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 Eurovision Song Contest 2016 · Predictions |
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 7th May 2016, 09:05 PM
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#41
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 
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I was very tempted to push Belgium up a category, just can't shake the little uncertainty that it is a bit of a niché genre and Belgium doesn't have much support but the staging reminds me in a weird way of Cliché Love Song and that did very well so Laura should be safe and does probably deserve to move up a category!
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7th May 2016, 09:18 PM
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#42
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 I was born 7 million years ago in Sweden, Africa
Joined: 4 October 2010
Posts: 13,253 User: 11,955
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OK here's some revised semi predictions from moi, not changed anything too drastic since my last lot, of course Romania are now out so that's freed up a spot in Semi 2.
SEMI ONE 01. Armenia 02. Russia 03. Iceland 04. Malta 05. Azerbaijan 06. Bosnia & Herzegovina 07. Greece 08. Cyprus 09. Czech Republic 10. The Netherlands --- 11. Hungary 12. Estonia 13. Austria 14. Croatia 15. Finland 16. Moldova 17. San Marino 18. Montenegro SEMI TWO 01. Ukraine 02. Australia 03. Bulgaria 04. Belgium 05. Serbia 06. Latvia 07. Poland 08. Lithuania 09. Israel 10. Norway --- 11. Macedonia 12. Denmark 13. Belarus 14. Slovenia 15. Ireland 16. Georgia 17. Switzerland 18. Albania |
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7th May 2016, 09:22 PM
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#43
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 All I See br29
Joined: 17 August 2011
Posts: 12,907 User: 14,659
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That's a lot of faith in Armenia
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7th May 2016, 09:26 PM
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#44
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I was born 7 million years ago in Sweden, Africa
Joined: 4 October 2010
Posts: 13,253 User: 11,955
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QUOTE(Umi @ May 7 2016, 10:22 PM)  That's a lot of faith in Armenia Her live vocal is flawless and from what I hear/read about how it's going to be presented on screen, I can see this going one better than what Belgium and Latvia managed last year with similar avant garde songs (well in terms of Eurovision at least). |
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7th May 2016, 09:32 PM
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#45
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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Like Ryan, actual positions are a bit arbitrary so I predict the semis to go like this
SEMI ONE Definites Russia Iceland Malta Armenia Likely Bosnia & Herzegovina Netherlands Borderline IN Czech Republic Austria Greece Cyprus Bordine OUT Hungary Azerbaijan Unlikely Croatia Estonia Finland Gone Moldova San Marino Montenegro SEMI TWO Definites Ukraine Latvia Serbia Australia Likely Bulgaria Belgium Norway Borderline IN Lithuania Poland Israel Borderline OUT Macedonia Unlikely Denmark Georgia Ireland Belarus Gone Slovenia Albania Switzerland In term of what's changed, I'm putting Greece in on the basis that it does what it does relatively well (and I'd had them as 11th for ages in the knowledge that they'd make it in if somebody completely messed it up - looking at you Croatia!) and they've got a head start on most of the others in the semi anyways. Also fairly confident that Azerbaijan won't make it through a mix of bad vocals, the song being a bit *too* gay interest, the fact that what allies they have will have other songs like Russia and (for all but one) Armenia higher up the pecking order and the fact that even with a good amount of neighbourly and "friendly" votes they would have DNQ'd last year under the new voting system. In Semi 2 it's between the three B-League ballads in the first half with Poland, Israel and Macedonia for the last two spots to which I've put Macedonia out on the basis of most of their neighbors will have Serbia and Bulgaria higher up their priorities than them and that it just isn't, ultimately, that good of a song to the point where all that I think is majorly in their favor is the fact that Kaliopi is singing it. That said, all it takes is Lithuania to seriously mess it up and they'll all be through and my theory will be ruined! |
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7th May 2016, 09:39 PM
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#46
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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QUOTE(AdamAloud @ May 7 2016, 10:26 PM) Her live vocal is flawless and from what I hear/read about how it's going to be presented on screen, I can see this going one better than what Belgium and Latvia managed last year with similar avant garde songs (well in terms of Eurovision at least). I'm not as convinced it's the challenger that some people think it is. Rhythm Inside and Love Injected, whilst presented in a kind of "artsy" style, were at their basis still tightly constructed pop songs that people could latch onto immediately. LoveWave potentially runs the risk of people just not getting it and thinking it's just too much of an overblown, unstructured mess. |
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7th May 2016, 09:54 PM
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#47
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,420 User: 12,929               |
Did Bosnia have a good rehearsal or are we now assuming it will qualify because of strong televote support/being late on? It's a bit of a messy song and I'd still be putting it in with the borderline semi 1 lot.
Slightly contrary to that, I feel like LoveWave could be really impactful in the 'blown off one's feet after one listen' way the way it's sounding. That will be enough to overcome its messy structure, I feel it's got a near lock on for top 10. |
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7th May 2016, 09:58 PM
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#48
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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I think I was factoring in a messy stage-show in my previous borderline predictions for Bosnia when in fact it has turned out looking pretty good with strong vocals and perfect draw so I don't see why it can't follow in the footsteps of all other Balkan ballads now.
Agreed with Armenia, certain top 10 and I do think it could match Loic's result and sneak into the top 4 if everything goes right for it hence my each way bet! 
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8th May 2016, 02:57 PM
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#49
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üüü barracüda
Joined: 16 December 2009
Posts: 5,683 User: 10,222
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Having seen it live let me throw my 2 cents in
Semi-Final One 01 ► Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away 02 ► Greece: Argo - Utopian Land 03 ► Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars 04 Q Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer 05 Q Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 06 Q The Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down 07 Q Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 08 ► San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know 09 Q Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 10 Q Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand 11 Q Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego 12 ► Austria: ZOË - Loin d'ici 13 Q Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann - Play 14 ► Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle 15 ► Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing 16 Q Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling 17 ► Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je 18 Q Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water Semi-Final Two 01 Q Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat 02 ► Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 03 ► Switzerland: Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind 04 Q Israel: Hovi Star - Made Of Stars 05 Q Belarus: IVAN - Help You Fly 06 Q Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 07 Q Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 08 ► Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona 09 ► Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 10 Q Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 11 ► Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue And Red 12 Q Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 13 ► Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 14 Q Ukraine: Jamala - 1944 15 ► Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker 16 Q Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 17 ► Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 18 Q Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure 
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8th May 2016, 03:15 PM
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#50
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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Semi-Final One
01 Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away 02 Greece: Argo - Utopian Land 03 Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars 04 Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer 05 Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 06 The Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down 07 Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 08 San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know 09 Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 10 Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand 11 Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego 12 Austria: ZOË - Loin d'ici 13 Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann - Play 14 Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle 15 Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing 16 Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling 17 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je 18 Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water Semi-Final Two 01 Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat 02 Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 03 Switzerland: Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind 04 Israel: Hovi Star - Made Of Stars 05 Belarus: IVAN - Help You Fly 06 Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 07 Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 08 Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona 09 Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 10 Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 11 Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue And Red 12 Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 13 Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 14 Ukraine: Jamala - 1944 15 Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker 16 Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 17 Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 18 Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure |
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9th May 2016, 10:20 AM
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#51
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 20 January 2011 Posts: 5,907 User: 12,837
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I like Vülker's lay-out so I hope you don't mind me copying your style! Here's how I imagine this going:
Semi-Final One 01 ► Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away 02 ► Greece: Argo - Utopian Land 03 ► Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars 04 Q Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer 05 Q Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 06 Q The Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down 07 Q Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 08 ► San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know 09 Q Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 10 ► Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand 11 Q Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego 12 ► Austria: ZOË - Loin d'ici 13 Q Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann - Play 14 Q Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle 15 ► Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing 16 Q Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling 17 ► Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je 18 Q Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water Wildcards: Czech Republic, Austria and BiH (could replace any of Hungary/Croatia/Azerbaijan/Malta) Semi-Final Two 01 Q Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat 02 Q Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 03 ► Switzerland: Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind 04 Q Israel: Hovi Star - Made Of Stars 05 ► Belarus: IVAN - Help You Fly 06 Q Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 07 ► Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 08 Q Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona 09 ► Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 10 Q Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 11 ► Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue And Red 12 Q Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 13 ► Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 14 Q Ukraine: Jamala - 1944 15 Q Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker 16 ► Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 17 ► Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 18 Q Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure Wildcards: Lithuania and Denmark (could replace Poland/Israel/Macedonia) |
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9th May 2016, 08:10 PM
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#52
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üüü barracüda
Joined: 16 December 2009
Posts: 5,683 User: 10,222
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Watched the first dress rehearsal live and now at the jury rehearsal for SF1 and judging by the reactions I've got to swap Estonia for Austria in my previous prediction. Austria had a big cheer while Estonia's was quite muted. Also Estonia is not very memorable
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10th May 2016, 09:11 PM
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#53
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,050 User: 116
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Apr 18 2016, 02:59 PM) Semi-Final 1 1. Finland 2. Greece 3. Moldova 4. Hungary (9th) 5. Croatia 6. The Netherlands (6th) 7. Armenia (5th) 8. San Marino 9. Russia (1st) 10. Czech Republic 11. Cyprus (7th) 12. Austria (8th) 13. Estonia 14. Azerbaijan (4th) 15. Montenegro 16. Iceland (2nd) 17. Bosnia & Herzegovina (10th) 18. Malta (3rd) I got 8/10...no idea what happened there with Iceland and well done to Croatia, though I guess it 3rd with the bookies at one point! And congrats to Czech Republic who I'd have put through if I'd updated these predictions more recently... This post has been edited by gooddelta: 10th May 2016, 09:12 PM |
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10th May 2016, 09:28 PM
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#54
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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I make that 7/10 on the last one here and 8/10 on twitter. God dammit Croatia/Azerbaijan!
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10th May 2016, 09:34 PM
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#55
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üüü barracüda
Joined: 16 December 2009
Posts: 5,683 User: 10,222
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On my prediction scoresheet tonight I only failed Iceland for Croatia. I guess Greta should've wore something a lot more baffling. Such a shame.
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11th May 2016, 11:10 PM
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#56
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BuzzJack Idol
Joined: 29 June 2006
Posts: 128,434 User: 845
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From last nights qualifiers I think Russia as I have mentioned look likely winners on Saturday but I hope Austria, Cyprus and The Netherlands do well in the final and don't get lost. Im still surprised Malta went through and im even more surprised by some of the good odds it has.
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11th May 2016, 11:50 PM
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#57
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,050 User: 116
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Ira is an icon amongst Eurovision fans and I think her not getting through would have been a bigger shock.
That said, I think the odds are far too inflated and I can see Malta finishing anywhere between about 11th and 18th. I don't see it finishing top ten. |
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11th May 2016, 11:54 PM
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#58
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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I think Ira will most definitely finish bottom half now unless juries really go for it, the performance just fell flat for me and no doubt for many others. As I've said before, it was painfully obvious that they originally had a different concept (the "never seen before" projection technology) for their stage show as the stage felt so empty last night presumably due to ditching that concept and not having a plan B.
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13th May 2016, 12:27 AM
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#59
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BuzzJack Idol
Joined: 29 June 2006
Posts: 128,434 User: 845
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Im not getting the Ukraine hype in any way at all, in fact i thought the song was borderline rubbish.
My ideal top 5 result would be: 1st Russia 2nd Bulgaria 3rd Austria 4th Cyprus 5th The Netherlands. |
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13th May 2016, 05:17 PM
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#60
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Going to have another go at breaking it down so I can try and make sense of the mid-pack which will no doubt be very close as always.
Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction 01 01 04  Russia02 03 01  Australia03 02 03  Sweden04 04 02  Ukraine05 05 07  Armenia06 11 05  France07 06 12  Latvia08 10 08  The Netherlands09 14 10  Serbia10 08 17  Lithuania11 07 18  Austria12 17 09  Italy13 22 06  Malta14 12 16  Cyprus15 13 15  Bulgaria16 18 11  Israel17 09 25  Poland18 20 14  Croatia19 15 20  Belgium20 25 13  Czech Republic21 16 23  Georgia22 19 21  Azerbaijan23 21 19  Hungary24 23 22  United Kingdom25 24 26  Spain26 26 24  GermanyReserving the right to edit these after tonight's jury final!  (and before anyone asks I know Australia get a lower combined score than Russia but I'm factoring in that Russia will landslide the televote much more than Australia win the jury vote) |
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