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 OPINION POLLS 2018-2022, Strong and stable... |
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 23rd February 2019, 06:25 AM
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#101
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 
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It'll be interesting to see how the TIG rate in the polls for the next month or two - especially as they appear to have only one policy, and no really big names...
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23rd February 2019, 04:21 PM
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#102
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 Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,151 User: 5,138
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At ethe independent group standing in elections? They certainly don't seem to want to stand in a by election anyway!
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23rd February 2019, 04:33 PM
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#103
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 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(Steve201 @ Feb 23 2019, 05:21 PM)  At ethe independent group standing in elections? They certainly don't seem to want to stand in a by election anyway! At the moment it seems to be a "To Be Confirmed" situation. There is a parliamentary by-election that's likely to take place in Wales in the next few months, but I don't think they'll have a candidate ready in time for that - in order for them to make an impact, it'll have to be a marquee name, but I'm not sure if there's any big names that aren't already in parliament that would support the aims of the Tiggers. As for the local election, I don't think they've got enough of a run-in time to have a whole swathe of new candidates to run in most of the places up for re-election. If they are running, it'll likely be local defectors rather than brand new names. Which would be a shame for them, as building themselves up from the grassroots will be very important for them - it worked wonders for the Lib Dems building themselves up on a council level, which then helped when they were standing on a national level. At the moment, TIG is very much a top-down party, given they've only got MPs at the moment. |
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23rd February 2019, 05:34 PM
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#104
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,672 User: 3,272
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There are no local elections in Newport, so I suspect the by-election may be in April. The only reason for leaving it until May ould be if Labour think there is a chance they could lose the seat.
Fielding a large number of candidates in the May elections would be a huge rusk for the Tiggers. With no party organisation at the moment, they could end up getting very bad results indeed. That could kill them off before they've even started. |
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24th February 2019, 06:36 AM
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#105
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 23 2019, 05:34 PM) There are no local elections in Newport, so I suspect the by-election may be in April. The only reason for leaving it until May ould be if Labour think there is a chance they could lose the seat. Very little chance of that - the Tories could only barely scrape it, even in the Thatcherite landslide of 1983. |
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24th February 2019, 06:49 AM
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#106
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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Conservatives would win a 34-seat majority if a General Election were held tomorrow - but LOSE if Jeremy Corbyn stepped down as Labour leader, poll suggests
Theresa May would would win a 34-seat majority in a General Election, poll says The Mail on Sunday poll puts the Conservatives on 39% and Labour on 31% Without Corbyn as leader, Labour would win 40% over the Tories 37%, poll says https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-67...l-suggests.html ****************************************** OK, the numbers themselves are not that important, but the notion that there would be a considerable swing to Labour without Corbyn as leader, should provide food for thought... This post has been edited by vidcapper: 24th February 2019, 07:35 AM |
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24th February 2019, 08:57 AM
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#107
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,672 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Feb 24 2019, 06:36 AM) Very little chance of that - the Tories could only barely scrape it, even in the Thatcherite landslide of 1983. In the last election Labour and the Tories both won seats they didn’t win in landslide years. |
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24th February 2019, 09:20 AM
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#108
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 24 2019, 08:57 AM) In the last election Labour and the Tories both won seats they didn’t win in landslide years. True - demographic changes can cause that. |
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25th February 2019, 10:54 PM
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#109
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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For anyone in any doubt as to why Labour are now suddenly in favour of a 2nd referendum - Obviously you shouldn't read too much into one poll, but golly gosh, look at that Labour %. |
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25th February 2019, 11:19 PM
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#110
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,485 User: 21,753
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Oh dear at Labour!
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26th February 2019, 06:22 AM
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#111
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Feb 25 2019, 10:54 PM) For anyone in any doubt as to why Labour are now suddenly in favour of a 2nd referendum - Obviously you shouldn't read too much into one poll, but golly gosh, look at that Labour %. It's the mid 80's over again! With the loss of some moderate MP's, that presumably makes the core even less appealing. But will Corbyn get the clear message without an election defeat to ram it home? |
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3rd March 2019, 11:19 PM
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#112
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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Latest Opinium
Definitely a slump for Labour and a surge for the Conservatives! That's the Conservatives, who just had to pay out £33 million to EuroTunnel to settle a lawsuit over extra ferry services in the event of a no-deal Brexit.: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47414699 Westminster voting intention: CON: 40% (+3) LAB: 34% (-3) LDEM: 9% (+1) UKIP: 7% (-) GRN: 3% (-) via @OpiniumResearch, 26 Feb - 01 Mar Chgs. w/ 15 Feb TIG down to 5%... 
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17th March 2019, 11:45 AM
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#113
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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Latest from Survation:
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17th March 2019, 02:47 PM
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#114
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Mar 17 2019, 11:45 AM) Latest from Survation: You looked in The Mail - I thought that was a forbidden publication for Remainers/progressives... 
This post has been edited by vidcapper: 17th March 2019, 02:47 PM |
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17th March 2019, 05:30 PM
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#115
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,151 User: 5,138
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That's a poll to frighten the torys with this weeks vote for me because labour were well behind over the past two months now all of a sudden they have a decent lead!?
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17th March 2019, 05:40 PM
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#116
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,556 User: 10,030
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QUOTE(Steve201 @ Mar 17 2019, 05:30 PM) That's a poll to frighten the torys with this weeks vote for me because labour were well behind over the past two months now all of a sudden they have a decent lead!? Not surprising given that May is pushing so hard for a deal that pretty much no one wants. |
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17th March 2019, 05:53 PM
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#117
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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I don't think that poll's going to spook the Tories, unless there's a couple more polls that come out showing a Labour lead, demonstrating this is a consistent pattern, rather than one rogue poll.
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18th March 2019, 06:26 AM
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#118
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 17 2019, 05:53 PM) I don't think that poll's going to spook the Tories, unless there's a couple more polls that come out showing a Labour lead, demonstrating this is a consistent pattern, rather than one rogue poll. And even then, they are hardly likely to call a GE while trailing in the polls! |
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31st March 2019, 12:00 AM
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#119
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 17 2019, 05:53 PM) I don't think that poll's going to spook the Tories, unless there's a couple more polls that come out showing a Labour lead, demonstrating this is a consistent pattern, rather than one rogue poll. Westminster voting intention: LAB: 41% (+5) CON: 36% (-7) LDEM: 7% (+1) UKIP: 7% (+2) via @DeltaPollUK Chgs. w/ 23 Feb |
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1st April 2019, 05:07 AM
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#120
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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I think the odds of the PM calling a GE have just lengthened greatly...
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