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 Eurovision Song Contest 2016 · Odds, Top 5 | Russia · Australia · Ukraine · France · Sweden |
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 10th May 2016, 09:08 PM
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#61
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 Who's Daniel btw ?
Joined: 28 October 2006
Posts: 15,594 User: 1,804 
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So here are the 8 eliminated countries and how they ranked in the odds :
17 Iceland 30 Estonia 32 Finland 35 Bosnia 36 Greece 37 Montenegro 39 Moldova 40 San Marino So basically only Iceland is a surprise. |
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11th May 2016, 11:44 AM
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#62
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Someone on Sofabet has found potential evidence of a "bot" driving down odds for Russia, with the equivalent of 1500 euros being bet on Betfair (I think) multiple times which you'd consider is too much of a coincidence. So maybe their favourite status is a little manipulated just like Armenia's a couple of years ago?
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11th May 2016, 12:35 PM
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#63
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Who's Daniel btw ?
Joined: 28 October 2006
Posts: 15,594 User: 1,804
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QUOTE(Ryan. @ May 11 2016, 11:44 AM)  Someone on Sofabet has found potential evidence of a "bot" driving down odds for Russia, with the equivalent of 1500 euros being bet on Betfair (I think) multiple times which you'd consider is too much of a coincidence. So maybe their favourite status is a little manipulated just like Armenia's a couple of years ago? Sorry I'm new at this, what does it mean? That Russia is not as popular on odds as it seems to be? |
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11th May 2016, 12:41 PM
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#64
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Potentially yes. I'm not completely knowledgeable on the subject of "bots" myself but I think it is something along the lines of money being spent by a country to drive their own odds shorter and shorter in order to maximise hype and press coverage which then has the consequence of making everyone else's odds drift. Armenia were rumoured to have done this in 2014 which saw them as odds-on favourites only to finish 4th in the end, and never in contention against Austria and the Netherlands.
We won't know how much their odds are being manipulated, but even if they are I expect Russia would still be favourites - just not odds-on favourites as they are now. |
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11th May 2016, 12:47 PM
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#65
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Who's Daniel btw ?
Joined: 28 October 2006
Posts: 15,594 User: 1,804
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QUOTE(Ryan. @ May 11 2016, 12:41 PM) Potentially yes. I'm not completely knowledgeable on the subject of "bots" myself but I think it is something along the lines of money being spent by a country to drive their own odds shorter and shorter in order to maximise hype and press coverage which then has the consequence of making everyone else's odds drift. Armenia were rumoured to have done this in 2014 which saw them as odds-on favourites only to finish 4th in the end, and never in contention against Austria and the Netherlands. This is a bit risky since as a result, other countries and juries might show less support to the favourite in order to maximise the chances of their own country. |
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11th May 2016, 03:54 PM
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#66
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,071 User: 116
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My annual bets...only two as I can only afford a tenner:
£3 each way on Bulgaria at 80/1 £2 each way on Sweden at 12/1 |
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11th May 2016, 04:36 PM
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#67
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 10 July 2008
Posts: 2,146 User: 6,614
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What on earth happened with Bulgaria? Huge slump in the odds compared to a week or two ago.
Russia currently running away with it, but the above bot talk makes interesting reading... |
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11th May 2016, 04:45 PM
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#68
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,071 User: 116
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QUOTE(BillyH @ May 11 2016, 05:36 PM) What on earth happened with Bulgaria? Huge slump in the odds compared to a week or two ago. Russia currently running away with it, but the above bot talk makes interesting reading... It's so sad  I'm worried about Poli qualifying at this point...I believe it's the reaction to the rehearsals that have caused Bulgaria to slip so far but I'm praying she pulls out all the stops tomorrow and gets a brilliant draw if she gets to the final. I'll be most unimpressed if the best song of the year flops hard.
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11th May 2016, 04:57 PM
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#69
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 29 April 2006
Posts: 3,392 User: 519
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I don't know what's happened to Bulgaria either. I'm coming to the conclusion on the basis that she's fell by default due to a lot of past outsiders have gone up in the odds. Given so many semi final 2 entries have odds of over 300/1, in taking some comfort from that. This is easily my favourite entry this year too. A catchy, chart-ready track - surely the jury will reward it?!
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11th May 2016, 05:13 PM
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#70
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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I think she'll be fine, admittedly I'm less convinced than I was this time last week. Bulgaria usually get enough televotes, both Sofi and Elitsa & Stoyan would've qualified on televotes I believe but juries brought them down. Juries should reward this however as they usually support radio-friendly songs. My only concern is that Belgium take up the majority of female party song votes which could leave Poli struggling but I'm pretty sure she'll be ok at this point. I really want Poli and Laura to safely progress though!
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11th May 2016, 05:19 PM
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#71
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 2 December 2015
Posts: 145 User: 22,719 
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Quite hard to judge this year so went with 5 different bets
Russia Spain Serbia (my personal favourite, surprised its at 66/1) Ukraine Armenia This post has been edited by XhannahlongX: 11th May 2016, 05:20 PM |
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13th May 2016, 02:38 PM
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#72
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Prior to tonight's jury final, here are the latest odds. As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with ties split by latest Betfair Exchange odds. The positions in brackets were the positions in the previous odds update earlier this week.
01 (01) | 08/13 |  Russia · Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One02 (05) | 005/1 |  Australia · Dami Im - Sound Of Silence03 (02) | 011/1 |  Ukraine · Jamala - 194404 (03) | 014/1 |  France · Amir - J'ai cherché05 (04) | 020/1 |  Sweden · Frans - If I Were Sorry06 (07) | 033/1 |  Armenia · Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave07 (06) | 050/1 |  Malta · Ira Losco - Walk On Water08 (08) | 100/1 |  Italy · Francesca Michielin - No Degree Of Separation09 (18) | 100/1 |  Belgium · Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure10 (10) | 100/1 |  Israel · Hovi Star - Made Of Stars11 (14) | 100/1 |  Latvia · Justs - Heartbeat12 (11) | 100/1 |  The Netherlands · Douwe Bob - Slow Down13 (24) | 100/1 |  Austria · ZOË - Loin d'ici14 (12) | 150/1 |  United Kingdom · Joe and Jake - You're Not Alone15 (13) | 150/1 |  Bulgaria · Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime16 (09) | 150/1 |  Serbia · Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter)17 (16) | 200/1 |  Spain · Barei - Say Yay!18 (19) | 200/1 |  Poland · Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life19 (22) | 200/1 |  Cyprus · Minus One - Alter Ego20 (29) | 300/1 |  Lithuania · Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night21 (20) | 300/1 |  Croatia · Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse22 (33) | 300/1 |  Georgia · Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold23 (15) | 300/1 |  Czech Republic · Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand24 (21) | 300/1 |  Hungary · Freddie - Pioneer25 (25) | 350/1 |  Azerbaijan · Samra - Miracle26 (26) | 500/1 |  Germany · Jamie-Lee - Ghost
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13th May 2016, 03:17 PM
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#73
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 Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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Interesting thing to ponder on stat wise, in years when the pre-contest favorite hasn't won the contest, the winner has always been the song that has been rising up the betting markets in the run up to the-final (Azerbaijan in 2011, Austria in 2014). Given the evidence that has also been found so far this year of Russia using bots to keep their odds artificially low, I'm inclined to believe that Australia and Russia will be in a tighter race for the win than those odds suggest.
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13th May 2016, 05:36 PM
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#74
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 10 July 2008
Posts: 2,146 User: 6,614
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As if the UK's gonna do better than Bulgaria.
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13th May 2016, 06:23 PM
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#75
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,071 User: 116
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ May 11 2016, 04:54 PM) My annual bets...only two as I can only afford a tenner: £3 each way on Bulgaria at 80/1 £2 each way on Sweden at 12/1 Adding to these...as I sold some old games today to fuel my Eurovision gambling addiction  Or really just because it makes the final even more exciting to watch!£5.25 each way on Australia to win at 4/1 50p on Malta to finish last at 80/1 (don't hate me Ira...I just feel like this is being WAY overpredicted in the odds, even though it's hardly going to come last, but it's worth a 50p shot) £1 on Poland to finish last at 25/1 £1 on Azerbaijan to finish last at 12/1 £1 on Czech Republic to finish last at 8/1 £1 on Cyprus to finish last at 25/1 |
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14th May 2016, 10:05 AM
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#76
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 4 March 2010
Posts: 3,526 User: 10,742
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Odds shouldn't have existed. They promote specific countries every time and they always have an effect. I hope they will fail this year and we will have an unexpected winner!
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14th May 2016, 04:26 PM
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#77
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Australia are closing in on Russia rapidly here, down to less than 2/1 in places while Russia are nearly back up to Evens after being as low as 1/2 yesterday!
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14th May 2016, 04:28 PM
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#78
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,125 User: 3,474
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Not surprised. Dami absolutely KILLED it yesterday
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14th May 2016, 06:53 PM
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#79
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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Russia are reportedly on the brink of losing the top spot in the betting! AUSSIES ASSEMBLE!
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14th May 2016, 06:55 PM
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#80
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,610 User: 11,746
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So ... It's about to start in 5 mins!!!
I will be watching with my parents. Mum is disappointed that Belarus didn't qualify as she wanted to see the performance with him naked with wolves in the final
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