I thought I'd do this for analytical purposes - basically the idea is a projection of what a songs sales will look like based on current figures for now to the end of the week, so we can get an estimate of where the song is projected to come in the chart
Obviously there is a certain degree of inaccuracy to this as the sales of tracks are ever changing, and I'll be trying to make my formulas as accurate as possible as the weeks go on, but I'll do the best I can for now with the figures I have
Here are the potential new entries this week and where they're currently predicted to come in the charts based on projected sales~
28 | Ariana Grande ft Nicki Minaj - Side To Side ~
7500 streams / 11650 sales = 19150 total
30 | offaiah - Trouble ~
6000 streams / 10800 sales = 18000 total
32 | Ghost Cast - With You ~
450 streams / 17500 sales = 17950 total
(the total might look a bit high - there's another version in the top 100 right now, but I'd also like to note this track probably won't hold up these high sales all week.)
33 | Zara Larsson - Ain't My Fault ~
5850 streams / 11025 sales = 16875 total
36 | Matoma & Becky Hill - False Alarm ~
8100 streams / 8200 sales = 16300 total
41 | Mike Perry ft Shy Martin - The Ocean ~
12320 streams / 2550 sales = 14870 total
30/42 | The Black Eyed Peas - #WHERESTHELOVE ~
1000 streams / 13860 sales = 14860 total (around 17000 if the original is combined with it)
46 | Digital Farm Animals & Cash Cash ft Nelly - Millionaire ~
7200 streams / 7100 sales = 14300 total
51 | DNCE - Toothbrush ~
6500 streams / 5900 sales = 12400 total
Remember, these are only estimations and the positions are based on the last few weeks' sales trends for certain positions. I'd take a guess and say that #WHERESTHELOVE and With You will NOT place anywhere near as high as this.
Feel free to request any estimations
Could you guess what the top 5 (even the top 10!) might be, using your method, to guess what sales may be? It would be interesting to see how close they are to actual sales and positions on Friday?
As streaming seems to follow a certain pattern during the chart week I'd be interested to see if your formula works well for that?
These look quite accurate so far I think, bar With You which will no doubt fall hugely by the end of the week! I'm sure you'll be able to fine-tune the formula over time as well
I'm very excited to bring you this projected chart, and to my delight it ACTUALLY LOOKS ACCURATE in terms of sales Feel free to ask for sales and positions of any songs you like
1 ~ The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey) ~ 88700
2 ~ DJ Snake - Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber) ~ 62000
3 ~ Major Lazer - Cold Water (feat. Justin Bieber & MØ) ~ 57500
4 ~ Calum Scott - Dancing on My Own ~ 46800
5 ~ twenty one pilots - Heathens ~ 42500
6 ~ The Chainsmokers - Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya) ~ 33100
7 ~ Olly Murs - You Don't Know Love ~ 32100
8 ~ Jonas Blue - Perfect Strangers (feat. JP Cooper) ~ 29800
9 ~ Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better ~ 29200
10 ~ Martin Garrix & Bebe Rexha - In the Name of Love ~ 28500
This actually makes me think if Let Me Love You could break the record for longest #2 of all time. The current top 2 look set in stone (in that order) for a good few weeks yet, the record is 7 consecutive weeks (All-4-One's I Swear) & 8 total week (Frank Chackfield's Terry's Theme).
It will be interesting to see if Olly can hold up but I expect he won't survive and we'll end up with a Drake song back :')
I'm 99% sure we'll get at least one drake song in the top ten.
My predictions results~
28/24 | Ariana Grande ft Nicki Minaj - Side To Side ~
19150 predicted / 21750 actual
30/31 | offaiah - Trouble ~
18000 predicted / 17200 actual
33/30 | Zara Larsson - Ain't My Fault ~
16875 predicted / 18500 actual
36/35 | Matoma & Becky Hill - False Alarm ~
16300 predicted / 15600 actual
41/39 | Mike Perry ft Shy Martin - The Ocean ~
14870 predicted / 14500 actual
42/47 | The Black Eyed Peas - #WHERESTHELOVE ~
14860 predicted / 13200 actual
46/36 | Digital Farm Animals & Cash Cash ft Nelly - Millionaire ~
14300 predicted / 15170 actual
1/1 ~ The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey) ~ 88700/91600
2/2 ~ DJ Snake - Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber) ~ 62000/61500
3/3 ~ Major Lazer - Cold Water (feat. Justin Bieber & MØ) ~ 57500/59000
4/4 ~ Calum Scott - Dancing on My Own ~ 46800/44200
5/5 ~ twenty one pilots - Heathens ~ 42500/43800
6/6 ~ The Chainsmokers - Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya) ~ 33100/38300
7/15 ~ Olly Murs - You Don't Know Love ~ 32100/25100
8/7 ~ Jonas Blue - Perfect Strangers (feat. JP Cooper) ~ 29800/32900
9/8 ~ Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better ~ 29200/31600
10/10 ~ Martin Garrix & Bebe Rexha - In the Name of Love ~ 28500/29200
So surprised at just how close I got with a fair few of them I'll make some predictions for this weeks tracks tomorrow when we have more sales data - feel free to ask for any estimates.
Oh, and I am slightly changing the streams-other-than-Spotify estimation based on the rolling 7 day total on Kworb and overall stream total given for Closer, this may make the predictions more accurate, but we'll have to see.
Mine was based on a formula, remember my predictions weren't remotely based on personal opinion.
I've done some sales projections based on James' current figures for iTunes and Spotify, and if he continues to sell at this rate (considering he's likely sell more if he continues to grow at such an alarming rate on Spotify) he will comfortably be number two next week, as his sales are to be roughly 64,000 if he continues at this rate.
Calvin looks to enter around #6 at this point.
James Arthur #1 in the midweeks today (unsurprisingly)
Gaga at 39.
BRUNO MARS - 24K MAGIC~
Estimated paid for sales yesterday - 4,600
Estimated streams for yesterday - 1,910
Estimated total sales for yesterday - 6,510
Assuming he keeps up these sales for the rest of the week he'll sell 45,570 units.
45,570 should mean he debuts at #4 on Friday.
If he wants to reach #3, the threshold is presumably around 59,000, with The Chainsmokers decreasing slightly.
He'll need 231,000 streams, with around 190,000 of them coming from Spotify. That's an increase to at least #15 on Spotify, that needs to happen by Monday.
He'll need 6,150 sales, with around 5,400 coming from iTunes. That's an increase to #2 on iTunes, that needs to happen by Sunday evening.
#4 debut seems on lock, The Chainsmokers just aren't decreasing enough and both The Weeknd and James Arthur are still increasing in sales at the moment.
PROJECTED TOP 10 FOR THIS WEEK (if sales and streams continue to follow a similar pattern)
1 James Arthur Say You Won't Let Go
2 The Weeknd Starboy (feat. Daft Punk)
3 The Chainsmokers Closer (feat. Halsey)
4 Hailee Steinfeld & Grey Starving (feat. Zedd)
5 Calvin Harris My Way
6 Sia The Greatest (feat. Kendrick Lamar)
7 Bruno Mars 24K Magic
8 Ariana Grande Side To Side (feat. Nicki Minaj)
9 DJ Snake Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber)
10 NEIKED Sexual (feat. Dyo)
Expect 'Shoutout To My Ex' by Little Mix to potentially push Sexual out.
MDH DELETE YOUR INBOX
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