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| > The X Factor ● Series 13 ● Live Show 8, Louis Loves |
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 28th November 2016, 10:20 PM
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#281
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 I'm so into you, I can barely breathe
Joined: 12 November 2015
Posts: 812 User: 22,662 
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 Also Little Mix were the last favourites to win in week 2! |
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28th November 2016, 10:28 PM
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#282
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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I have been intrigued by the rebound vote this series as only Saara and Ryan have actually been safe the week after being in the bottom 2/3, everyone else has had consecutive bottom 2/3 appearances or were out on their first appearance. Now whether the rebound vote has been negated due to the convoluted bottom 2/3 scenario in the first five weeks I'm not sure. But even then, only Saara has been safe after a bottom 2 in the second half of the series too. In previous series it was almost a given that being in the sing-off one week means they are safe next week, this series doesn't seem to be following that pattern at all. I would usually assume 5AM would "bounce" themselves to the final at this stage thanks to a rebound vote, but in this series I'm very much doubting it.
Maybe the rise of app voting has meant that seen voting habits change. When it was phone voting, "normal" people would only vote once or twice for their favourite and the floating voters would perhaps vote once for the act that needs their vote most, hence the rebound vote. Now with app votes, we are looking at 5 or 10 votes for their favourite so maybe that negates the impact of the floating voters spreading votes around. I'm not sure, but last series - not the best comparison due to the shorter length - only Ché and Mason managed to get a rebound save whereas Kiera, Anton, Lauren and Ché (second time round) didn't. So I think app voting has reduced the impact of rebound votes. Compare that to the Little Mix series above, absolutely EVERYONE got a rebound vote except for Kitty (second time round) and Misha (third time round). Therefore without an exceptional performance, I'm not sure I see 5AM rebounding into the top 2 next week. It's a very interesting scenario though! It's also worth noting that when Saara and Ryan did break their runs of sing-offs it was with performances that are considered to be their personal bests by many - Its Oh So Quiet and Enough Is Enough for Saara and Twist and Shout for Ryan. I think app voting is also rewarding good performances. Whereas people would phone up for their favourite every week, now they get 5 votes to spread around they potentially throw one or two to exceedingly good performances alongside their actual favourite. This is what I think has benefited Saara. Her core support was obviously limited and two bottom 3s at the beginning proved that. But over the weeks her performances have been increasingly outstanding and I imagine people have been throwing her the odd vote or two for being the best performance on the night despite not being their actual favourite. Now as their favourites are leaving, I bet Saara is picking up a lot of these voters. Yet, this is why her vote is also the most volatile. As soon as she gives a slightly underwhelming performance - Sound of the Underground - these "odd one or two" votes quickly switch to someone else (oh look, this was the week Ryan survived, so maybe he took Saara's underdog votes/rebound votes). Saara still doesn't have the core support of a Matt or an Emily and bad production next week will easily see her back in the bottom two. Another set of outstanding performances however will see her continue to pick up the floating votes, and while Matt and Emily may stay stable in the vote with their core support bases if they give similarly safe performances again - this is how Saara could strike ahead. If the producers don't believe Matt can have a true "moment" of his own, this is why Saara could be sabotaged next week and her vote can easily be taken down. But if the producers fancy running with Saara now - was her random pimp slot on Saturday a last minute change after performing second in round 1? why are all the special guests suddenly shouting her out? - then I do believe she could finish in second place. Who knows, Saara has the potential to absolutely smash a potential winner's single performance and could make Matt worry for a second. Ooh this was quite a ramble but the morale of the story is that I believe Saara can still easily be sabotaged if the producers wish, but there are signs producers are getting on board with her now and she should be able to achieve the votes she needs to finish second with Emily and 5AM not picking up enough floating votes to add to their core supports. Matt does have enough core support without needing the floating votes, but will producers want to risk putting Saara up against him in a straight fight with presumably the same winner's single? It's definitely the most intriguing scenario we've had since the James Arthur series, although all the intrigue could be lost with Saara being saddled and sabotaged with Fairytale of New York on Saturday. |
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4th December 2016, 08:37 PM
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#283
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,070 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(Jonjo @ Nov 28 2016, 09:51 PM)  Those that are in doubt to whether the "rebound vote" exists or not, just need to look at these statistics!  Except from Kitty 
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