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> By-elections 2024, New parliament, new thread
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Iz 🌟
post Apr 6 2021, 08:03 AM
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Yeah I would imagine that all of those 3rd-party vote totals will be bigger, I'd call out about 10-15% split between them.

Hartlepool has been Labour since its creation so losing it would be a huge blow to Labour, a seat that Corbyn held, that held on through all the struggles of the 80s, so I wouldn't say that if it did go it reflects entirely badly on Starmer's leadership (though it certainly would be a very bad look that would indicate his current strategy is wrong for keeping these kinds of seats), but that if the Tories did win this, then they've effectively expanded their coalition of voters over and above Labour's.

Main thing I'm now interested in watching is that if that poll plays out, whether the NIP votes exceed the vote gap.
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Iz 🌟
post Apr 6 2021, 08:07 AM
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btw I do think NIP are a riot from my position as a solely social media observer, actually having fun with their campaign, a solid set of branding and ideals, and a great environment for them to test the waters of a left nationalist party in even if it does risk Labour an MP. I think they will exceed 2%.

I reckon even if Labour do lose it it's a likely flip back at the next GE unless this is the beginning of true pasokification.
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Harve
post Apr 6 2021, 04:25 PM
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QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Apr 6 2021, 10:03 AM) *
Yeah I would imagine that all of those 3rd-party vote totals will be bigger, I'd call out about 10-15% split between them.

Hartlepool has been Labour since its creation so losing it would be a huge blow to Labour, a seat that Corbyn held, that held on through all the struggles of the 80s, so I wouldn't say that if it did go it reflects entirely badly on Starmer's leadership (though it certainly would be a very bad look that would indicate his current strategy is wrong for keeping these kinds of seats), but that if the Tories did win this, then they've effectively expanded their coalition of voters over and above Labour's.

Main thing I'm now interested in watching is that if that poll plays out, whether the NIP votes exceed the vote gap.

It would obviously be disastrous if Labour lost the seat and there's no spinning that, but the by-election is likely to have very low turnout compared to a General Election (and indeed one reason to distrust that constituency poll is that so many of a supposedly representative sample of voters believe they will vote) so nobody will be expanding their raw voter numbers here. It would, however, be a sign that Tory enthusiasm/get out the vote operation is better at the very least.
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Steve201
post Apr 6 2021, 09:59 PM
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Looks like that bloody Corbyn is now costing Labour seats it won twice under his leadership
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 8 2021, 07:07 PM
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There are SIXTEEN candidates running in the Hartlepool by-election, the most for a by-election in a long time I believe:

SDP - David Bettney
Monster Raving Loony - The Incredible Flying Brick
North East - Hilton Dawson
Women's Equality - Gemma Evans
Green - Rachel Featherstone
Independent - Adam Gaines
Liberal Democrats - Andrew Hagon
Freedom Alliance - Steve Jack
No description - Chris Killick
Independent - Sam Lee
Heritage Party (UK) - Claire Martin
Conservative - Jill Mortimer
Reform UK - John Prescott (not that one)
Independent - Thelma Walker
Independent - W. Ralph Ward-Jackson
Labour - Paul Williams

The party with the racist acronym failed to fill in their paperwork correctly, so Thelma Walker is listed as an Independent on the ballot. Quite a few parties taking part in their first by-election, like the North East Party, Freedom Alliance (an anti-lockdown party), and the Brexit continuity party, Reform UK.
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Steve201
post Apr 8 2021, 07:18 PM
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Is the SDP the party formed in 1981?
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 8 2021, 07:20 PM
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Apr 8 2021, 08:18 PM) *
Is the SDP the party formed in 1981?


It's their continuity version that kept going after the Liberal-SDP merger. They had a boost in their membership circa-2019, where a lot of "weird Catholic Twitter" ended up joining them, but the majority of them left by the end of the year due to introducing some policies that were viewed as anti-Semitic and anti-Islamic. Quite a lot of ex-Ukippers now make up the party.
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Steve201
post Apr 8 2021, 09:27 PM
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What a strange turn for them lol, must be so small that any group can influence if they join.
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Iz 🌟
post Apr 9 2021, 02:55 AM
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Shame that Northern Independence couldn't make it on (I'd imagine that most would think of a short version of 'nipple' before a dated racial slur but it might be wise for them to address that, maybe just their Twitter handle - Free North Now - would be better, FNN doesn't have any bad connotations). As far as I can understand by browsing Twitter their original application was rejected on a minor technical omission in their party constitution and they resubmitted the same day they were informed but too late. That will probably cost them their deposit having to refer to Walker as 'an independent backed by the Northern Independence Party' though I'd still think she has a good chance of coming third.

This is a good article I've read that matches my thoughts on why I am taking them seriously as a prospect for now even though I acknowledge that at the moment they have some things to take care of, like filling in forms correctly: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20...party-seriously. There's a lot of historical Labour practices towards the north that are not currently in the party's platform and are in the kind of ideas that Northern Independence are advocating.

Wouldn't call them amateurish though, surely a good part of their appeal is their ability to use rhetoric outside of the box and liven up politics, anyone chastising them for their lack of formality is missing a lot of the point of political disengagement by many voters.
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Smint
post May 4 2021, 12:00 PM
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Absolutely shocking poll today puts the Tories SEVENTEEN points ahead of Labour in the Hartlepool by election. Remember this is a seat that has never voted Tory. So depressing that they get away with it again and again...
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Brett-Butler
post May 4 2021, 12:03 PM
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QUOTE(Smint @ May 4 2021, 01:00 PM) *
Absolutely shocking poll today puts the Tories SEVENTEEN points ahead of Labour in the Hartlepool by election. Remember this is a seat that has never voted Tory. So depressing that they get away with it again and again...


I’d take that poll with a pinch of salt as the methodology was rather flawed, but as it stands I do think it’ll be a Tory win, albeit not one as emphatic as that.
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Smint
post May 4 2021, 12:07 PM
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I just hope that in the Scottish parliamaeant the SNP (plus other independence parties) do well enough to wipe the smile off the Tories face this Thursday with a mandate for Indyref2.
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Steve201
post May 4 2021, 12:09 PM
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Whether a it’s 17 points or 5 points a Tory win would be ridiculous there. Looks like turning centre has just meant losing votes to the greens/NIP and right votes to the tories!
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Silas
post May 4 2021, 12:26 PM
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Flawed tho the poll may be, it shows that it’s not just the Greens/NIP that is taking support. There is a failure to recapture the vote that went ukip/Brexit in the past that once upon a time was labour or death.

Fundamentally, labour finds itself on the wrong side of the argument in Scotland and the North from its core vote base and does literally nothing to reconcile that while bemoaning the loss of support and blaming literally everything apart from the actual things causing them to lose votes.
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Anita Hanjaab
post May 4 2021, 12:36 PM
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Will Keir resign?
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Steve201
post May 4 2021, 01:23 PM
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Course he won’t resign lol!

He should just learn to steer left and build on his competence as leader to work to gain voters back!
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Rooney
post May 4 2021, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE(steve201 @ May 4 2021, 02:23 PM) *
Course he won’t resign lol!

He should just learn to steer left and build on his competence as leader to work to gain voters back!


It's nothing to do with that. Labour are going to lose Hartlepool and they would have lost it in 2019 too. Suspect it will be a lot closer than the polling suggests, but clear as mud the Tories have a great chance of winning it. And guess what, they would have lost a whole other seats too which they won in 2019 because Brexit Party split the vote. It's not a rejection of Starmer's Labour, but it's not an acceptance of it either.

I can understand why people in Hartlepool might vote Tories in, only for 3 years, chance of relocating jobs there and extra money from the central Government. Not exactly a hard spin when you can have Boris parading round there either saying how much he loves Hartlepool.
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Iz 🌟
post May 4 2021, 02:22 PM
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I do not trust that that poll is close to the reality, but in Hartlepool specifically, Conservative win seems likely. More perhaps for Conservative promising the North for investment (in agreement with you there Rooney), but definitely a problem for Labour that they are looking to lose a seat they held in 2019 and held very well in 2017, against an incumbent government.

I do however think that Labour will end up doing quite okay from the local elections, but will lose Hartlepool and that'll be the big headline because one seat in Parliament representing an idiosyncratic constituency is apparently more reflective of the country and more dramatic to columnists than the thousands of councillors being elected across the nation.

QUOTE(Rooney @ May 4 2021, 02:10 PM) *
It's nothing to do with that. Labour are going to lose Hartlepool and they would have lost it in 2019 too. Suspect it will be a lot closer than the polling suggests, but clear as mud the Tories have a great chance of winning it. And guess what, they would have lost a whole other seats too which they won in 2019 because Brexit Party split the vote. It's not a rejection of Starmer's Labour, but it's not an acceptance of it either.


There's very little evidence that Brexit Party voters in 2019 would have gone to the Tories, these are anti-system votes that would go the Lib Dems, would go to UKIP, would variously over the years go to anyone that isn't representing the neoliberal establishment or is trying to screw them from their vote (which I'm saying as the numbers from Hartlepool suggest they went to Corbyn in 2017, but left him in 2019). Whether those of that cohort that'd bother to vote in a by-election would now vote for the Tories as they've 'got Brexit done' is anyone's guess, but that type of voter especiallly tends to focus on what's being promised, not what's been done.
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Rooney
post May 4 2021, 02:37 PM
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While I get your point about the Brexit Party voters, I suspect if Farage was not standing candidates in a large amount of areas, a LOT of the votes would have gone for the Tories (look at Doncaster and Barnsley for example) - where do these voters go now. I'm not saying some of the voters were not anti-establishment, but a lot of them were Brexit related. And like I said before, how many of us commenting actual live in the North? Let me tell you, it is grim up here. If the Tories come and offer investment, central Government money etc. that's a massive vote win. It's interesting in the polling data a lot of people seem to have no idea Brexit has been reformed as Reform. Farage barely gets any airtime these days as he has nothing to talk about, so that is not too surprising.
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Oliver
post May 4 2021, 04:40 PM
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Totally agree there Rooney regarding the north east, investment opportunities was one of the main reasons Blyth Valley (along with Brexit) went to the Tories (something which I didn’t think I’d see for a very long time, and even then thought it would be Lib Dems)... Ronnie Campbell had become very lacklustre around here and I’m not surprised it took something like Brexit to change things.
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