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 Possible second independence referendum |
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 13th March 2017, 09:06 PM
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#101
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 Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,128 User: 18,639 
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A more reasonable PM could use this, and the worry of NI reunifying with Ireland and Welsh independence, to call off Brexit, stating that thr survival of the Union is more important than following a 52-48% vote out the EU. Alas, we have Mad May ...
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13th March 2017, 09:14 PM
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#102
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Silas @ Mar 13 2017, 03:43 PM)  Catalonia is a unionist myth that y'all really need to stop clinging too. Spain has already said it would respect the result of any constitutionally valid referendum. Catalonia can not constitutionally secede from Spain so there's no precedent there. Also the UK is leaving the EU and the Scots are staying in. This is a totally different circumstance from a region breaking free and joining on its own alongside its former government. The 2014 referendum gave them precedence there but this doesn't. To really hammer it home the spainish government could champion the idea that Scotland is the successor state of the UK and thus automatically inherit its EU membership (not likely and not currently favoured by the EU Council) as that would leave no path for Catalonia to follow. The EU is the land of asterisks and opt outs it's not inconceivable for Scotlands entry to be done in a way that leaves no path for Catalonia to follow thus keeping Madrid chuffed. The argument that Spain would veto Scotland because of Catalonia is one of my pet peeves when it comes to the independence debate - even before the EU referendum happened and changed everything. The idea that a nation that voted for independence through an approved referendum would be vetoed for EU membership because a nation doesn't want to give succour to an unapproved referendum makes no sense whatsoever. The argument on successor status for Scotland is more shaky but I think it would be tremendously unlikely the EU wouldn't move heaven and earth for the PR win of a country seceding in large part to rejoin it. QUOTE(PeaceMob @ Mar 13 2017, 04:08 PM) Wow Nicola Sturgeon really f***ing hates England, I see it as a win/win situation, if Scotland leaves then the rest of the UK no longer have to see and hear from that ugly racist again and if they vote to stay then she's just destroyed her own and the SNP's political careers. Amazing! Trump apparently not racist but Sturgeon is! Incredible scenes! |
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13th March 2017, 09:16 PM
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#103
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 13 2017, 07:23 PM) I very much look forward to Scotland seceding from the United Kingdom, then take out the popcorn whilst enjoying the sight of the SNP in an independent Scotland dashing all the way to the right faster than you can say de Valera. Nah - Tories have already got that slot sewn up. The SNP would carry on talking left and governing centre, and the financial exodus from London to Edinburgh would give them more than enough leeway for a short while. What'll be more interesting is what the radical left in the SNP do once 'keep it steady till independence' isn't an excuse the party leadership can use anymore. |
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13th March 2017, 09:27 PM
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#104
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Silas @ Mar 13 2017, 08:50 PM) 8 - Oil is not the only thing our economic case is built on. There are many many many countries in Europe with a smaller or similar GDP that do just fine on their own. Or should I tell Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Slovakia et al that the economic case for their independence "just doesn't add up"? It depends on what you define 'just fine on their own' as. They exist, sure enough, but most Scots certainly won't be pleased with an outcome that leaves them with a worse standard of living, as is the case in the majority of those countries. |
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13th March 2017, 09:31 PM
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#105
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,128 User: 18,639
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Brexiteers voted to become a marginal country, so Scotland seceding and UK becoming a rump state and losing ita UN swcurity seat is on them. Well done.
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13th March 2017, 10:00 PM
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#106
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,562 User: 10,030
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QUOTE(Silas @ Mar 13 2017, 08:50 PM) *facepalm* 1 - reread the section of my post you quoted. It's clearly a hypothetical situation for what Spain could do to discourage Catalonia. Every EU statement is hypothetical until we actually vote yes. As for the rest of your post. I'm just gonna use it to do a mass rebuttal of the Unionist press shite just so we're all on the same page before we start 2 - Scotland is currently part of an EU member state and thus applies all the various laws and regulations. There is no criteria too meet as it meets everyone of them already by BEING A MEMBERSTATE. 3 - Scotland and the alleged obligation to join the Euro. This particular unionist myth is so f***ing lazy because it takes 3 nano seconds to dispute. It is EU law to join the euro at some point however to do so you must meet criteria. One of these is being a member of the ERM for two years. This is over and above the economic criteria. To put off joining the euro forever you just don't join the ERM which is what Sweden have done. Or you could join the ERM and just not switch. The EU aren't hardliners over the Eurozone. About half the 2004 entrants have no plans to join the euro and the EU doesn't give a flying f*** 4 - England trades more with Scotland than Scotland trades with England. We are Englands second largest export destination. rUK needs us for trade just as much as we need them. This isn't one sided. It's in both parties interests not to be f***ing idiots over the border. 5 - trade with rUK won't suddenly cease to be a thing. That's not how international trade works. This is common sense. 6 - If we were to join the Euro the pound is up the shitter so that means imports are cheap for us because of how exchange rates work it also makes trade with rEU more cost effective as we share a currency with hundreds of millions of people. If we move to Euro it's rUK that suffers with higher prices, not Scotland. 7 - You rely on us for Electricity. Literally. We overproduce massively every day and export to England because rUK doesn't have the capacity to cope without us. 8 - Oil is not the only thing our economic case is built on. There are many many many countries in Europe with a smaller or similar GDP that do just fine on their own. Or should I tell Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Slovakia et al that the economic case for their independence "just doesn't add up"? 9 - Oil prices are rising again. New technology means that previously unviable oil fields are being reconsidered. I'm really fed up of the same parroted unionist bullshit. It takes seconds of constructive thought to tear the myths apart. On GDP measures Scotland is the wealthiest part of the UK outside of London. It's wealthier than many EU member states. There's your economic case. How an independent Scotland balances its books is up to the government of the day. To say it has no case economically is woeful economic illiteracy. And I will track down and bitch slap anyone that quotes the GERS figures so hard they'll have flower of Scotland ringing in their ears for the next 50 years. Those numbers are so discredited it's unreal. They include trident and HS2 (which stops at Manchester) and funding for other uk schemes that don't touch Scotland and the costs of a variety of other policy decisions taken by Westminster that Holyrood would not follow (such as the bargain basement corporation tax rate). The true figure is around 7-8% rather than 15%. It's still not great but last time I checked rUK hasn't hit a deficit target for over a decade. Maybe your economic case for independence just doesn't add up �� Also brexiteers using the same things against us that they used to build their argument for leaving the EU is hilarious *breathes* 1. Ye reread sorry about that. 2. But when it becomes independant it won't be a member state of the EU and will have to sort out things like its government amongst other things (don't get me wrong, all that stuff should be sorted out quite quickly given Scotland already has a lot of devolved powers). That might take a bit of time to do, then once that's sorted it'll have to apply to become a memberstate which can be a bit of a lengthy process. Although I agree it shouldn't take too long for Scotland to become a member. But it could still take a couple years or so to sort out. 3. Fair point, but Scotland will still have to come up with its own currency if it doesn't take on the Euro. I'm guessing a Scottish pound will suffice. 4. That's true and hope both sides manage to get that sorted out if Scotland does leave. 5. Never said trading would cease to exist. 6. That assumes Scotland keeps the pound, which I highly doubt Scotland will. It'd have to create its own currency (Perhaps a Scottish pound, similar to other countries using their own version of the dollar). The £:Euro is much different to the £:$ as well because there's a lot of financial pressure on the Euro (in part due to what's happening in Italy/Greece and to a lesser extent Spain/Portugal). So there's definitely a big risk in taking on the Euro (perhaps more or less of a risk in a few years time though). 7. I don't think that'll be too much of an issue with the changes to electical infrastructre/demand falling in the UK. Although it could be something to help boost an independant Scotland's economy (charge a little less than other suppliers like France, but still charging more than you would've previously). 8. Never said it was, but a new viable economic plan would have to be devised. The SNP would need to raise taxes given the budget deficit and the fact they spend more per person on public services compared to the rest of the UK. That could prove unpopular and there may be slow economic growth at first (or worst-case a recession) once Scotland leaves. 9. Oil prices are actually falling once again. Despite curbs on oil production in a number of countries, Iran & Iraq are increasing supply and the US is having another Shale oil boom. In fact the US could cause prices to fall further with the Trump administartion getting rid of the EPA (less regulation, easier for companies to start drilling etc). And what I meant by economic case was in regards to growth (as most are focused on sadly). I didn't mean the scottish economy would automatically collapse. Just that leaving the union would likely lead to less growth than staying for a time. But there's a lot of uncertainty still as things can change quite dramtically in a few years time. The deal with the EU may not be all that bad, which could weaken the case for an independant Scotland. But at the same time there'll be a lot of difficulties that'll need to be faced if Scotland does become independant. Either way I wish the best for Scotland whether it votes to leave or not. I'd hope that the referendum will be after a deal has been made (and accepted/rejected) rather than in the middle of all the negotiations. Thanks for your response as well Silas, much more substantial than the typical insult-ridden, sarcastic-infused conversations I see across other places in regards to indyref2 
This post has been edited by Envoirment: 13th March 2017, 10:03 PM |
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13th March 2017, 10:26 PM
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#107
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 Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
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I'll respond properly when I land back home tomorrow (I'm just between flights now) but ta for the response you make a few decent points there
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13th March 2017, 11:01 PM
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#108
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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I hope May refuses them a second referendum. Better still though would be for them to have another and it's another vote to stay in the UK. Maybe motormouth Sturgeon will STFU then.
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14th March 2017, 02:07 AM
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#109
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
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I actually think that the € could be very viable but I accept that it's toxic amongst the majority of voters in Scotland. Bear in mind that 6 countries have joined the eurozone since the financial crisis, and only one of them (Cyprus) has suffered major problems.
What's regrettable is that much of southern Europe's problems were avoidable. The Euro wasn't even the cause, but I admit that Eurozone membership under the imperfect setup of a currency union without a common fiscal policy enhanced these issues. Regardless, Scotland isn't obliged to join the Euro. |
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14th March 2017, 09:57 AM
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#110
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,126 User: 3,474
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QUOTE(common sense @ Mar 14 2017, 12:01 AM) I hope May refuses them a second referendum. Better still though would be for them to have another and it's another vote to stay in the UK. Maybe motormouth Sturgeon will STFU then. On what grounds? You got your economically fatal little racist vote that resulted in the murder of an MP. Why shouldn't Scotland, a country that existed for 1000 years before the union, get the option to choose its own path of self determination? |
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14th March 2017, 07:42 PM
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#111
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,869 User: 17,376
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Scotland has just as much right to decide on it's future as England has in deciding to leave the EU, there is no difference. Pretending the UK has the right to leave the Union and Scotland doesn't have the right to leave another Union is self-delusion.
Everything has changed. I didn't support an indie Scotland while we were a United Kingdom, but we ain't united in any way now. The tragedy of Scotland leaving would be the Tory Right-wing will have free reign over poor people in England for the rest of our lives, at least until there's an actual rather than political uprising. The chances of any other party gaining power will depend on how big a cock-up Brexit turns out to be for the majority of people (as opposed to the poor who are screwed whatever happens). If by some miracle, the weapons-selling, morality-free Tories manage to bring in cash to the country quickly (other than from tax-evading Russian oligarchs and British Virgin Island tax dodgers which does nothing for the economy and general well-being) then things may be stable. If it all falls apart, and it's obvious it has been a disaster that will take decades to recover from, then no amount of foreign billionaire propaganda and Tory lies will convince the younger generation's opinion that they were stitched up by a bunch of rich right-wing old people. Still, at least in a decade what's left of the UK could always apply again for the EU once the demographics change... By then it will be the last refuge of democracy given the way the USA is going... Gotta laugh though, eh? All the "Project Fear" "lies" are coming to pass one by one - and we still haven't even triggered Article 50! |
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16th March 2017, 04:38 PM
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#112
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,562 User: 10,030
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The UK government is apparantly going to reject a second referendum before Brexit negotiations are complete (Nicola's Autumn 2018/Spring 2019 dates being rejected essentially).
Scottish independence: Referendum demand 'will be rejected' The UK government is to reject calls for a Scottish independence referendum before Brexit after Theresa May said "now is not the time". Link I feel that's fair. Better to see what sort of deal the UK will get with the EU when talks conclude in 2019 before voting for independance. It seems as though indyref2 will not granted until after the next general election though. This post has been edited by Envoirment: 16th March 2017, 04:38 PM |
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17th March 2017, 12:12 PM
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#113
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 feminist icon
Pronouns: she/her
Joined: 21 April 2015 Posts: 25,354 User: 21,777 
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non surprising but also ridiculously stupid
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17th March 2017, 02:07 PM
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#114
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,128 User: 18,639
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Called it!
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17th March 2017, 02:36 PM
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#115
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 4 November 2014
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There won't be another referendum until at least 2023 and that's only IF the SNP win a majority in 2021 in the Scottish parliament. Theresa May has just outskilled Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP, it wasn't that difficult though for the UK Prime Minister
However this also means another 4 years of endless ranting and "blaming the English" from the Scottish Nationalists for the next 4 years. 
This post has been edited by PeaceMob: 17th March 2017, 02:52 PM |
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17th March 2017, 02:59 PM
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#116
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(PeaceMob @ Mar 17 2017, 02:36 PM) There won't be another referendum until at least 2023 and that's only IF the SNP win a majority in 2021 in the Scottish parliament. Theresa May has just outskilled Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP, it wasn't that difficult though for the UK Prime Minister However this also means another 4 years of endless ranting and "blaming the English" from the Scottish Nationalists for the next 4 years. Outskilled them...how? She's made the entire fate of the union contingent on the EU giving the UK a good deal. You're going to have to decide which enemy is actually an enemy at some point. It's not exactly going to be bloody difficult for the SNP to win a majority if there's a majority for Scottish independence by then, considering they won one at a time when there definitely wasn't and came a shade off getting another last year. |
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17th March 2017, 03:53 PM
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#117
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 4 November 2014
Posts: 527 User: 21,342 |
QUOTE(Qassändra @ Mar 17 2017, 02:59 PM) Outskilled them...how? She's made the entire fate of the union contingent on the EU giving the UK a good deal. You're going to have to decide which enemy is actually an enemy at some point. It's not exactly going to be bloody difficult for the SNP to win a majority if there's a majority for Scottish independence by then, considering they won one at a time when there definitely wasn't and came a shade off getting another last year. The majority of the Scottish people do not want a second referendum so soon, Theresa May anticipated what Nicola Sturgeon would do and by refusing this referendum the PM knew that she would have the majority of Scotland backing her to refuse this referendum, that's why all this bluster from the SNP is just laughable, they look like a massive joke party. Now Theresa May has shown Scotland that a Conservative Prime Minster DOES listen to Scotland, and the SNP only represents themselves. And no I don't see the EU as the enemy, not when the UK will be out of the EU soon and we will be mostly just a trading partner with it. The EU can go ahead with their federalisation of one European nation just as long as the UK is well away from that nonsense. This post has been edited by PeaceMob: 17th March 2017, 03:56 PM |
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17th March 2017, 04:00 PM
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#118
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,128 User: 18,639
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The UK will be back in the EU soon enough. 80% of the younger generations want in. Wait.
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17th March 2017, 04:00 PM
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#119
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,128 User: 18,639
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Or what's left of it.
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17th March 2017, 04:04 PM
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#120
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,683 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(PeaceMob @ Mar 17 2017, 03:53 PM) The majority of the Scottish people do not want a second referendum so soon, Theresa May anticipated what Nicola Sturgeon would do and by refusing this referendum the PM knew that she would have the majority of Scotland backing her to refuse this referendum, that's why all this bluster from the SNP is just laughable, they look like a massive joke party. Now Theresa May has shown Scotland that a Conservative Prime Minster DOES listen to Scotland, and the SNP only represents themselves. And no I don't see the EU as the enemy, not when the UK will be out of the EU soon and we will be mostly just a trading partner with it. The EU can go ahead with their federalisation of one European nation just as long as the UK is well away from that nonsense. Would you like to explain what you mean by federalisation? By my definition, the two classic examples of a federal state are the USA and Germany. The federal constitution of Germany was written by British lawyers with the specific aim of limiting the power of central government. |
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