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 US Election 2020 thread. |
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 29th June 2019, 10:49 AM
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#181
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,420 User: 12,929                 |
Two schools of thought with Biden, one is yours, where he's already too far out in front to be affected, has the nomination in the bag, and becomes, well, John Kerry. Which doesn't end well for the Democrats. In the 21st century they've lost when they put up an establishment candidate who doesn't reach out and offer anything new. If they don't risk, they lose. They aren't in as nearly a strong position as we'd hope them to be.
But the other one, is that if he's going to lose at all, the way it starts is him getting attacked like he did by Kamala. This doesn't necessarily mean Kamala will be the nominee, but as the most memorable moment from the first debate it shows that there is weakness in Biden's campaign. And Harris has just regained a ton of relevance, putting her right back in the question. Any smart candidate will be attacking Biden in the second debate, they can only gain by doing so as they know the moderators will be focusing on him, knocking his poll numbers down to a more even field. And then, someone, maybe Buttigieg, maybe Warren, maybe Harris, sweeps in as a major contender and ousts him. Also, there's zero relevance, yet, I think, to the gender question, because Hillary won the popular vote, there's more women than ever running now, and for the most part, they made quite significant impacts in the debates. The amount of voters from 2016 to 2020 who wouldn't countenance a female president has surely gone down, not up, and that certainly wasn't the main thing Hillary was criticised for. |
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29th June 2019, 12:05 PM
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#182
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 Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,084 User: 3,474 
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I think Warren would get my vote if I was an American. She’s got a plan for literally everything, she’s got some exciting progressive policies and I think she really genuinely gives a f***. A Warren/Harris ticket would just be 🙌
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29th June 2019, 01:25 PM
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#183
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,833 User: 17,376
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From what Ive seen the majority of the candidates with potential are not the straight white males, with one exception. People need to get fired up to remove Trump, trouble is they are avoiding doing it now in case it boosts his popularity even though he clearly has committed endless impeachable offences, preferring instead battling a corrupt Republican party on a record of corruption headed by the biggest crook in the party (and there's plenty to pick from).
If they don't get the right candidate it could all backfire horribly for not impeaching him when they had the opportunity. Watch what happens in a few months - permission has been given to make investigations into Trump's goings-ons. He may still end up going before the election. |
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29th June 2019, 01:47 PM
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#184
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 BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,364 User: 23,471
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QUOTE(Common Sense @ Jun 28 2019, 11:04 PM)  From reading around the Net, mostly US sites, it seems the general consensus is that if it's Biden then he should choose Warren or Harris as his VP pick. I'm personally dreading next November as I think my hero Trump could well be beaten by Biden, especially if he has a younger female VP candidate.  Early polling shows Trump really trailing Biden in a head to head. Yes, early days yet and the campaign proper hasn't even begun and Trump will be a formidable opponent and campaigner.The thinking is that they may not want to risk another woman after Hillary lost to Trump.A woman lost once — a loss purely due to the electoral college. No one seems to worry about men running when they lose every four years. |
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29th June 2019, 01:59 PM
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#185
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,364 User: 23,471
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I think a problem with Biden that people are underestimating is he doesn't represent change or inspire the people needed to swing an election. I don't think he's actually going to convert Republicans as well as people think.
There are numerous candidates that can truly energise the youth vote, the undecided voters, and so on. Warren is especially impressive in how she has managed her grassroots campaign so far. Slow and steady — meticulous. She's even managing to portray her stereotypically 'socialist' policies as inherently American ideas. I'm so intrigued to see the debates when the filler candidates have disappeared. |
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29th June 2019, 05:49 PM
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#186
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Jun 29 2019, 02:25 PM) Watch what happens in a few months - permission has been given to make investigations into Trump's goings-ons. He may still end up going before the election. Then they'd still most likely have to beat Pence. This post has been edited by Common Sense: 29th June 2019, 05:50 PM |
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29th June 2019, 06:04 PM
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#187
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❤️❤️➕🟦
Joined: 3 June 2012
Posts: 22,246 User: 17,160
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I can’t confess to knowing the full ins and outs but Biden is uttterly the wrong choice. They need to move forward and not have someone so closely involved with the Obama administration, it just gives Trump amunition considering he’s STILL banging on about Obama/Hilary. A part of the problem with Hilary was her close association with the presidency before with being the First Lady and being part of Obama administration.
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30th June 2019, 04:02 AM
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#188
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,420 User: 12,929 |
QUOTE(Common Sense @ Jun 29 2019, 05:49 PM) Then they'd still most likely have to beat Pence. Pence doesn’t have this cult of personality and populist drive that Trump has, he’s really only great for the religious right. Depending on the timing of any potential office removal, he’s the sort of candidate that Biden could beat. More progressive candidates perhaps not, the huge advantage of someone like Warren or Sanders is that they undercut Trump’s rhetoric of being ‘different’ and he might be unsure on how to fight them, while I think Pence has the angle that he can start painting them as dangerous. Very inaccurate guesswork but I do think populism vs establishment will be huge this cycle and the DNC needs to get on that train. |
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30th June 2019, 07:52 PM
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#189
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 1 June 2013
Posts: 527 User: 19,091
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QUOTE(Common Sense @ Jun 28 2019, 10:04 PM) From reading around the Net, mostly US sites, it seems the general consensus is that if it's Biden then he should choose Warren or Harris as his VP pick. I'm personally dreading next November as I think my hero Trump could well be beaten by Biden, especially if he has a younger female VP candidate. Early polling shows Trump really trailing Biden in a head to head. Yes, early days yet and the campaign proper hasn't even begun and Trump will be a formidable opponent and campaigner.The thinking is that they may not want to risk another woman after Hillary lost to Trump.
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1st July 2019, 12:03 PM
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#190
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ Jun 30 2019, 05:02 AM) Very inaccurate guesswork but I do think populism vs establishment will be huge this cycle and the DNC needs to get on that train. They're never going to if they're not learning that lesson from 2016 already. |
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1st July 2019, 05:44 PM
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#191
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ Jun 30 2019, 05:02 AM) Pence doesn’t have this cult of personality and populist drive that Trump has, he’s really only great for the religious right. Depending on the timing of any potential office removal, he’s the sort of candidate that Biden could beat. More progressive candidates perhaps not, the huge advantage of someone like Warren or Sanders is that they undercut Trump’s rhetoric of being ‘different’ and he might be unsure on how to fight them, while I think Pence has the angle that he can start painting them as dangerous. Very inaccurate guesswork but I do think populism vs establishment will be huge this cycle and the DNC needs to get on that train. Can't see Trump being removed anyway. No chance. |
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21st August 2019, 08:13 PM
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#192
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Biden's lead holding up in the polls with Warren in second place and Harries dropping. Sanders has no chance. Can't see beyond Biden for the nomination at present.
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22nd August 2019, 06:05 PM
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#193
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,100 User: 18,639
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What polls are you looking at, MNBC's?
 Biden and Bernie smash Trump, but Bernie is aheas in all non-biased non-corporate polls. Hillary had a 50% lead on him whoopd. He beat her. Biden's lead is SHAKY and probably non existent. He has 12% core supporters. The don't knows/ maybe Biden fill up the rest. Why? Name recognition. Sanders is SUPPOSEDLY second btw. Harris has collapsed. Warren is only in it to steer the debates towards socialist ideas. Come the first primary, whoever gets lower between her and Bernie, and it'll be her, will drop out. Then Bernie's votes will DOUBLE. Bernie is ahead in the first primary - New Hampshire. Already. He didn't even manage that at first at this point vs Hillary. And he won that nomination!! What happens when he wins? Oh. More name recongition and ... MOMENTUM. Keep your head in the sun and daily mail where it belongs. |
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22nd August 2019, 09:25 PM
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#194
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,364 User: 23,471
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QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 22 2019, 07:05 PM) What polls are you looking at, MNBC's? Biden and Bernie smash Trump, but Bernie is aheas in all non-biased non-corporate polls. Hillary had a 50% lead on him whoopd. He beat her. Biden's lead is SHAKY and probably non existent. He has 12% core supporters. The don't knows/ maybe Biden fill up the rest. Why? Name recognition. Sanders is SUPPOSEDLY second btw. Harris has collapsed. Warren is only in it to steer the debates towards socialist ideas. Come the first primary, whoever gets lower between her and Bernie, and it'll be her, will drop out. Then Bernie's votes will DOUBLE. Bernie is ahead in the first primary - New Hampshire. Already. He didn't even manage that at first at this point vs Hillary. And he won that nomination!! What happens when he wins? Oh. More name recongition and ... MOMENTUM. Keep your head in the sun and daily mail where it belongs. I disagree with Warren only in this to steer the debates towards socialist ideas. She's clearly in it to win it. There is momentum for both of them (she's leading him in Iowa), but I think people who were considering Biden are more likely to go towards her than Bernie. She might surprise people. Also, do you really expect Bernie to dropout if Warren wins the first few primaries? He won't. |
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22nd August 2019, 10:22 PM
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#195
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,100 User: 18,639
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They absolutely have a pact. The only way to win is NOT share voters. The second, Warren, will be vp. She can then run for president and win easily coming off that. They are teaming up to take on Biden together. Btw, those polls are fake and have always underestimated Bernie due to his strength with independent voters.
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23rd August 2019, 06:33 AM
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#196
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Algernon Monqueef @ Aug 22 2019, 11:22 PM) They absolutely have a pact. The only way to win is NOT share voters. The second, Warren, will be vp. She can then run for president and win easily coming off that. They are teaming up to take on Biden together. Btw, those polls are fake and have always underestimated Bernie due to his strength with independent voters. Trump has the advantage over all of them as he's the sitting President and the encumbent is usually re-elected. Not always but the last few have been. He'll be very hard to beat. As the Tories here, the Republicans don't relinquish power easily. Remember, "it's all about the economy" and it's doing just fine. This post has been edited by Trump2020: 23rd August 2019, 06:33 AM |
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23rd August 2019, 01:01 PM
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#197
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,420 User: 12,929 |
It’s quite possible given his last week of insanity that his age and senility is actually catching up with him. If that is accurate and it gets worse then perhaps all we’d need is a Democrat appearing to be of sound mind (I.e. not Biden)
However the economy is a sticking point that might be hard to get past |
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23rd August 2019, 01:46 PM
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#198
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 there's nothing straight about plump Elvis
Pronouns: they/any
Joined: 21 January 2016 Posts: 13,144 User: 22,895 
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Team Warren!
Let's hope Trump's age catches up to him sooner rather than later. |
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23rd August 2019, 01:50 PM
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#199
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
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QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Aug 23 2019, 07:33 AM) Remember, "it's all about the economy" and it's doing just fine. The vast, vast majority of his 2016 voters cite social and identity-based reasons for electing him, not economics. |
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23rd August 2019, 02:13 PM
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#200
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,420 User: 12,929 |
QUOTE(Harve @ Aug 23 2019, 01:50 PM) The vast, vast majority of his 2016 voters cite social and identity-based reasons for electing him, not economics. However I’m concerned about floating voters, especially if the Democrat has a high cost flagship policy. it’s certainly true his base isn’t concerned about economics but they’re most certainly not above using it as an unquestionable success. |
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