What will be the 2017 Election's biggest "Portillo Moment"?

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What will be the 2017 Election's biggest "Portillo Moment"?

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Brett-Butler View member profile	Apr 28 2017, 09:03 PM Post #1
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455	In General Elections, the "Portillo Moment" happens when a high-profile MP ends up surprisingly and unexpectedly losing their seats, and takes its name from the 1997 General Election, when Conservative cabinet minister Michael Portillo lost his seat during Labour's landslide victory that year. More recent "Portillo moments" happened in 2010, when DUP lead Peter Robinson lost his seat to Naomi Long of the Alliance Party (and to a lesser extent, Lembit Obik & Charles Clarke losing their seats), and 2015 saw Ed Balls, Vince Cable & the sadly departed Charles Kennedy among others losing their seats. So what do you think will be the "Portillo moment" of the 2017 General Election? One suspects it will be someone within the Labour Party, quite possibly within what remains of their shadow cabinet, given the current predicted Tory landslide, but it would not surprise me if one of the higher profile SNP politicians gets the chop.


Suedehead2 View member profile	Apr 28 2017, 09:06 PM Post #2
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272	Are we assuming the Shadow Cabinet on election day will be the same as it is now? Not that many of them are anywhere near household names.


Brett-Butler View member profile	Apr 28 2017, 09:21 PM Post #3
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455	QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 28 2017, 10:06 PM) Are we assuming the Shadow Cabinet on election day will be the same as it is now? Not that many of them are anywhere near household names. You've got a point - the members of the Shadow Cabinet that you could call household names (McDonnell, Diane Abbott, Thornberry) all have 10,000+ majorities, so any of them losing their seat would be rather unlikely (although Lib Dems were close in 2010 & 2005 in Islington South, so you never know). Shadow Defense Secretary Clive Lewis has been mooted as a probable unseating, but the odd Question Time appearance aside, he's not a well known name among the general public.


LexC View member profile	Apr 28 2017, 09:26 PM Post #4
Attack Dog/Sass Queen Joined: 29 January 2008 Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342	If there's any luck, Kate Hoey should lose Vauxhall. Other than that most of the "big" names on either side have pretty safe seats so only if the Tories are winning so hard that they're winning Hackney I doubt there's going to be much in the way of Portillo moments. The SNP Westminster Leader Angus Robertson could potentially lose Moray if the Tories are having a real revival in Scotland but that's by no means a done deal.


Long Dong Silver View member profile	Apr 28 2017, 09:29 PM Post #5
Buffy/Charmed Joined: 18 April 2013 Posts: 44,034 User: 18,639	Hmm none are famous right now, except Dianne Aboot, so not sure ... I think some Lib Dems are RE contesting their Scottish seats, so we could get an ANTI-Portillo moment, with dumped famous MPs coming back.


Soy Adrián View member profile	Apr 28 2017, 09:45 PM Post #6
I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me Joined: 6 February 2010 Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596	It might have been Goldsmith had he not already been booted out in the by-election. A second go around wouldn't go amiss.


Steve201 View member profile	Apr 30 2017, 01:07 AM Post #7
Shakin Stevens Joined: 29 December 2007 Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138	Douglas Alexander losing to the youngest MP was the Portillo moment in 2015 for Me!


Qassändra View member profile	May 5 2017, 11:17 AM Post #8
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	I don't think it will be a high profile MP, but I think the Tories winning Sedgefield would be an equivalent 'oh shit' moment.


Danny View member profile	May 9 2017, 04:58 PM Post #9
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	If the council elections last week are any guide (big if), Alex Salmond is in big danger of losing his seat.