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 OPINION POLLS 2018-2022, Strong and stable... |
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 31st May 2019, 12:38 AM
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#221
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,417 User: 12,929                
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I couldn't even begin to imagine how an election would look under that poll. Of course it does mean that the new PM won't even think about having one unless forced to by a VoNC, I've seen reports that suggest the Conservatives would get obliterated down to under 100 seats, which I'm very sceptical would ever happen but, not a good time to be a new Tory PM.
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31st May 2019, 05:12 AM
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#222
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 
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I suspect a lot of people will revert to their traditional allegiences by the time the next GE comes around.
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31st May 2019, 07:02 AM
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#223
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,818 User: 17,376
 
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you're assuming there wont be a GE in the next few months and that Brexit will be sorted one way or the other. With a NO Deal PM they may not have a choice - Parliament wont allow it, so that means either a referendum or a GE. Either way whatever the result half the country is going to be pissed off and vote against the Tory Party for what they've done. Boris Johnson is not the Messiah and Saviour if half the country still believes ending No Deal Brexit is the answer to all our current woes, such as mass closures of Doctors surgeries - the CBI has just said it will harm small businesses, which means we all get poorer and die sooner.
So, Corbyn, hard-brexit new Tory PM, and suddenly Jo Swinson looks fresh and trustworthy in comparison if she wins the Libdem election. |
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31st May 2019, 12:48 PM
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#224
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,485 User: 21,753
  
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Jo Swinson is the candidate to keep building the momentum. I have nothing against Ed Davey but I can see the Lib Dems having a greater risk of plateauing under his leadership!
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31st May 2019, 06:38 PM
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#225
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 Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,150 User: 5,138
 
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Yeh Swinson would be a much better leader amongst the general public.
Remember JC was 23% at the start of the last GE campaign so things change a lot and if Brexit is done before any election it'll change dramatically too. |
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1st June 2019, 03:14 PM
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#226
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,080 User: 3,474
  
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This bounce back is very much an English narrative which is particularly risky for Jo as she stands in a Scottish seat that she's already lost once before to the SNP.
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1st June 2019, 04:59 PM
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#227
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,818 User: 17,376
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Jun 1 2019, 04:14 PM)  This bounce back is very much an English narrative which is particularly risky for Jo as she stands in a Scottish seat that she's already lost once before to the SNP. Party leaders get a higher profile. Even after the Tory-LibDem era she still gained 1000 votes. That she lost was due in large part to Labour support collapsing after the banking crisis. The SNP quickly lost over 6000 votes in 2 years and despite Tories getting 3000 extra votes, Labour 1000, and Libdems losing 1000. I don't see Labour bouncing back, I don't see Tories bouncing back, so yes they could switch back to SNP - but Libdems were arguably much less popular in 2015 and 2017 and at their lowest point. Or "wiped out forever" as both Labour & Tory supporters predicted with glee at the time. Karma is a bitch.... Her area presumably then is in the lucky position of having 2 serious No Brexit candidates to choose from, which means they can entirely judge on other issues that are important to them, such as staying/remaining in the UK and it's not a case of just staying/remaining in the EU. |
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1st June 2019, 07:30 PM
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#228
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,080 User: 3,474
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The EU election vote in her constituency had her nearly 10% behind the SNP. And westminster polling has the SNP on track to win way back up into the 50s seat wise and that makes her seat vulnerable. They did nothing in the Locals here, the fightback is to a much lower level in Scotland as well. If you're a remainer there is really only one party worth backing in Scotland and it sure ain't the LibDems.
She's already high-profile. Being the LibDem leader won't change the profile she has in her constituency. Just because little englanders don't know who she is doesn't mean that on the good side of hadrians wall she's just as anonymous. |
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1st June 2019, 08:00 PM
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#229
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
 
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The latest Banter Era opinion poll:
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3rd June 2019, 08:53 PM
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#230
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
 
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The Electoral Calculus site is a sobering read today... !
QUOTE This month's poll-of-polls shows the Brexit party ahead of the Conservatives. This is because the three most recent polls (YouGov, Opinium and Delta Poll) all have the Brexit party ahead by between 3pc and 9pc. As our graph posted on 28 May shows (see "Euro elections analysis below"), there is a switch-over effect in seats won if the Brexit party overtakes the Conservatives. According to these polls, this has now happened so the Brexit party is predicted to win a substantial number of seats, with the Conservatives reduced to third equal place with the Liberal Democrats. On average, the Brexit party is slightly ahead of the Labour party and is predicted to be the largest party in parliament.
On these figures, a three-way Brexit/Conservative/DUP coalition would only have 313 seats, which is short of a majority. An alternative three-way coalition of Labour/SNP/Lib Dem would have 323 seats, so would need additional support from the five Welsh nationalists to make a wafer-thin majority of six seats. Some points of caution need to be made. The polls are quite volatile and do not show a consistent picture. They disagree on which party is in the lead: YouGov says the Lib Dems, Opinium says Brexit, and Delta Poll says Labour. And the Labour and Lib Dem vote shares vary quite widely between the pollsters. Small differences in voter support can translate into a large difference in seats. For example, a 1pc swing from the Brexit party to the Conservatives would move around 50 seats. So the uncertainty in the prediction is higher than usual. And these polls were taken just after the European elections. This may be a temporary effect and the old status quo may return before too long. Or this could be the new landscape. It is a truth that if either Leave voters or Remain voters could unite behind a single party, and the other group did not, then they could easily get a majority at Westminster. The Leavers are still split, but more of them are favouring the Brexit party than the Conservatives. The Remainers are even more split between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. If voters move to unite their forces, or the major parties change their policy stance, then there could be dramatic changes. |
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3rd June 2019, 09:19 PM
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#231
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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If it does indeed become apparent that the Labour/Conservative duopoly is under threat by the two being cut off by Brexit Party/Lib Dems on both sides thanks to that whole EU thing, then we could see Hades becoming glacial and the LabCon MPs suddenly becoming warmer to the idea of PR, as it could save their bottoms from losing their seats. Well, one can hope.
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16th June 2019, 03:19 PM
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#232
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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Latest YouGov- would be interesting to see this tested in a GE, but I think things will have changed quite a bit by 2022 IMO.
Westminster voting intention: BREX: 24% (-2) CON: 21% (+4) LAB: 21% (+2) LDEM: 19% (-3) via @YouGov Chgs. w/ 10 Jun |
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16th June 2019, 04:04 PM
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#233
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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We're still in the banter era then, I see.
Whether the Brexit Party are still in that position come the end of the year/likely General Election remains to be seen - it depends on what happens in regards to Brexit in the next few months - if it looks like there will be a managed exit, then they will collapse a la UKIP following the initiation of Article 50. If there's no progress, or there's another delay, or Brexit is cancelled (could still happen!), then they will continue to grow in support. I do think their support will fall in opinion polls over the next few months whilst parliament is in recess and Brexit doesn't feature as much on the agenda, but come September it could creep up again as the October deadline nears again. |
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4th July 2019, 05:00 AM
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#234
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-72...2008-crash.html
Corbyn takes Labour to ALL-TIME polling low: Just 18% would vote for the party in a general election as they slump to fourth place Labour dropped 2 points since last week behind Tories 24% and Brexit Party 23% Corbyn's ratings are so low they have dropped behind the Lib Dems on 20% Growing discontent on Brexit position and leader's stance on anti-Semitism ************ The polls are so ridiculously volatile at the moment, that I wonder why anyone bothers taking them... 
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4th July 2019, 06:12 AM
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#235
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,668 User: 3,272
 
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They are a bit all over the place, but the general trend suggests a four-way tie. Under FPTP, that males things very unpredictable.
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4th July 2019, 10:59 PM
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#236
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,553 User: 10,030
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jul 4 2019, 07:12 AM) They are a bit all over the place, but the general trend suggests a four-way tie. Under FPTP, that males things very unpredictable. I wouldn't necessarily say that. They've generally been about the same over the last month or so once you take into account margin of error, with a bit of movement between the parties here and there. SNP on 4% and Plaid on 1%. I'm hoping either a people's vote occurs at some point or Boris tries to push through a no deal as prime minister, only to be met with a vote of no confidence loss and a snap general election. Under the current percentages, we could feasibly have a Lib Dem/Green/SNP coalition government. Labour have quite a high number of remain voters still voting for them based on that survey. 20% of those who surveyed who voted remain in the EU referendum would vote labour, the second highest behind the Lib Dems with 29%. I feel that with the right marketing strategy in a general election and a continuation of Labour's lackluster and vague stance, the Greens and Lib Dems could eat into Labour's votes even more than they have already. I guess the biggest issue as well is that there are 16% of voters who don't know who they would vote for in the raw survey. That will likely have a big impact on a general election in the current political climate. |
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5th July 2019, 04:56 AM
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#237
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Envoirment @ Jul 4 2019, 11:59 PM) I'm hoping either a people's vote occurs at some point or Boris tries to push through a no deal as prime minister, only to be met with a vote of no confidence loss and a snap general election. Under the current percentages, we could feasibly have a Lib Dem/Green/SNP coalition government. How exactly? The Greens could only contribute 1 or 2 MP's, the SNP maybe 50, so no way could the LD's muster 270-ish from just 20% of the popular vote... 
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5th July 2019, 05:15 AM
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#238
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
 
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jul 5 2019, 05:56 AM) How exactly? The Greens could only contribute 1 or 2 MP's, the SNP maybe 50, so no way could the LD's muster 270-ish from just 20% of the popular vote... Actually, they could. Our voting system has always been bad, but it's particularly ridiculous in situations like these. A party really could get hundreds of seats off 20% of the vote. They could also get 0 off 20% of the vote. If there are four parties getting 15-20% of the vote, then someone could get a huge majority off just 30% of the vote. |
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5th July 2019, 05:46 AM
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#239
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Harve @ Jul 5 2019, 06:15 AM) Actually, they could. Our voting system has always been bad, but it's particularly ridiculous in situations like these. A party really could get hundreds of seats off 20% of the vote. They could also get 0 off 20% of the vote. If there are four parties getting 15-20% of the vote, then someone could get a huge majority off just 30% of the vote. But that also depends on the distribution of that national vote share - Con & Lab tend to have high shares in specific locations, and low votes in their opponents heartlands, whereas LD support tends to be more evenly spread. so they end up 'wasting' lots of votes in 2nd places. |
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5th July 2019, 07:26 AM
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#240
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,417 User: 12,929
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That is the ‘traditional’ way of thinking, sure, but with LDs and Brexit gaining support, who’s to say what are safe seats? Labour and Conservative tribalists will have you believe that to ensure they keep their holds but a balance upset by too many supporters from the other two COULD make seats go to very unexpected places.
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