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 Eurovision Song Contest 2017 · Predictions |
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 Mar 18 2017, 09:18 PM
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#1
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 Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342 
      
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As is tradition, I bring you the predictions thread.
• Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think • You will make some predictions that turn out to be wrong, that's the name of the game. The challenge will be to see if you can end up with comparatively less egg on your face than everyone else, just make sure you've thought through your bold assertions before you make them. • New information comes to light all the time between now and the live show so you can revise your predictions as often as you like (within reason though, obviously). • If you're Ryan and you say something ridiculous like "PKN are coming top of the televote" or "Zoe isn't qualifying" then prepare to be scalpT BuzzJack, start predicting NOW! |
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Mar 18 2017, 09:19 PM
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#2
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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And if you want to see how way off we were last year, this be last year's thread.
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Mar 18 2017, 09:58 PM
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#3
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 my anxiety attacks
Joined: 15 April 2009
Posts: 30,752 User: 8,674
       
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QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 18 2017, 09:18 PM)  • If you're Ryan and you say something ridiculous like "PKN are coming top of the televote" or "Zoe isn't qualifying" then prepare to be scalpT Or "Italy aren't winning"  Semi 1 Feel pretty confident on these Sweden Belgium Azerbaijan Portugal Think these are safe bets (in part due to past form) Armenia Greece Poland Australia In terms of quality, these SHOULD be through (but I worry these may be what we're weeping for on the evening of May 9th) Latvia Iceland -- These could sneak in Finland Moldova Montenegro Cyprus I would be shocked at these (and maybe a little disgusted) Slovenia Albania Georgia Czech Republic Semi 2 Will eat my hat etc. Romania Serbia Bulgaria Estonia Israel One of the best entries of the year (but it's MACEDONIA) Macedonia Don't really get this (but they've been in every final since 2011) Hungary Safe enough Belarus Final two picks Denmark Netherlands -- Not ruling it out (though in the case of Russia I f***ing wish I could!) Russia Austria Switzerland Norway Lithuania I'm ruling you out (unless Europe LIVES for the crazy!) Croatia Ireland Malta San Marino |
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Mar 18 2017, 10:02 PM
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#4
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 18 2017, 09:58 PM) Or "Italy aren't winning" Or QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 18 2017, 09:58 PM) Semi 1 Feel pretty confident on these Portugal
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Mar 18 2017, 10:06 PM
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#5
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 Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,004 User: 116
       
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1. Italy
No idea after that...! I don't think Sweden will be as high as second as the odds currently suggest, but beyond what I believe will be a relatively clear winner (as in, by at least 50 points) I don't know right now how things will line up underneath. |
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Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM
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#6
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my anxiety attacks
Joined: 15 April 2009
Posts: 30,752 User: 8,674
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QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 18 2017, 10:02 PM) Or I mean it does feel WRONG to be 'confident' on Portugal of all countries, especially when I consider the song a total bore myself (like third least favourite), but the odds and story around him have really drawn me in.. |
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Mar 18 2017, 10:23 PM
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#7
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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In longform, I rebute Portugal's status as a favorite.
(I was working on this one anyway, I'm not so quick at writing these that I can knock that out in five minutes, I hasten to add) |
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Mar 18 2017, 10:24 PM
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#8
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM) but the odds and story around him have really drawn me in.. Like how the odds and story around PKN resulted in them coming last in their semi? |
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Mar 18 2017, 10:26 PM
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#9
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THE BLAZE *.*
Joined: 27 December 2012
Posts: 24,309 User: 18,061
   
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I just want Switzerland, Azerbaijan and Denmark to somehow all qualify. I know Switzerland are esc flops but I live in hope
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Mar 18 2017, 10:33 PM
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#10
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,403 User: 12,929        
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I have not been understanding one bit the hype about Portugal either. There is so much nothing there on first listen, the song sounds ancient in style, there's HIM, and I think we've established that the elderly just don't vote as much as we think they do. Or at least they don't vote how we'd expect them to.
Lex sums it up perfectly in his article but I also feel compelled to share what I wrote about it a few days ago, I'm doing the whole entry overview thing from a position more of EMOTION and personal opinion, so as to not completely be stealing your thunder there Lex but I did talk a bit about how I expect it out, but on the borderline, I'm not quite as confident as Lex in predicting it straight out. I'm definitely going to attempt a full prediction soon. I got several things completely wrong on my first prediction in that thread last year so I want to be a bit more careful with how I approach this. |
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Mar 18 2017, 10:47 PM
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#11
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 All I See br29
Joined: 17 August 2011
Posts: 12,907 User: 14,659
 
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'Amar pelos dois' is basically the new 'Sognu', isn't it?
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Mar 19 2017, 12:12 AM
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#12
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Going to do mine by splitting up the jury and televote as when I did it last year I actually predicted Bosnia & H and Greece to DNQ. When I did my normal predictions I didn't have the guts to do it so it seemingly helps me be more objective about things! All predictions are calculated by adding the two votes together with lowest winning except for Romania who get a bit of a boost for being an easy televote winner.
Semi-Final One Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction 01 02 01  Belgium: Blanche - City Lights02 03 03  Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On03 06 04  Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy04 09 02  Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois05 01 14  Greece: Demy - This Is Love06 08 07  Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons07 05 13  Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me08 12 06  Iceland: Svala - Paper09 04 16  Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma10 16 05  Finland: Norma John - Blackbird11 07 15  Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight12 14 08  Albania: Lindita - World13 11 11  Latvia: Triana Park - Line14 13 10  Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith15 17 09  Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn16 15 12  Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity17 10 18  Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space18 18 17  Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My WaySemi-Final Two Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction 01 02 01  Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess02 05 02  Denmark: Anja - Where I Am03 07 03  The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows04 01 14  Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!05 03 11  Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona06 08 06  Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life07 12 04  Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo08 06 10  Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive09 10 08  F.Y.R. Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone10 11 09  Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep11 04 18  Russia: Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning12 18 05  Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly13 16 07  Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment14 09 16  Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend15 15 12  Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air16 13 15  Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo17 14 17  Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution18 19 13  Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try19 17 19  San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The NightI'll give individual reasons at some point like I did last year. Very very difficult to order them at this early stage and I'm sure I'll be making edits, but I am happy with my 2 top 10s there! I didn't add the votes up until after doing each separate half so I didn't know what my result was going to look like but it has come out similar to what I had in my head so I'm going with this. |
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Mar 19 2017, 12:45 AM
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#13
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All I See br29
Joined: 17 August 2011
Posts: 12,907 User: 14,659
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Are you basing your prediction for Serbia on Malta's performance last year? I can't see how they do anywhere near as poorly in the televote as that.
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Mar 19 2017, 12:52 AM
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#14
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I'm in a vewy bad mood, Bwadley.
Joined: 24 September 2008
Posts: 35,866 User: 7,117
  
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I think Romania's televote success might be being overestimated quite a bit, that's my prediction.
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Mar 19 2017, 12:52 AM
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#15
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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And I don't think Romania is going to be anywhere near as low as fourteenth with the jury. It's too much of a standard pop song to be universally snubbed in such a way.
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Mar 19 2017, 10:33 AM
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#16
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 29 April 2006
Posts: 3,392 User: 519
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In no particular order:
Semi 1 Australia Azerbaijan Belgium Sweden Portugal (could literally go either way) Armenia Cyprus Iceland (so long as they sort out the staging and styling) Latvia Poland (dyaspora and the song isn't COMPLETELY atrocious, so will probably sneak in) The token shock: realising Semi 1 is more competitive than previously thought, I think Greece may struggle again. I don't think the juries will be overly enthusiastic and it's too generic to pull in the televotes? Could be wrong... Semi 2 Denmark (total borderline though, it's generic as hell but will sneak in with it being a rather shoddy year) Hungary FYR Macedonia Romania Russia (jury may place this outside the top ten but televote will prop it upwards) Serbia Bulgaria Estonia (I hope... I can see this being a potential fanwank also) Israel Lithuania (dyaspora and a likely cleaned up version for Kiev will get it through) The token shock: Lithuania qualifying. This post has been edited by ScottyEm: Mar 19 2017, 10:44 AM |
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Mar 19 2017, 06:32 PM
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#17
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I was born 7 million years ago in Sweden, Africa
Joined: 4 October 2010
Posts: 13,253 User: 11,955
 
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Not doing specific positions yet, it's too hard without the running order/hints about staging.
Semi 1 Australia Azerbaijan Belgium Georgia Greece Iceland Latvia Moldova Poland Sweden Semi 2 Belarus Bulgaria Croatia Denmark Estonia Hungary Israel Macedonia Romania The Netherlands |
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Mar 19 2017, 07:39 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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QUOTE(Umi @ Mar 19 2017, 12:45 AM) Are you basing your prediction for Serbia on Malta's performance last year? I can't see how they do anywhere near as poorly in the televote as that. I wasn't actually but coming to think of it that could be a valid comparison there. In Too Deep is a very professionally produced pop song but there's nothing about it that makes me think people are going to rush to their phones to vote for it. I think juries will actually prefer it to televoters due to its contemporary nature. Of course we haven't seen Tijana live and she could be amazing, but from what I've seen and heard she doesn't seem to be anything particularly amazing or have a massive likeability factor (see Poli and potentially Jana). Serbia no longer have the advantage of being uptempo as the second half is filled with them and will be performed in better positions. Serbia's lack of televoting support on occasions has continued to surprise me also and I'm not getting caught out again! I still think she'll qualify of course, but I imagine her doing what Sanja did and squeeze through rather than be safely through. QUOTE(RobBob @ Mar 19 2017, 12:52 AM) I think Romania's televote success might be being overestimated quite a bit, that's my prediction. Yeah perhaps, there's nothing else in this semi that screams obvious televote winner so I've gone with the most memorable thing that isn't going to be overly polarising (see Croatia). QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 19 2017, 12:52 AM) And I don't think Romania is going to be anywhere near as low as fourteenth with the jury. It's too much of a standard pop song to be universally snubbed in such a way. That's just based on rap's horrendous record with juries. The only time I remember a rap song doing okay is Greece 2011 and even that was only 9th with prime running order slot. Indeed, with the current voting system Greece wouldn't won that semi overall - Azerbaijan would have done. |
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Mar 20 2017, 04:44 AM
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#19
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,160 User: 10,139
 
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I'll maybe do proper predix later but I am so prepared for Iceland to unjustly DNQ again
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Mar 20 2017, 07:28 PM
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#20
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 35,565 User: 44
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Always fun doing the first set of predictions. Probably wildly inaccurate, but here we go!
First Semi Final 01 Portugal 02 Belgium 03 Armenia 04 Azerbaijan 05 Moldova 06 Iceland 07 Sweden 08 Australia 09 Greece 10 Montenegro 11 Finland 12 Cyprus 13 Albania 14 Czech Republic 15 Latvia 16 Georgia 17 Poland 18 Slovenia Second Semi Final 01 Estonia 02 Hungary 03 Bulgaria 04 FYR Macedonia 05 Serbia 06 Israel 07 Romania 08 Belarus 09 Netherlands 10 Croatia 11 Russia 12 Austria 13 San Marino 14 Denmark 15 Norway 16 Switzerland 17 Lithuania 18 Ireland 19 Malta Final 01 Italy 02 Portugal 03 Armenia 04 Belgium 05 Estonia 06 Bulgaria 07 Iceland 08 Hungary 09 FYR Macedonia 10 Romania 11 Australia 12 Sweden 13 Spain 14 Azerbaijan 15 Montenegro 16 United Kingdom 17 Moldova 18 Serbia 19 France 20 Belarus 21 Greece 22 Israel 23 Ukraine 24 Croatia 25 Germany 26 Netherlands |
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