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 The X Factor Series 12 • Odds |
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 Oct 19 2015, 12:32 AM
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#1
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 Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,164 User: 10,139 
         
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Thought I'd get one started to track how things are going in the odds!
11/4 Louisa Johnson 5/1 Che Chesterman 11/2 4th Impact 11/2 Seann Miley Moore 8/1 Keira Weathers 16/1 Anton Stephens 16/1 Jennifer Phillips 20/1 Simon Lynch 25/1 Ben Clark 25/1 Lauren Murray 25/1 Mason Noise 28/1 Alien 33/1 Ebru Gursoy 33/1 Havva Rebke 33/1 Josh Daniel 50/1 BEKLN 50/1 Chloe Paige 50/1 Max Stone 50/1 The First Kings 66/1 Bupsi 66/1 Kerri-Anne Phillips 80/1 Menn On Point 80/1 Monica Michaels 80/1 Silver Tone |
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Oct 19 2015, 02:42 AM
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#2
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🙄
Joined: 14 February 2010
Posts: 53,654 User: 10,643
       
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Surprised Monica is so low considering the amount of airtime.
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Oct 19 2015, 04:59 AM
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#3
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 1 October 2015
Posts: 55 User: 22,504
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How do you read that?
Who is in the lead? |
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Oct 19 2015, 07:53 AM
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#4
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 1 October 2015
Posts: 55 User: 22,504
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Louisa is in the lead?
Am I reading that correctly? Or is it Che? 
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Oct 19 2015, 10:28 AM
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#5
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 4 November 2013
Posts: 30,506 User: 20,053
   
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Yes Louisa is currently bookies' favourite.
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Oct 19 2015, 11:11 AM
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#6
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,164 User: 10,139
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QUOTE(sigmahqfan @ Oct 19 2015, 08:53 AM)  Louisa is in the lead? Am I reading that correctly? Or is it Che? Yep, Louisa is favourite, top is favourite and bottom is least favourite! It can get confusing though when not every number is x/1, some are like 11/2 and I never know exactly how to compare but I know the order because the bookies also list them in order! |
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Oct 19 2015, 12:35 PM
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#7
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,519 User: 11,746
    
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I'm guessing 11/2 means 5.5/1 but they don't want to put in decimal points?
Which means Louisa is 2.75/1 to win |
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Oct 19 2015, 02:19 PM
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#8
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,164 User: 10,139
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QUOTE(Danvicii @ Oct 19 2015, 01:35 PM) I'm guessing 11/2 means 5.5/1 but they don't want to put in decimal points? Which means Louisa is 2.75/1 to win It's that you get £2 for every £11 you put on, that gets awkward to calculate so usually I use an odds calculator and say that I'm outing £10 on each, then you use the returns for comparative purposes. |
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Oct 26 2015, 04:16 AM
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#9
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,164 User: 10,139
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9/4 Louisa Johnson
9/2 4th Impact 5/1 Che Chesterman 6/1 Seann Miley Moore 7/1 Anton Stephans 10/1 Lauren Murray 12/1 Kiera Weathers 16/1 Mason Noise 20/1 Alien Uncovered 25/1 Max Stone 66/1 Bupsi 66/1 Reggie & Bollie |
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Oct 26 2015, 05:08 AM
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#10
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 1 October 2015
Posts: 55 User: 22,504
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4th Impact being so high is truly tragic.
I hope their support on youtube and twitter are from Filipinos. |
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Nov 8 2015, 06:18 PM
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#11
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,164 User: 10,139
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In brackets I'll put the return on a £10 bet, for comparative purposes:
Winner: 5/4 Louisa Johnson (£22.50) 3/1 Che Chesterman (£40) 5/1 Lauren Murray (£60) 12/1 4th Impakt (£130) 14/1 Seann Miley Moore (£150) 20/1 Max Stone (£210) 25/1 Anton Stephans (£260) 28/1 Mason Noise (£290) 33/1 Reggie & Bollie (£340) 40/1 Monica Michael (£410) 80/1 Kiera Weathers (£810) Next elimination: 11/10 Kiera Weathers (£21) 15/8 Monica Michael (£28.75) 6/1 Mason Noise (£70) 14/1 Max Stone (£150) 16/1 Anton Stephans (£170) 33/1 4th Impakt (£340) 33/1 Reggie & Bollie (£340) 40/1 Seann Miley Moore (£410) 100/1 Che Chesterman (£1110) 100/1 Lauren Murray (£1110) 100/1 Louisa Johnson (£1110) Acts in the bottom 3: 1/5 Kiera Weathers 2/5 Monica Michael 10/11 Mason Noise 2/1 Max Stone 4/1 Anton Stephans 4/1 Reggie & Bollie 4/1 Seann Miley Moore 5/1 4th Impact 16/1 Lauren Murray 25/1 Che Chesterman 25/1 Louisa Johnson Odds very close for the bottom 3! I know the bookies aren't the be all and end all, but I can't help but think that Mason and the two overs will escape and 4th Impact could be a shock bottom 3?? Depends if they've sorted out the international voting shiz  I mean Max seems to be selling on iTunes, and that should see him safe as it's only week 2. Anton will probably get votes for being completely bussed, sympathy really, and Mason has the "he iz fit" vote. I'm probably wrong but hmm can't shake it
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Nov 8 2015, 06:49 PM
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#12
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 4 November 2013
Posts: 30,506 User: 20,053
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No I think that's definitely a reasonable prediction, there'll be one shock in the bottom 3 for an original fave.
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Nov 8 2015, 06:54 PM
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#13
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 WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,595 User: 88
  
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Is it definitely a double again tonight?
Kiera leaving at 11/10 looks easy money. |
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Nov 8 2015, 07:17 PM
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#14
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 29 August 2009
Posts: 820 User: 9,520
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Do those who bet odds ever receive inside information?
I hope the shock favourite in the bottom three that we're referring to will be Anton, which wouldn't be such a surprise. I think that Kiera and Monica are obvious choices for the bottom three, but Kiera may cause a surprise since the voting public like sympathy votes after she was bottom two last week. I think that Fourth Impact topped the votes last week and whilst their performance last night was underwhelming and also the first one, resulting in people possibly not seeing it, they won't be anywhere near the bottom two. Seann could provide a shock, and Reggie n' Bollie are loved by loads, including me, but I think we are giving them the benefit of the doubt sorely because they are a novelty act. Mason isn't as controversial as people make out and he has a strong fanbase, and if he is bottom three the judges are likely to save him. I still think that Max could be an option; I don't think he really has a fanbase other than elderly people who will watch the show just hoping that he gets through and not actually voting. His download sold well on iTunes last week, but rumour has it that he only scraped through; there were the downloads of acts who were frontloaded, then there were others like Mason, Lauren and Reggie n' Bollie that sold well over time, which tells me that they are appealing to the general public despite the majority of Buzzjack thinking that Mason and Reggie n' Bollie could be bottom two. Louisa and Che will obviously be safe. |
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Nov 8 2015, 07:22 PM
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#15
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,164 User: 10,139
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Nov 8 2015, 06:54 PM) Is it definitely a double again tonight? Kiera leaving at 11/10 looks easy money. Yep it's a double again! QUOTE(MrIndependent @ Nov 8 2015, 07:17 PM) Do those who bet odds ever receive inside information? I hope the shock favourite in the bottom three that we're referring to will be Anton, which wouldn't be such a surprise. I think that Kiera and Monica are obvious choices for the bottom three, but Kiera may cause a surprise since the voting public like sympathy votes after she was bottom two last week. I think that Fourth Impact topped the votes last week and whilst their performance last night was underwhelming and also the first one, resulting in people possibly not seeing it, they won't be anywhere near the bottom two. Seann could provide a shock, and Reggie n' Bollie are loved by loads, including me, but I think we are giving them the benefit of the doubt sorely because they are a novelty act. Mason isn't as controversial as people make out and he has a strong fanbase, and if he is bottom three the judges are likely to save him. I still think that Max could be an option; I don't think he really has a fanbase other than elderly people who will watch the show just hoping that he gets through and not actually voting. His download sold well on iTunes last week, but rumour has it that he only scraped through; there were the downloads of acts who were frontloaded, then there were others like Mason, Lauren and Reggie n' Bollie that sold well over time, which tells me that they are appealing to the general public despite the majority of Buzzjack thinking that Mason and Reggie n' Bollie could be bottom two. Louisa and Che will obviously be safe. Nobody has said that Reggie & Bollie will be bottom 2 I think they're one of the safest, not on a Louisa or Che level but still safe.And as for inside information, probably. I remember with previous shocks like Hannah Barrett being bottom 2 in week 3, her odds shortened dramatcally in the day so people thought that at that pont they must have been getting some inside info. And with Bake Off, which is differnt but still, there was a leak of the winner apparently (I didn't see who it was so I don't know if it was correct) as it's pre-recorded, and their odds dropped a lot as well with a certain bookie. |
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Nov 8 2015, 07:34 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 29 August 2009
Posts: 820 User: 9,520
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Interesting! Thanks for this post, Liam.
I will rephrase that to many on Buzzjack WISHING they'd be in the bottom two? I have seen a lot of positive comments, but here at Buzzjack and through other forums too they seem like a really polarising act. I also didn't realise that they were called Menn On Poinnt in the audition stages, because I didn't think they were good enough for me to follow or be interested in them. I wish that the producers would've put some time aside for them to explain these silly name changes. |
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Nov 22 2015, 05:52 PM
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#17
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,164 User: 10,139
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Winner
1/2 Louisa Johnson 5/1 Lauren Murray 11/2 Che Chesterman 10/1 Reggie & Bollie 16/1 4th Impact 40/1 Anton Stephans Odds have Louisa as 4x more likely than Lauren (£15 return on £10 compared to £60 return) to win!  Next elimination 2/5 Anton Stephans 11/4 4th Impact 9/1 Che Chesterman 16/1 Lauren Murray 20/1 Reggie & Bollie 66/1 Louisa Johnson Bottom 2 2/5 Anton Stephans 8/11 4th Impact 10/11 Che Chesterman 3/1 Lauren Murray 6/1 Reggie & Bollie 33/1 Louisa Johnson Bottom 2 combo 2/1 Anton / 4th Impact 3/1 4th Impact / Che 3/1 Anton / Che 11/1 Anton / Lauren 14/1 4th Impact / Lauren 16/1 Anton / Reggie & Bollie 16/1 Che / Lauren 33/1 4th Impact / Reggie & Bollie 50/1 Che / Reggi & Bollie 66/1 Lauren / Reggie & Bollie 80/1 Anton / Louisa 100/1 4th Impact / Louisa 125/1 Che / Louisa 150/1 Lauren / Louisa 150/1 Louisa / Reggie & Bollie Che not far off overtaking 4I on the bottom 2 and his odds are shortening whereas theirs are lengthening I'd love him to be a shock bottom 2 really, I like him but he wasn't that great last night and I'm really bored of the dated ballads every week as i've said.
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Nov 22 2015, 06:30 PM
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#18
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 15 March 2006
Posts: 48,122 User: 223
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Have we ever had a female top 2?
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Nov 22 2015, 07:40 PM
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#19
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There's a frisbee in my brunch
Joined: 29 September 2013
Posts: 3,748 User: 19,860
  
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QUOTE(Jack @ Nov 22 2015, 06:30 PM) Have we ever had a female top 2? Nope. And 2011 was the only year that two out of the final three were female (Little Mix and Amelia Lily). |
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Nov 22 2015, 07:42 PM
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#20
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 15 March 2006
Posts: 48,122 User: 223
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I remember there's been an all male Top 5 (Rylan, Union J, James Arthur, Jahmene Douglas and Christopher Maloney) so it'd be nice for a Top 2 female. Even if Louisa and Lauren are nothing that special imo.
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