OPINION POLLS 2018-2022 - BuzzJack Music Forum

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OPINION POLLS 2018-2022, Strong and stable...

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Doctor Blind View member profile	12th May 2019, 05:48 PM Post #201
#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue' Joined: 27 October 2008 Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561	Unfortunately I can see the Brexit Party winning this by quite a clear margin. The anti-Politics feeling is also being fuelled and stoked up by Change UK but they still seem to be languishing in the doldrums.


Rooney View member profile	12th May 2019, 05:57 PM Post #202
WINTER IS COMING Joined: 7 March 2006 Posts: 45,599 User: 88	But the Brexit Party just plays on the emotions associated - you know what you're getting despite the fact it's going to be like your worst nightmare. I feel the Remain vote is way too split.


Doctor Blind View member profile	12th May 2019, 09:37 PM Post #203
#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue' Joined: 27 October 2008 Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561	COMRES poll (with European seat projections): BXP 27% (+27) Lab 25% (-) LD 14% (+7) Con 13% (-11) Grn 8% (-) ChUK 6% (+6) SNP 4% (+2) UKIP 3% (-25) My seat estimate BXP 24 (+24) Lab 21 (+1) LD 10 (+9) Con 8 (-11) Grn 2 (-1) SNP 2 (-) UKIP 2 (-22) PC 1 (-) ChUK 0 (-) A Grn/LD/ChUK and SNP coalition would be around 2 pt ahead of BXP/UKIP.


Doctor Blind View member profile	18th May 2019, 05:14 PM Post #204
#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue' Joined: 27 October 2008 Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561	Westminster voting intention (via @HanburyStrategy,): Lab 30% (-11) Con 21% (-23) BXP 19% (+19) LD 13% (+5) ChUK 6% (+6) Grn 5% (+3) SNP 4% (+1) UKIP 2% (-) Projected Seat estimate Lab 314 (+52) Con 224 (-93) SNP 53 (+18) LD 35 (+23) BXP 0 (-) ChUK 0 (-) Oth 24 (-) .


vidcapper View member profile	19th May 2019, 05:12 AM Post #205
Paul Hyett Joined: 4 April 2006 Posts: 25,346 User: 364	QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 18 2019, 06:14 PM) Westminster voting intention (via @HanburyStrategy,): Lab 30% (-11) Con 21% (-23) BXP 19% (+19) LD 13% (+5) ChUK 6% (+6) Grn 5% (+3) SNP 4% (+1) UKIP 2% (-) Projected Seat estimate Lab 314 (+52) Con 224 (-93) SNP 53 (+18) LD 35 (+23) BXP 0 (-) ChUK 0 (-) Oth 24 (-) . Two things - No majority for Lab even with a 9% lead. No seats for BXP even with 19% of the vote.


Suedehead2 View member profile	19th May 2019, 08:27 AM Post #206
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,673 User: 3,272	QUOTE(vidcapper @ May 19 2019, 06:12 AM) Two things - No majority for Lab even with a 9% lead. No seats for BXP even with 19% of the vote. Electoral Calculus gives the Farage Fanclub some seats based on those figures. My guess is that it is the difference between giving them a starting point of zero or building on the UKIP vote.


Steve201 View member profile	19th May 2019, 10:55 AM Post #207
Shakin Stevens Joined: 29 December 2007 Posts: 46,151 User: 5,138	Mental that 19% of the vote can still give you 0-5 seats max. Shows how the vote spread is important!!


Doctor Blind View member profile	19th May 2019, 12:21 PM Post #208
#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue' Joined: 27 October 2008 Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561	QUOTE(Steve201 @ May 19 2019, 11:55 AM) Mental that 19% of the vote can still give you 0-5 seats max. Shows how the vote spread is important!! That's the absurdity of the FPTP system - the SNP vote is obviously concentrated in Scotland so appears low at 4% but gives them almost all Scottish seats (53 out of 59). I think the Brexit Party would on that vote share finish second in up to 100 seats - and as Suedey says the Electoral Calculus site actually gives the Brexit Party one seat- https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html I assume that would be Boston & Skegness??


Harve View member profile	19th May 2019, 12:49 PM Post #209
Cœur poids plume Joined: 3 November 2007 Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718	QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 19 2019, 01:21 PM) That's the absurdity of the FPTP system - the SNP vote is obviously concentrated in Scotland so appears low at 4% but gives them almost all Scottish seats (53 out of 59). I think the Brexit Party would on that vote share finish second in up to 100 seats - and as Suedey says the Electoral Calculus site actually gives the Brexit Party one seat- https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html I assume that would be Boston & Skegness?? Thurrock. It's not about the overall Leave vote, but rather where the Tory and Labour votes are both relatively low. Like many high Leave-voting seats, Boston & Skegness is safe Tory whereas Thurrock has been a marginal for decades.


Steve201 View member profile	19th May 2019, 12:53 PM Post #210
Shakin Stevens Joined: 29 December 2007 Posts: 46,151 User: 5,138	Is the increase back to 2015 levels for the SNP due to the Brexit situation. I got the general feeling that their support was on the wane(or plateux at least) maybe at devolved level at least.


Doctor Blind View member profile	19th May 2019, 01:06 PM Post #211
#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue' Joined: 27 October 2008 Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561	QUOTE(Steve201 @ May 19 2019, 01:53 PM) Is the increase back to 2015 levels for the SNP due to the Brexit situation. I got the general feeling that their support was on the wane(or plateux at least) maybe at devolved level at least. Same reason for the increase in support for Lib Dems and Green Party, a strong pro-Remain message, yes.


Silas View member profile	19th May 2019, 06:20 PM Post #212
Queen of Soon Joined: 24 May 2007 Posts: 74,082 User: 3,474	Ruthie had a very successful catch phrase in “no indyref2” (no actual policies of course) which did what it was designed to do an get unionists to vote tactically. The SNP actually got more votes in 2016 than in 2011. Their council vote is higher than ever as well. They’ve got on with the day job while being a clear and consistent voice against Brexit. Their support isn’t going anywhere. Davidson like to mouth off that she will be the next FM but they’re not even on half the level of support of the SNP on a bad poll for the SNP. On a good day, Ruth has about 45% of the level of support that Nicola has.


Suedehead2 View member profile	19th May 2019, 08:33 PM Post #213
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,673 User: 3,272	Given how long they have been in power in Scotland (including the period when they were propped up by the Tories), the SNP are doing very well at the moment. They have made themselves the leading pro-Remain party in Scotland, well ahead of the Lib Dems and Greens. Whether that translates into a majority for independence remains to be seen.


Botchia View member profile	30th May 2019, 08:11 PM Post #214
I Drink Wine Joined: 12 April 2015 Posts: 10,485 User: 21,753	Leaked poll due to come out shortly has Lib Dems now in the lead on 24%!! Followed by Brexit and then Labour and Tories on 19% each. Lib Dems .


Suedehead2 View member profile	30th May 2019, 08:40 PM Post #215
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,673 User: 3,272	If the rumoured figures are confirmed, electoral calculus shows the Lib Dems first in the popular vote but fourth un seats. Labour, joint third in the popular vote would have the most seats. Welcome to First Past The Post.


Brett-Butler View member profile	30th May 2019, 09:41 PM Post #216
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455	Confirmation: We are truly living in the banter era.


Botchia View member profile	30th May 2019, 09:58 PM Post #217
I Drink Wine Joined: 12 April 2015 Posts: 10,485 User: 21,753	This feels like such a moment for the Lib Dems!


Botchia View member profile	30th May 2019, 10:05 PM Post #218
I Drink Wine Joined: 12 April 2015 Posts: 10,485 User: 21,753	So it's the first time Lib Dems have led in a Westminster poll since YouGov's own back in April 2010(!) And just like that the coalition years are a distant memory .


Brer View member profile	30th May 2019, 10:49 PM Post #219
is my brain across your walls? Joined: 14 February 2009 Posts: 115,078 User: 8,300	The next election is going to be seriously spicy.


Envoirment View member profile	30th May 2019, 11:57 PM Post #220
BuzzJack Platinum Member Joined: 21 November 2009 Posts: 8,556 User: 10,030	Come on Lib Dems!! _ The Greens on 8% as well... Now if only that could translate into enough seats for a Green/SNP/Lib Dem coalition of sorts. I'm hoping the Conseratives and Labour will continue to fall. I think people are finally realising they have the power to completely change the stagnant Con-Labour governments. A lot of people think you're wasting a vote by not voting for Lab or Con, so glad to see that changing significantly. Hopefully the next leader of the Lib Dems will be able to carry this momentum forward.