east should benefit the rest of the country if there's a good infrastructure (for minimal movement cost of capital), equal health and education standards with an equally skilled workforce (labour productivity), equal demand on the rest of the UK and lower operating costs to encourage companies to expand or even relocate out of the south-east. Only the latter is likely to be mostly true.
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Qassändra
post Aug 23 2013, 09:50 PM
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 23 2013, 05:26 PM) *
A tory victory at the next election with a healthy working majority is a 95% certainty right now i would say

Have you really learned nothing from tossing these silly predictions around last time? A Tory majority isn't out of the question. A healthy working majority (say, 30+) would be pretty bloody remarkable. It'd be enough of an achievement taking 20 seats off of Labour that they didn't win last time - where on earth would they get the other thirty from? 1983 is the only example going of a government increasing its majority - and bad as he may be at times, Ed Miliband is no Michael Foot and he isn't presiding over a party flooding en masse to another.


This post has been edited by Cassandra: Aug 23 2013, 09:51 PM
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Silas
post Aug 23 2013, 09:59 PM
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 23 2013, 05:26 PM) *
Great news and a strong vindication of tory policy

Housing market is booming therefore people feel they have more money and are more prepared to spend in the high street, plus more people are in work than ever before and have more money to spend.

A tory victory at the next election with a healthy working majority is a 95% certainty right now i would say

Housing market booming
Car sales best for years
More people in work than ever before
Exports booming
Employers more confident
Record low mortgage rates
One of the worlds best economists running the BOE

Only tories can be trusted on the economy

Oh LORD Craig! This is just ridiculous from top to bottom.

For a start, Youth unemployment is still over 1m (Highest levels EVER) and Unemployment is still miles above pre-recession levels. It's lower now than it has been for like 15months but no more. Trying to claim otherwise is straight up mentally challenged as it's been headline news for YEARS.

As for the rest, I'll take that with a healthy dose of 'compared to levels at the depths of the recession and still years off pre-recession levels'.

We avoided a triple dip thanks to some figure 'adjustments'. I wouldn't trust the tories with an empty, disused cardboard box.
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Suedehead2
post Aug 23 2013, 10:06 PM
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 23 2013, 10:20 PM) *
Ronald Reagan was the master of trickle down economics and is widely hailed among Americans as the greatest post war president, if i remember correctly he had the highest approval rating of any president and a poll for the year 2000 put him the 3rd greatest president ever, so he must have done something right.

The more money the wealthy have the more cars they buy (jobs for car factories, jobs for suppliers, for car showrooms etc) the more holidays they buy (jobs for travel agents, jobs for airlines, jobs for hotel chains) the more property they buy (jobs for household goods companies like John Lewis)

I am in favour of a 'living wage' in principle but am against the idea of screwing over the 'wealthy' to pay for it as if they close their wallets then the more 'poor' will lose their jobs altogether

Trickle down was a failure in the US just as much as it was here. In the last 30 years both the US and UK economies have expanded substantially. However, most people have seen little or no increase in their real income (after inflation). The extra welath generated has ended up almost entirely in the pockets of the people who were already wealthy.

Reagan was a dreadful president with brilliant PR. He had an image as an amiable old duffer but that disguised a poor economic record and a deradful foreign policy - remember Nicaragua and the Iran-Contra affair?
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Doctor Blind
post Aug 24 2013, 08:18 AM
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Well #1: you can't trust the Tories with the economy just look at Black Wednesday in 1992 - they didn't have a clue. #2: Since 2010 when GDP was actually on the increase, their implementation of austerity has been shown to be too extreme, caused a massive drop-off in GDP in 2011/2012 (which they blamed on the weather - HA!) though admittedly they have reduced the deficit by around 20%. #3: we are NOT all in this together - since 2008 the top 10% have become richer and the top 1% have become substantially richer whilst at the same time middle to low income families will not see their incomes back to pre-2008 levels until 2030 (adjusted for inflation).

I am still very pessimistic about the economy, yes 0.7% growth is positive news but it is a very slow increase and when you look at previous recoveries from recessions. Unemployment is pretty static at the moment with only minor falls registered no doubt from part-time work or zero hour contracts and the fact that oil prices are back to rising again suggests that we may see another slowing across the Eurozone. Oil prices are up another 10% since June so that is only going to fuel greater inflation once again. Wages are falling sharply in real-terms with inflation continuing to rise ahead of pay increases, and since 2010 we have one of the highest wage falls (in real-terms) across Europe, worse than Spain!!

QUOTE
Cameron has overseen 35 consecutive months of falling real wages, more than any other prime minister on record, and spending power has dropped in every month but one under coalition rule as price rises outstrip wage increases.


And to settle a final point- the housing market is not 'booming', it has risen 3% since the start of the year, but such an increase was also seen in 2010 - and a lot of the recent increase is largely down to the Tories "help to buy" scheme which I cynically call the "help to maintain high house prices and therefore win the 2015 election" scheme. It's irresponsible and encouraging loads of young people to borrow money that they may potentially have trouble paying back if interest rates rise in the years to come. The whole 2008 crash was caused ultimately by a debt fuelled housing boom and the irresponsible lending that caused it and it seems like the Tories haven't learnt from that and rather invest in building new homes/infrastructure would rather use the easy route which will could very well lead to history repeating itself. What happens when they pull out of the "help to buy" scheme, surely by that point new first time buyers will find it EVEN MORE difficult to save for a sensible deposit, leading to a sharper crash.

Once again, the Tories are just looking after their own (the rich, and the bankers).
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Suedehead2
post Aug 24 2013, 09:49 AM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Aug 24 2013, 09:18 AM) *
Well #1: you can't trust the Tories with the economy just look at Black Wednesday in 1992 - they didn't have a clue. #2: Since 2010 when GDP was actually on the increase, their implementation of austerity has been shown to be too extreme, caused a massive drop-off in GDP in 2011/2012 (which they blamed on the weather - HA!) though admittedly they have reduced the deficit by around 20%. #3: we are NOT all in this together - since 2008 the top 10% have become richer and the top 1% have become substantially richer whilst at the same time middle to low income families will not see their incomes back to pre-2008 levels until 2030 (adjusted for inflation).

I am still very pessimistic about the economy, yes 0.7% growth is positive news but it is a very slow increase and when you look at previous recoveries from recessions. Unemployment is pretty static at the moment with only minor falls registered no doubt from part-time work or zero hour contracts and the fact that oil prices are back to rising again suggests that we may see another slowing across the Eurozone. Oil prices are up another 10% since June so that is only going to fuel greater inflation once again. Wages are falling sharply in real-terms with inflation continuing to rise ahead of pay increases, and since 2010 we have one of the highest wage falls (in real-terms) across Europe, worse than Spain!!
And to settle a final point- the housing market is not 'booming', it has risen 3% since the start of the year, but such an increase was also seen in 2010 - and a lot of the recent increase is largely down to the Tories "help to buy" scheme which I cynically call the "help to maintain high house prices and therefore win the 2015 election" scheme. It's irresponsible and encouraging loads of young people to borrow money that they may potentially have trouble paying back if interest rates rise in the years to come. The whole 2008 crash was caused ultimately by a debt fuelled housing boom and the irresponsible lending that caused it and it seems like the Tories haven't learnt from that and rather invest in building new homes/infrastructure would rather use the easy route which will could very well lead to history repeating itself. What happens when they pull out of the "help to buy" scheme, surely by that point new first time buyers will find it EVEN MORE difficult to save for a sensible deposit, leading to a sharper crash.

Once again, the Tories are just looking after their own (the rich, and the bankers).

Oil prices are definitely a worry at the moment. With the turmoil in the middle east there is a risk of a 1970s style oil price hike which could put a stop to the fragile recovery. This government (and its predecessor) could have done a lot more to develop renewable energy sources to make us less reliable on foreign oil but they haven't.
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Popchartfreak
post Aug 24 2013, 06:43 PM
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A hearty "hear hear" to all of the above comments in reply to the ridiculous notion that the economy is improving. If we've hit rock bottom, then yes it's marginally less-worse, but any talk of recovery is prep for the forthcoming elections and attempts to keep Labour out and avoid another hung parliament. The insane policies of taking on the roles of the banks is evidence enough of that (and we've all seen the effects of protecting the banks for the last 5 years, so no change there then).

I suspect right after the next election, whoever wins, there is going to be a nasty second dose of austerity as artificlal booms collapse horribly.

I'm in a sci fi fanzine, and got on my hobby horse about the housing market back in 2007 being wildly inflated and the banks being selfish nutters. I was very much regarded as the Voice Of Doom, and after the collapse of the housing prices my pessimistic prediction that prices wont recover till 2015/2016 looked a bit mad. Outside London, it's looking a bit optimistic now...!

I am always happy to have someone fling predictions back in my face, as it means it's "good news everyone" (quote courtesy Prof Farnsworth)..
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Sandro Raniere
post Aug 25 2013, 09:05 AM
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QUOTE(Silas @ Aug 23 2013, 10:59 PM) *
Oh LORD Craig! This is just ridiculous from top to bottom.

For a start, Youth unemployment is still over 1m (Highest levels EVER) and Unemployment is still miles above pre-recession levels. It's lower now than it has been for like 15months but no more. Trying to claim otherwise is straight up mentally challenged as it's been headline news for YEARS.

As for the rest, I'll take that with a healthy dose of 'compared to levels at the depths of the recession and still years off pre-recession levels'.

We avoided a triple dip thanks to some figure 'adjustments'. I wouldn't trust the tories with an empty, disused cardboard box.


Youth unemployment is far too high but until the main reason for it is addressed, the flooding into the UK of migrant workers from the EU then it will continue to rise.

The jobs that were being taken by British youths are now being snapped up by Poles, Romanians and Bulgarians for example, jobs that require little experience or are unskilled menial / manual work which a decade ago would have been done by Brits are almost the exclusive preserve of EU immigrants, this to me is the reason for the unacceptably high level of youth unemployment, far more of a reason than coalition policy.

Go to a warehouse, building site, restaurant, hotel reception, cafe etc and chances are these days, certainly where i live, you will be served by an immigrant.

Youth unemployment will only go down significantly by us either withdrawing from the EU entirely or by withdrawing from the free movement of labour parts, with more and more countries joining the EU youth unemployment will go up among Brits

Aswell as withdrawing from the EU or at least major major reforms I would also bring in a law that a company has to prove there was not a suitably qualified Brit applying for the job before it was given to an immigrant, thus Brits get priority in the employment market

Tax breaks should also be given to companies that employ a young British worker

I don't subscribe to the Daily Mail garbage that young Brits are lazy buggers, the problem runs much deeper than that, the problem is EU immigration
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Sandro Raniere
post Aug 25 2013, 09:21 AM
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QUOTE(Cassandra @ Aug 23 2013, 10:50 PM) *
Have you really learned nothing from tossing these silly predictions around last time? A Tory majority isn't out of the question. A healthy working majority (say, 30+) would be pretty bloody remarkable. It'd be enough of an achievement taking 20 seats off of Labour that they didn't win last time - where on earth would they get the other thirty from? 1983 is the only example going of a government increasing its majority - and bad as he may be at times, Ed Miliband is no Michael Foot and he isn't presiding over a party flooding en masse to another.


Labour were gambling on going into the next election with a flatlining economy preaching about 'cuts', that was their trump card and pretty much their only line of defence, with the economy powering ahead now all the talk of 'nasty tory cuts' is going to fall on deaf ears among most voters, there is little likelyhood of a recession or flatlining economy this side of 2015, indeed the CBI forecast growth well over 2% next year.

There is also the fact that Ed Miliband is a figure of ridicule, a hopeless bumbling Mr Bean type figure, would voters trust him with the likely strong economy he would inherit in 2015? the guy is a joke and Ed Balls is as bad if not worse..labour or should I say UNITE chose the wrong Miliband

Labour have peaked Tyron, the only way is down and as the economy and house prices surge ahead down is where they will go and fast mate, a 4-6% lead in the polls when the economy is only starting to improve is a joke, 2 years of robust growth is ahead so labour have well and truly blown it

I am not going to make any wild predictions like I did in 2010 and predict the actual result/majority but the 100% certainty is that Cameron will still be PM after the next election either in a coalition with Lib Dems or preferably a majority tory government.

Ed Miliband will not be PM in 2015, more chance of Susan Boyle topping the FHM Worlds Sexiest Woman poll
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Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 28th March 2024 - 10:23 PM