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[Doctor Blind]

I've been dreading looking back at my 2019 predictions...

[*]It is largely a foregone conclusion that Theresa May’s much delayed EU Withdrawal Agreement will be voted down in Parliament next Tuesday, the question remains; ‘By how much’ ? I suspect not the 3 figure numbers that some have touted that will kill it off entirely, as the ‘running down the clock’ strategy appears to be gaining some last minute reluctant support. However, it will be enough to cause widespread panic in the financial markets over the possibility of no deal.

It was voted down by a record defeat of 230, so no.

[*]Much chaos in Parliament ensues, May refuses to resign. The vote is brought back and reluctantly accepted (the irony of bringing it back for a 2nd vote is not lost on anyone) by promising an agreement on the future relationship that holds to a Norway style EFTA arrangement. Transition deal until end of 2021 is agreed.

Chaos did indeed ensue and the deal was brought back (twice) but not accepted.

[*]This will lead to splits in both the Conservative and the Labour party. May will be under pressure to resign but will face no leadership contest, she reluctantly agrees to go later in 2019 and is replaced by Amber Rudd.

Yes, we got Change(your party name every 10 seconds)UK with splits in both the Labour and Conservative party - and she did agree to leave. But we didn't get Amer Rudd did we? : (

[*]After Brexit expect continued pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to call a new EU referendum to rejoin from the grassroots and membership, eventually his leadership to be challenged later in the year if he does not yield to it. This may be killed off later in the year as the EU becomes embroiled within a different problem (the rise of populism: see later predictions on the EU) but I expect Corbyn, like May, may not be leader by the end of the year either.

This DID happen - and Corbyn is sort-of gone/going, so maybe my first correct prediction guys.

[*]In France President Macron will continue with his controversial reforms to pensions and the state, but these will be paused for the first half of the year to allow tension with the ‘Gillet Jaune’ movement to subside. Further concessions may be made to allow him to take people with him, rather than to force these somewhat unpopular changes through. By the end of the year his popularity will have improved somewhat.

Macron's approval rating has improved ever so slightly, but not really to the extent that I thought it might. C'est la vie.

[*]UK GDP growth will slide to below 1% in 2019 and interest rates will be held (perhaps even cut slightly later in the year) though oil prices will continue their malaise at the new lows that were scaled at the end of 2018 and that will help inflation to fall to below 2% in spite of further currency fluctuations in the £ given the uncertainty over Brexit that continues into the spring.

Pretty good actually, the rolling year-to-date GDP growth hit 1% exactly and interest rates were held and inflation has fallen to 1.5%.

[*]I suspect Trump WILL finally has his downfall later this year as the impeachment process is commenced, this after incredibly damning indictments from Mueller's report in March and the loss of any remaining allies. He resigns eventually but does not go quietly and blames it all on fake news as usual. There will be a huge upswing in female politician candidates announcing presidential campaigns for the Democrats and a continued growth in the Socialist Democrat movement fronted by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

He is impeached but not for the Mueller report, which was actually rather tepid- anyway, he hasn't resigned yet. Let's see what 2020 brings.

I'm looking forward to some more incorrect predictions for 2020, expect these - soon.