Possible contenders:
Fontaines DC (hope this gets in)
IDLES (this too please)
Kelly Lee Owens
Arlo Parks
UK rap (Nines, Headie One, Ghetts, Slowthai, AJ Tracey, Fredo, Bugzy Malone)
Jazz album (Sons Of Kemet may get through)
Creeper
Shame
Goat Girl
Declan McKenna
The Magic Gang
Architects
Celeste
The Anchoress [?]
Kojaque
London Grammar
Dry Cleaning
Jane Weaver
Debut album
At least one commercial success (Little Mix, Tom Grennan, Rag 'n' Bone Man)
Wish list: Black Country New Road, Black Midi, Squid, Bicep, Everything Everything, Disclosure, Roisin Murphy, Actress. SG Lewis, Alfie Templeman, For Those I Love, Royal Blood, Easy Life
Wolf Alice may not make it since their previous album won the prize
Gorillaz withdrew their nomination in 2001, so they may not make it either.
I'd be very very surprised if Wolf Alice don't make it on there tbh! Even though they did win last time
I can imagine them being hesitant to give Wolf Alice a second win in a row but yeah I would be surprised if they weren't even nominated.
Looking at the list of past nominations I am surprised to see that neither of London Grammar's previous albums were nominated at all - I'd really love to see this one make it for them. Also rooting for Squid and Bicep for first time nominations + Everything Everything and Disclosure to get nominated again (although I feel like those aren't super likely to happen). They really need to have at least some representation for the recent wave of British post-punk bands (Black Country, New Road / black midi / Dry Cleaning / Squid), am sure at least one or two of them will show up. Out of UK rap stuff I'd say Headie One, Ghetts and slowthai are the most likely to be nominated, and I'd love to see slowthai take the win after losing out to Dave with his debut (I see no reason he wouldn't be a strong contender again this year).
rooting for Bicep, Ben Howard and Arlo Parks
Black Country New Road, Squid and Black Midi all need to be on there (one of those really *should* win, though I suspect that probably won't happen)
Hoping to see a couple of curveball picks, I imagine Wolf Alice/Arlo Parks/slowthai are the safest bets to be nominated
Would love Wolf Alice to do the double no matter how unlikely that is.
Also would like Celeste, Arlo Parks, Ben Howard, Gorllaz, London Grammar, Jessie Ware, Royal Blood, Travis, Idles, Doves, Everything Everything & Declan McKenna
Bicep, London Grammar and Arlo Parks please *.*
Hmmmm
I have some mixed feelings about this list - firstly very disappointing that slowthai isn't even nominated (that's 2 years in a row they've just straight up snubbed an album I had a gut feeling would be the one to beat after Jessie Ware last year!) and while I'm glad to see they did indeed nominate one of the post-punk bands, unfortunately out of the 4 I mentioned BC,NR are the least interesting to me oops (justice for Squid </3)
On the bright side I hadn't even considered the possibility of Mogwai being on there (I mean I didn't really think beyond the ones mentioned in the OP ) and that is a great pick. It is one of only 3 albums on the entire list that I've listened to which is definitely a lot less than I was expecting. The other two are Wolf Alice (obvz) and Floating Points, which is a nice listen and I'm pleased to see it giving Floating Points his first nomination but like... why this and not his last solo album which I was rooting hard for a nomination last time
BERWYN is definitely an interesting artist and a well deserved pick (I loved 'VINYL', haven't been as into the other few songs I've heard from him though but still certainly one to watch), also think that Ghetts and Hannah Peel are solid choices. But then I really can't say I care much about any of the others (some decent songs here and there but nothing that has me invested much in the artists) so that's a full half of the list.
So I guess rooting for either Wolf Alice to do the double or Mogwai to take it. Not sure how likely either of those are. Now that slowthai is out of the picture my gut feeling is it'll be going to either Arlo or Celeste.
I already put out my thoughts on the nominees list on Twitter, so here is the embedded tweet
BCNR GANG LETS GOOOOOO
no nomination for Squid at least? 💀 wtf are you even doing
good for Laura Mvula making it and Mogwai too for some Scottish rep
Arlo seems the most Mercury-friendly option here so that's my prediction, obviously BCNR should be winning it by a landslide but I'm trying to stay realistic lol
Aww at Squid not making it on.
Leon Vynehall snub is also a HUGE oversight IMO!
It's been a while since the Mercury winning album wasn't one I loved, Sampha through to Kiwanuka all amongst my favourite albums of that particular year, and plenty to choose from to continue that.
I assume Black Is was released just before the cut off, I'd have said it would have been a likely win for SAULT given the acclaim it got but less so with Rise, though it's still definitely a contender.
Delighted to see Berwyn nominated, that first one I do prefer to his recent stuff so pleased it's the one nominated. A performance of 'Glory' will be exceptional
I really thought it would be between Squid, Sault and slowthai
🤡
Laura absolutely MUST win this
Laura! YYYEEESSSS!
I've heard more than I usually have here - Wolf Alice and Mogwai, don't expect either to win especially as the former already has one, but they're great albums.
Love what I've heard from Arlo Parks as well.
Laura or Sault would be my choice. I hope the latter are in with a good shot - I think I’m the only one who prefers Rise to Black Is
Wolf Alice Laura or Ghetts for me!
Winner being announced tonight - the bookies seem to think Laura has a good chance, if it doesn't go to BCNR she's the next best choice, so go her ~
I quite liked Laura's album, but I didn't find it particularly special compared to some of the other "80s revival" albums of the last 5 years or so really.
I doubt Mogwai will win it but hoping they somehow do! Expecting it to go to Arlo Parks though.
Arlo Parks would be a great winner, easily the best out of the nominated albums
omg absolutely THRILLED at Arlo winning!!
It’s my most played album of the past 12 months and it still all feels so fresh
Yeh Arlos album is one of the best of the year for me, current single ‘Too Good’ to chart in the singles on the back of this please!
OOPS the Mercury clowned themselves yet again
the BCNR record is in a different league from the others, and snorkel sales are going through the roof as we speak
Love that Arlo won. Such a beautiful album 😍
Congrats to Arlo, very much deserved, such a great album full of amazing songs
for once a great winner of the Mercury prize
Great winner, so thrilled for Arlo!
It's also congrats to Laura who despite missing out managed to scoop the £20 Popjustice prize for her MJ-esque bangah “Got Me”.
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