BuzzJack
Entertainment Discussion

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register | Help )

Latest Site News
14 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> European Election Thread 2019, EU, baby.
Track this topic - Email this topic - Print this topic - Download this topic - Subscribe to this forum
European Elections
You cannot see the results of the poll until you have voted. Please login and cast your vote to see the results of this poll.
Total Votes: 45
Guests cannot vote 
Brett-Butler
post Apr 8 2019, 05:52 PM
Post #1
Howdy, disco citizens.
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 11,052
Member No.: 10,455
Joined: 16-January 10
   No Gallery Pics
 


Given that it looks almost certain now that the United Kingdom is going to be taking part in the European Parliamentary elections on May 23rd, I thought that now is the time to open up a thread for the upcoming EU elections. This thread should be for discussion of the upcoming elections, with Brexit-based discussion remaining in the Brexit thread, although I'm sure there's going to be some overlap.

I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of members of Buzzjack who are outside the UK but within the EU on what the voting & atmosphere is like for the elections in your country, we've got some pan-European members, and I would very much would value your contributions.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Izzy
post Apr 9 2019, 04:06 AM
Post #2
resident woke weeb
*******
Group: Admin.
Posts: 30,697
Member No.: 12,929
Joined: 3-February 11
   No Gallery Pics
 


Good point. I've started the process of setting up a proxy vote.

If these elections do take place in the UK they will almost certainly be fought along Brexit lines and will likely have the highest turnout for an EU election. They're also PR which means no tactical voting!

So that means, in my opinion, there's very little reason to vote for a party not cemented on its Brexit strategy (like Labour). Assuming that these take place under the conditions of an extension, if you would like to ultimately Remain, you should vote Liberal Democrats or Green in England, and then Plaid or SNP in their respective areas. Not sure about NI.

Of course, one should also consider what the MEPs actually do, and we definitely should not reward those who take huge salaries and end up doing very little, like UKIP's MEPs. So if you must base your vote on Leave, vote Conservative I guess. Then, after you've evaluated whether the MEPs in your area are suitable people for the job, it depends which big political grouping you want to see take charge, although I'm sure it will very likely end up with EPP as the largest, which the UK can't do anything about, cheers Cameron.

I do love me some good electoral maths so I'm sure I'll end up following this closely even if the UK isn't taking part.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
vidcapper
post Apr 9 2019, 05:21 AM
Post #3
Paul Hyett
*******
Group: Members
Posts: 23,695
Member No.: 364
Joined: 4-April 06
   No Gallery Pics
 


The only think that feels certain is a high vote for UKIP from pissed-off Leavers.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Izzy
post Apr 9 2019, 06:00 AM
Post #4
resident woke weeb
*******
Group: Admin.
Posts: 30,697
Member No.: 12,929
Joined: 3-February 11
   No Gallery Pics
 


Not necessarily. If any Leavers have been paying attention to what MEPs do, they'll know how ineffectual the UKIP ones are at engaging with the European Parliament. UKIP have really lost their way in credibility.

There's also Farage's new party, the Brexit Party, how well that does I suspect will depend on his charisma and how much the media makes them a viable option, but it does provide an alternative to those disillusioned by UKIP. And then Conservatives will also be courting Leave votes very heavily.

For which party gains the highest number of votes/MEPs I'd actually say it SEEMS like anyone's game.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Brett-Butler
post Apr 9 2019, 08:51 PM
Post #5
Howdy, disco citizens.
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 11,052
Member No.: 10,455
Joined: 16-January 10
   No Gallery Pics
 


The big story I imagine that will come out of these EU elections will be the much expected populist shift, with parties across Europe that had little or no representation in the prior parliament making significant gains, including Sweden Democrats, Afd in Germany, Lega in Italy, National Rally (and possibly En Marche!) in France, the Forum for Democracy in Netherlands (a party that didn't even exist 2 years ago, but won the 2019 provincial elections, taking the populist torch from Geert van Legohair's party), and Vox and Podemos in Spain, as well as populist movements in other, smaller countries. Interestingly, the only country that don't seem to have a populist party with a serious chance of winning seats is in the Republic of Ireland (although Peter Casey's result in the Irish Presidential election shows that even there, there is a market for populism).

As for the UK, it will be anyone's guess as to which party gains the most seats. Leavers could be drawn back to Ukip, which as I've mentioned before, has become a much more frightening beast since Batten took over. Nigel Farage's new party could get a few seats, and Remainers should be quietly hoping that he takes a bite out of Ukip's cherry (it is one of the strangest paradoxes in politics that the more popular Nigel Farage becomes, the greater the support for the EU). The European elections usually gives the chances of smaller parties their first opportunity to break through politically due to its PR system, as seen back in 2009 when the BNP won two seats, earning it a chair on that infamous edition of Question Time. This year (provided EU elections do happen in the EU), I can't see any parties having the same breakthrough, with the exception of the Brexit Party, and Change UK (although it will be interesting to see who they put up as election candidates - I wonder if any of their MPs will put their money where their mouth is in terms of their support of the EU by putting themselves forward for the lists at this election, and take their seats in the European Parliament if they win).

Overall, with the amount of fragmentation, I think that it will be Labour that ends up with the most seats, albeit there won't be much in it between them and some of the other parties.

In NI, it'll be the same 3 representatives - DUP, Sinn Fein & UUP.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Suedehead2
post Apr 9 2019, 09:20 PM
Post #6
BuzzJack Legend
*******
Group: Admin.
Posts: 27,878
Member No.: 3,272
Joined: 13-April 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


There tend to be a presumption against MPs also serving as MEPs (although there is no legal block), so I doubt any of the Chuka MPs will stand.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Brett-Butler
post Apr 9 2019, 09:22 PM
Post #7
Howdy, disco citizens.
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 11,052
Member No.: 10,455
Joined: 16-January 10
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 9 2019, 10:20 PM) *
There tend to be a presumption against MPs also serving as MEPs (although there is no legal block), so I doubt any of the Chuka MPs will stand.


My thinking is that in such a scenario, they would then resign their seat in the HoC in order to go to Brussels, therefore demonstrating their loyalty to the EU in the strongest possible terms.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
vidcapper
post Apr 10 2019, 05:21 AM
Post #8
Paul Hyett
*******
Group: Members
Posts: 23,695
Member No.: 364
Joined: 4-April 06
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Iz~ @ Apr 9 2019, 07:00 AM) *
Not necessarily. If any Leavers have been paying attention to what MEPs do, they'll know how ineffectual the UKIP ones are at engaging with the European Parliament. UKIP have really lost their way in credibility.

There's also Farage's new party, the Brexit Party, how well that does I suspect will depend on his charisma and how much the media makes them a viable option, but it does provide an alternative to those disillusioned by UKIP. And then Conservatives will also be courting Leave votes very heavily.

For which party gains the highest number of votes/MEPs I'd actually say it SEEMS like anyone's game.


IMO it'll be like any election other than a GE : low turnout, with voters merely treating it as an opinion poll, in which case I predict UKIP will do very well again.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Steve201
post Apr 10 2019, 10:18 PM
Post #9
Shakin Stevens
*******
Group: Members
Posts: 25,290
Member No.: 5,138
Joined: 29-December 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


I wonder if the generally public will be confused by the changes in UKIP over the past 5 years and how Farage has changed to the Brexit Party?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Brett-Butler
post Apr 10 2019, 10:29 PM
Post #10
Howdy, disco citizens.
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 11,052
Member No.: 10,455
Joined: 16-January 10
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Steve201 @ Apr 10 2019, 11:18 PM) *
I wonder if the generally public will be confused by the changes in UKIP over the past 5 years and how Farage has changed to the Brexit Party?


Short answer - yes, and it is something that troubles me greatly. It will take some incredibly intelligent persuasion skills by someone with a national platform to get it through to the general public that a) Ukip of 2019 are not the same as the Ukip of 2014, and b) to not vote for them in spite of what they are now (because unfortunately, even if people are aware of the depths that Ukip have sunk under Batten, many will still vote for them regardless).

Unfortunately, I do not think there is a persuader with the requisite skills that can navigate those choppy waters.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Steve201
post Apr 10 2019, 10:43 PM
Post #11
Shakin Stevens
*******
Group: Members
Posts: 25,290
Member No.: 5,138
Joined: 29-December 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


It'll happen because people will inevitably think Farage is still the leader and they associate the party as the Brexit party. Or both parties could stop the other doing well.

Seen a poll today for the EU elections -

Labour 37%
Conservative 23%
Brexit Party 11%
Liberals 7%
Change UK 4%
UKIP 7%
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Rooney
post Apr 10 2019, 11:06 PM
Post #12
WINTER IS COMING
*******
Group: Global Mod
Posts: 41,247
Member No.: 88
Joined: 7-March 06
 


These Euro elections are going to be bloody important, don't vote Labour unless they come out with a clear stance on what type of Brexit they want.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
vidcapper
post Apr 11 2019, 05:54 AM
Post #13
Paul Hyett
*******
Group: Members
Posts: 23,695
Member No.: 364
Joined: 4-April 06
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Steve201 @ Apr 10 2019, 11:18 PM) *
I wonder if the generally public will be confused by the changes in UKIP over the past 5 years and how Farage has changed to the Brexit Party?


Most won't be - Leavers will still pick an anti-EU party to vote for, they won't much care which.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Popchartfreak
post Apr 11 2019, 07:22 AM
Post #14
BuzzJack Platinum Member
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 14,764
Member No.: 17,376
Joined: 18-July 12
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Rooney @ Apr 11 2019, 12:06 AM) *
These Euro elections are going to be bloody important, don't vote Labour unless they come out with a clear stance on what type of Brexit they want.


I won't be voting Labour after the shambles stances Corbyn has taken, the good news is PR votes count so everyone can actually vote FOR a party rather than AGAINST one to stop them winning.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
vidcapper
post Apr 11 2019, 02:06 PM
Post #15
Paul Hyett
*******
Group: Members
Posts: 23,695
Member No.: 364
Joined: 4-April 06
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Apr 11 2019, 08:22 AM) *
I won't be voting Labour after the shambles stances Corbyn has taken, the good news is PR votes count so everyone can actually vote FOR a party rather than AGAINST one to stop them winning.


Although 'winning' isn't really a thing where the Euro's are concerned, because you gain nothing by finishing first.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Common Sense
post Apr 11 2019, 05:00 PM
Post #16
BuzzJack Platinum Member
******
Group: Members
Posts: 13,032
Member No.: 53
Joined: 7-March 06
   No Gallery Pics
 


I certainly won't be voting as a protest against the will of the people not being carried out. I may stand outside our polling station with a BREXIT placard.

This post has been edited by Common Sense: Apr 11 2019, 05:01 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Brett-Butler
post Apr 11 2019, 05:20 PM
Post #17
Howdy, disco citizens.
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 11,052
Member No.: 10,455
Joined: 16-January 10
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Common Sense @ Apr 11 2019, 06:00 PM) *
I certainly won't be voting as a protest against the will of the people not being carried out. I may stand outside our polling station with a BREXIT placard.


I daresay many Remainers will thank you for your sacrifice. It will mean that their vote will count for more than it would if you were to vote yourself.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Brett-Butler
post Apr 11 2019, 05:23 PM
Post #18
Howdy, disco citizens.
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 11,052
Member No.: 10,455
Joined: 16-January 10
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(vidcapper @ Apr 11 2019, 03:06 PM) *
Although 'winning' isn't really a thing where the Euro's are concerned, because you gain nothing by finishing first.


I would disagree - even you mean that winning the most seats in the UK won't give a party in its own right a massive say in the EU Parliament on a Europe-wide basis, winning the most seats in the European Parliament elections in the UK would be a massive boost for the party that comes out 1st, both in PR terms and for supporters/activists in said party. Let's not forget that Ukip topping the polls in 2014 led to the promise of a referendum on the EU's membership, the effects of which we are still seeing.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
5 Silas Frøkner
post Apr 13 2019, 10:32 AM
Post #19
Queen of Soon
********
Group: Moderator
Posts: 65,970
Member No.: 3,474
Joined: 24-May 07
 


QUOTE(Rooney @ Apr 11 2019, 12:06 AM) *
These Euro elections are going to be bloody important, don't vote Labour unless they come out with a clear stance on what type of Brexit they want.

I second this. Seen nothing from them that suggests they either have a plan or if they did have a plan that it would be substantially different from the Tories.


I will be proxy voting for the SNP. Hoping they might come out with the third seat this time
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Rooney
post Apr 13 2019, 12:42 PM
Post #20
WINTER IS COMING
*******
Group: Global Mod
Posts: 41,247
Member No.: 88
Joined: 7-March 06
 


QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Apr 13 2019, 11:32 AM) *
I second this. Seen nothing from them that suggests they either have a plan or if they did have a plan that it would be substantially different from the Tories.
I will be proxy voting for the SNP. Hoping they might come out with the third seat this time


They still want Brexit, they just haven't told us what type of Brexit they want yet. I mean it took them two years to come up with a Custom's Union and they are will they/won't they with supporting a second referendum. I just think it's really important to not use the vote to default to Labour unless they are clear about what they want.

Personally I suspect there will be much more interest in these elections this time around. We only got a referendum in the first place because of UKIP, I think sending a strong message to
the government the better.

Oh and if anyone wants a laugh about the Brexit Party the below links will put a smile on your face, especially the first one.

http://thebrexitparty.eu/
https://thebrexitparty.com/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post


14 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:


 

Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 21st September 2019 - 05:47 PM