Welcome, guest! Log in or register. (click here for help) If you have forgotten your password and a recovery email has not arrived, please click here to send us an email.
  |
 How many seats will the Parties get in the 4/7/24 election?, Prediction thread |
| Track this thread | Email this thread | Print this thread | Download this thread | Subscribe to this forum |
  23rd May 2024, 09:13 PM
Post
#1
|
|
 Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 47,347 User: 5,138 
   |
The title says it all.
Happy for a mod to stick a poll on as well with the 0-50, 50-100 style. Here’s my predictions on day one: Conservatives 155 Labour 405 Scottish National Party 36 Liberal Democrat 29 NI 18 - SF 8 SDLP 2 Alliance 3 5 DUP Plaid 4 Reform 1 Green 2 This post has been edited by Doctor Blind: 25th May 2024, 09:56 AM |
 |
 
|
|
24th May 2024, 10:50 AM
Post
#2
|
|
|
BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 6 December 2023
Posts: 1,809 User: 173,568
 |
Just copied and pasted not sure on the welsh stuff
Conservatives 145 Labour 401 Scottish National Party 27 Liberal Democrat 58 NI 18 - SF 9 SDLP 2 Alliance 3 5 DUP Plaid 4 Reform 0 Green 1 |
|
|
|
|
24th May 2024, 11:21 AM
Post
#3
|
|
 Resident Pink Pony
Joined: 9 March 2008
Posts: 15,717 User: 5,567
  |
I’ll have more of a think and get back to this!
|
|
|
|
|
24th May 2024, 11:38 AM
Post
#4
|
|
|
BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 February 2007
Posts: 15,166 User: 3,002
 |
My initial thoughts (and basically this is after years of being underwhelmed and frustrated by Elections/ the referendum) are that the Tories will do better than expected. The Lib Dems wont make the gains they're expecting to. - i'm sure they'll make gains, but they'll be modest.
Labour will have a majority, but I don't think its going to anywhere near as big as expecting some polls are suggesting. Reform wont get any seats, but like UKIP will poll 2nd/ 3rd in alot of places. The Greens remain on 1, the SNP have a slight collapse, but still maintain around 30. I think its just the pessimist in me and not really having faith in the British public to actually not vote Tory. Hopefully i'm wrong though and the Tories do as badly as the wipe-out polls suggest This post has been edited by ElectroBoy: 24th May 2024, 11:38 AM |
|
|
|
|
24th May 2024, 11:54 AM
Post
#5
|
|
|
Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,228 User: 4,718
     |
205 Conservatives
395 Labour 10 SNP 35 Liberal Democrat 3 Plaid 0 Reform 2 Green 8 Sinn Fein 7 DUP 2 SDLP 2 Alliance Something like that but I have not looked at current projections in detail where it would be easy to look at the number of realistic targets for the smaller parties. I think the SNP could look very shaky indeed in any Labour or Lib Dem-facing seat and face a much stickier Scottish Tory vote so it could be very volatile. Fun fact: the Tory vs. Labour swing in Scotland has gone the opposite way in Scotland compared to England in the last four Westminster elections: swing to Labour in 2010 (!), hugely against Labour in 2015, against Labour in 2017, against Labour in 2019. It looks like it will be in sync this time. QUOTE(Steve201 @ 23rd May 2024, 11:13 PM)  NI 18 - SF 9 SDLP 2 Alliance 3 5 DUP Where are these DUP losses happening? |
|
|
|
|
24th May 2024, 12:44 PM
Post
#6
|
|
|
Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,832 User: 10,455
   |
Conservatives 249
Labour 328 Scottish National Party 9 Liberal Democrat 41 NI 18 - SF 7 SDLP 1 Alliance 1 DUP 8 IND/UUP 1 Plaid 3 Reform 0 Green 0 IND/Others - 2 (1 being Corbyn) In relation to NI, I predict that Sinn Fein will gain Foyle from SDLP but lose North Belfast to the DUP. Alliance will lose North Down to Alex Easton if he stands, or UUP if he doesn’t. Alliance will gain Lagan Valley. Sinn Fein will just about hang on to Fermanagh South Tyrone, although will be one of the first by-elections of the new parliament if Michelle Gildernew is elected as an MEP in the South (although legally she can be both, which is an odd quirk). |
|
|
|
|
24th May 2024, 02:19 PM
Post
#7
|
|
|
Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 47,347 User: 5,138
|
QUOTE(Harve @ 24th May 2024, 12:54 PM) 205 Conservatives 395 Labour 10 SNP 35 Liberal Democrat 3 Plaid 0 Reform 2 Green 8 Sinn Fein 7 DUP 2 SDLP 2 Alliance Something like that but I have not looked at current projections in detail where it would be easy to look at the number of realistic targets for the smaller parties. I think the SNP could look very shaky indeed in any Labour or Lib Dem-facing seat and face a much stickier Scottish Tory vote so it could be very volatile. Fun fact: the Tory vs. Labour swing in Scotland has gone the opposite way in Scotland compared to England in the last four Westminster elections: swing to Labour in 2010 (!), hugely against Labour in 2015, against Labour in 2017, against Labour in 2019. It looks like it will be in sync this time. Where are these DUP losses happening? Potentially in Lagan Valley and East Belfast |
|
|
|
|
25th May 2024, 09:20 AM
Post
#8
|
|
|
#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,273 User: 7,561
  |
Electoral Calculus curently has the following:
LAB 479 (Majority 308) CON 92 *.* LIB 44 REF 0 GRN 2 SNP 12 PC 3 DUP 8 SF 7 SDLP 2 AL 1 I think there are huge error bars on the final result - Labour could be around 350-380 most likely I think - but it wouldn't take much for them to be as high as 450+ or so as this prediction has with the Tories utterly DESTROYED. (The outcome I'm hoping for, obvs). I believe the Green gain is predicted to be Bristol Central. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bi...Bristol+Central I have added a poll btw, if you would like me to add others please let me know - I just didn't want it to become too unwieldy. The bins are probably a bit wide, I could narrow them a bit but tried to make it fairly reasonable. Send all feedback to Brett-Butler xx |
|
|
|
|
25th May 2024, 10:33 AM
Post
#9
|
|
 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Pronouns: he/they
Joined: 3 February 2011 Posts: 37,861 User: 12,929             |
My current prediction that I put into YAPMS about a month or so, online tool for visualising political maps - bit fiddly for doing the whole 600 seat thing as the website was designed with US state predictions where you 'only' have to click 50 things to make your prediction.
Obviously I went a little general with some of the areas of the country I'm less familiar with and it's based a little on vibes with the minor parties so I'm not predicting specific seat results from the map in the above link, more filling in areas with parties I expect to get seats in around that area, but it's a decent estimation for the start of the campaign, I'll rejig it for a full thing later on once I get more of an idea and poke around some constitutencies in detail. Labour 430 Conservatives 115 Lib Dems 56 SNP 19 Reform 5 Green 2 Plaid 4 SF 8 DUP 7 Alliance 2 SDLP 1 Possibly a little high on LDs and Reform but I am expecting even nominally safe seats for the Conservatives to become fights with their nearest challengers which could lead to a few unexpected victories here and there. |
|
|
|
|
25th May 2024, 11:18 AM
Post
#10
|
|
|
#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,273 User: 7,561
|
The Lib Dems could definitely benefit quite significantly from Tactical Voting- I wouldn't be surprised to see them be as high as 56. If they do end up in that region, there's not a totally impossible chance they end up as the official opposition, which would be hilarious.
Reform on the other hand will struggle to pick up anything, their vote mainly goes towards reducing the number of seats the Tories get by splitting the Leave/right wing/conservative vote with some 2nd place finishes and Labour squeaking though, until you get north of 15-17% (even the biggest polls for them recently haven't been high enough and then will likely fall back now)- even Ashfield which is currently held by Lee Anderson of Reform is predicted to go back to Labour atm. The seats where Reform placed 2nd in Survation's MRP in March were: Barnsley North, Barnsley South, Easington, Hartlepool, South Shields, Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney and Rhondda & Ogmore - all of which were predicted to be big Labour wins. I think had Nigel Farage stood in somewhere like Clacton they may have picked up a seat - but that's not happening now. |
|
|
|
|
25th May 2024, 11:50 AM
Post
#11
|
|
|
Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 47,347 User: 5,138
|
I wonder how the Labour right who would vote reform would say ‘ok happy with the London based Starmer enough to vote him’?
|
|
|
|
|
26th May 2024, 08:25 PM
Post
#12
|
|
|
BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 7 May 2021
Posts: 285 User: 129,529
  |
went with Labour 350-399, Conservative 100-199, Lib Dem 25-49. think current projections of Labour nearing 500 and Tories in double digits aren't very realistic, though I would love to see the Tories reduced to nothing.
|
|
|
|
|
26th May 2024, 11:35 PM
Post
#13
|
|
|
Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,102 User: 5,342
   |
So my general thoughts of what will happen are:
- Labour's lead over the tories to be just inside 20 points thanks to the don't knows/Tory core vote coming back home - Lib Dems perform well in their target seats and especially well in the South East/West - Greens perform well in big metropolitan areas to move into some distant second places in inner-London and/or some other big urban areas but don't make the breakthrough beyond Brighton Pavillion, which they'll hold on a tight majority. - Reform perform like UKIP but slightly worse (i.e. no seats) - SNP get destroyed in the Central Belt but are a bit more resilient in their Tory-facing seats in the borders & north east - Plaid Cymru hold what they have and not much more - DUP lose votes to the UUP/Alliance/TUV across the board leading to a few seat losses to Alliance So with that all told, Labour 426 Conservative 114 Lib Dems 68 SNP 20 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Reform 0 DUP 6 Sinn Feinn 6 Alliance 3 SDLP 3 Independents 2 (Jeremy Corbyn & Jason Zadrozny) |
|
|
|
|
27th May 2024, 12:49 AM
Post
#14
|
|
|
Resident Pink Pony
Joined: 9 March 2008
Posts: 15,717 User: 5,567
|
Labour 347
Conservative 201 Lib Dems 36 SNP 32 DUP 12 Plaid Cymru 5 Sinn Feinn 5 SDLP 4 Green 3 Alliance 3 Reform 2 Independents 0 |
|
|
|
|
27th May 2024, 05:51 AM
Post
#15
|
|
|
Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,228 User: 4,718
|
QUOTE(Harve @ 24th May 2024, 01:54 PM) 205 Conservatives 395 Labour 10 SNP 35 Liberal Democrat 3 Plaid 0 Reform 2 Green 8 Sinn Fein 7 DUP 2 SDLP 2 Alliance Just realised my guess has 650 seats for GB alone oops |
|
|
|
|
27th May 2024, 11:02 AM
Post
#16
|
|
|
Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,832 User: 10,455
|
QUOTE(LexC @ 27th May 2024, 12:35 AM) So my general thoughts of what will happen are: - Labour's lead over the tories to be just inside 20 points thanks to the don't knows/Tory core vote coming back home - Lib Dems perform well in their target seats and especially well in the South East/West - Greens perform well in big metropolitan areas to move into some distant second places in inner-London and/or some other big urban areas but don't make the breakthrough beyond Brighton Pavillion, which they'll hold on a tight majority. - Reform perform like UKIP but slightly worse (i.e. no seats) - SNP get destroyed in the Central Belt but are a bit more resilient in their Tory-facing seats in the borders & north east - Plaid Cymru hold what they have and not much more - DUP lose votes to the UUP/Alliance/TUV across the board leading to a few seat losses to Alliance So with that all told, Labour 426 Conservative 114 Lib Dems 68 SNP 20 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Reform 0 DUP 6 Sinn Feinn 6 Alliance 3 SDLP 3 Independents 2 (Jeremy Corbyn & Jason Zadrozny) Where do you think the SDLP will pick up a seat? Given their decline they’re going to struggle to even hold on to even one of their current seats. |
|
|
|
|
27th May 2024, 11:06 AM
Post
#17
|
|
|
Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,832 User: 10,455
|
QUOTE(Scene @ 27th May 2024, 01:49 AM) Labour 347 Conservative 201 Lib Dems 36 SNP 32 DUP 12 Plaid Cymru 5 Sinn Feinn 5 SDLP 4 Green 3 Alliance 3 Reform 2 Independents 0 Which seats in the rest of Great Britain do you expect the DUP to pick up? (There’s only 18 seats in Northern Ireland) 
|
|
|
|
|
27th May 2024, 02:29 PM
Post
#18
|
|
|
Resident Pink Pony
Joined: 9 March 2008
Posts: 15,717 User: 5,567
|
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ 27th May 2024, 12:06 PM) Which seats in the rest of Great Britain do you expect the DUP to pick up? (There’s only 18 seats in Northern Ireland) Yeah I suspected that may have been a stupid number 
|
|
|
|
|
27th May 2024, 04:29 PM
Post
#19
|
|
|
Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 47,347 User: 5,138
|
Thank goodness they don’t have 12 seats lol
|
|
|
|
|
27th May 2024, 09:24 PM
Post
#20
|
|
|
Resident Pink Pony
Joined: 9 March 2008
Posts: 15,717 User: 5,567
|
QUOTE(Steve201 @ 27th May 2024, 05:29 PM) Thank goodness they don’t have 12 seats lol It wasn’t the most optimistic prediction 
|
|
|
|
|
| Time is now: 26th September 2024, 02:48 PM |
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 BuzzJack.com
