Printable Version of Topic

Click here to view this topic in its original format

BuzzJack Music Forum _ UK Charts _ Taylor Swift - Lead Single // PREDICTION

Posted by: cqmerqn Aug 21 2017, 11:34 PM

Taylor Swift's new lead single is coming this Friday so how do you think it'll do?

I went for...

iTunes #1
Spotify Top 5
Officially #1
81-100k

Posted by: JosephStyles Aug 21 2017, 11:36 PM

#1 on the first three, 101-150k week 1!

Posted by: Envoirment Aug 21 2017, 11:44 PM

#1, top 10, #1 and 81-100k.

Posted by: Dexton Aug 22 2017, 12:01 AM

Isn't Katy Perrys Swish Swish video out Friday too? rotf.gif

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 22 2017, 05:19 AM

QUOTE(cqmerqn @ Aug 22 2017, 12:34 AM) *
Taylor Swift's new lead single is coming this Friday so how do you think it'll do?


I'd have to hear it first...

Posted by: tommie Aug 22 2017, 05:32 AM

People are overestimating her popularity in the UK...

Just a reminder of her debuts:

Shake It Off - #4 (PEAK: 2)
Blank Space - #11 (PEAK: 4)
Style - #65 (PEAK: 21)
Bad Blood - #4 (PEAK: 4)
Wildest Dream - #69 (PEAK: 40)
Don't Wanna Live Forever (feat Zayn) - #16 (PEAK: 5)

Posted by: White Mustang Aug 22 2017, 06:28 AM

An easy #1 I'd say. Around 100k

Posted by: MoistSummerFruit Aug 22 2017, 06:29 AM

45k, between 3-5.

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Aug 22 2017, 06:49 AM

QUOTE(tommie @ Aug 22 2017, 06:32 AM) *
People are overestimating her popularity in the UK...

Just a reminder of her debuts:

Shake It Off - #4 (PEAK: 2)
Blank Space - #11 (PEAK: 4)
Style - #65 (PEAK: 21)
Bad Blood - #4 (PEAK: 4)
Wildest Dream - #69 (PEAK: 40)
Don't Wanna Live Forever (feat Zayn) - #16 (PEAK: 5)


You are aware pretty much all of those didn't have streaming, right?

Posted by: tommie Aug 22 2017, 07:14 AM

QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Aug 22 2017, 06:49 AM) *
You are aware pretty much all of those didn't have streaming, right?


People are assuming that she'll be a huge streaming presence from day one based on... what?

My point is that she's not been a huge week #1 presence before in the UK, so what would change now? We have no receipts that she is.

Posted by: Bjork Aug 22 2017, 07:22 AM

Yes but its a bit like with Ed/Divide
You could feel he was gonna go to the next step and become bigger
He hadnt had 16 songs in the top 40 before
Or a 10-weeek #1
Bit it was clear it was gonna happen

Same now with Taylor
Shes gonna step to the next level

Posted by: omrimayo Aug 22 2017, 07:34 AM

QUOTE(tommie @ Aug 22 2017, 09:14 AM) *
People are assuming that she'll be a huge streaming presence from day one based on... what?

My point is that she's not been a huge week #1 presence before in the UK, so what would change now? We have no receipts that she is.


On that she was with SIO for a few days on Spotify and was number 1, she's really big there only for her old catalog in the past 2 months and just because people wants to believe in her popularity and her last era made her HUGE. So All good.

Posted by: omrimayo Aug 22 2017, 07:35 AM

QUOTE(Bjork @ Aug 22 2017, 09:22 AM) *
Yes but its a bit like with Ed/Divide
You could feel he was gonna go to the next step and become bigger
He hadnt had 16 songs in the top 40 before
Or a 10-weeek #1
Bit it was clear it was gonna happen

Same now with Taylor
Shes gonna step to the next level


THIS.

Posted by: SKOB Aug 22 2017, 07:38 AM

Well her latest album is top 75 on streaming alone basically so I'd say she'd have a lots of streaming potential

Posted by: John-James Aug 22 2017, 08:12 AM

This is what SIO's Spotify run looked like over the course of its climb to #1

79 - 37 - 15 - 7 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 50* - 4 - 1 - 1 ...

*Removed for several hours

Posted by: omrimayo Aug 22 2017, 08:18 AM

QUOTE(John-James @ Aug 22 2017, 10:12 AM) *
This is what SIO's Spotify run looked like over the course of its climb to #1

79 - 37 - 15 - 7 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 50* - 4 - 1 - 1 ...

*Removed for several hours


If that's not a potential so Everyone is blind really.

Posted by: T Boy Aug 22 2017, 08:19 AM

I think the word 'debut' here needs changing to 'peak'.

Posted by: tommie Aug 22 2017, 08:56 AM

QUOTE(T Boy @ Aug 22 2017, 08:19 AM) *
I think the word 'debut' here needs changing to 'peak'.


Exactly. I never said it possibly can't go to number one on Spotify, just that I doubt it'll *debut* there. I don't think she'll debut at number one on the official singles chart either and that's what I vote by.

Posted by: cqmerqn Aug 22 2017, 09:54 AM

QUOTE(T Boy @ Aug 22 2017, 09:19 AM) *
I think the word 'debut' here needs changing to 'peak'.

Well no because I want to see what people's predictions are on debut week.

Posted by: White Mustang Aug 22 2017, 10:21 AM

On itunes though it's debut is fairly irrelevant, it could debut at like 78 depending on when iTunes updates and climb to 5 and then 1 in the next updates.

Posted by: jafetsigfinns Aug 22 2017, 10:33 AM

Why are we forced to choose #1 on the first option lol

Posted by: cqmerqn Aug 22 2017, 11:28 AM

QUOTE(T Boy @ Aug 22 2017, 09:19 AM) *
I think the word 'debut' here needs changing to 'peak'.

Oh I thought you meant spotify

Posted by: danG Aug 22 2017, 11:30 AM

QUOTE(White Mustang @ Aug 22 2017, 11:21 AM) *
On itunes though it's debut is fairly irrelevant, it could debut at like 78 depending on when iTunes updates and climb to 5 and then 1 in the next updates.

I presume the poll means where will it peak on its first day, which is incredibly likely to be #1.

Posted by: UltraRedLight Aug 22 2017, 11:31 AM

#1, #1, #1, 70k

(We also now have a Taylor forum where you can discuss this as well! <3)

Posted by: mack25 Aug 22 2017, 12:07 PM

#1 iTunes 100%
#1 Spotify 100%
#1 Officially 100%
101-150k (114k approx.)

Posted by: Supercell Aug 22 2017, 12:19 PM

I reckon she could well easily land herself her first no.1, especially given Dua's only shifting around 40k so it wont take a huge amount to get there.

She could shift 100k plus in week 1 if she comes back with an absolute smash but I don't think she will. She's never been close to the success Ed has had in the UK so thats not really a good comparison at all. All of his albums have shifted 2 million for starters. I think Ellie Goulding is a more an even match if you were to compare her to an act, but given both Ellie's no.1s were held back for several weeks they had naturally massive first week sales. Stateside though Taylor is as big there as Ed is here so she'll easily storm to no.1 with massive first week sales.s

I went for her being no.1, she could do up to 60-80k maybe, but they'll be steady sales in the long run. I think she's being overestimated somewhat.

Posted by: Shaphne Aug 22 2017, 01:51 PM

Considering how big she became last era and now having streaming on her side, I can't see this not going to #1 officially.

Posted by: André Aug 22 2017, 06:10 PM

QUOTE(tommie @ Aug 22 2017, 04:14 AM) *
People are assuming that she'll be a huge streaming presence from day one based on... what?

My point is that she's not been a huge week #1 presence before in the UK, so what would change now? We have no receipts that she is.

Her last album sold over 1 million copies and had tons of huge hits. She is obviously more popular in the UK now than she was back when she released any of her other lead singles.

Posted by: MoistSummerFruit Aug 22 2017, 06:19 PM

And yet that Zayne single flopped and her album was very bad? People will not want to revisit, especially after being called a dnake by hlf the Internet and closing her Insta for comments. #4

Posted by: John-James Aug 22 2017, 06:21 PM

Flopped? rotf.gif You mean that Top 5, Platinum single?

Posted by: KY420 Aug 22 2017, 06:23 PM

QUOTE
I reckon she could well easily land herself her first no.1, especially given Dua's only shifting around 40k so it wont take a huge amount to get there.


This!

40-45k will probably do it. With chart sales so low right now I think 1.

Of course she could always run with a poor track, but unlikely........

Posted by: SKOB Aug 22 2017, 06:40 PM

QUOTE(John-James @ Aug 22 2017, 07:21 PM) *
Flopped? rotf.gif You mean that Top 5, Platinum single?


He's just being dramatic as usual tongue.gif

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Aug 22 2017, 07:08 PM

The album was utterly brilliant (and I don't even like her!)

Posted by: White Mustang Aug 23 2017, 07:46 AM

The Zayn single got off to a slow start (After a very fast start the first two days), but was eventually a really big hit in the US and UK.

Posted by: Bjork Aug 23 2017, 08:12 AM

definitely not a flop but could have done better if released closer to the movie release date and if the video had been made available sooner (and if it had been better too, was not bad but definitely could have been better)

Posted by: TS0301 Aug 23 2017, 02:10 PM

Looks like new Taylor will be straight to Radio 1 A List when its released on Friday, that should help! Definitely expecting this to hit #1.

Posted by: Liаm Aug 23 2017, 02:16 PM

#1 on all 3, 84k

Posted by: Lenny Aug 23 2017, 03:49 PM

Very excited for this, "1989" is one of my favourite pop albums of all time. It's amazing to see how she's grown in a decade.

Also WOW that all 53 of 53 have voted it will peak at number 1 on iTunes ohmy.gif that's pretty certain! tongue.gif

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 24 2017, 10:32 AM

has anyone heard it yet, or even know what it's called? rolleyes.gif

Posted by: danG Aug 24 2017, 10:37 AM

We won't know until tomorrow morning but this is a massively hyped comeback from one of the world's biggest popstars, no matter what it sounds like it's bound do to well.

Posted by: Lenny Aug 24 2017, 11:58 AM

An obvious guess would be that the single will be called "Snake" but that might be *too* obvious laugh.gif

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Aug 24 2017, 12:00 PM

It's called 'Timeless' isn't it?

(Obviously a Kamaliya cover)

Posted by: omrimayo Aug 24 2017, 12:16 PM

QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ Aug 24 2017, 02:00 PM) *
It's called 'Timeless' isn't it?

(Obviously a Kamaliya cover)


No one knows yet.

Posted by: vidcapper Aug 25 2017, 08:33 AM

What a great new song! wub.gif

Glad I held back before voting here.

#1's all the way, and 80-100k

Posted by: Jordan Lee Aug 25 2017, 05:05 PM

#1 iTunes
Top ten on Spotify but climb to #1 after bank holiday weekend
#1 debut officially
Just over 100k sales to total (around 70k from actual sales)

Posted by: danG Aug 25 2017, 10:12 PM

Here's another question - how long will it stay at #1?

At the rate it's decreasing on iTunes already it could well be only one week, but I'll wait for the first day Spotify figures to come in before making a proper prediction.

Posted by: JosephStyles Aug 25 2017, 10:14 PM

It's way too early to make any judgements about iTunes, this is just the fanbase effect wearing off and it'll decrease for a bit more over the weekend but I think she'll stabilise a fair bit come Monday.

Posted by: cqmerqn Aug 25 2017, 10:14 PM

I'll say #1 with 53K now

Posted by: danG Aug 25 2017, 10:17 PM

QUOTE(JosephStyles @ Aug 25 2017, 11:14 PM) *
It's way too early to make any judgements about iTunes, this is just the fanbase effect wearing off and it'll decrease for a bit more over the weekend but I think she'll stabilise a fair bit come Monday.

We'll see but I think considering the mixed reaction it's had it won't be a long running #1. Can't see it doing any more than 3 weeks.

Posted by: Capybréra Aug 25 2017, 10:23 PM

It'll get its debut at #1 but based on the start it has had on iTunes and the seemingly very mixed response to it I can see Dua reclaiming the top spot next week or the week after... still too early to tell though really.

Posted by: White Mustang Aug 25 2017, 10:29 PM

I can't see this having huge longevity due to the song itself which seems to be getting a bad reaction outside of Taylor's core fanbase. Although she is debuting the video on Sunday and her videos are usually events, so it could get a huge second wind.

Posted by: JosephStyles Aug 25 2017, 10:41 PM

See I'm getting What Do You Mean? parallels - late summer release, shot to #1 on iTunes with fanbase buys, video release during the VMAs, and ultimately getting a very first #1. Think it could hang around pretty well, would be shocked at this early stage if she only spent a single week at #1 when the barometer is so low.

Posted by: 777666jason Aug 26 2017, 03:42 PM

QUOTE(JosephStyles @ Aug 25 2017, 11:41 PM) *
See I'm getting What Do You Mean? parallels - late summer release, shot to #1 on iTunes with fanbase buys, video release during the VMAs, and ultimately getting a very first #1. Think it could hang around pretty well, would be shocked at this early stage if she only spent a single week at #1 when the barometer is so low.


Acordding to all sources the streets the place to go

Powered by Invision Power Board
© Invision Power Services