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> 2024 Singles Year To Date Estimates, With approximate sales
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JulianT
post 20th March 2024, 06:00 PM
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Week 11:

1 1 759,000 Noah Kahan - Stick Season (1.28m)
2 2 427,000 Sophie Ellis-Bextor - Murder On The Dancefloor (1.43m)
3 3 405,000 Teddy Swims - Lose Control (500k)
4 4 356,000 Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me (680k)
5 5 320,000 Cassö with Raye & D Block Europe - Prada (920k)
6 7 309,000 Ariana Grande - Yes, And?
7 9 302,000 Benson Boone - Beautiful Things
8 6 301,000 Tate McRae - Greedy (760k)
9 8 279,000 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer (1.47m)
10 10 274,000 Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em

11 11 238,000 Kenya Grace - Strangers (760k)
12 12 227,000 Dua Lipa - Houdini (380k)
13 13 214,000 Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire (970k)
14 14 209,000 Tyler - Water (570k)
15 15 204,000 YG Marley - Praise Jah In The Moonlight
16 16 201,000 Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten (1.38m)
17 17 193,000 The Weeknd featuring Playboi Carti & Madonna - Popular (580k)
18 18 181,000 Billy Gillies featuring Hannah Boleyn - DNA (430k)
19 19 180,000 Fred Again… and Baby Keem - Leavemealone (210k)
20 20 179,000 Noah Kahan and Sam Fender - Homesick (270k)

21 22 174,000 Zach Bryan featuring Kacy Musgraves - I Remember Everything (370k)
22 21 173,000 Drake featuring Sexy Redd & Sza - Rich Baby Daddy (330k)
23 23 171,000 The Killers - Mr Brightside (5.46m)
24 28 168,000 Ella Henderson featuring Rudimental - Alibi
25 24 160,000 Dave and Central Cee - Sprinter (1.38m)
26 25 160,000 Sonny Fodera and MK featuring Clementine Douglas - Asking (520k)
27 26 159,000 Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine (380k)
28 27 158,000 Miley Cyrus - Flowers (1.81m)
29 37 158,000 Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? (700k)
30 29 157,000 Flo Milli - Never Lose Me

31 35 155,000 21 Savage - Redrum
32 30 154,000 Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red (800k)
33 31 154,000 Zara Larsson & David Guetta - On My Love (310k)
34 36 153,000 Tate McRae - Exes (230k)
35 32 153,000 Vance Joy - Riptide (3.74m)
36 34 153,000 Dua Lipa - Dance The Night (860k)
37 39 152,000 Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero (1.75m)
38 38 151,000 Chase & Status and Bou featuring Irah, Flowdan, Trigga and Takura - Baddadan (590k)
39 33 151,000 Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? (Taylor’s version) (380k)
40 61 150,000 Djo- End Of Beginning

45 132,000 Kanye West & Ty Dolla Sign - Carnival
55 120,000 Kygo and Ava Max - Whatever
56 119,000 Michael Marcagi - Scared To Start

58 118,000 Dua Lipa - Training Season
81 97,000 Richy Mitch & The Coal Miners - Evergreen
95 90,000 Becky Hill & Sonny Fodera - Never Be Alone
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JulianT
post 20th March 2024, 06:02 PM
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Entered the YTD Top 100 this week:

Never be alone
Take on me laugh.gif

Left this week:
Wonderwall ohmy.gif
Pink + white
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Maestro
post 20th March 2024, 06:05 PM
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Wouldn’t have expected Never Be Alone to show up. Expect it won’t last long.

Wonderwall has been doing very poorly on Spotify this year compared to previous ones so not a surprise to see it drop out.
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Yorkie3
post 21st March 2024, 11:17 AM
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Seems like that's the year end #1 sewn up already unless we get another Bad Habits level hit. Stick Season is on track to do similar numbers to Flowers last year if it drops off at a similar rate. Chuffed for Noah, but it's sad how this is usually decided by the end of Q1 these days!
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JulianT
post 21st March 2024, 11:50 AM
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QUOTE(Yorkie3 @ Mar 21 2024, 11:17 AM) *
Seems like that's the year end #1 sewn up already unless we get another Bad Habits level hit. Stick Season is on track to do similar numbers to Flowers last year if it drops off at a similar rate. Chuffed for Noah, but it's sad how this is usually decided by the end of Q1 these days!

Yes 2021 was a real exception to the rule regarding being quite exciting for the YE #1, as we had Drivers License with a huge early lead but being surpassed firstly by Olivia herself and then by a June release.

I think Stick Season is going to wind up as a bigger hit than Flowers overall given that it had done more than 500k before the year even started. I think it could also eventually surpass As It Was become the biggest hit since Bad Habits.
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Yorkie3
post 21st March 2024, 12:49 PM
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QUOTE(JulianT @ Mar 21 2024, 11:50 AM) *
Yes 2021 was a real exception to the rule regarding being quite exciting for the YE #1, as we had Drivers License with a huge early lead but being surpassed firstly by Olivia herself and then by a June release.

I think Stick Season is going to wind up as a bigger hit than Flowers overall given that it had done more than 500k before the year even started. I think it could also eventually surpass As It Was become the biggest hit since Bad Habits.

Yeah I would agree with this. It already has 12 consecutive weeks with sales over 50k, I think only Blinding Lights and Bad Habits have done so this decade. An early sign of good longevity although the real test is how well it continues to stream over the next several years...
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Eric_Blob
post 21st March 2024, 04:21 PM
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I forgot what year it was but the year when it was God's Plan vs. One Kiss was good for a year-end #1 battle. God's Plan had the early lead and looked like the year-end #1, but then One Kiss came out in like April iirc and gradually caught up and it was SUPER close at the end of the year.

But if it's not Stick Season for this year then it's going to have to be an absolute mega-smash to beat it.
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JulianT
post 26th March 2024, 02:52 PM
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Week 12:

1 1 814,000 Noah Kahan - Stick Season (1.33m)
2 3 452,000 Teddy Swims - Lose Control (550k)
3 2 450,000 Sophie Ellis-Bextor - Murder On The Dancefloor (1.45m)
4 4 376,000 Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me (700k)
5 7 357,000 Benson Boone - Beautiful Things
6 5 346,000 Cassö with Raye & D Block Europe - Prada (950k)
7 6 334,000 Ariana Grande - Yes, And?
8 8 327,000 Tate McRae - Greedy (790k)
9 10 322,000 Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em
10 9 304,000 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer (1.49m)

11 11 256,000 Kenya Grace - Strangers (770k)
12 12 245,000 Dua Lipa - Houdini (400k)
13 13 229,000 Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire (990k)
14 15 225,000 YG Marley - Praise Jan In The Moonlitht
15 14 224,000 Tyler - Water (580k)
16 16 220,000 Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten (1.40m)
17 17 204,000 The Weeknd featuring Playboi Carti & Madonna - Popular (590k)
18 18 195,000 Billy Gillies featuring Hannah Boleyn - DNA (440k)
19 40 194,000 Djo - End Of Beginning
20 19 193,000 Fred Again… and Baby Keem - Leavemealone (230k)

21 24 190,000 Ella Henderson featuring Rudimental - Alibi
22 20 190,000 Noah Kahan and Sam Fender - Homesick (280k)
23 21 188,000 Zach Bryan featuring Kacy Musgraves - I Remember Everything (380k)
24 23 185,000 The Killers - Mr Brightside (5.48m)
25 22 184,000 Drake featuring Sexy Redd & Sza - Rich Baby Daddy (340k)
26 29 173,000 Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? (710k)
27 26 172,000 Sonny Fodera and MK featuring Clementine Douglas - Asking (530k)
28 28 172,000 Miley Cyrus - Flowers (1.82m)
29 25 171,000 Dave & Central Cee - Sprinter (1.39m)
30 27 171,000 Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine (390k)

31 30 171,000 Flo Milli - Never Lose Me
32 31 167,000 21 Savage - Redrum
33 34 166,000 Tate McRae - Exes (240k)
34 37 165,000 Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero (1.76m)
35 33 165,000 Zara Larsson & David Guetta - On My Love (320k)
36 36 165,000 Dua Lipa - Dance The Night (870k)
37 32 164,000 Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red (810k)
38 35 163,000 Vance Joy - Riptide (3.75m)
39 38 163,000 Chase & Status and Bou featuring Irah, Flowdan, Trigga and Takura - Baddadan (610k)
40 39 161,000 Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? (Taylor’s version) (390k)

42 157,000 Kanye West & Ty Dolla Sign - Carnival
46 142,000 Dua Lipa - Training Season
47 141,000 Michael Marcagi - Scared To Start
52 136,000 Kygo & Ava Max - Whatever

80 108,000 Richy Mitch & The Coal Miners - Evergreen
85 102,000 Becky Hill & Sonny Fodera - Never Be Alone
97 99,000 Ariana Grande - We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)
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JulianT
post 26th March 2024, 02:54 PM
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Entering the YTD Top 100 this week:
We can’t be friends
Linger magic.gif
Wonderwall

Leaving this week:
Shivers
I’m still standing
We found love
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Maestro
post 26th March 2024, 02:56 PM
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QUOTE(Maestro @ Mar 6 2024, 04:10 PM) *
I also wonder if Linger by the Cranberries might make an appearance at some point in the near future.



Called it on Linger. Do you have a sales estimate for Home by Good Neighbours? Pretty surprised that’s not in yet.
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JulianT
post 26th March 2024, 03:07 PM
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QUOTE(Maestro @ Mar 26 2024, 02:56 PM) *
Called it on Linger. Do you have a sales estimate for Home by Good Neighbours? Pretty surprised that’s not in yet.

I make it 94k from the week it entered at #81 and the bar was 97k this week, so definitely close.
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Maestro
post 26th March 2024, 03:11 PM
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QUOTE(JulianT @ Mar 26 2024, 03:07 PM) *
I make it 94k from the week it entered at #81 and the bar was 97k this week, so definitely close.


Ah right, Thank you
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Jessie Where
post 26th March 2024, 06:02 PM
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Teddy Swims overtaking Mademoiselle E-B nono.gif
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Notorious D.O.T
post 26th March 2024, 08:10 PM
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It was bound to happen sooner or later but Teddy Swims overtaking Sophie E-B is so not it! sad.gif
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JulianT
post 26th March 2024, 08:40 PM
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Unfortunately MOTD is now behind songs like Prada, Greedy and Cruel Summer in the weekly chart, meaning it could eventually fall below them here.
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Notorious D.O.T
post 26th March 2024, 09:05 PM
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Does anyone have MOTD's year end positions for 2001 and 2002 to hand?
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Maestro
post 26th March 2024, 09:17 PM
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2001: #60
2002: #87

So it should comfortably beat both of those. Would be shocked if it finishes below #20
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Notorious D.O.T
post 26th March 2024, 09:30 PM
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Oh yeah no worries whatsoever about it reaching a new year end peak by some margin then.

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Roba.
post 27th March 2024, 01:15 AM
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Ugh had to be Teddy Swims overtaking Sophie no.gif

Ooh nice to see 'Linger' sneaking in. Don't like the ancient songs clogging up but that's a nice addition to those at least!
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JulianT
post 2nd April 2024, 09:05 PM
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Week 13:

1 1 858,000 Noah Kahan - Stick Season (1.39m)
2 2 512,000 Teddy Swims - Lose Control (610k)
3 3 475,000 Sophie Ellis-Bextor - Murder On The Dancefloor (1.48m)
4 5 414,000 Benson Boone - Beautiful Things
5 4 395,000 Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me (720k)
6 6 373,000 Cassö with Raye & D Block Europe - Prada (980k)
7 9 367,000 Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em
8 7 355,000 Ariana Grande - Yes, And?
9 8 354,000 Tate McRae - Greedy (810k)
10 10 329,000 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer (1.51m)

11 11 272,000 Kenya Grace - Strangers (790k)
12 12 265,000 Dua Lipa - Houdini (430k)
13 13 245,000 Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire (1.01m)
14 14 244,000 YG Marley - Praise Jan In The Moonlitht
15 15 242,000 Tyler - Water (600k)
16 16 241,000 Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten (1.42m)
17 19 237,000 Djo - End Of Beginning
18 21 213,000 Ella Henderson featuring Rudimental - Alibi
19 17 213,000 The Weeknd featuring Playboi Carti & Madonna - Popular (610k)
20 18 208,000 Billy Gillies featuring Hannah Boleyn - DNA (460k)

21 20 205,000 Fred Again… and Baby Keem - Leavemealone (250k)
22 23 203,000 Zach Bryan featuring Kacy Musgraves - I Remember Everything (390k)
23 24 200,000 The Killers - Mr Brightside (5.49m)
24 22 199,000 Noah Kahan and Sam Fender - Homesick (290k)
25 25 195,000 Drake featuring Sexy Redd & Sza - Rich Baby Daddy (350k)
26 26 187,000 Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? (720k)
27 27 186,000 Sonny Fodera and MK featuring Clementine Douglas - Asking (550k)
28 28 184,000 Miley Cyrus - Flowers (1.84m)
29 31 183,000 Flo Milli - Never Lose Me
30 30 182,000 Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine (400k)

31 29 182,000 Dave & Central Cee - Sprinter (1.40m)
32 34 179,000 Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero (1.78m)
33 32 179,000 21 Savage - Redrum
34 33 178,000 Tate McRae - Exes (250k)
35 42 177,000 Kanye West & Ty Dolla Sign - Carnival
36 36 177,000 Dua Lipa - Dance The Night (880k)
37 35 176,000 Zara Larsson & David Guetta - On My Love (330k)
38 39 175,000 Chase & Status and Bou featuring Irah, Flowdan, Trigga and Takura - Baddadan (620k)
39 37 174,000 Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red (820k)
40 38 174,000 Vance Joy - Riptide (3.76m)

41 41 172,000 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved (5.45m)
42 40 171,000 Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? (Taylor’s version) (400k)
43 43 167,000 Becky Hill and Chase & Status - Disconnect (640k)
44 47 166,000 Michael Marcagi - Scared To Start
45 46 166,000 Dua Lipa - Training Season
46 44 157,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Feather (260k)
47 45 156,000 The Last Dinner Party - Nothing Matters (210k)
48 48 155,000 Fleetwood Mac - Everywhere (3.16m)
49 52 154,000 Kygo & Ava Max - Whatever
50 51 152,000 Raye featuring 070 Shake - Escapism (1.53m)

55 144,000 Ariana Grande - We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)
79 119,000 Richy Mitch & The Coal Miners - Evergreen
82 115,000 Becky Hill & Sonny Fodera - Never Be Alone
88 110,000 Good Neighbours - Home
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