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 Political predictions for 2016 |
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 26th December 2016, 01:52 PM
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#21
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 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 
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Well, now that it's the end of 2016, let's take a moment to see how well our predictions for 2016 went. I'll refrain from marking anybody else's scorecard, as tempting as that would be, and just stick to my own prediction for the year -
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 2 2016, 03:06 PM)  I disagree. When Donald Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination (and it's a when, not an if), I very much doubt he's going to run as an independent. Although there's been some conspiracy theories that Donald Trump is secretly running to make Hillary Clinton more electable, I believe that the opposite is true. By taking such extreme positions, Trump is making the other Republican candidates look much more reasonable in comparison, therefore encouraging the more moderate floating voters who may flirt with the idea of voting Republican to do so. But back on point, I think the Republicans will win in 2016, something which was decided on June 26th 2015. So in short - - I was very wrong about Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination - I was however right that he wouldn't run as an independent - I was right that the Republicans would win the presidency in 2016 |
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26th December 2016, 02:45 PM
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#22
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,851 User: 17,376
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QUOTE(popchartfreak @ Jan 3 2016, 06:23 PM) Not at all, I don't have a problem with accuracy. At present they are mostly irrelevant. They've been irrelevant before. As I've said before nothing in politics is forever, a lesson which Labour cluelessly forgot when they targeted the wrong party and paid the price. Labour could just as easily end up irrelevant if they don't get their act together. Jezza has made promises to attack the Tories. I look forward to it, certainly about time....! Weĺl, act not together, not only not attacking Tories in any effective way, but actually voting through Tory policies. Snoopers charter. Carte blanche on the EU... |
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27th December 2016, 02:28 PM
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#23
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 Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
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QASS' points weren't bad but she got the Eu part wrong unfort!
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28th December 2016, 11:05 AM
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#24
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 3 2016, 10:18 AM) Also I think Sadiq Kahn will be mayor by a margin greater than expected. YAY. My (only) correct prediction for 2016. |
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28th December 2016, 01:05 PM
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#25
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 26 2016, 01:52 PM) - I was right that the Republicans would win the presidency in 2016 But for the wrong reason. I don't think you'd find many people who'd argue Donald Trump's win had much to do with Catholics defecting over gay marriage. Although I suppose the beauty of a win that narrow is that both everything and nothing is the precise reason Trump won. |
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28th December 2016, 01:30 PM
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#26
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 1. The Conservatives won't be anywhere near as split by the EU referendum as the media are predicting, as it's a fight everyone knows is going to happen anyway, the differences (and leaders of each side) are already fairly well established, and it is something that doesn't lend itself well to internal warfare as the arbiters of victory are the public and not the Conservative Party membership. The highest profile scrap will be within the Leave side on the Conservatives as figures grapple to be the de facto leader of it ahead of the leadership election. Right, but a little wrong on the pre-referendum detail. The Leave campaign were far more willing to kick lumps out of Cameron than he was expecting after he forbade attacks on other Tories by the Remain side. However, given Euroscepticism has been the default position QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 2. The EU referendum will be a mildly solid win for Remain (but within the ten point margin) despite Cameron not winning all that many concessions from the EU aside from symbolic ones. The one incorrect prediction here from which most of the other incorrect ones flow. Remain put their best foot forward and then shot themselves in it: leaving the EU would be a leap in the dark! That will cost you precisely £4,300 a year. If swing voters are suspicious of your best argument...well. I also didn't really take into account that the traditional 'jobs and economy jobs and economy you can't trust the other lot with the jobs and economy' argument that the Conservatives tend to romp home with every time doesn't work too well when the media isn't onside. Which, ironically, I probably should've known already from 1997. QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 3. Nigel Farage will allege corruption and fraud but resign shortly thereafter anyway, to be replaced by Paul Nuttall. Farage will go on to host a weekly phone-in show on LBC. I imagine the LBC show is only a matter of time when he doesn't end up Ambassador. QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 4. The Liberal Democrats will continue to attempt to capitalise on big policy scraps and events by either taking the most transparently populist position of either the public or the media. They will continue to be mostly irrelevant until a brief period of will-they-won't-they over a close vote in the Commons which will end in a government defeat, after which they will fail to capitalise on the renewed media interest and resume being irrelevant. HAHAHAHA savage QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 5. Cameron will not take Corbyn up on his lose-lose-lose offer of annual debates, in part because it will incorrectly be taken as a sign of him being scared of Corbyn. Theresa May definitely won't take up the offer either, given she's more often than not coming out of PMQs the loser these days. Not that she's particularly scared of Corbyn either way. |
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28th December 2016, 01:30 PM
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#27
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 6. Jeremy Corbyn will still be leader of the Labour Party at the end of 2016, despite swathes of losses in council seats in May, an obliteration in the Scottish Parliament elections where Labour lose all of their constituency seats in Holyrood and narrowly finish second ahead of the Conservatives on seats and votes, and a loss of Labour's majority in the Welsh Parliament elections (though with Labour staying in government with support from Plaid). A combination of a narrow win for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral race and there being no clear alternative candidate to Jeremy who could win the membership keeps him in place. Narrow win for Sadiq and second on seats (and no constituency seats) in Scotland aside, I'll take that. QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 7. Jeremy Corbyn will say something so earth-shatteringly vacuous and stupid it breaks previous records for a Leader of the Opposition (all set by him a year prior). There will be an inconsequential media storm and everyone will have the same opinion they already had of Jeremy, only even more entrenched. Life is too short to go back and check if this happened, but even if it did the record for most vacuous and stupid thing said by a candidate for Leader of the Opposition was set in August this year when Owen Smith suggested getting round the table with ISIS in a laughable attempt to outflank Corbyn from the left that even he smacked down. QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 8. The SNP - and Nicola Sturgeon in particular - will continue to have a Teflon resilience to any and all scandal, and secure a larger majority at Holyrood in May. Natalie McGarry will resign her seat and the SNP will win the resulting by-election in Glasgow East just as resoundingly as they did before. The investigation is taking longer than I expected for Natalie McGarry but the likelihood of a good excuse for £30,000 going missing out of a campaign account she had sole access to seems low. I can't see the SNP losing the seat when it comes up. I should really have stuck to my prior prediction in 2014 that the SNP would lose their majority thanks to the Additional Member System producing unexpected results - despite their votes being pretty much on par with 2011, the SNP lost 12 seats on the list as a result of clearing up most of the constituency seats available. QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 9. Natalie Bennett will not restand to be leader of the Green Party at their leadership election in September. Caroline Lucas will be re-elected leader of the Green Party unopposed. Mostly correct - she wasn't unopposed, but given she won (on a jobshare with Jonathan Bartley) with 86%, she may as well have been. QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 10. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio will have a nip-and-tuck battle for the Republican nomination which goes to convention. Despite Marco Rubio narrowly finishing with the most nominations and having overwhelming support from the RNC, Ted Cruz gains the nomination off the back of the lion's share of Donald Trump's delegates. An outraged Trump declares he will run as an independent candidate for the Presidency and Hillary Clinton wins by a landslide in November. Republicans take on a new November Criminals origin myth for the 21st century and in 2030 there are still wingnuts on internet boards who insist Cruz would've been the greatest President ever if it hadn't been for Trump. Cute that I thought Ted Cruz would be the one with the rabid fanbase, I guess. Pass the Valium. QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) 11. The UK polling average at the end the year is as follows: CON 40%, LAB 29%, UKIP 16%, LDEM 6%, SNP 5%, GRN 4% This looks nearly correct, but I think this would be wrong even if we'd voted Remain - the Conservatives would've been too split and Ukip would be doing better. |
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28th December 2016, 02:10 PM
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#28
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
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Oi!!
Predicted Brexit. I predicted Bernie Sanders bring more popular than Hillary. I predicted them stealing the nomination from him if he didn't win it outright. I predicted a Trump presidency and also that Bernie was the o ly one who could stop him. I predicted Trump winning the primaries. I predicted the Rust Belt and New Hampshore being close/ and or losses due to concentrations of Trump supporters in those areas. I also knew Corbyn would win the challenge. The only thing I was wrong about was Labour's popularity. And you all called me crazy 
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28th December 2016, 02:14 PM
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#29
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Dec 28 2016, 01:05 PM) But for the wrong reason. I don't think you'd find many people who'd argue Donald Trump's win had much to do with Catholics defecting over gay marriage. Although I suppose the beauty of a win that narrow is that both everything and nothing is the precise reason Trump won. You're wrong. I saw a Trump win a MILE off BECAUSE the signs were all there. Ohio was a big one. |
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28th December 2016, 02:15 PM
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#30
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Frosty Xmas Baps @ Dec 28 2016, 02:10 PM) I predicted Bernie Sanders bring more popular than Hillary. So popular that he finished three million votes behind her. QUOTE(Frosty Xmas Baps @ Dec 28 2016, 02:10 PM) I predicted a Trump presidency and also that Bernie was the o ly one who could stop him. You can't predict a counterfactual. A popular Democratic Jewish economic populist - Russ Feingold - lost the Wisconsin senate race by more than Hillary Clinton lost the race. The state polls showed Hillary Clinton on track to win in the weeks leading up to the election. Why do you therefore think that a poll from *ten months* before the election showing Bernie Sanders would win is gospel, particularly when you still don't have an answer on how Bernie would've sold a 10% tax rise to a nation where two thirds think they're already taxed too much? |
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28th December 2016, 02:16 PM
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#31
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Frosty Xmas Baps @ Dec 28 2016, 02:14 PM) You're wrong. I saw a Trump win a MILE off BECAUSE the signs were all there. Ohio was a big one. ...how has that got anything to do with gay marriage not being the reason Trump won? |
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28th December 2016, 02:16 PM
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#32
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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Anyway, if you'd care to put down a series of predictions for 2017 please Michael. While you're on a roll.
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28th December 2016, 02:21 PM
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#33
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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Alright I will once I know what is happening to predict it.
No I mean you said there was no clear reason why Drumpf won. That's wrong. He had clustered support in the Rust Belt and Florida is a NATURAL HOME of his supporters, Americsnd tend to worship the dollar and he is RICH so therefore he is automatically RIGHT even whrn being an odious turd, Hillary was deeply unpopular, there were memes on FB with her fce and Trump's intermerged (as soon as I saw that I knew she'd lose as people would take a risk with Trump ig the memes convinced them they were the same), and her campaign was let's face it, terrible. Truly woeful. Her only talking point was Trump and making the election a Trump Referendum following Brexit was only gonna end in tears. |
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28th December 2016, 02:24 PM
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#34
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Dec 28 2016, 02:15 PM) So popular that he finished three million votes behind her. You can't predict a counterfactual. A popular Democratic Jewish economic populist - Russ Feingold - lost the Wisconsin senate race by more than Hillary Clinton lost the race. The state polls showed Hillary Clinton on track to win in the weeks leading up to the election. Why do you therefore think that a poll from *ten months* before the election showing Bernie Sanders would win is gospel, particularly when you still don't have an answer on how Bernie would've sold a 10% tax rise to a nation where two thirds think they're already taxed too much? His popularity with independents and also his popularity in the states SHE LOST. He would've picked up a lot less in the south but who cares? Those were lost causes from day one. If the Dem Party had been neutral,had more debates, hadn't stolen Nevada or that coin flip state, hadn't sought to discredit him and had made ALL primaries and caucuses open to independents too he would've won by around the same margin. |
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28th December 2016, 02:30 PM
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#35
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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And if the media hadn't colluded with her campaign (wikileaks) or the Dem Party had scheduled the debates at decent times for more people to see (wikileaks) and had the superdelegates DONE THEIR JOB and not been declared until AFTER the primary races and had the media not included them in thei counts to tey and influence the race making her look lore popular than she was, it would have been veery different.
In the year of the Outsider it was a mistake to send TJE MOST!! establishment candidate ever. |
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28th December 2016, 02:35 PM
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#36
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Frosty Xmas Baps @ Dec 28 2016, 02:21 PM) No I mean you said there was no clear reason why Drumpf won. That's wrong. I think you misunderstand what I mean when I say that when a victory is narrow (77,750 votes across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, out of 14 million votes) 'everything and nothing' is the reason. When it's that narrow, the deciding factor could equally be said to be however many were pissed off about the Iraq War, pissed off about gay marriage, pissed off about trans toilets, pissed off about Bill Clinton's rape allegations, pissed off about a woman being president. All a topic needs is to have been the deciding factor for 0.6% of the voters in those states to have a claim to be 'the deciding factor' that switched it from Hillary to Trump. That's what I mean when I say 'everything and nothing' is the reason Trump won. QUOTE(Frosty Xmas Baps @ Dec 28 2016, 02:21 PM) Americsnd tend to worship the dollar and he is RICH so therefore he is automatically RIGHT even whrn being an odious turd Which makes your insistence that Bernie Sanders would've beaten him even more odd. |
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28th December 2016, 02:36 PM
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#37
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Frosty Xmas Baps @ Dec 28 2016, 02:24 PM) If the Dem Party had been neutral,had more debates, hadn't stolen Nevada or that coin flip state, hadn't sought to discredit him and had made ALL primaries and caucuses open to independents too he would've won by around the same margin. You're not going to enjoy seeing what real election fraud looks like come 2020. |
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28th December 2016, 02:39 PM
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#38
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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I don't understand where your prediction of US election fraud in 2020 is coming from tbh.
Of course gerrymandering and Republican attempts to make it harder for minorities to vote are RIDICULOUS and that second thing could have made that 0.6% difference in the Rust Belt with fewer polling stations and maybe Voter I.D laws? (Not sure if they were in affect in that area) but actual fraud hmm. I am not sure even Drumpf would be so brazen. This post has been edited by Frosty Xmas Baps: 28th December 2016, 02:42 PM |
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28th December 2016, 04:47 PM
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#39
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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Okay, sub 'physical voter intimidation' for fraud. Same difference.
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28th December 2016, 06:13 PM
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#40
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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I can see Trump voters doing that.
Weren't there a couple reports of it last election anyway? |
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