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 Politics in 2020 - Predictions, It's predictions time |
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 31st December 2019, 06:33 PM
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#21
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 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 
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Can we try to keep this topic to 2020 predictions as much as possible please, thank you.
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31st December 2019, 06:36 PM
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#22
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 31 2019, 06:33 PM)  Can we try to keep this topic to 2020 predictions as much as possible please, thank you. Yes we are doing. The US election is in 2020. |
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1st January 2020, 05:44 AM
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#23
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 31 2019, 06:36 PM) Yes we are doing. The US election is in 2020. 1. Assuming Trump isn't impeached, he will win a 2nd term. 2. A mutually beneficial Brexit deal *will* be signed this year. |
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1st January 2020, 02:05 PM
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#24
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,083 User: 18,639
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Trump has been impeached. It happened already lol.
Brexshit is shit for the uk. |
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1st January 2020, 02:36 PM
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#25
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(ChRiMbO LeG PiPe @ Jan 1 2020, 02:05 PM) Trump has been impeached. It happened already lol. The (Democrat controlled) House of Representatives vote to impeach him, but that's only stage 1 of the process - AIUI the (Republican controlled) Senate would have to approve it by a 2/3 majority, otherwise impeachment goes away, and he continues as President. QUOTE Brexshit is shit for the uk. Why are you using the present tense, when it is still in the future? |
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1st January 2020, 02:42 PM
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#26
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,083 User: 18,639
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Shit tooday, shit yesterday, shit tomorrow
 Nope. He has been impeached. You are now talking about removal from office, i.e conviction. However, the senate is a neoliberal hub of rich republican landed elites, and so there is no fair trial. So the case will NOT move to the senate. At all. He is impeached. It is done. |
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1st January 2020, 03:00 PM
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#27
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
Posts: 18,467 User: 23,308
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 31 2019, 04:44 PM) with mandatory coalition to be scrapped by the end of the current Assembly. But they have to have the power sharing arrangement in NI I thought to keep both nationalists and unionists happy there (and it might even be against the Good Friday Agreement not to have power sharing, although I don't know), and it should be in the DUP's interests to keep that, if there was just a DUP NI government if they remain the largest party in NI in the next Assembly Election with a Sinn Fein opposition, the calls for a border poll would increase even higher than now. If Alliance does really well in the assembly elections, as probably will happen, they will become the official opposition I think, along with SDLP/UUP/Aontu/PBP. This post has been edited by Auld Lang Snake: 1st January 2020, 03:02 PM |
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1st January 2020, 03:00 PM
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#28
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(ChRiMbO LeG PiPe @ Jan 1 2020, 02:42 PM) Shit tooday, shit yesterday, shit tomorrow Nope. He has been impeached. You are now talking about removal from office, i.e conviction. However, the senate is a neoliberal hub of rich republican landed elites, and so there is no fair trial. So the case will NOT move to the senate. At all. He is impeached. It is done. You act like Impeachment is cut & dried - it is not. The Senate *has* to approve the process, or it won't continue. |
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1st January 2020, 03:03 PM
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#29
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,083 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 1 2020, 03:00 PM) You act like Impeachment is cut & dried - it is not. The Senate *has* to approve the process, or it won't continue. You clearly do not understand impeachment. Please read up on it before wasting our time any further. He is already impeached. You cannot predict what has already happened. He has been impeached. It would ordinarily go on as A TRIAL FOR REMOVAL FROM OFFICE. You are now talking about the trial, not impeachment. This trial will not happen. |
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1st January 2020, 03:04 PM
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#30
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,078 User: 8,300
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Donald Trump literally has been impeached, this isn't arguable. Bill Clinton was also impeached, and Andrew Johnson before him. Neither of them were convicted in the Senate (and Trump won't be either) but that doesn't mean impeachment 'went away', the Senate trial is a separate thing entirely.
You can argue whether impeachment really means anything without conviction but you can't say he hasn't been impeached. |
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1st January 2020, 03:04 PM
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#31
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 1 2020, 03:00 PM) You act like Impeachment is cut & dried - it is not. The Senate *has* to approve the process, or it won't continue. Not sure if the impeachment of Donald Trump will be counter-productive for the Democrats, Trump will get an electoral boost after the inevitable failure to remove him from office at the Senate. This post has been edited by Auld Lang Snake: 1st January 2020, 03:05 PM |
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1st January 2020, 03:16 PM
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#32
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(Auld Lang Snake @ Jan 1 2020, 04:00 PM) But they have to have the power sharing arrangement in NI I thought to keep both nationalists and unionists happy there (and it might even be against the Good Friday Agreement not to have power sharing, although I don't know), and it should be in the DUP's interests to keep that, if there was just a DUP NI government if they remain the largest party in NI in the next Assembly Election with a Sinn Fein opposition, the calls for a border poll would increase even higher than now. If Alliance does really well in the assembly elections, as probably will happen, they will become the official opposition I think, along with SDLP/UUP/Aontu/PBP. The mandatory coalition is part of the NI Assembly, but given the rise of "Other" parties within the assembly (ie not Nationalist/Unionist), eventually we will get to the stage where an Assembly cannot command a majority with both nationalists & unionists entering into it, at which point it may be decided to scrap it in favour of majority government ie 45+1. I don't think it will reach this stage in the next Assembly election, but in the one that follows it, it will start to become more of an issue (supposing a unity poll doesn't happen before that, of course). |
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1st January 2020, 04:17 PM
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#33
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
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QUOTE(Bré @ Jan 1 2020, 03:04 PM) Donald Trump literally has been impeached, this isn't arguable. Bill Clinton was also impeached, and Andrew Johnson before him. Neither of them were convicted in the Senate (and Trump won't be either) but that doesn't mean impeachment 'went away', the Senate trial is a separate thing entirely. You can argue whether impeachment really means anything without conviction but you can't say he hasn't been impeached. OK, noted. |
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1st January 2020, 06:26 PM
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#34
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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As usual, bet against all of these for the chance to win big.
UK: Keir Starmer becomes Labour Leader in March 2020 on the final round of AV preferences beating, in descending order, Rebecca Long Bailey, Emily Thornberry, Ian Lavery and Lisa Nandy. Clive Lewis and Jess Phillips stand but do not get the required support to make it onto the ballot. Angela Rayner is elected Deputy Leader with over 50% on the first round. The 2020 local elections in England see very little councils or seats change hands with the main winners being local groups of independent councillors. Sadiq Khan is comfortably re-elected as Mayor of London with the Conservatives candidate Sean Bailey coming fifth behind the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Independent candidate Rory Stewart. After a relatively Brexit-free first nine months of the year, Autumn 2020 sees another "cliff edge" attempt to avoid the UK crashing out of the transition period on No Deal terms in January 2021. The Conservatives attempt to extend the implementation period to the end of March 2021 but the bolstered 50+ Brexit Ultras vote down any attempt to delay the implementation leading to a sudden hard Brexit on 1 December 2020. The Scottish Government takes the UK Government to the Supreme Court after the Conservatives refuse to allow a second independence referendum. The court case drags on for long enough that the SNP's strategy shifts to trying to get a 2nd referendum by winning the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. USA: Joe Biden wins the Democratic nomination far more comfortably than people expect, largely on the back of his unassailable lead with African American voters in Super Tuesday states. In November, the Electoral College is TIED (Democrats flip Pennsylvania, Michigan and the 2nd Maine District) resulting in stalemate as the Democratic House and the (by 51-49) Republican Senate have to try and agree on a Presidential ticket as the winner. The result is still in the Supreme Court in January 2021. |
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1st January 2020, 06:31 PM
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#35
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
Posts: 18,467 User: 23,308
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QUOTE(LexC @ Jan 1 2020, 06:26 PM) USA: Joe Biden wins the Democratic nomination far more comfortably than people expect, largely on the back of his unassailable lead with African American voters in Super Tuesday states. In November, the Electoral College is TIED (Democrats flip Pennsylvania, Michigan and the 2nd Maine District) resulting in stalemate as the Democratic House and the (by 51-49) Republican Senate have to try and agree on a Presidential ticket as the winner. The result is still in the Supreme Court in January 2021. Wow I didn't think it was possible that the US election could be tied (although I think it nearly happened in the one where George Bush was elected iirc with Florida the decider) This post has been edited by Auld Lang Snake: 1st January 2020, 06:32 PM |
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1st January 2020, 06:34 PM
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#36
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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The problem with having the deciding number of votes being an even number is it is mathematically possible to get a tied result!
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1st January 2020, 06:40 PM
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#37
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,078 User: 8,300
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The method to decide who wins a tied electoral college is also prone to ties (iirc it's decided by congress but done on a state by state basis rather than individual members so it could theoretically come out 25-25). CGP Grey made a video about it. x
I don't even want to imagine a world in which the 2020 election is tied though. |
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1st January 2020, 07:08 PM
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#38
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Bré @ Jan 1 2020, 06:40 PM) The method to decide who wins a tied electoral college is also prone to ties (iirc it's decided by congress but done on a state by state basis rather than individual members so it could theoretically come out 25-25). CGP Grey made a video about it. x I don't even want to imagine a world in which the 2020 election is tied though. If you read the rules and procedures carefully it could even come down to neither becoming President if Congress can't agree, but someone else, say one of the VP candidates or even the Speaker getting it as a sort of unifying candidate if that could be agreed. This post has been edited by Crazy Chris-tmas: 1st January 2020, 07:12 PM |
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1st January 2020, 07:10 PM
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#39
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Bré @ Jan 1 2020, 06:40 PM) I don't even want to imagine a world in which the 2020 election is tied though. Me neither. I want a clear Trump win. |
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1st January 2020, 08:06 PM
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#40
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 there's nothing straight about plump Elvis
Pronouns: they/any
Joined: 21 January 2016 Posts: 13,144 User: 22,895 
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Trump comes close to writing a tell all on people in his government and 'commits suicide' in an implausible way. The Republican party insists that's what happened. Meanwhile, Melania *actually* writes a tell-all and Ivanka tries to argue that she should inherit the Presidency.
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