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 UK By-election Thread, 2017-2018 |
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 Apr 4 2019, 09:42 PM
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#41
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 Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138 
  
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No surprise there then!
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Apr 4 2019, 10:07 PM
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#42
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 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
  
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(Very) early indication is that Labour have won Newport West, but interestingly (and somewhat worryingly) there is the suggestion that Ukip may have beaten the Tories into 2nd place. Obviously this is very early reporting, but concerning if it means that Ukip could be on the rise again.
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Apr 4 2019, 11:17 PM
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#43
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
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An interesting result which could lead to May and the tories possibly thinking again about speaking with Jeremy to come to a softer deal and it could mix the vote up between labour/tories in a GE if it's seen as Brexit didn't happen with a deal.
Good to see labour hold hopefully! |
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Apr 4 2019, 11:49 PM
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#44
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
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37% turnout and it rained all day, not too bad.
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Apr 5 2019, 11:39 AM
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#45
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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Labour won, although there was a 2% swing to the Tories. UKIP ended up a distant 3rd, but with an improved vote share of 8%. Plaid Cymru the only other party to retain their deposit - the Lib Dem’s and Greens lost theirs.
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Apr 5 2019, 12:59 PM
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#46
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 5 2019, 11:39 AM)  Labour won, although there was a 2% swing to the Tories. UKIP ended up a distant 3rd, but with an improved vote share of 8%. Plaid Cymru the only other party to retain their deposit - the Lib Dem’s and Greens lost theirs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Newport_West_by-election Bit of a 'plague on both your houses' result - combined big two vote share want down by 20%. 
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Apr 5 2019, 11:22 PM
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#47
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
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But given the turnout and the seat it's hard to see any change since the last GE!
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May 1 2019, 06:07 PM
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#48
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272
      
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The recall petition in Peterborough easily gained the required number of signatures, so there will be a byelection. It's too late for it to be held on the same day as the European elections, so I would guess it will be some time in June.
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May 1 2019, 06:17 PM
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#49
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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28% of the electorate signed the petition - that is some number, even more so when you consider that Ian Paisley didn't meet the 10% threshold.
I'd predicted in the 2019 thread that if there was a by-election in Peterborough the Conservatives would win, and for the time being I'm sticking with that prediction, even with their current shambolic position & the threat of the Brexit Party, I think Onasanya & Change UK running will split the vote and grant the Conservatives the win. Also, I believe that the SDP's Patrick O'Flynn, ex-MEP, is from here, so he might end up running in this by-election. |
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May 1 2019, 06:21 PM
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#50
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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Also, a parliamentary procedural query - is this the first time that an MP has stood down from their role as an MP without having to take the Chiltern Hundreds/Baron of Northstead? Or is this similar to if an MP is forced to step down due to a long custodial sentence and/or lunacy?
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May 1 2019, 06:31 PM
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#51
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272
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I assume it is covered by the same rules as MPs getting a custodial sentence. In most circumstances, an MP can only resign in order to take up another post under the Crown. Therefore, the Chiltern Hundreds and the Baron of Northstead posts are purely fake positions that departing MPs can take up. Isn't it all wonderfully silly?
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May 2 2019, 04:52 AM
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#52
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ May 1 2019, 07:17 PM) 28% of the electorate signed the petition - that is some number, even more so when you consider that Ian Paisley didn't meet the 10% threshold. I'd predicted in the 2019 thread that if there was a by-election in Peterborough the Conservatives would win, and for the time being I'm sticking with that prediction, even with their current shambolic position & the threat of the Brexit Party, I think Onasanya & Change UK running will split the vote and grant the Conservatives the win. Also, I believe that the SDP's Patrick O'Flynn, ex-MEP, is from here, so he might end up running in this by-election. I bet she's thinking 'I should have just taken that damned speeding ticket'.
This post has been edited by vidcapper: May 3 2019, 04:53 AM |
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May 2 2019, 08:28 PM
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#53
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272
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The Peterborough byelection will be on 6 June, the e75th anniversary of D-Day.
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May 2 2019, 08:40 PM
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#54
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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That was a pretty swift moving of the writ. Given how many government votes recently have been decided by a single vote (including one where Onasanya's vote would have made the difference), I can understand why.
The major parties have all got candidates already selected, so they must have seen the writing on the wall for this for some time. One additional candidate that has been rumoured is George Galloway, who has said that he is willing to stand for the Brexit Party, because the horseshoe theory is well. Of all the parties that I expected to have a handful of communists running for them, the Brexit Party was not one of them... |
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May 3 2019, 12:54 AM
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#55
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272
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With just five weeks to go before the byelection, the Tories have lost control of Peterborough council.
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May 9 2019, 06:48 PM
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#56
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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There's a mammoth FIFTEEN candidates in the Peterborough by-election. They are:
Brexit Party - Mike Greene Christian People's Alliance - Tom Rogers Common Good: Remain in the EU - Dick Rodgers Conservatives - Paul Bristow English Democrats - Stephen Goldspink Green Party - Joseph Wells Independent - John Moore Independent - Bobby Smith Labour - Lisa Forbes Liberal Democrats - Beki Sellick Official Monster Raving Loony Party - Alan "Howling Laud" Hope Renew - Peter Ward SDP Fighting for Brexit - Patrick O'Flynn UK European Union Party - Pierre Kirk UKIP - John Whitby Some points of interest here. Change UK are not running a candidate here, although Renew, a pro-Remain party which has put its support behind CUK in the European elections, is. Bobby Smith previously stood in Theresa May's constituency in 2017 dressed up as Elmo, winning a paltry 3 votes. There are two Christian parties contesting, both on different sides of the Brexit divide - Common Good (who are pro-Remain), and CPA, who favour leave. Both will struggle to get into triple figures. And the SDP are running in another by-election, this time running their former MEP, so regaining their deposit is not beyond the realms of possibility. I'm still sticking to my original prediction and going for a Conservative victory. There are so many parties on both sides likely to split the vote, and things will end up favouring the Conservatives, although I imagine their vote share will be sub-30%. |
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May 9 2019, 06:56 PM
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#57
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272
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So the former MP either gave up or couldn't find enough people to sign her nomination papers.
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May 9 2019, 07:06 PM
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#58
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
   
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If the most recent by-election result, in Newport West, were repeated here with explicitly Remain parties snatching nearly a quarter of Labour's 2017 vote, then Labour could indeed be in trouble. The Lib Dems were moderately successful in Peterborough in the noughties. Hopefully the Tories will fall further than the 8.5% they did in April though.
I'm not voting Labour in the Euros but if I would do so in this by-election, where the smaller parties stand no chance. Labour will be hoping that Peterborough's electorate make the same calculation, where the city council vote went as follows (not entirely congruous with the Peterborough constituency): Conservative: 31.4% (-5.9%) Labour: 28.3% (-1.2%) Lib Dems: 15.6% (+12.5%) Greens: 10.6% (+4.1%) UKIP: 8% (-7.1%) Independents: 5.3% (+5.3%) Other Parties: 0.7% (-2%) (changes from 2015) Note that Peterborough is a moderately Leave constituency and yet the Greens and particularly the Lib Dems were able to very impressive gains in vote share. Either because of the simple and convenient explanation that the Locals weren't all about Brexit, or because of the oft-forgotten fact that even 60% Leave constituencies still have some 40% of their electorate who voted Remain + those who changed their mind/were never particularly committed to Leave in the first place. Do as the commentariat are and pick whichever interpretation you prefer. I know which one I want to be true. |
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May 30 2019, 08:03 PM
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#59
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
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So if next week's by-election results are as close to as fragmented as they were for the council elections for other parties then this could easily allow the Brexit Party to come through and win.
The EU election results for the constituency: BXP: 37% LAB: 22.4% LIB: 13.3% GRN: 10% CON: 9.9% UKIP: 3.3% CUK: 2.6% The constituency isn't congruous with the local authority: the LA includes wealthier rural areas to the south and west of the city itself where the Tories are stronger. The constituency is slightly more Brexit-y but actually had a lower Brexit Party vote (38.3% for the LA) since the Brexit Party is much better at attracting Tory Leave voters than it did Labour Leave voters. If I were in that constituency I'd grit my teeth and vote Labour. |
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May 30 2019, 09:10 PM
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#60
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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The bookies have called it for the Brexit Party in Peterborough, 1-5. Why didn't Farage stand? His best chance yet of becoming an MP and actually having a voice.
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