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| How long will Ed Sheeran stay at #1, with Shape of You |
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  Jan 13 2017, 10:16 PM
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#1
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 Infamy Infamy they all got it in for me
Joined: 5 March 2006
Posts: 129,134 User: 2 
      
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Well... I was just thinking with his opening sales of 226,808, could be looking at 9-10 weeks, its so difficult to tell as there is hardly new material out, I know Major Lazer has a new single to drop soon, but I don't think it will get there. No point in adding 2 weeks, I just broke it down a bit.
The Album has been given a release date of March 3rd (Source: OCC) |
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Jan 13 2017, 10:19 PM
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#2
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 10 February 2008
Posts: 43,170 User: 5,392
   
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10wks
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Jan 13 2017, 10:27 PM
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#3
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,540 User: 11,746
        
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8 weeks, and Ed will knock himself off #1 with whatever album track gets instantly popular.
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Jan 14 2017, 12:29 AM
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#4
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
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I think Castle On The Hill may knock.Shape Of You off in two weeksor so, depending on COTH's AirPlay.
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Jan 14 2017, 03:38 AM
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#5
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 16 November 2009
Posts: 7,591 User: 9,988
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All year.
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Jan 14 2017, 10:05 AM
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#6
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 10 April 2016
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I put 4 weeks although it could be a lot more without decent competition.
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Jan 14 2017, 10:18 AM
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#7
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 6 July 2015
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To break it down:
Streaming: Average number one recently has about 4.5 to 5 million. The half life of One Dance (from peak of ~9M to ~4.5M) was about 10 weeks. If Shape of You decays at the same rate it'll be hitting 6.5M in about the same time, which now equates to 45K in chart money. Sales: Here I think Hello is the closest comparison - it decayed to 20% over 5 weeks. That would be about 25K. Combined sales: Using the above Shape of You would have ~50K after 10 weeks. That is on the cusp - the lowest number one combined sales recently was 59K but 70-80 is more usual. A lot might depend on whether the album release gives the song a boost - personally I don't think it will be significant. More interesting, perhaps is how long Ed can monopolise the number one (as Bieber did) with tracks from the album. Could he get to Easter? Seems possible. |
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Jan 15 2017, 11:43 AM
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#8
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i can only do one normal thing a day
Joined: 25 July 2011
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'Shape Of You' sounds like it was almost created with the intention of being a 10+ week number one (which could easily happen, until something else huge comes along)
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Jan 15 2017, 11:54 AM
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#9
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 22 December 2009
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Is this about Shape of You or Ed Sheeran as an artist? He'll replace himself at #1 with next song he'll release
So I say 5 weeks for SOY This post has been edited by SKOB: Jan 15 2017, 11:55 AM |
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Jan 15 2017, 01:00 PM
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#10
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 12 March 2006
Posts: 2,145 User: 194
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Until April at least
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Jan 15 2017, 01:05 PM
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#11
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 16 February 2010
Posts: 646 User: 10,655
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Agree with others saying Ed will replace himself at number one.
Shape Of You will probably be #1 until around the Brits, then he could perform a new track will will go to #1, then the album will be released about 2 weeks later and the chart will be an Ed Sheeran massacre. |
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Jan 15 2017, 02:34 PM
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#12
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 BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 3 January 2017
Posts: 10,139 User: 23,961
 
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He said on Radio 1 that he expected Castle to overtake Shape after a few weeks as it's more of a grower so I voted for 3 weeks.
This post has been edited by King Rollo: Jan 15 2017, 02:35 PM |
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Jan 15 2017, 04:19 PM
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#13
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
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The high number of real sales could limit his time at the top. After all, those people aren't going to buy the song(s) again and they won't contribute any streams. Unless, of course, he releases one or both songs on CD with b-sides that will only ever be available on that CD!
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Jan 15 2017, 04:48 PM
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#14
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 I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
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I think he'll probably perform 'Castle...' at the Brits, which will push it ahead then. Until then we've probably got 'Shape of You' as #1.
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Jan 15 2017, 05:19 PM
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#15
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 18 April 2013
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10 weeks for me. Either consisting of just Shape of You or both of them
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Jan 16 2017, 02:47 AM
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#16
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 19 April 2015
Posts: 162 User: 21,769
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What is Sam Smith doing right now?
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Jan 16 2017, 03:29 AM
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#17
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The horrors persist, but so do I
Joined: 14 July 2013
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QUOTE(burbe @ Jan 15 2017, 11:48 AM)  I think he'll probably perform 'Castle...' at the Brits, which will push it ahead then. Until then we've probably got 'Shape of You' as #1. Good point, that seems likely to me too. So 6-7 weeks for 'Shape Of You', the Brits are on a Wednesday so the Brits effect may be split between two chart weeks. |
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Jan 17 2017, 07:00 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 4 April 2015
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QUOTE(ankietarrr @ Jan 16 2017, 02:47 AM) What is Sam Smith doing right now? He's probably at home having his dinner. |
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Jan 17 2017, 07:02 PM
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#19
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 19 December 2015
Posts: 20,102 User: 22,776
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QUOTE(Houdini @ Jan 17 2017, 07:00 PM) He's probably at home having his dinner. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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