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Posted by: Ne Plus Ultra Oct 2 2015, 02:50 PM

It was just announced today that Sam Smith is rereleasing his monster album "In The Lonely Hour" with a "Drowning Shadows" edition on November 6th.



Not sure there will be a single promoting the album ("Writing's On The Wall" will do enough for it anyway, even though it doesn't feature on the re-release). Who do you think will sell the most?

I think it will be:

01 Ellie
02 Sam
03 Little Mix

Posted by: Joe. Oct 2 2015, 03:01 PM

I'd say Ellie, but Little Mix COULD do it as they pull off a great X Factor Performance.

Posted by: Pusheen Oct 2 2015, 03:14 PM

I don't think this is even much of a contest, with so little incentive to buy a new edition Sam's re-release probably won't be THAT big, while Little Mix have never had a #1 album whereas Ellie has had 2 of them which both sold really well. Also comparing the first weeks OA/OS for Ellie and Little Mix's new singles, Ellie appears to have more of a fanbase. So basically it'll be Ellie easily.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 2 2015, 03:30 PM

Ellie!

Posted by: Defaze Oct 2 2015, 03:40 PM

Yeah, I doubt it'll be particularly close; 'Salute' only sold a fraction of 'Halycon' (I know they opened on a similar amount, but Ellie has become much bigger since Oct 2012). That being said, I do think 'Get Weird' will debut on higher sales than 'Salute', but definitely not enough to topple 'Delirium'.

Posted by: These Days Oct 2 2015, 03:44 PM

Hope either Ellie or Little Mix get it but I have a feeling Sam will.

Posted by: Red. Oct 2 2015, 04:15 PM

Little Mix have no chance of a #1

Between Ellie and Sam. Hopefully Ellie!

Posted by: J▼hnkm Oct 2 2015, 04:17 PM

01 Ellie
02 Sam
03 Little Mix

So long as Get Weird sticks around over Christmas it'll be fine. And it probably will given Love Me Like You is pretty much tailor made for radio.

Posted by: Delincuentos Oct 2 2015, 04:46 PM

What kind of sales do we think delirium will open with? I only think about 60k

Posted by: SLlewellyn Oct 2 2015, 05:25 PM

Sam Smith's re-release will just ensure the album sells consistently over the Christmas period, I doubt it'll be enough for it to challenge for #1 against the likes of Ellie Goulding, Little Mix, 1D, Adele etc. all with new albums.

Ellie Goulding should win this battle though (6th November).

Posted by: joes18 Oct 6 2015, 09:56 PM

01 Ellie
02 Little Mix
03 Sam Smith

Posted by: liamk97 Oct 6 2015, 10:56 PM

Sam Smith will probably get back to #1 somehow - Emeli Sande did so back in 2012 with her re-release.

Posted by: Jonjo Oct 6 2015, 11:08 PM

01. Ellie
02. Sam
05. Little Mix

I really hope Little Mix can get another top 3 album, but for some reason I can't help but think they will be prevented by something! I'd say Ellie easily has this in the bag and although this is a re-release and there apparently being little incentive to buy it, I can see Sam getting a big boost back into the top 3! But I hope I'm wrong about Little Mix. But as long as they have longevity (which I can see happening, especially this era), I'll be happy!

Posted by: Hadji Oct 7 2015, 10:03 PM

The re-release of Sam's album would sell more if he included WOTW

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 9 2015, 09:32 AM

I know that stands for 'Writing On The Wall', but my first thought was 'War Of The Worlds. '

Posted by: Mango Oct 9 2015, 11:04 AM

What's the point in Sam re-releasing his album without a single to promote it and without WOTW on there?! I guess it would sell even if he just added a fart at the end of the album, but they could make an absolute killing if WOTW was included on it.

Posted by: Hadji Oct 9 2015, 11:31 AM

Let's hope he includes it on his second album. At least he included the CR version of LMD. He should have included the original version of both the Disclosure tracks he appeared on

Posted by: ElectroBoy Oct 9 2015, 12:11 PM

Sam = easy Number 1

Ellie = Number 2

Little Mix = Top 5 before dropping back

Posted by: The Hit Parade Oct 9 2015, 09:25 PM

I suppose he can't promote a new single in competition with the Bond theme, but the record company still want to take advantage of the publicity.

Posted by: Mack Oct 13 2015, 08:35 PM

Ellie Goulding for me followed by Sam Smith and Little Mix.

Posted by: ThePensmith Oct 13 2015, 09:03 PM

Seems a bit silly of them not to put 'Writing's on the Wall' on a repack surely? Even Take That put 'Rule the World' on the repacked 'Beautiful World' album! Regardless, I think he'll get #1 album again. Ellie and Little Mix will go top 10 as well.

Posted by: Joe. Nov 4 2015, 08:59 AM

I'm not as confident about Ellie taking the #1 as I was when I first voted in this.

I was thinking Ellie would sell possibly double what Little Mix sold but things are looking different on pre-orders.

17 Little Mix Get Weird (Deluxe Edition) (Also 376)
31 Ellie Goulding Delirium (Deluxe) (791)

I always find Amazon is a lot better when judging how albums will do.

Little Mix - 4/116
Ellie Goulding - 32/63

Ellie might clinch it due to the fact she has Graham Norton on Friday which always provides big album boosts, but Little Mix are looking to cause some upset and might get the number 1.

Posted by: Bré Nov 4 2015, 09:02 AM

Yeah, despite my confidence earlier in the thread, it is starting to look like LM have a decent chance. Very surprised at that considering their album chart histories but those pre-orders have to mean something ~

Posted by: gooddelta Nov 4 2015, 09:05 AM

Even if she doesn't debut there, Halcyon took a year or so to get to No.1 so maybe the same will happen to Delirium, if there are any strong singles still to come from it...

Little Mix's is more likely to enter high, hang around for Xmas and drop away in the new year but I do think it will be close between them and Ellie.

Posted by: NellyEverySundae Nov 4 2015, 09:21 AM

I think Ellie will probably do about 29-30k this week as its pre-order positions are quite similar to where Lana was with 'Honeymoon' (although she has some decent promotion lined up which could push her up further).

I was thinking about 35k for Little Mix.

Posted by: Viper* Nov 4 2015, 11:09 AM

I kind of strangely think there's a chance with a front loaded first week... Little Mix COULD do it. (I'm not a stan )

I think tbh, I'm just being hopeful that the hugely over rated Ms. Goulding doesn't get another #1 album.

Posted by: MrIndependent Nov 4 2015, 02:00 PM

I doubt that Sam Smith's re-issue will come in to the equation; I'm surprised that so many people have voted for it. Surely the highest In the Lonely Hour can hope for is #3, the same with Ed's re-issue the week following.

For me, this is a clear battle between Little Mix and Ellie Goulding. A month ago when this topic was created I, like most others, would've voted for Ellie, and even in her prediction thread I was sure that she'd be #1. However, it will be a lot closer than I originally thought, and I voted for Little Mix because the signs are now pointed towards them outselling her.

I'm not a massive fan of Little Mix, but I do think that they are due a #1 album after previously charting higher with their lead singles. I cannot stand Ellie Goulding and Sam Smith, so this will be approved by me.

Posted by: Hadji Nov 4 2015, 02:48 PM

I fear Little Mix will beat Ellie Goulding

Posted by: pippa Nov 4 2015, 02:53 PM

Ellie Goulding.

Posted by: tomwright123 Nov 4 2015, 03:27 PM

I also think this is going to be a close one, I hope Little Mix will have enough to get that no.1 as I feel they deserve it. They're X Factor performance last Sunday was miles better than Ellie's. Not to forget that the girls also have a spot on Alan Carr lined up this weekend!

Posted by: Joe. Nov 4 2015, 04:19 PM

That's next weekend. Bieber is performing WDYM? (again) on Carr this weekend.

Posted by: Common Sense Nov 4 2015, 04:20 PM

Well I think Ellie but Elvis could surprise us all and continue to sell a lot!

Posted by: Hadji Nov 4 2015, 04:22 PM

And EG is on Graham Norton this weekend so she may have an advantage over LM

Posted by: Letsjust29 Nov 4 2015, 04:55 PM

Havn't both Ellie and LM debuted similar in first week last time? Both around 30k? I think both could debut with higher sales this time. My gut says Ellie has a leg up on digital preorders

I think this LM album will stick around through christmas with the different tv events coming up,etc. They could potentially sell more than the last album.

Ellie wil rerelease in a year no matter what. Lol

Posted by: MrIndependent Nov 4 2015, 10:17 PM

Why is he not performing Sorry? I hope that he changes this at last minute.

As for the sales, Little Mix have usually opened up with higher first week sales than Ellie anyway, haven't they? Their lower positions have came from the fact that they have always released at a competitive time in the year, whereas Ellie so far hasn't. I think that people are underestimating Little Mix's opening amount, and Ellie's first week tally might be a little low in people's minds too, but she certainly won't hit a large amount.

If there's one thing that people are overestimating about Ellie, it's her supposed superstar status. She just had an album that sold very well over time, gaining a second wind because of a re-release, and Halycon Days or whatever its title is hit #1 because of a sale in the new year. That album didn't sell very well upon its initial release, and neither did Lights. There's no reason why this one won't do the same, although if the album had been released during Love Me Like You Do's reign, it probably would've opened up with a higher sale than it will do, even with it being released during the fourth quarter.

Posted by: Letsjust29 Nov 4 2015, 11:50 PM

They both sold around 30k first week last time. Not counting Ellie's rerelease

I think ellie will also have better streams.

Posted by: Umi Nov 4 2015, 11:52 PM

I don't think there's any real chance that Ellie will get the #1. Little Mix have the momentum and the fanbase, Ellie has... a limp lead single and "Wow she is really shit live" backlash.

Posted by: shindymindy Nov 4 2015, 11:58 PM

Little Mix up to 4 on amazon

Posted by: Joe. Nov 5 2015, 11:49 AM

They've been 4 (also 93) all week. Ellie is only 26 (also 85) - Considering the album is released tomorrow, that's rather poor.


On iTunes:
Little Mix 19 (Deluxe) and 295 (standard)
Ellie 25 (Deluxe) and standard is out of the top 1,500

Posted by: MrIndependent Nov 5 2015, 01:01 PM

I don't think that there's really a set standard for which service is better for predicting sales out of iTunes and Amazon. Observing their progressions over the years, both are now much more pivotal than they once were, with digital sales in the album chart playing a fairly large part in an album's overall tally, and Amazon simply just being one of the companies that most people seem to use, but it's still not a big outlet for sales at all. Physical copies bought still remain the cream of the crop for most artists' albums, and will probably continue to do so for a number of years -- decades -- yet, even with the declining market.

We can't really tell what Little Mix and Ellie Goulding are going to sell from their iTunes and Amazon positions, although it's interesting to see the large distinction in their positions nonetheless.

Posted by: JesyMix Nov 6 2015, 07:09 AM

Little Mix have a ticket bundle that includes the purchase of their album for their 2016 arena tour. If enough people took advantage of that offer, it could give them an edge over Ellie.

Posted by: JimmyT Nov 6 2015, 10:14 PM

Little Mix have been #2 and Ellie #5 on iTunes most the day..is Ellie underperforming?

Posted by: Joe. Nov 6 2015, 10:18 PM

At the moment, very slightly. But she'll be less frontloaded than Little
Mix, not to mention she has Graham Norton later tonight which often has massive effects on the album charts.

Posted by: Letsjust29 Nov 6 2015, 10:52 PM

According to HitsDd, she also has an xfactor spot airing this weekend. I think she has the edge with Graham and the advert. But, they are actually preforming at almost all the same tv events after first week. So they should both be stable later on.

I know Polydor believes this is going to be her biggest selling album. I assume they mean without being re-released. Which i can see.

Posted by: vidcapper Nov 8 2015, 11:19 AM

I don't think it helps that Amazon seem to be losing the plot where CD albums are concerned - they're asking 12.99 for the deluxe version of Ellie's new album, never mind the extra £2 for delivery - I was able to buy it for just £12 all-in from Sainsburys.

Posted by: MrIndependent Nov 8 2015, 11:21 AM

That's nothing unusual at all. It has nothing to do with her underperformance.

Posted by: MrIndependent Nov 8 2015, 11:21 AM

.

Posted by: MrIndependent Nov 8 2015, 11:21 AM

LOL SORRY. My computer is playing up.

Posted by: Joe. Nov 8 2015, 11:27 AM

It it's looking very likely at being Elvis number 1 and maybe even Beatles number 2. Nobody called that on the poll.

Posted by: vidcapper Nov 8 2015, 11:48 AM

But they wouldn't know that when they set the price, surely?

Posted by: Hadji Nov 8 2015, 01:44 PM

Ellie now ahead of Little Mix on iTunes

Posted by: The Hit Parade Nov 8 2015, 03:59 PM

Yeah, exactly, £12:99 is a normal price for a CD album. I can remember expecting to pay that much for standard editions.
It's £12:99 from HMV as well, although you can also buy an EP of remixes for £2 that gives you £2 off the album. Or you can wait six months until they reissue it with two new singles on it, of course.