So benefits of most things being rolled over from 2020 is that I don't have to write a new intro spiel for this years running order thread! Here's what I wrote more or less at this time last year;
For Semi 2:
01. Czech Republic - Benny Cristo - Omaga
02. Estonia - Uku Suviste - The Lucky One
03. Moldova - Natalia Gordienko - Sugar
04. Austria - Vincent Bueno - Amen
05. Serbia - Hurricane - Loco Loco
06. Poland - Rafal - The Ride
07. Greece - Stefania - Last Dance
08. Iceland - Dadi og Gagnamagnid - 10 Years
09. San Marino - Senhit - Adrenalina
10. Portugal - The Black Mamba - Love Is On My Side
11. Switzerland - Gjon's Tears - Tout l'univers
12. Latvia - Samanta Tina - The Moon Is Rising
13. Georgia - Tornike Kipiani - You
14. Denmark - Fyr & Flamme - Ove os pa hinanden
15. Albania - Anxhela Peristeri - Karma
16. Bulgaria - Victoria - Growing Up Is Getting Old
17. Finland - Blind Channel - Dark Side
Am I right in deducing that there's only 2 female belters this year - Albania and Slovenia? (If Efendi and Destiny don't bring belters)
One in each semi? That could benefit both of them.
I guess you could argue for the inclusion of Latvia in the female belter category? Plus I could see Malta feasibly bringing a big soul belter if they want to play to Destiny's strengths.
True about Malta. I wouldn't see Latvia taking votes from Albania - votes from fans of big ballads.
I can see them opening the Semi with Serbia?
Apart from Austria and Estonia....it's a very pop heavy first half.
I suppose I meant upbeat numbers. What some would call bops.
I'm sure Lithuania will end the first half of semi 1, and Cyprus gets to close the 2nd half
1. Serbia
2. Poland
3. Austria
4. Greece
5. Estonia
6. Moldova
7. Czech Republic
8. San Marino
9. Iceland
-
10. Portugal
11. Latvia
12. Georgia
13. Albania
14. Switzerland
15. Denmark
16. Bulgaria
17. Finland
I think Czech Republic would make a great opener, but with Greece/Moldova/San Marino/Serbia all delivering big, up-tempo female entries, I feel like you've got to start with one to help spread them out? And between those four I think you need to save San Marino (and the Flo Rida gag) and Moldova (I'm imagining something BIG with loads of Kirkorov money pumped into the performance) until later, so it comes down to the other two and Greece were penned into open last year so I'm changing it up and gone with Serbia. Again, cos they were due to be in slot #2 last year, I'm letting Estonia off the hook and gone for something else that I don't think people overly care about. From there I try to alternate between either tempo and/or male/female acts.
For the second half, I don't think you want to end on too slow a note, nor something that is instantly dead on arrival, so we land on Finland. Denmark get quite lucky as I don't think you can bury them too early when we have slow numbers from Portugal/Georgia/Switzerland/Bulgaria that need breaking up, and the latter two as big favourites aren't going to be thrown on too early.
Semi 1
1. Ireland
(potentially Belarus)
2. North Macedonia
3. Australia
4. Sweden
5. Russia
6. Slovenia
7. Lithuania
-
8. Israel
9. Ukraine
10. Croatia
11. Belgium
12. Azerbaijan
13. Norway
14. Cyprus
15. Romania
16. Malta
I find this semi more of a struggle to pick an opener from, Macedonia/Sweden/Slovenia are too slow, Russia/Australia a bit too 'noisy'/out there and then Lithuania...too much of a favourite? So I give it to Ireland kinda by default, a solid track that has enough life to kick us off. Belarus will go 2nd with whatever they send if they happen to still compete, but if not you've got to sacrifice Macedonia or Slovenia, and I feel like Slovenia is more likely to be the "surprise jury fave" of the year.
The second half is easier to order, Norway has to go somewhere in the middle as he's the only male on vocal duties and I can not see a situation where Destiny doesn't close the show - it's a big fave, a great positive note to end on AND from what I can gather, the meaning of 'je me casse' is roughly 'OK, I'm out'.
I just created a Youtube playlist so that I can cycle through all the entries and tried to put them into a running order that I thought would work well:
Semi Final 1
01 Lithuania
02 Slovenia
03 Australia
04 North Macedonia
05 Ireland
06 Russia
07 Sweden
08 Azerbaijan
09 Romania
10 Israel
11 Cyprus
12 Norway
13 Ukraine
14 Croatia
15 Belgium
16 Malta
Semi Final 2
01 Czech Republic
02 Austria
03 San Marino
04 Poland
05 Moldova
06 Estonia
07 Greece
08 Iceland
09 Serbia
10 Georgia
11 Denmark
12 Albania
13 Portugal
14 Latvia
15 Switzerland
16 Finland
17 Bulgaria
For semi 1, Belarus can go 2nd if they end up competing.
01. Australia - Montaigne - Technicolour
02. North Macedonia - Vasil - Here I Stand
03. Ireland - Lesley Roy - Maps
04. Lithuania - The Roop - Discoteque
05. Slovenia - Ana Soklic - Amen
06. Russia - Manizha - Russian Woman
07. Sweden - Tusse - Voices
08. Cyprus - Elena Tsagrinou - El Diablo
09. Belgium - Hooverphonic - The Wrong Place
10. Israel - Eden Alene - Set Me Free
11. Romania - Roxen - Amnesia
12. Croatia - Albina - Tick Tock
13. Norway - Tix - Fallen Angel
14. Azerbaijan - Efendi - Mata Hari
15. Ukraine - Go_A - Shum
16. Malta - Destiny - Je me casse
Semi One in my headcannon
01 Lithuania: The Roop - Discotheque
02 Slovenia: Ana Soklic - Amen
03 Belarus: Galasy ZMesta - Some Shit Song
04 North Macedonia: Vasil - Here I Stand
05 Australia: Montaigne - Technicolour
06 Russia: Manizha - Russian Woman
07 Sweden: Tusse - Voices
08 Ireland: Lesley Roy - Maps
09 Ukraine: Go_A - Shum
10 Romania: Roxen - Amnesia
11 Israel: Eden Alene - Set Me Free
12 Azerbaijan: Efendi - Mata Hari
13 Norway: TIX - Fallen Angel
14 Cyprus: Elena - El Diablo
15 Malta: Destiny - Je Me Casse
16 Belgium: Hooverphonic - The Wrong Place
17 Croatia: Albina - Tick Tock
- Lithuania seem the most obvious song to get the party started/make a bold impression from the off with Slovenia given the sacrificial second place slot. If Belarus don't turn up in Rotterdam then Australia can be swapped around to put in between Slovenia and North Macedonia to break up the run of ballads. Throughout the rest of the run I've tried to break up the higher and lower tempos where possible.
- Norway has to go somewhere in that middle of the second half/after a break to give them set up time for the props. And Cyprus to follow them just for the symbolism of going from "fallen angel" to El Diablo.
- Croatia close the show with a similar high energy number with Belgium providing the cushioning between Croatia and Malta in song 15
And for Semi 2
01 Czech Republic: Benny Cristo - Omaga
02 Poland: Rafal - The Ride
03 Serbia: Hurricane - Loco Loco
04 Austria: Vincent Bueno - Amen
05 San Marino: Senhit - Adrenalina
06 Moldova: Natalia Gordienko - Sugar
07 Iceland: Dadi Freyr - 10 Years
08 Estonia: Uku Suviste - The Lucky Ones
09 Greece: Stefania - Last Dance
10 Portugal: The Black Mamba - Love Is On My Side
11 Latvia: Samanta Tina - The Moon Is Rising
12 Bulgaria: Victoria - Growing Up Is Getting Old
13 Albania: Anxhela - Karma
14 Georgia: Tornike Kipiani - You
15 Denmark: Fyr & Flamme - Ove os pa hinanden
16 Switzerland: Gjon's Tears - Tous l'univers
17 Finland: Blind Channel - Dark Side
- Main challenge here is how to spread out the pop bangers in the first half. I ended up with this version on the basis that there'd be a break after song 5 so there's time to get your breath back between San Marino and Moldova
- Czech Republic seem like a good opener for something high energy. I didn't think I could put both Amens in the death slot so Poland goes there for something that's poppy but not particularly high impact with Austria used to break up a run of bangers later on
- The second half was a lot easier to go with the contrasts. Finland makes the most sense as a closer with hopefully a big stage show with a lot of fireworks and Switzerland just before as the most hyped up entry for a strong contrast.
- If we're keeping the breaks in the same place as Semi 1 then the second one would go between Albania and Georgia which works well enough (for a pee break)
Running Orders have been released on the official Eurovision Instagram!
My first scattered thoughts are that this looks good for Finland and Bulgaria, not good for Russia, both of those in second are sacrificed, Denmark will be a less than stellar finish and will probably sink for that, intriguing openers on both fronts.
Georgia, Albania, Portugal, Bulgaria is going to be a drag.
I'd good that Ireland come after N Macedonia.
I really don't think Lithuania is certain to qualify, any more.
Semi One: I'm surprised they put Russia in 3rd? Also TIX being quite early on in the second half so there's a long run of female songs. Although Ukraine's entry is different enough to break that up. Slovenia seemed particularly doomed as that's a strong set of songs around them. Malta will be a good finish but 10-13 will drag a bit I think.
Semi Two: Didn't expect San Marino to be first, especially with the 'will they won't they?' with Flo Rida I thought they'd put them as late as possible! However again I think that will doom Estonia as everyone will need a song to recover from that Moldova and Iceland are placed well and Serbia will struggle even more. Bulgaria/Finland/Switzerland will all be fine and Denmark seems an odd one to finish? I feel like the contest will be winding down by the time they're on. Latvia whilst not a 'popular' one I think will stand out and grab people's attention so that whole section ahead of them will make them struggle imo.
They really did Ukraine dirty here sandwiching them between those bangers!
In my humble opinion the running orders seem kinda shit on first glance.
I think Lithunia could struggle to qualify now actually. It’s a song & performance that caters to casual viewers who like novelty but those (from my experience at least) tend to miss the first 2-4 songs because they’re not too invested and also might not remember it too well after 15 other songs have performed and I doubt the juries will be going crazy for it. I’d be surprised if they don’t qualify but it’s also not entirely unexpected.
I'd love Lithuania to NQ as it isn't one of my personal qualifiers from semi 1, but I feel like what you've just described could also sum up "That's How You Write a Song" quite well (minus the recognisable former winner), and that ended up winning the semi so won't get my hopes up for a Roop-less Saturday
Yeah I'd forgotten just how uncompetitive his semi was in 2018 with the highest semi 2 song in the final placing 7th, and even that was massively thanks to the jury.
Lithuania aren’t NQing
I don’t think this draw has particularly benefited anyone in terms of turning them from a non-qualifier to the opposite, perhaps Ukraine?
I think it’s certainly dampened the chances of Australia, Norway, Croatia, Czech Republic and Estonia from the borderline pack. Bulgaria are also in potential danger being the 4th in a string of slower paced songs and being followed by Finland, but not to the extent that they wouldn’t qualify, they just might struggle to make top 3 here as expected.
Not surprised personally about San Marino opening, I think lumping Flo Rida in the middle of the proceedings would make him look completely insignificant (). If he can’t close the show, then the only option is to have him open it.
I don't think anyone is a cert to qualify from S1 except Sweden and Malta.
Ok. I'll add Azerbaijan and Cyprus.
Cyprus are pretty likely, especially coming after North Macedonia and Ireland. I feel Azerbaijan will only qualify if they bring their usual exceptional staging, because Mata Hari as a song on its own merit is incredibly basic and throwaway, and in terms of quality, all the other pop girlies are currently eclipsing it...
The way they manipulate the running order, the more significant it gets. I mean there will always be SOMEONE performing second so why could they do a draw.. I miss the days when any song could have been performed anywhere in the contest.
Thank god Ireland arent performing second.
Well, Portugal/Bulgaria is going to be that snooze-fiasco.
The difference is that they are not the same song.
They've kinda made it difficult for Bulgaria. I wonder why.
I am getting concerned that San Marino, Moldova and Serbia will be fighting for the attention of the same voting demographic and only one of them will qualify - most likely San Marino.
Germany, Italy and France have all drawn into the second half of the final. The UK and Spain will be drawing theirs later this afternoon.
UK first half
Such a predictable trajectory.
what did you expect? UK performs in the 1st half every 3 years like clockwork since 2012! :')
2012 - 1st
2015 - 1st
2018 - 1st
2021 - 1st
Spain get first half as well.
First Half
Belgium
Cyprus
Israel
Malta
Russia
Spain
United Kingdom
Second Half
Azerbaijan
France
Germany
Italy
Lithuania
Norway
Sweden
The Netherlands (#23)
Ukraine
Would love Ukraine or Italy to be the closer
Hope Belgium is not #2, they'd be doomed.
I can see Belgium being used more as a spacer between two favourites rather than the death slot. Israel, UK and Cyprus probably the best bets for opening.
Ukraine would actually make a lot of sense as a closer as ideally you want something big and impactful but that's also got a uniqueness to it - Italy could also work as a closer in that way too but idk how likely they are to give them the closing slot for the second time in four years.
Put Malta second to get rid of the curse. 😎
Malta would be the best #2, I agree.
Albania and Serbia have drawn first half, Bulgaria and Moldova second half.
I’ve been floored by San Marino for about an hour
Portugal and Iceland draw first half.
San Marino are second half - show closer please!
EVERYONE DREW FIRST HALF EXCEPT FOR SENHIT?! I AM LIVING FOR THIS LMFAO
First Half
Albania
Belgium
Cyprus
Greece
Iceland
Israel
Malta
Portugal
Russia
Serbia
Spain
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Second Half
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Lithuania
Moldova
Norway
San Marino
Sweden
The Netherlands (#23)
Ukraine
They were quick to draw those! Now time to play Bjorkman *.*
I CAN'T STOP THINKING ABOUT NATALIA GORDIENKO GOING AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
So my version would be
01 United Kingdom
02 Portugal
03 Serbia
04 Russia
05 Albania
06 Israel
07 Switzerland
08 Cyprus
09 Spain
10 Iceland
11 Greece
12 Belgium
13 Malta
BREAK
14 Germany
15 Finland
16 Moldova
17 Sweden
18 Azerbaijan
19 Norway
20 Italy
21 Bulgaria
22 Lithuania
23 Netherlands
24 Ukraine
25 France
26 San Marino
That run from Sweden to San Marino would be ALL KILLER NO FILLER territory!
What I'd do:
01. Cyprus: 'El Diablo' by Elena Tsagrinou
02. Portugal: 'Love Is On My Side' by The Black Mamba
03. Greece: 'Last Dance' by Stefania
04. Albania: 'Karma' by Anxhela Peristeri
05. United Kingdom: 'Embers' by James Newman
06. Belgium: 'The Wrong Place' by Hooverphonic
07. Israel: 'Set Me Free' by Eden Alene
08. Switzerland: 'Tout l'Univers' by Gjon's Tears
09. Russia: 'Russian Woman' by Manizha
10. Iceland: '10 Years' by Dadi og Gagnamagnid
11. Serbia: 'Loco Loco' by Hurricane
12. Spain: 'Voy a quedarme' by Blas Canto
13. Malta: 'Je me casse' by Destiny
14. Finland: 'Dark Side' by Blind Channel
15. Germany: 'I Don't Feel Hate' by Jendrik
16. Sweden: 'Voices' by Tusse
17. Moldova: 'Sugar' by Natalia Gordienko
18. Norway: 'Fallen Angel' by TIX
19. Azerbaijan: 'Mata Hari' by Efendi
20. Ukraine: 'SHUM' by Go_A
21. Bulgaria: 'Growing Up Is Getting Old' by Victoria
22. Italy: 'Zitti e buoni' by Maneskin
23. The Netherlands: 'Birth Of A New Age' by Jeangu Macrooy
24. Lithuania: 'Discoteque' by The Roop
25. France: 'Voila' by Barbara Pravi
26. San Marino: 'Adrenalina' by Senhit (ft. Flo Rida)
Germany is twice there
Whipped up a super quick RUNNING ORDER PREDICTION
1 Israel: Eden Alene - Set Me Free
2 Spain: Blas Cantó - Voy a quedarme
3 Greece: Stefania - Last Dance
4 United Kingdom: James Newman - Embers
5 Cyprus: Eleni Tsagrinou - El Diablo
6 Portugal: The Black Mamba - Love Is On My Side
7 Serbia: Hurricane - Loco Loco
8 Russia: Manizha - Russian Woman
9 Switzerland: GJon's Tears - Tout l'univers
10 Albania: Anxhela Peristeri - Karma
11 Malta: Destiny - Je Me Casse
12 Belgium: Hooverphonic - The Wrong Place
13 Iceland: Daði og Gagnamagnið - 10 Years
14 Finland: Blind Channel - Blind Side
15 Bulgaria: Victoria - Growing Up Is Getting Old
16 Germany: Jendrik - I Don't Feel Hate
17 Ukraine: Go_A - Shum
18 Sweden: Tusse - Voices
19 Moldova: Natalia Gordienko - Sugar
20 France: Barbara Pravi - Voila
21 Lithuania: The Roop - Discoteque
22 Azerbaijan: Efendi - Mata Hari
23 The Netherlands: Jeangu Macrooy - Birth Of A New Age
24 Italy: Maneskin - Zitti e buoni
25 Norway: Tix - Fallen Angel
26 San Marino: Senhit (feat. Flo Rida) - Adrenalina
Yas Rob bury Bulgaria in your running order!
I mean, it can only look good preceding the HORROR of Jendrik if that were to be the case!
Alot of people seem to think they may bury Iceland so they don't win which would be a shame. I have no idea who is going to win at the moment so the order will be interesting. Shame Iceland, Malta, Cyprus and Switzerland are all first half really but obviously they still have a chance to win from the first half.
San Marino is indeed the closer!
We're going the 'get the audience warmed up for Flo Rida and Senhit' route.
Cyprus opening and San Marino closing confirmed! *.*
1. Cyprus
2. Albania
3. Israel
4. Belgium
5. Russia
6. Malta
7. Portugal
8. Serbia
9. United Kingdom
10. Greece
11. Switzerland
12. Iceland
13. Spain
14. Moldova
15. Germany
16. Finland
17. Bulgaria
18. Lithuania
19. Ukraine
20. France
21. Azerbaijan
22. Norway
23. The Netherlands
24. Italy
25. Sweden
26. San Marino
Albania done dirty being given the death slot two contests running.
Malta sixth seems quite bad for them.
The song called '10 Years' not getting slot 10, my OCD cannot cope.
Poor Malta
Ukraine going before France. f***
Great opener and closer.
Senhit is going to drown Sweden’s competent but boring jury vote winner and I’m here for it tbh
Malta been done dirty!
That running order feels like its angling for an Italian victory.
Bulgaria will get lost between Finland and Lithuania as well (unless there’s an ad break there) *.*
Italy AND San Marino is going to bury Sweden dead in the water.
That position is not the one for Malta, think it'll be about 4th or 5th now. 'El Diablo' is an amazing beginning and that run from Lithuania-Azerbaijan is going to KILL ME.
I'm SO EXCITED
Finland and Bulgaria benefiting from contrasting with each other again (I think), what a duo <3
Looking good for both my rock babes, not too close to each other but both spicing up the second halves.
Hurricane going to OBLITERATE the United Kingdom's damb squib offering right after *.*
I think Bulgaria are placed really well.
Oh wow they really just threw Malta out of the running like that
With maybe one exception Albania has always been put exclusively into 2nd/3rd/4th or penultimate slots ever since they started fixing the draw (2016? i can't quite recall). not at all sus
Whoever did the running order clearly
a) Wants Italy to win
b) Wants another all male top 10 in the televote
Poor Duncan Laurence has tested positive for covid so wont be appearing live saturday night, hopefully they have his performance recorded that can be used and of course I hope he recovers in full.
I think the fact that Albania persistently send a really niche sound as a small country without too many friends is all the more reason that the draw constantly screwing them over is so sad. Like, give the little guys at least a chance at a feelgood moment - they deserve it for taking so many risks with their entries. How many balkan countries need to pull out before they start trying to keep the ones they have left? I'm already casting an eye at Croatia after Albina failing.
They still don't want to anyone who can win perform among the first 5... that is ridiculously biased. They coul've very well put Switzerland #3 or #4 and they would've still been a contender.
I’m sad that El Diablo will be over with so early. They love opening the show with the pop girl bangers in recent years, don’t they?
I have said it before and say it now. It's not a good thing that the local broadcaster can decide which song performs when. I know they "just" want to make the show better but it's not a good look in the long run and people will start complaining not before long.
A draw would be much more fair, especially now when jury votes count that much and it's not only about people being drunk enough to vote at 11pm.
No one but hardcore fans know or care about the draw thing so I don’t think it will happen. Nor it should.
I saw some commentary on Twitter saying Malta was being "taught a lesson" with their placing. What's the drama there?
The winners from 2014, 15 and 17 all performed 10-11. I don’t necessarily think performing much earlier will massively hamper their chances ie Malta. Also, the producers apparently don’t have access to the semi results, so it’s not necessarily based on their chances of winning but more to do with have a good pace and moving or props etc.
But that's also "wrong" because one has to have a certain type of song to do well, either a classic big ballad or a banger. If it's in between, it'll always get the "death slots".
It's been way too long since we had a winner that was performed among the first 6. Sertab is the last I believe? It must be a conscious choice, at least during these last 5 years they could've have fixed it. With this approach, we have only 18 songs in the actual contest
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