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Posted by: Doctor Blind 14th December 2019, 03:18 PM

The date of the next General Election (not another one!) is currently set as Thursday 2 May 2024 but we all know that the Fixed-term Parliaments Act is likely to be repealed so don't expect that to be the ACTUAL date.

In the meantime, please continue to post and discuss the latest Opinion Polls here.

Posted by: vidsanta 14th December 2019, 03:25 PM

Did we? :

Posted by: Doctor Blind 14th December 2019, 03:28 PM

It was in the Conservative manifesto. Along with a commitment to bring in voter ID (to suppress anti-Tory voting I mean, to protect the 'integrity of our democracy').

Posted by: vidsanta 14th December 2019, 03:33 PM

Surely it would only suppress anti-tory voting if people were illegally living here/registered?

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th December 2019, 03:37 PM

Unless the Tories do away with the five-year term limit, I suspect the next election will indeed be May 2024 or, possibly June that year. They avoided an NHS crisis in this election; they won't want to risk the possibility of one happening in the middle of a winter 2024/5 campaign.

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th December 2019, 03:41 PM

Eh? What sort of person is least likely to have a passport or driving licence? How about people in places like inner London? People who can't afford to go abroad and don't see the need for a car. How many of those people vote Tory?

As we've said before, there is no evidence that the lack of insistence on voter ID is a problem. This is a typical populist trick that sounds reasonable but, in reality, is deliberately aimed at helping one party. You have accused Labour of wanting to lower the voting age because they expect to benefit rom it. Why don't you think the same about this?

Posted by: Holly and Izzy 14th December 2019, 03:41 PM

Voter ID systems, no matter their thoroughness, always manage to disenfranchise a number of voters and putting up hurdles for others to vote. Those affected are more likely to be poorer, left-wing voters based on standard political demographics.

All in all, being a massive hammer to squash the tiny pinhead of voter fraud.

~

Anyway, I am looking forward to the first batch of opinion polls. New reality, time to extrapolate. And I also expect May 2024, barring a constitutional crisis that also happens to involve a deadly split of the Conservative party (hey, one can dream). May is supposed to be traditional, they'll want tradition.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 14th December 2019, 03:44 PM

Northern Ireland has had voter ID for my entire enfranchised life (and a long time before that), so for me it's just part and parcel of the democratic process. Although if you're not used to being asked for proof of ID before and then asked to provide it, I can imagine it being annoying.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 14th December 2019, 03:45 PM

Since about 2 days ago, quite a lot of them, apparently.

Posted by: vidsanta 14th December 2019, 03:51 PM

*I* don't have a passport or driving licence...

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th December 2019, 03:54 PM

How many inner London sets did the Tories gain? I make it none.

Posted by: Santa Klaus 14th December 2019, 03:54 PM

Finally, you *admit* you vote Tory!

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th December 2019, 03:55 PM

You can't disprove a generalisation with a single counter-example.

Posted by: vidsanta 14th December 2019, 03:58 PM

non sequitur.

Posted by: vidsanta 14th December 2019, 03:59 PM

You are all assuming I voted Tory, whereas I actually chose to spoil my ballot paper.

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 14th December 2019, 04:24 PM

Am sure Boris will want to go the full term if possible and then hope for a second one too. A 10 year PM?

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 14th December 2019, 04:26 PM

ME! I don't have either any more. Used to have but both expired and didn't bother to renew them. I never go away anyway. I have a Citizencard for ID. Got that when I found I needed ID to sort my mum's estate and do Probate when she died. They accepted it. Not sure about getting my 60+ Oystercard soon as it says only passport and DL acceptable as proof of ID. You get that a lot in fact. Have to ring TFL.

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th December 2019, 04:29 PM

Eh? How does that address my point? I didn't say anything about how you voted.

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 14th December 2019, 04:30 PM

Really Vid? Yeah remember now you told me in a PM. Was quite surprised.

Posted by: vidsanta 14th December 2019, 04:35 PM

True, but I thought I should clear up any misconception.

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 14th December 2019, 04:59 PM

I hope you didn't write any obscenities on it Vid. Have read that there were a lot of anti Boris scribblings.....

Posted by: vidsanta 15th December 2019, 05:36 AM

Nah, I'm not Michael...

Posted by: vidsanta 15th December 2019, 08:17 AM

7 out of 11 eve-of-election polls were within 2% of the actual result...

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 15th December 2019, 08:41 AM

Yep the polling companies must be very pleased witn their predictions and methology this time.

Posted by: vidsanta 15th December 2019, 08:53 AM

Michael has been quiet on this issue since Thursday though, for some reason.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 15th December 2019, 09:28 AM

vid- can you please refrain from deliberately trolling or digging for a reaction ? It's incredibly annoying.

Anyway, yes the main polling companies all had a good election for the first time in years. Survation ended up once again as the most accurate pollster being just 0.4% out on the final Conservative lead.



As you can see, the Conservatives 'leave' coalition of 43.6% keeps them to preventing any other party from forming even a minority whatever % they hold.

Posted by: Michael Bubré 15th December 2019, 04:16 PM

Qriously with their single poll of each election went from the most favourable for Labour last time to the least favourable this time. And they were pretty close both times (having Labour in the lead last time was obviously a little off but not as off as most other pollsters who gave the Tories a large lead).

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 15th December 2019, 04:27 PM

We have spoken privately and there's no hard feelings between us at least so that's good. Time to move on.

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 15th December 2019, 05:27 PM

I nearly got refused for having an Irish ID card on Thursday - had to point it out to the polling station guy in the picture in front of him.

Posted by: Holly and Izzy 21st December 2019, 01:36 PM

Quoting mald's post from the other thread as I wanted to geek out about what future opinion polls will say for 2024 more than discuss Labour selection strategies because the bolded line inspired me to predict.

The polls that I think are appropriate to use are the opinion polls following 1983, 1987, 1992 and 2005. Similar margins in Parliament with (in 3/4 cases) comfortable majorities for the winners and the losing party (in 3/4 cases) had a new leader come in straight after the election with a strong need to reinvent itself after a couple of election losses on the trot.

In 1983, Foot held on until October, after which Labour saw a significant point uptick in their polling but they didn't get ahead of the Conservatives until 1984, were neck-and-neck through the next few years before being solidly behind in 1987. Kinnock was leading a harshly divided party, and in the circumstance that the Tories successfully manage to navigate the Brexit rapids without too much public backlash and the Labour leadership, left or centrist, is engaged with a hefty battle with the other side of this party, then I'd guess opinion polls will broadly follow the 1983-87 route and we'll be back at this position again in 2024. This is the bad route. If Labour take over a year to get ahead of the Conservatives in polls, it's not good.

1992-1997 is the wishful thinking one with huge majorities clear over the Tories before a year had passed on the election. We'd want a Brexit shock not unlike Black Wednesday and a truly inspiring Labour leader to be taking this route. I very much doubt it's forthcoming, even if for whatever reason there is another Labour leadership election halfway through this Parliament like in this one and a challenger not currently talked of emerges (though of course hopefully not from anyone's premature death). The one factor in common with this one is that the new Labour leader will be in place at a similar timescale to 1992, it only caused a moderate uptick and most of the big shock was after Black Wednesday. I am not hoping for Black Wednesday 2.0. It's unlikely to happen with the transition period but possibly 2021 if 2020 is grossly mismanaged. If Labour are ahead by the middle of 2020, possibly this but more likely...

1987-1992 can also be looked at but with Kinnock staying on, not as immediately helpful. However opinion polls at the election were similar to what we had now, and if Labour elect a decently inspiring leader and the Conservatives suffer a moderate amount of scandals, I'd say we're going in for a tossup election like 1992. If Labour manage to get level once the main events of Brexit unfold, could be on this route.
And 2005-2010, with parties reversed, is the most realistic hopeful scenario (for Labour). Cameron wasn't elected until December following the May in 2005, but much like 1987-1992, neck-and-neck until the more serious financial crash of 2008, at which point Conservatives took the lead. If a big economic hit for Brexit takes a few years to really become apparent, then possibly this way. Hung parliament or tossup could be a possibility. 6-12 months before Labour are consistently ahead, with a leader like Starmer I'd say one of these ways.

There'll almost certainly be an uptick when the new leader gets in place (if indeed any post-election polls come out before it happens), and how big an uptick depends on how fractured the election looks and the eventual result.

Posted by: mald487 21st December 2019, 02:04 PM

It's very difficult to say what will happen. Politics in the last 5 years has been anything but predictable .You also have to take into account the Tories gerrymandering with the boundaries(although as has been stated on here, that may even end up working against them).

If I had to guess I would say 2024 will probably bare similarities to 1992. Labour making some gains with somebody hopefully a bit more central than Corbyn but the Tories still being able to put together a respectable majority. I think it's near certain they will lose at least some seats next time around, but again, who can say for sure.

Posted by: December Dong 21st December 2019, 02:18 PM

It all depends on if the UK is still the UK by then.

Have faith. They might be turning this into a one party state, but we can still get the evil bast*rd tories out!

Posted by: vidsanta 21st December 2019, 02:31 PM

Then surely, by definition, it cannot be a 'one party state'...

Posted by: December Dong 21st December 2019, 02:35 PM

But it is. Even the BBTory attacks the opposition and protects the Tory. It is now just like Russia. We have a pretence of democracy

Posted by: vidsanta 21st December 2019, 02:42 PM

Nonsense - that would mean Labour in 1997 was also a one party state...

Posted by: December Dong 21st December 2019, 02:43 PM

Labour hadn't attacked every democratic institution and turned the media into a state cheerleading propaganda service. Sorry.

Posted by: vidsanta 21st December 2019, 02:46 PM

So in other words, your definition of a one party state is infinitely flexible so that you can turn it back on the Tories?

Posted by: December Dong 21st December 2019, 02:52 PM

No. The Tories are mirroring Russia. It is entirely different. Even the threat of ID made 38% switch to postal votes. What happens? They vote early. Who did that disadvantage? Labour, who are always on the backfoot thanks tooooo ... media brainwashing. Tories want to gerrymander, have the entire media in their pockets, have bbtory filled with Laura Kussenbergs et al, want ID, want to scupper the courts, placed adverts warning about the best politician we've had in a generation, Corbyn, outside polling stations, lied, evaded scrutiny, and even used taxpayer money on anti-Corbyn propaganda in a "hidden" propaganda centre in Scotland. Russia 2.0.

Posted by: Holly and Izzy 21st December 2019, 03:00 PM

as much as I do truly enjoy these witty and original ripostés that we regularly partake in...

might I suggest that for the sake of our sanity over the next 5 years we a) stop mandating that democratic results create some sort of hallowed opinion that mustn't be criticised and b) stop demonising our political opponents such that there is no hope of changing their minds to vote with us for the next time we are called upon

it's a new term, there will be a whole new set of circular arguments to enjoy, peppered of course with occasional remixes of relevant older ones

Posted by: December Dong 21st December 2019, 03:06 PM

I'm not blaming the people. I'm blamimg that evil political party, born from the desire to curtail the power of the people as the tories desperately wheeled around to avoid revolutuion and find a new avenue to protect the riches of the rich. That is how the party was born, made to stamp on the interests of the rest and promote and protect those of the rich. It has never changed.

Posted by: vidsanta 21st December 2019, 03:06 PM

Thank you.

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st December 2019, 03:19 PM

Do you have any evidence for these allegations about adverts outside polling stations or this hidden propaganda centre?

Posted by: December Dong 21st December 2019, 03:26 PM

There are loads of articles out there it:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/foreign-office-funds-2m-infowars-13707574.amp

The articles about the ads were on facebook. It'll take a while to find.

Posted by: vidsanta 21st December 2019, 03:36 PM

DELETED

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 21st December 2019, 04:44 PM

Would that be the same great leader that 15 Labour MP's paid thousands of pounds out of their own money to place ads in national newspapers on election day asking voters not to vote for him. Also hardly any candidates made any reference to him on leaflets. Why not if he was the best politician in a generation?

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 21st December 2019, 08:54 PM

Well said!

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 21st December 2019, 08:56 PM

I think the chances of Labour overtaking the tories in the opinion polls by next year is unrealistic if JC is there until March. They won't have long left to catch up.

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 21st December 2019, 09:00 PM

Agreed. With the euphoria in the country when Brexit is delivered and the subsequent feel-good factor Boris will get all the thanks in the opinion polls.

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 21st December 2019, 09:14 PM

Always remember the 'euphoria' is only by certain sections.

It's led to a load of other issues, Scotland will want its second referendum and the economic impacts will be interesting to see.

Posted by: Holly and Izzy 21st December 2019, 09:15 PM

New leaders of either party historically draw level almost as soon as they're elected, based on past evidence the amount of time between the election and new leadership doesn't matter as when it happens will be the turning point. However this time next year, if we're hoping for a good or passable result at 2024 and aren't going to be relying on significant outside events, we'd want Labour to be averaging at least a couple points clear.

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 21st December 2019, 09:16 PM

I personally think that's an unrealistic timetable but we shall have to see.

Posted by: mald487 21st December 2019, 10:44 PM

Euphoria is very much an over statement I think. Sure, people who voted leave will be happy, but..
a.) They were only a narrow majority
b.)Nearly as many people won't be happy
c.) ..and this is probably the biggest group of people ...people who ticked a box three years ago(either leave or remain) based upon their limited knowledge of the EU, don't really care THAT much and will just be relieved it's out of the headlines.

That being said, I will concede that with the Tories being seen as the ones carrying out the "will of the people", will probably keep them ahead of labour for the foreseeable future, at least until the economic impacts of Brexit actually kick in.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 21st December 2019, 11:01 PM

I don't think the polling for Labour next year is going to be any kind of indicator as to their performance at the next General Election, we all remember the period 2011-2014 when they were consistently polling ahead and look what happened in 2015. It's true that if they don't at least improve on 32% then it doesn't look good but I wouldn't expect much change to be honest.



Reason being, the 40% plus vote for the Conservatives as the de-facto 'Brexit' Party is solid and will hold for the foreseeable unless there are any Black Swan events.

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 22nd December 2019, 12:57 AM

Hopefully the earth falls in when Brexit gets done like evryone said and labour will sail through.

Posted by: vidsanta 22nd December 2019, 05:43 AM

Do you seriously *want* Brexit to fail, and the country to suffer, just to say 'I told you so'??

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 22nd December 2019, 10:09 AM

Do you just want Brexit to happen just to say I told you so? Do English MPs once again want to risk dragging everyone else into their version of Little England and threaten the union?

No but I think it will be worse for the country.

Posted by: vidsanta 22nd December 2019, 10:49 AM

I and a lot of other people still want it to happen, according to the GE result.

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 22nd December 2019, 10:53 AM

Indeed but then again more people voted for anti Brexit parties in the GE overall.

Posted by: vidsanta 22nd December 2019, 02:37 PM

But a Brexit-supporting party still won.

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 22nd December 2019, 02:50 PM

Well yes on a First Past the Post election which is unrepresentative of the whole electorate and it doesn't really confirm whether people actually wanted Brexit still. But I'm a supporter of making the referendum result count so we agree on that.

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 22nd December 2019, 04:13 PM

Good to hear that.

Posted by: December Dong 22nd December 2019, 04:18 PM

Why? What is there to respect?

Lies
Nazi propaganda photoshopped by Farage
More lies
Illegal campaigning
17 out of 64 million?
2 of 4 nations?
20% youth support?

And let's face it: take out the racism vote, add the under 18 vote, and what do you get? A remain victory, probably at 52-48.

Posted by: vidsanta 22nd December 2019, 04:21 PM

Your record is stuck again.

Posted by: December Dong 22nd December 2019, 04:28 PM

You can't counter me as you know I'm right. Also, it wasn't a binding vote and didn't get at least over 60%.

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 22nd December 2019, 04:29 PM

Can't you just accept that it's happening now soon Michael.

Posted by: December Dong 22nd December 2019, 04:31 PM

I'll move to Scotland and vote for independence if it does.

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 22nd December 2019, 04:33 PM

What do you mean if it does? It's happening, Jan. 31st. There's no chance of Scottish independence either as Boris won't grant a second referendum. They had one a few years ago.

Posted by: vidsanta 22nd December 2019, 04:39 PM

You realise that even if Boris allows them a vote, & the SNP wins it, it will still take quite a few years for the EU to accept them for membership, never mind the time it'll take to negotiate withdrawal terms from the UK...

Posted by: December Dong 22nd December 2019, 04:43 PM

It fulfills all membership requirements. It will be immediate acceptance, not least because the EU will know how it will look on the international stage.

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 22nd December 2019, 09:00 PM

It's not up to a tyrant in No10 to tell the people of Scotland what they can and cannot have a say over. (God I'm sounding like Nicola here)

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 22nd December 2019, 10:52 PM

Well he can refuse another referendum which he is doing and is right to do in my opinion as they had one in 2014. Maybe they want one every year??

Posted by: vidsanta 23rd December 2019, 07:14 AM

No it will not be immediate - there are processes that must be completed.



Legally, it is.

Posted by: Suedehead2 23rd December 2019, 08:12 AM

Approval wouldn’t be immediate, but Scotland would almost certainly have a faster path to joining than most countries.

Posted by: Crazy Chris-tmas 23rd December 2019, 08:14 AM

Shouldn't they have a second EU referendum first?

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 23rd December 2019, 09:19 AM

Let me guess your English and once again English MPs have dragged the rest of tHe uk to a place they don't want to go. That's why the Irish independence movement started because of a lack of democracy in the uk system.

ALOT has changed since 2014 has it not?

Posted by: vidsanta 23rd December 2019, 10:30 AM

I thought it was because of oppression of the Catholics?

Posted by: Suedehead2 23rd December 2019, 11:50 AM

I would assume the intention to apply for membership of the EU would be part of the revised plan for independence.

Posted by: ChristmaSteve201 24th December 2019, 12:39 PM

Not totally - Catholic Emancipation was passed in 1829!

Posted by: Iz~ 14th January 2020, 10:02 AM

Did you miss opinion polls? Seems like an unusually large amount of time since the general election to not have one, the Christmas break'll do that.

just you wait until Corbyn enters his final form. You see, in 2017...

Posted by: Oliver 14th January 2020, 12:37 PM

I wonder where that 6% has gone!

Posted by: Steve201 14th January 2020, 12:58 PM

Just the fact that Labour basically doesn't have a leader until the new one is elected.

Posted by: Harve 14th January 2020, 06:31 PM

PLOT TWIST

Posted by: Brett-Butler 14th January 2020, 07:12 PM

Don't think there'll be as much focus on Opinion Polls going forward than there has been in the past 3 years, largely because we're no longer in a position where a new General Election could be called at a shake of a lamb's tail.

The others in the most recent https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-january-2020/ - Green Party 5%, Brexit Party 4%, UKIP 2% (???)(I'm guessing that polling company still uses them as a prompt when polling), others 4%.

Posted by: Steve201 15th January 2020, 08:47 PM

UKIP at 2% perhaps due to the Brexit Party being the Tory party now?

Posted by: Envoirment 15th January 2020, 09:44 PM

I'm interested to see what the opinion polls are like come mid-later this year, as that'll be when Labour's new leader should be settled in. I assume there won't be another general election until 2024 though.

Posted by: vidcapper 20th January 2020, 06:11 AM

New poll today from Opinium, the most accurate poll for the GE result - Tories 17% ahead

https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Opinium-Political-Report-15th-January-2020-1.pdf

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th January 2020, 08:21 AM

That’s nothing unusual immediately after an election.

Posted by: vidcapper 20th January 2020, 08:38 AM

True, but the gap is seldom that wide - it'll be interesting to see what happens when Labour chooses their new leader.

Posted by: Auld Lang Peen 20th January 2020, 10:35 AM

Like, what else do you expect in a one party state? Democracy doesn't come here no more.

Posted by: vidcapper 20th January 2020, 12:13 PM

I suggest you look up the true meaning of 'one party state' before throwing it around randomly!

Posted by: Auld Lang Peen 20th January 2020, 02:17 PM

And the definition extends to corrupt countries like Russia and the UK that have a pretence of democracy x

Posted by: vidcapper 20th January 2020, 02:39 PM

I challenge you to name a mainstream website that says that!

Posted by: Auld Lang Peen 20th January 2020, 02:46 PM

So you don't believe that Russia is a one party state? A pretence at a multi party system is a fraud perpetrated against the people. Behind it, you find a one party state.

Posted by: vidcapper 20th January 2020, 02:51 PM

I don't know about Russia, but to claim Britain is, just a month after Britain had an election in which *many* parties took part, is just...

Posted by: Auld Lang Peen 20th January 2020, 07:17 PM

In an incredibly unfair system designed to return Tory majorities in which only other Tory-style parties can win is ... a one party state! The end. Change the electoral system or forever have a tory dictatorship. One party state.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 20th January 2020, 10:03 PM

We're in the honeymoon period where the promises are yet to be broken and the hurt and pain yet to be inflicted...

Time will tell.

Posted by: Steve201 20th January 2020, 11:31 PM

There is also no opposition!

Posted by: Harve 20th January 2020, 11:57 PM

I don't care about opinion polls for the next 18 months.

I mean, I will be full of glee if the Tories erase their lead but I see no reason why that will happen yet.

Posted by: vidcapper 21st January 2020, 06:08 AM

You realize that saying 'the end' doesn't mean you've won the argument?

Virtually all of us N&P posters agree on electoral reform, though.



That's not the the Tories fault though, but of an ineffective GE campaign by all the opposition parties (SNP excepted).

Posted by: Auld Lang Peen 26th January 2020, 05:29 PM

Ineffective vs a 100 million tory pre election campaign, one party state media, and against a system designed for Tory majorities. P.s, there were far more votes for other parties than the twatty Tories. Lol x

Posted by: Crazy Chris 31st January 2020, 10:05 AM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 49% (+4)
LAB: 29% (-4)
LDEM: 10% (-2)
GRN: 4% (+1)
BREX: 2% (-)

via @YouGov, 24 - 26 Jan
Chgs. w/ GE2019, GB result

Posted by: Forever European 31st January 2020, 04:01 PM

This country is finished. We live in a one party state with a sham democracy. One party state media, check, ridiculous democratic sustem designed to favour one party, check, constant attacks on the opposition, check. Gross.

Posted by: vidcapper 1st February 2020, 07:04 AM

I don't believe for a second you'd be making this claim if it was Labour who had an 80 seat majority.

Posted by: Steve201 1st February 2020, 12:35 PM

He's trolling lol, it's the post election Brexit day high, things will be all to play for from now on!

Posted by: Brett-Butler 19th March 2020, 02:15 PM

Interesting that Opinion Polling is still continuing after everything that's happened, but that's a side note. More than half of those responding now supportive on the Conservatives(!). Although I imagine at the moment things are quite volatile, and if you were to poll people tomorrow they could be 10 points down.

Posted by: I. :II: z 19th March 2020, 02:34 PM

I have to say that the government has, for the most part, been handling this far better than I would have expected them to, and will have a mostly very positive perception at the moment. Obviously there are no other options yet and the fallout is not yet known but that doesn't surprise me, I think they may go a few points higher yet before the new Labour leader is chosen.

Posted by: STREAMSTUPIDLOVE 19th March 2020, 05:03 PM

It's a one party state now and will be for the forseeable future, with a bought and paid hard right media. It's done.

Posted by: Suedehead2 19th March 2020, 06:25 PM

Their handling of the coronavirus started off OK but has been an utter shambles for the last week or two. They have performed a complete U-turn without admitting it, let alone giving a coherent explanation for it. There are still huge numbers of people on zero-hours contracts who have no idea whether they are going to be able to earn any money for the next couple months or so. Now they are trying to award thenmselves emergency powers that go beyond anything introduced in WWII. Johnson is out of his depth and needs to be replaced by an adult asap.

Posted by: Steve201 19th March 2020, 07:49 PM

^^ Agreed with SH the U Turn could well have cost lives!

Posted by: Queefantine 29th March 2020, 05:08 PM

Aand just a reminder: Bush polled at 90% after 9/ 11 and Macron, who was on his last legs politically and about to be forced from thr Eliysee by the Gilet Juanes, is now at 54%.

In the UK it is exascerbated by a fawning, pro-Tory, one party state media, and by the national culture of seeing criticism of leadership during a crisis as distasteful.

Posted by: Suedehead2 29th March 2020, 05:12 PM

The worst part of it is that the press coverage would have been very different if a Labour government had done exactly the same as Johnson's shower in exactly the same timescale. They would also somehow have found a way to blame Labour for the fact that the Tory government decided, in 2017, not to buy any more ventilators despite a report saying there were nowhere near enough to cope with a major epidemic.

Posted by: Quarantilas 30th March 2020, 06:33 AM

A Holyrood poll out yesterday put the Nationalists up very high on a thumping* majority with 70 of the 129 seats.

*thumping for a Parliamentary system explicitly designed to stop both majorities and the SNP from being in power.

Posted by: Steve201 7th May 2020, 09:24 PM

Anyone have any opinion poll following Starmers first month? No doubt a 1000% Tory lead as ever as 30000 deaths aren't enough for the public to become critical!!

Anyone watching the Election 2010 coverage tomorrow on BBC parliament?

Posted by: Klaus 7th May 2020, 09:25 PM

Last one I saw was 50% Conservative, 30% Labour, 7% Lib Dem, 5% Green

Posted by: blacksquare 7th May 2020, 09:31 PM

I imagine things might start shifting in his direction with more covers like this.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 7th May 2020, 09:36 PM

Whilst the dial hasn't moved much in terms of the main parties, the polling for Keir Starmer himself should give something for Labour to cheer about. His https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/keir-starmers-net-favourability-50-points-ahead-of-jeremy-corbyn/05/05/ after one month in the job is +18, which is much better than the -51 that Jeremy Corbyn finished off with (and whose net favourability rarely went above 0). It is worth pointing out that the same poll gave Boris Johnson's net approval rating of +20, so he's within touching distance of being the most popular politician by this scale.

Posted by: Andrew. 7th May 2020, 09:37 PM

I wonder when, or if the Conservatives will lose their lead. It's a tory government, it has to happen sometime, although the SNP haven't actually lost a Scottish poll since September 2014 It sounds cliched but I can't see Keir Starmer ever being Prime Minster. Hopefully Scotland won't have to worry about that by 2024 though x

Posted by: Rooney 7th May 2020, 09:41 PM

He just needs to start boosting his media coverage. He is a little dullard, but he’s really impressive as a politician. Even if he doesn’t get to be Prime Minister he will certainly help close the gap at the next general election. Labour have a really good shot if they handle the fallout of this well.

Posted by: Suedehead2 8th May 2020, 06:49 AM

Given a choice between competent but a little boring or charismatic but hopelessly incompetent, it shouldn’t really be a difficult choice.

Posted by: Rooney 8th May 2020, 12:18 PM

Agreed and certainly for me and you it would be an easy choice. But unfortunately the voters Starmer needs to win back are not me and you! Stuff like this newspaper headline is brilliant though, long way to go yet mind.

Posted by: Beef Curtains 8th May 2020, 12:22 PM

This is a one party state for all intents and ourposes. Do not expect miracles and expect 100- 200 years of hard tory rule.

Posted by: Steve201 8th May 2020, 03:42 PM

Wasn't the newspaper headline a hit back at the tories for their press releases about lifting lockdown which turned out to be wrong, seems a little strange for the Torygraph to jump on board so quickly❓

Posted by: Doctor Blind 26th May 2020, 07:02 PM

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (-2)
LAB: 33% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)

via @Survation
, 22 - 26 May
Chgs. w/ 28 Apr


Not much evidence of a cut through here but possibly this is the start of a trend ?

However.. quite a significant drop in approval of both Boris Johnson and the Conservatives:

Posted by: blacksquare 26th May 2020, 10:18 PM

Well, damn.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 26th May 2020, 10:26 PM

Ok, I spoke too soon - looks like this IS cutting through in a big way. Hard to see them keeping Cummings on if this continues...

As I said in the other thread, once the trust goes - hard to see it rebuilt. Given the collapse of the economy and the unexploded bomb of Brexit this could be a cataclysmic year for the Conservatives.

Posted by: Harve 26th May 2020, 10:34 PM

I really want PeaceMob to come back

Posted by: Envoirment 28th May 2020, 12:42 AM

Surprised at how quickly the Conservatives seem to be losing ground. Keir Starmer has generally done a good job though and a lot of relatives/friends of mine who weren't supporting labour due to "IMAGINE JEREMY CORBYN IN POWER" type reasons seem to be liking him somewhat. With the stigma of Corbyn gone and the current mess, I can see Labour support increasing a lot. We have yet to hit the real hard hitting parts though. Once the furlough scheme ends - how many people will actually be going back to a job? Then there's Brexit later this year.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 30th May 2020, 07:14 PM

It looks like a mixture of Cummings' undoing and Labour having a competent leader seems to be narrowing the gap. Labour will likely have a lead in opinion polls by the end of next month.

Posted by: Steve201 30th May 2020, 08:20 PM

Wonderful News!

I do think the UK has a generally progressive majority since the new century started, the tories have been in power since 2010 but they've only turkey had a majority since December!

Posted by: Suedehead2 30th May 2020, 08:52 PM

Going from winning a comfortable majority to a lead of just four points in less than six months is quite an achievement. To do so having convinced a lot of people that the PM nearly died makes it even more impressive.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 1st June 2020, 08:43 PM

An interesting different kind of opinion poll to the ones that usually get posted here. Every week, Populous asks what the biggest story the general public noticed in that week. Last week, 52% were aware of the Dominic Cummings story, demonstrating just how massively it cut through. The below shows %s for similar political controversies over the past few years to put that into context - I'm quite surprised that the Pig thing was so low, but I'm guessing it didn't get reported as much at the time owing to potential libel issues.

Posted by: Botchia 1st June 2020, 10:18 PM

Pig-gate deserves more recognition.

A truly iconic moment and feels more synonymous with Cameron than the Panama Papers scandal.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 6th June 2020, 08:45 AM

Latest Scottish Independence Referendum opinion poll (normal caveats, just 1 opinion poll, needs to be seen in the context of other polls to make sure it's not a rogue one etc -)

The cursed ratio strikes again.

Posted by: Harve 6th June 2020, 08:53 AM

When we rightly end the UK, I hope the process will be more conciliatory than with the leaders who implement Brexit but that the margin will also be a lot more decisive than that.

Posted by: Quarantilas 6th June 2020, 02:09 PM

Change is with the previous panel base poll that showed 50/50. The most beautiful thing about it is that it came out the same day as the Scottish Labour leader said there was no appetite for Scottish independence. *chefs kiss*

In case anyone was wondering why labour are done in Scotland, that’s a pretty good example

Posted by: Doctor Blind 6th June 2020, 06:06 PM

Latest Survation-

Labour closing in now.

Posted by: Andrew. 6th June 2020, 08:24 PM

Tbh, it says a lot about the Labour Party that they're still not ahead of the Tories given everything, I know they will be soon probably but it really should've happened already. My party can't relate.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 6th June 2020, 08:40 PM

I think it says a lot about how tribal people still are - since Boris Johnson has become leader of the Conservative Party and turned it into the Brexit Party they have generally been above 40% and are unlikely to fall below this until Brexit is finally resolved (!) but certainly Dominic Cummings knew what he was doing when pushed for a GE in 2019 and doesn't really care if he destroys the Conservative party in the process.

Posted by: Suedehead2 6th June 2020, 08:47 PM

Support for the government generally holds up well in a (non-economic) crisis. The fact that they are only just ahead a mere six months after a comfortable election win is a reflection of just how badly they have handled it.

Posted by: Envoirment 7th June 2020, 01:17 PM

Definitely. Governments usually enjoy a boost after winning the GE and, as you said, during a crisis. You only have to look at how quickly people's opinions changed of how the government have handled the crisis to see how badly they've done.

I think one thing that'll potentially really hurt them is when the furlough scheme ends and many jobs are lost. Esepcially with Brexit "happening" at the end of the year. If the government are stupid enough to push ahead with a no deal exit, that'll add to the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy.

Posted by: RabbitFurCoat 7th June 2020, 02:43 PM

I think Labour are doing about as well as can be hoped for at the moment. It's hard to see the combined vote of parties that support Brexit being less than 40% any time soon, I don't think the conservatives can go too much lower whilst whatever Farage is doing is pretty much non-existant.

Posted by: Steve201 7th June 2020, 07:41 PM

Why would they be ahead 6 months after losing a GE and the government have an 80 seat majority?? 🤔

Posted by: Brett-Butler 11th June 2020, 08:31 PM

More opinion polling, this time for the Welsh Parliament elections which are due next year. The most eye-opening thing about this poll is how surprisingly well the Brexit Party are doing in these polls compared to their national polling - given the way that Welsh PR works, they are likely to gain seats on those sort of %s. It might be a quirk of the parties mentioned in this polling question, as the Green Party don't seem to be there. No sign of the new party is Welsh politics, the Welsh National Party, which broke away from Plaid Cymru at the start of the year and currently have one AM and several local councilors. They were due to launch officially by now, but couldn't because of "the event".

Posted by: Steve201 12th June 2020, 05:59 PM

Who's this new party?

Posted by: Steve201 12th June 2020, 06:22 PM

Just as I thought there was controversy about the name:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_National_Party

Sounds like another PC only with a slightly more right agenda.

Posted by: Crazy Chris 13th June 2020, 05:39 PM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-2)
LAB: 39% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)

via @RedfieldWilton, 11 Jun
Chgs. w/ 03 Jun

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1271839921951703041?s=21

Latest poll basically neck and neck now!

Posted by: Crazy Chris 18th June 2020, 10:05 PM

Do you agree that Boris Johnson/Keir Starmer...

Is best to negotiate with the EU:
Johnson: 39% (% who agree)
Starmer: 31%

Is able to stand up for Britain's interest abroad:
Johnson: 40%
Starmer: 34%

via @OpiniumResearch

Do you agree that Boris Johnson/Keir Starmer...

Is able to get things done:
Johnson: 40% (% who agree)
Starmer: 32%

Is brave
Johnson: 37%
Starmer: 29%

via @OpiniumResearch

Do you agree that Boris Johnson/Keir Starmer...

Is trustworthy
Johnson: 29% (% who agree)
Starmer: 35%

Is competent
Johnson: 34%
Starmer: 43%

via @OpiniumResearch

Posted by: Steve201 20th June 2020, 11:33 AM

29% think Johnson is trustful? Were these questions asked in the local Tory clubs?

Posted by: Doctor Blind 20th June 2020, 11:36 AM

Posted by: Steve201 20th June 2020, 11:39 AM

Hahaha!!

Posted by: Brett-Butler 20th June 2020, 11:42 AM

Never underestimate the general public's general ignorance of politics. Unlike those of us who are up to date on the minutia of political goings-on, the vast majority only pick up on a tiny amount of the political discourse. I would say that the reason his trustworthiness rating has absolutely collapsed in recent weeks has been due to the Dominic Cummings saga, which is the one political scandal that really did cut through to the majority of the general public, even if it has falling down the news agenda due to one thing and another.

Posted by: Steve201 20th June 2020, 11:45 AM

I hate stupid people!

Posted by: Brett-Butler 27th June 2020, 10:54 AM

In other interesting polling news, a majority of people polled seem to favour PR -

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th June 2020, 10:59 AM

The 16% opposed is surprisingly low.

Posted by: Steve201 27th June 2020, 11:23 AM

Seeing the sleaked deals in Ireland down south I'm not sure!

Posted by: Brett-Butler 27th June 2020, 11:52 AM

I'd also be interested to know what the "Neithers" would prefer. Communism? High Kingships?

Posted by: Izzy 27th June 2020, 01:43 PM

My money's on weird centrist types still holding a candle for AV.

My fanfiction is a 22% support for anti-statists dividing the country into anarchist communes.

Posted by: Andrew. 27th June 2020, 02:04 PM

I wasn't expecting that at all. At least the Tories can't use that flawed AV referendum as evidence the public want FPTP ahead of all alternatives. When there was a vote on PR in the Commons last year I acc emailed my then-MP Ross Thomson (widely known here in Aberdeen for his slipping hands allegedly) hoping to at least get an answer to my points about why PR is needed but he just spewed the Tory line and didn't even respond to what I said.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 27th June 2020, 03:10 PM

When the PR debate happened (I don't think it was a vote, just a debate?), I'd emailed my then-MP Nigel Dodds asking him to take part in the debate. Surprisingly, he emailed back saying that he would attend subject to other parliamentary business, although in the end I don't think he turned up. There's no point me doing the same with my current MP if a future debate was to happen given that he refuses to take his seat.

As I've said before, PR is unlikely to happen through a parliamentary vote as it would be like turkeys voting for Christmas - if a party is able to rule having gained the majority of seats, then you're unlikely to vote for a system that would stop this from happening. I can only see it happening in Westminster if a coalition government comes into place where the minor party makes it a condition of coalition, or through a binding referendum. Although in the former case, I could see the minor party ultimately pull out of the coalition the moment the law changes in order to bring down the government to force a General Election on the understanding that the new system will bring them more seats very quickly, and I can only see the latter happening if a system was brought into place for referendums to happen within the Westminster system (perhaps something along the lines of a referendum being called if a petition signed by 10% of the electorate demands one).

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th June 2020, 03:53 PM

The Tories remain overwhelmingly hostile to PR and there is little prospect of that changing any time soon. Labour, OTOH, are more sympathetic. There are still plenty of die-hard supporters of FPTP while others are more pragmatic. It was, after all, a Labour government that introduced PR for the Scottish parliament, Welsh assembly and London assembly.

As things stand, the chances of majority Labour government at the next election are slim although that may, of course, change over the next four years. They could, though, be the largest party without a majority. It then becomes a matter of whether the Lib Dems are in a position to insist on PR as a condition for a coalition. I'm assuming that there has been no Scottish independence referendum and that the SNP's number one priority would be that they get that referendum.

Of course, if Scotland look like leaving the UK in this decade, Labour support for PR may increase as their chances of winning sufficient seats in England and Wales to form a majority any time soon are bleak. Of course, that all assumes that the electorate don't finally cotton on to just how dreadful today's Tory party is.

Posted by: Izzy 27th June 2020, 04:13 PM

I'd say that yes, Labour are more likely to want to support PR whether through seeing that it'll benefit them relative to the Tories, using it to get supporters of minor parties on side or just as the 'fairer side'.

But even with it changed it won't suddenly be the saviour UK progressives are hoping for, just as likely to have Conservatives and Farage remnants teaming up, and in fact a solid run of right coalitions is quite likely, particularly in the case of Scottish independence.

If you want to dislodge the Tory stranglehold over England, you're going to have to do a lot more than changing the voting systems, you need to change the culture of patriotic socially conservative individualism as well. While that's there, as bad as the Tories get, too many people will still break for them over anyone else.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 27th June 2020, 05:17 PM

"Would it not be be simpler, if the government simply dissolved the people, and elected another?”

Going slightly off-topic here, but I would dispute the idea that social conservatism is individualistic, I would argue that it is very much the opposite, in terms of its support for institutions, social groups, etc.

Also, as I've mentioned before, in each election the biggest group of voters up for grabs in each election cycle are the "communitarian" voters, those who are to the left of economics & welfare, and, for lack of a better term, culturally conservative, who are put off by Labour on cultural grounds, and the Tories on economic & welfare grounds (although the Tories have massively shifted culturally to the left as well) . Appealing to these groups, who are not going to go away, is the key to winning a majority, and it is much easier for the Tories to move left on economics, and nigh on impossible for Labour to move even a squeak to the right on cultural issues.

Posted by: Harve 27th June 2020, 05:23 PM

We've seen how, over the last six years, they've twisted the results of the last two referendums so you know they will.

I think the problem with PR first and foremost is public salience, which is actually needed before building and sustaining support.

Posted by: Izzy 27th June 2020, 06:10 PM

I'd go for the line that social conservatism makes use of the individualism promoted strongly by liberalism and ties it into a network of small social groups that it is acceptable to support, but without a support for the wider society particularly if parts of that society don't meet a bar of values held dear to the individual. And English people are pretty bad at viewing the wider society in a healthy way.

I do see the idea of culturally conservative/left economic people being key voters often and... See I think that the cohort of these communitarians is changing slowly in a one key way that will upset the balance. They're getting less patriotic, which will give Labour some breathing room on the cultural axis. And if their socioeconomic circumstances continue to get worse that should bring the Tories to a natural limit on the left economic push. I also think this group is smaller than often touted, and will continue to get smaller as society gets more progressive.

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th June 2020, 06:37 PM

It used to be assumed that a party that presided over the break-up of the UK would suffer serious electoral damage, possibly lasting many years. It now looks as if the so-called Conservative & Unionist Party could, in the short-term at least, survive an event that completely contradicts their name and, by extension, their raison d'etre. OTOH, a successful English-speaking progressive country immediately to our north could eventually convince the English that such a thing is possible. Far more English people will have friends and family in Scotland than have contacts in mainland Europe and the historic links and common language mean it would be hard completely to ignore events there.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 27th June 2020, 07:02 PM

In other opinion polling news -

I can't think of anything notable that Starmer's done in the past week to see his approval rating soar so much, but Labour should be pleased with that. I can't think of the last time that a Labour leader polled better than the Tory leader. Probably 2013/14 with Ed Miliband/David Cameron.

Posted by: Steve201 27th June 2020, 09:34 PM

Remember PR was out in place in the devolved assemblies to prevent a dominant government. Didn't work too well in Scotland though.

Posted by: Suedehead2 27th June 2020, 09:39 PM

Yes, that was one of the reasons behind it. They wanted to avoid accusations of creating a permanent Labour fiefdom in Scotland. That worked well.

Posted by: Andrew. 27th June 2020, 09:42 PM

And it was also designed to prevent any form of independence referendum

Posted by: Doctor Blind 28th June 2020, 07:47 AM

The answer is June 2019, which feels like a lifetime ago I know: https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-19th-june-2019/

Corbyn: 18%
May: 17%

I guess Starmer hasn't had as much mud thrown at him yet by the media, but it is a matter of time, unless he turns out to be a yes man like Jenrick who poses no threat to property billionaires whatsoever.

Posted by: blacksquare 28th June 2020, 01:58 PM

I'm still convinced that Sunak will be the one leading the party into the next election in 2025.

It just doesn't make sense post-Brexit for the Tories, especially with all this COVID Johnson baggage, to take that risk.

Posted by: Envoirment 28th June 2020, 07:05 PM

PMQs perhaps? Starmer has been doing quite well with those. Hopefully he'll continue to extend his lead over Johnson. Things will be interesting come later this year. Furlough scheme ending, possible second wave and Brexit.

Posted by: Steve201 28th June 2020, 10:13 PM

That's a good point Sunak could be this eras Stanley Baldwin.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 29th June 2020, 09:44 PM

I think that Sunak is a seriously impressive and smart politican (though it may be the incompetence of Johnson that flatters this opinion), unfortunately he demeaned himself somewhat by falling in line to defend the indefensible and selfish actions of Dominic Cummings, but if you ignore those transgressions he has certainly won a lot of support with his successful interventions as Chancellor particularly since Covid-19.

I definitely think that Boris Johnson will have either resigned through boredom or been forced out long before 2024 and Sunak is the most likely candidate to replace him, yes.

Posted by: Crazy Chris 18th July 2020, 08:38 AM

Wasn't sure where to put this.

From The New Eouropean.

"Boris Johnson would lose an election held today. Despite holding a steady four-point lead in recent polls, the Conservatives would lose most of their majority won in December, around 70 seats. They would remain the largest party in parliament, but with too few MPs to stay in office. And just as their huge gains in Labour’s traditional “Red Wall” seats delivered Boris Johnson’s big majority last December, it is a seven per cent swing to Labour in these seats – almost double the national average – that would force the Tories into opposition. Keir Starmer would probably become prime minister, albeit at the head of a minority or coalition government. The main figures are shown in the chart below.

No, I have not commissioned a special poll, peered into a crystal ball or consulted Mystic Meg; and yes, you are right, none of the recent poll stories in the media point to that result. However, the data are in the public domain. They can be crunched by anyone with a little time and an appetite for playing with Excel.

The data come from Opinium’s polls for the Observer. Each week they question 2,000 people throughout Britain. As well as providing figures for the main subgroups, such as age, gender, region and past vote, they give results for different kinds of constituency. The key group comprises the 54 seats in England and Wales that the Tories gained from Labour. Anyone can look at these any week.

However, only 200 or so respondents each week live in one of these seats. The margin of error is enormous. Nobody should pay much attention to a single week’s figures from such a small sub-group – and, as far as I know, nobody does.

How, then, do I conclude that Johnson is in so much trouble? Here’s how.

First, party loyalties have been unusually stable for the past month. The last four Opinium surveys have reported overall Conservative leads of five, four, four and four points. This makes it possible to combine the data from all four polls to produce an overall sample of 8,000. This reduces the margin of error in subgroups of individual surveys.

Second, Opinium asks people not only how they would vote today but how they voted last December. In the seats gained by the Tories, respondents across Opinium’s four latest surveys recall voting: Conservative 48%, Labour 38%. This is close to the actual total vote from the 54 seats: Conservative 47%, Labour 39%.

Third, by comparing how people voted last December with how the same people would vote today, we can measure the swing in each group of seats. This shows that over the four weeks, respondents in the Red Wall seats are substantially more likely to say they have returned to Labour than respondents elsewhere."

Posted by: Steve201 19th July 2020, 06:29 PM

I see the SNP are now equal to the Greens and Liberals in the UK national poll on 6% 😅

They will be the new 'enemy within' for the establishment in the next 10 years to stop independence no doubt.

Posted by: Quarantilas 19th July 2020, 07:37 PM

I’m suspect of the Scottish subsample on that tho as were like 8% of the population and as much as I firmly back them we ain’t getting 75% of the vote

Posted by: Doctor Blind 20th July 2020, 06:15 PM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 36% (-2)
LDEM: 6% (-)
GRN: 6% (+2)

via @OpiniumResearch
, 15 - 17 Jul
Chgs. w/ 10 Jul


"Any other leader [of the Labour Party] would be 20 points ahead in the polls against this shambolic government." (The Observer - 2017-2019)

Posted by: Steve201 20th July 2020, 06:47 PM

Haha indeed the usual suspects have different excuses now they have an establishment man in the oppositions office.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 20th July 2020, 06:51 PM

Yes, funny that. Almost as if they were being disingenuous when they said it..!! Surely not.

Posted by: Steve201 20th July 2020, 06:53 PM

I like Starmer but he's not a radical by any length.

The thing with political parties when choosing a new leader is that they always highlight the previous leaders worst issues and change that to the extreme.

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th July 2020, 07:01 PM

There's no point in Labour launching any radical new policies in the middle of a pandemic and with four years until the next election. Indeed, there are no elections of any sort (not even local byelections) until next May.

Posted by: Rooney 21st July 2020, 08:58 PM

But doesn't this just highlight the problem that Labour cannot really be unified? I don't think the hardcore Corbynite left will truly get behind anyone that isn't one of their own, and none of their own have the ability to pull the rest of the party with them.

Just even having a shot at the next election in 2024 will be a tough task.

Posted by: Iz~ 22nd July 2020, 05:30 AM

I think the 20 points joke just shows how inaccurate that statement was, you can't trust a paper of capital when it makes ridiculous claims about a left candidate like that.

Like with Biden in the States (and Starmer's far better a leader than Biden), my hope is that the left-wing will get concessions made in the form of policies as and when Starmer's Labour can sell them, doing so just as much because they can implement them as to keep the left happy. Starmer's Labour would be so much better at putting together a just society than the Conservatives, I'm going to be criticising Starmer over the next few years when he deserves it, but I hope to be largely supportive and not be relentlessly banging on over details.

Does of course rankle a lot that he's not ahead with the pandemic, and the Conservatives facing a Brexit disaster and Russian ties, but there's also so much of that it's hard to place himself as an alternative yet.

I suspect if the Lib Dems elect Layla Moran then they might be able to pull some numbers from Labour with social policies, which as it stands is probably my main worry for 2024 returning a Conservative government over anything else.

Posted by: Steve201 25th July 2020, 11:26 PM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-2)
LAB: 38% (+2)
LDEM: 6% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 23 - 24 Jul
Chgs. w/ 17 Jul

Posted by: Iz~ 30th July 2020, 07:05 AM

Not the UK but I figured this poll was interesting (and positive, given the general political leaning of the people here) ahead of the New Zealand elections in September

Ardern is going to landslide it.

Posted by: Quarantilas 30th July 2020, 05:15 PM

Holy shit Ardern. Clear as day evidence that good quality empathetic leadership is a vote winner

Posted by: blacksquare 31st July 2020, 10:39 AM

Impressive!

For an apparent Blairirte, Labour's 2020 focus on public spending and progressive social issues is more Corbyn. It'll be interesting to see what they can pull off with a majority.

Posted by: Envoirment 23rd August 2020, 11:00 PM

Posted by: Iz~ 30th August 2020, 03:49 AM

Finally not a Conservative lead - though on data they are EVER so slightly ahead (416-410 on the data numbers), but headline will be the tie. First time since last year. Shouldn't have taken this long but at least that's a threshold crossed.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st August 2020, 09:38 AM

Still not a lead for Labour however... the numbers behind the numbers are the interesting thing here. There was a Survation poll last month that showed Labour leading Conservatives in EVERY age group under 65, but with a massive 46 pt lead in the >65s. Basically the polarisation between the generations is increasing every year.

This is not normal (see below).

Labour's % of the vote amongst 18-24 year olds, 1992-2019 (via Ipsos MORI):

1992 ~ 38%
1997 ~ 49%
2001 ~ 41%
2005 ~ 38%
2010 ~ 31%
2015 ~ 43%
2017 ~ 62%
2019 ~ 62%

Posted by: Quarantilas 1st September 2020, 10:26 AM

Can see it on a lot of polls at the moment. Brexit, Indy and in SNP vs Tory support in Scotland. There is a growing young vs old divide that seems to be more pronounced than the typical social category and education markers

Posted by: Steve201 12th September 2020, 07:38 PM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (+2)
LAB: 39% (-1)

via @OpiniumResearch
Chgs. w/ 28 Aug

If this was Corbyn.....

Posted by: mald487 19th September 2020, 11:07 AM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-2)
LAB: 40% (+3)
LDEM: 6% (-)

via YouGov

Posted by: mald487 24th September 2020, 12:40 PM

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 40% (+1)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)

via Redfield & Wilton, 22 - 23 Sep

Posted by: Doctor Blind 26th September 2020, 10:45 AM

Rumours that in a poll out tonight Labour have taken the lead over the Conservatives for the first time since June 2019.

Posted by: Bré 26th September 2020, 03:46 PM

A pity that it's still 4 years until the next election then. But it's been good to see Labour able to bring themselves back to being competitive in the polls so quickly. I'm optimistic for 2024.

Posted by: Crazy Chris 26th September 2020, 04:14 PM

The Tories will probably have a younger dynamic leader by then though and be reaping the rewards of a successful Brexit with Covid just a distant memory. Write them off at your peril.

Posted by: Rooney 26th September 2020, 04:22 PM

I mean you say that, but who knows really. If Brexit is the likely disaster it is, it will affect the poorest. I know the Tories had a massive majority last time, but the election in 2024 will be like no others with the backdrop of Covid and Brexit. We're still talking about the implications of the financial crash in 2008, so I really can't see Covid being a distant memory. Anyone who suggests this is living in cuckoo land. Rishi is the obvious choice clearly, but if the economic outlook is as bad as the forecasts its not going to be a great PR move - see Labour with Brown.

Plus at the next election I could see far more tactical voting between Labour, SNP, Greens & Lib Dems seeing as we don't have Corbyn in charge hell bent on forcing a large Conversative majority on us all.

Posted by: Quarantilas 26th September 2020, 04:27 PM

Tactical voting in Scotland plays out along nationalist/unionist lines rather than anti-Tory lines. See the many councils where the Tories are propped up by labour or libdems where the SNP are the biggest party.

Im currently working on the basis that Scotland won’t be voting in 2024 for Westminster’s election

Posted by: Envoirment 26th September 2020, 05:38 PM

Covid will be well remembered I'm sure. We're still going to be dealing with it going into 2021 and potentially 2022 as well. There'll likely be many reminders about what a mess the government made of the situation when the election campaign begins.

And a successful brexit? I hardly believe that given the prospect of a no deal is very high and the amount of money the government has wasted on it so far. It's going to be a mess as well, I'm sure.

We're still yet to feel most of the negative economic effects from COVID as well. There will be many hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs over the coming 6-12 months unforutnately.

Posted by: Calum 26th September 2020, 05:39 PM

'Brexit' and 'successful' in the same sentence. The delusion is real.

Posted by: blacksquare 26th September 2020, 07:15 PM

Posted by: Klaus 26th September 2020, 07:23 PM

Posted by: Quarantilas 26th September 2020, 08:45 PM

And the rest of that poll. 6% for the SNP is wild. Scotland is only 8.4% of the electorate. Assume the Scottish subsample is small as usual which will impact that but that’s up from the 4% we usually get (50% of the electorate)

Posted by: Steve201 26th September 2020, 09:51 PM

So the SNP would be on 55-57 out of 59 seats if the GE occurred now then?

INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM ASAP SNP PLEASE

Posted by: Quarantilas 26th September 2020, 09:56 PM

From memory, it’s Ian bloody Murray and 58 SNP MPs. Think we could poll 8% and Ian Murray would still cling on

Posted by: Brett-Butler 26th September 2020, 10:30 PM

The Labour poll could be a rogue one so will need to see if it is in line with any future polls, although Labour have been trending upwards for the last few months.

Whilst it's a fools errand to speculate at this stage, I do think that there will be a General Election sooner than the 2024 mandated in the Fixed Term Parliament Act - I do think there will be some fissures in the Tories between now and then that could cause them to lose their majority and take things back to the general public, there have been a few rumblings in the party the past few months.

Posted by: Bré 26th September 2020, 11:34 PM

It'll take more than just 'some fissures' for them to lose the giant majority they have currently though. I just can't see it happening.

SNP polling ahead of the Lib Dems is... quite something!

Posted by: Iz~ 27th September 2020, 08:41 AM

I'd analyse that as: Single issue governments like the Conservative one that have made supporting them an identity above nearly all else will cause a tendency towards polarisation, Labour's just managed to chip away enough people wanting sensibility and currently, there's only two games in town in England. But highest for Labour since 2018, which is good, and I'd guess that they'll hold steady. Lib Dems' route back will be difficult, they're trying to pivot away from being a Remain party and more a small goverment liberal party if things like their UBI announcement are any indication. Potentially a wedge route that could get voters from both sides, which is why they're doing it, but I can't see it getting them above 10% at least in the next 12 months.

my guess at predicting is that we'll next see a shift in the polls in January though, a failed Brexit seeing Conservative support ebb to a mix of Labour and Brexit Party (or whatever else Farage is planning to whip up support when the 'true Brexit' doesn't come through) but not drastically, at least initially, they'll go down to about 30% at the least.

Conservative government split, very unlikely but the new intake of Brexiteer MPs are ideologically-driven and could well go loose cannon enough to try and get some concessions.

Posted by: RabbitFurCoat 27th September 2020, 09:01 AM

This dogshit, potentially?



I said in here months ago that there is currently quite a high 'floor' for the tories until Brexit happens, I do think there needs to be another part of the right to take 2-3% away from them, but whatever that party ends up looking like I'd find utterly appalling.

Posted by: Botchia 27th September 2020, 09:26 AM

Boris will probably be replaced by Rishi very soon into 2021 - it feels like that’s always been the plan and if Labour take a regular lead in polls, that will speed things up!

Posted by: Steve201 27th September 2020, 01:17 PM

Brexit really is just the Thatcherite right trying to undo the social and cultural gains of the post war era since they won the economic battles in the late 20th cebtury

Posted by: Andrew. 27th September 2020, 01:48 PM

I'm not surprised at the abysmal polls for the Lib Dems, they made themselves into a single issue party and now their position on that issue has pretty much zero chance of happening. Nice to see Labour in front (compared to the alternative) but I can't see the Tories going much below 40% with their Brexit base. A Lawrence F*** off party might be useful actually if he could take some votes off the Tories

Posted by: blacksquare 27th September 2020, 02:01 PM

We have seen how the Tories are able to convince people that it's an entirely new government with each cabinet and leadership change — and it'll happen again with Rishi Sunak. It doesn't really matter who they're turning off now when they'll likely be seen as sensible again with him at the helm.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 27th September 2020, 05:44 PM

Agreed. As has been the case since about 2017, which is why it is completely infuriating to have had 2017-2019 with the centrists whinging incessantly "but Labour should be 20 points ahead in the polls", now replaced with "Starmer is an UTTER GENIUS for getting the parties back to level pegging, masterful" with no sense of irony whatsoever.

Seriously these people lack so much self awareness.

Posted by: Steve201 27th September 2020, 05:57 PM

They don’t even care though DB they just wanted to ‘defeat’ what they believe is the evil or Corbyn - they actually have more in common with the Tory party than they do with the SCG in their own party.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 27th September 2020, 06:08 PM

Yes, two parties with basically the same agenda guaranteed to form a majority so that no matter how we vote, fundamentally nothing ever changes.

Don't get me started on Change UK !! Those UTTER MELTS that voted AGAINST a customs union in April 2019.

Posted by: Steve201 27th September 2020, 10:08 PM

Except when the right of the Tory party changes the agenda and decides to push to leave the Eu!

Posted by: Doctor Blind 27th September 2020, 10:13 PM

Bounced into it by Farage though... for a man who has contested in 7 failed attempts to get into Parliament he has effectively changed the history of this country more than any other elected official in over 40 years.

Anyway for balance - here's another poll:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-2)
LAB: 38% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)

via @DeltapollUK 24 - 25 Sep Chgs. w/ 10 Jul

Looks like the Lib Dems could be overtaken by the Greens as well as the SNP soon!

Posted by: Steve201 27th September 2020, 10:27 PM

That’s how British politics works though which shows you can campaign from the outside and effect change helped by the right wing media.

Posted by: mald487 7th October 2020, 02:01 PM

Seat projection based on September poll average:

CON - 308
LAB - 255
LIB - 6
SNP -58

Still 4 years away but it says something when a party with an 80 strong majority can lose that much support in less than a year.

Posted by: Envoirment 7th October 2020, 07:15 PM

That's their majority wiped out completely. It'll be interesting to see how things go once Brexit is finally off the table (if there's a deal), the impact of Covid is fully felt and "balancing of the books" begins. I wouldn't be surprised by a Labour majority in the polls by this time next year.

Posted by: Suedehead2 7th October 2020, 08:58 PM

I don't think the Tories will do much about balancing the books before the next election. In the short term, they will use the excuse that the debt is serviceable with low interest rates and that they don't want to take money out of the economy. That is, of course, slightly disingenuous. Now is certainly not the time to increase taxes on most people, but measures such as increasing the top rate of tax will make very little difference to the amount people spend.

Whoever wins the next election si going to be faced with a mountain of debt which will dwarf the amount the Tories inherited in 2010.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 10th October 2020, 08:13 AM

The Greens have OVERTAKEN the Lib Dems. You love to see it! *.*

Posted by: Crazy Chris 10th October 2020, 08:43 AM

No I honestly think the Tories will be back in front. Covid and Brexit will all but be forgotten and Boris will have settled nicely in to his job and will be more popular. He's had all the cards stacked against him for his first year in office.

Posted by: Quarantilas 10th October 2020, 08:51 AM

Pandemic aside (which he has responded to extremely poorly and down right disgracefully tbh) these are cards of his own making/choosing. You can't cry about the cards being stacked against the person who stacked the deck with those cards in the first place.

Posted by: T Boy 10th October 2020, 08:52 AM

You’re not even trying anymore

Posted by: Rooney 10th October 2020, 09:38 AM

That’s not how these things in politics work out though. We will have 15 years of the Tories pretty much by 2024, voters will want to a change regardless. Plus we’re on the backdrop of Brexit AND covid. The effects of covid wont be forgotten about.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 10th October 2020, 10:04 AM

Seems to suggest that a lot of the "watermelons" that moved from the Greens to Labour in 2015 when Corbyn was elected leader are starting to make their way back to the Greens.

Posted by: Envoirment 10th October 2020, 02:34 PM

It's a shame we don't have a PR voting system. I feel the greens would poll a lot higher if so. I know of quite a few family/friends who would vote them but see it as a waste of a vote and so end up voting for one of the two main parties instead.

Posted by: Crazy Chris 10th October 2020, 02:42 PM

Pardon? He didn't ask for Covid to enter these shores did he?

Posted by: Quarantilas 10th October 2020, 03:00 PM

Pandemic aside

Literally my first two words. Literally. But you know that and you’re pulling out this sea lion trolling technique because you’ve got nothing of substance to contribute

Posted by: Steve201 10th October 2020, 06:11 PM

COVID and brexit are two of the biggest events this century they won’t be forgotten about in 3 years

Posted by: Doctor Blind 12th October 2020, 08:31 PM

First negative rating for Keir Starmer and a further fall for Boris Johnson in favourability. It looks bad but Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn were both constantly below -30.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 12th October 2020, 08:43 PM

Interesting, although I can't think off the top of my head what would have caused Starmers' rating to drop so much in the past week, can't think of any one thing that would cause a drop in his ratings among normal people, unless it's just that more people know of him than before.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 12th October 2020, 08:51 PM

Yes, I don't think there is any single event as such. It is likely just to be a combination of a greater awareness of who he is (and therefore less neutrality) and a general frustration with the lack of direction from both the government and opposition in the handling of the pandemic.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 13th October 2020, 12:41 PM

Something surprising coming out of IpsoMori tomorrow -

Someone on Twitter pointed out the last time he tweeted something like this, it was the first indication that the SNP would sweep the board in the 2015 General Election, so this could be massive. Or, something boring, like Labour leading by 1 point.

Posted by: Quarantilas 13th October 2020, 12:59 PM

Part of me hopes it’s a 60% in favour of Scottish Independence

Posted by: blacksquare 14th October 2020, 11:06 AM

Almost.

Posted by: Steve201 14th October 2020, 11:37 AM

Wonderful stuff!

Referendum now!

Posted by: Quarantilas 14th October 2020, 12:24 PM

What a cracking guess by me!!! Ecstatic of course

Posted by: Hallo'Riheen 14th October 2020, 12:56 PM

Omg omg omg

58%!!!!!!!

I’m so excited for Indyref2 so I can campaign on the doorsteps and help say goodbye to the Union

Posted by: Steve201 14th October 2020, 12:59 PM

It won’t happen our masters in the English Tory party won’t allow it

Posted by: Quarantilas 14th October 2020, 02:04 PM

At that level of support they really can’t prevent it. It’s a when not an if any more.

Posted by: Hallo'Riheen 14th October 2020, 02:38 PM

Everything rests on next year. If the SNP win a majority and indy is still leading, it becomes untenable for BJ. But if we need the Greens again he can say 'oh well you didn't get a majority' and reject it.

The f***ing brass neck of the Tories who said 45% for the SNP last year wasn't a mandate for indy when 43% for the Tories apparently was for hard Brexit

Posted by: Doctor Blind 14th October 2020, 02:58 PM

Yeah, it's baked in now. The secession of Scotland from the UK is a matter of when and not if.

Also-look how strong the support is among younger voters... 70% for 35-44 yrs is incredible! Basically anyone not in the BOOMER generation.

Latest Scottish independence support polling by age:

16-24: 79%
25-34: 68%
35-44: 70%
45-54: 55%
55-64: 57%
65+: 40%

Source: Ipsos Mori, 2-9 October.

Posted by: Quarantilas 14th October 2020, 07:34 PM

The union is a ticking time bomb. It’s literally a matter of when now. Honestly another good Covid round of deaths and we might even hit 50% in the over 65s. (I’m joking!!!!!!)

Posted by: Steve201 14th October 2020, 09:24 PM

I’m surprised at the 40% for over 65s.

But what happens if Boris Johnson just says no anyway??

Posted by: Hallo'Riheen 14th October 2020, 10:11 PM

That's the problem. I've yet to hear the SNP offer a Plan B beyond 'oh but he'll cave eventually' which isnae a plan x

Posted by: Steve201 14th October 2020, 10:34 PM

Yeh I’ve always said the British SOS having the power when a referendum can be called as a huge oversight of the GFA by nationalist leaders at the time.

Posted by: Rooney 14th October 2020, 10:40 PM

Boris won't cave. Has nobody seen how stubborn the current regime is? This is the party that are 10 weeks away from creating economic suicide. What in the right mind do the SNP think they are going to give a referendum in 2021 or 2022!? Don't get me wrong, I think it will happen yet but the best bet is a different Tory leader or a Labour government.

Posted by: Hallo'Riheen 14th October 2020, 10:50 PM

I think the SNP leadership know he's unlikely to cave as well, which is why we haven't heard a proper plan yet. There should be a court challenge if needs be, I'm not sure if they'll do it though.

Posted by: Rooney 14th October 2020, 11:58 PM

I can't see ther being a court challenge. I'd find it pretty daft and a complete waste of public money if that is the case. I think it will certainly happen, but a few other cards need to fall in to place. I think we're talking 3-5 years for another referendum rather than 1-2.

Posted by: Steve201 15th October 2020, 05:44 PM

Exactly what Rooney said they are arrogant in the extreme and it’ll take a different government for it if it does happen and it’ll be in 10 years when the situations more favourable and there’s no chance of them winning

Posted by: Brett-Butler 30th October 2020, 11:27 AM

Two Opinion Polls released today give Labour a lead over the Tories. Who would have thought that attacking a much loved footballer and being on the side of starving children could have such an impact.

Whilst I'm not good at predictions, I do predict that in the next Opinion Polls which include data from the last few days, Labour's lead will increase as a result of Starmer's move to distance the Labour Party from Corbyn.

Posted by: mald487 30th October 2020, 11:29 AM

I'd like to think so but do you not also think we could see fallout from Corbyns suspension from his supporters? If anything I'd anticipate Labour(unfortunately) dropping back again.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 30th October 2020, 11:34 AM

Whilst I imagine that they could lose a tiny amount from die-hard Corbynites, I think they'd more than make that back from Tories voters that cross over, as well as from the "no one/no opinions" that would now answer Labour when asked. It'll be interesting to see if any of the smaller "left" parties do slightly gain in future polls; a few seemed to suggest they may go over to the Green Party, although I imagine that might cause a few problems on their side.

Posted by: Botchia 30th October 2020, 11:40 AM

Ipsos is statistically the most accurate pollster so seeing a 5 point Labour lead there is very pleasing *.*

Putting those figures into the Electoral Calculus model has Boris Johnson losing his seat to Labour!!

Posted by: Rooney 30th October 2020, 11:49 AM

I think the polls will shift ever so slightly back to the Tories, as they have been noticeably quiet this week. However if you're going off YouGov polls etc. - the Corbyn suspension might be better in the long run for the party. It will be interesting to see, I guess it just depends on how big a fallout there is. As Brett says, they might lose votes from the Ultra-left, but will gain votes back from the Tories.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st October 2020, 11:38 AM

You could be right there Rooney. Labour (and Starmer) favourability has taken a fall in the past week, however the underlying metrics suggest this may be just a blip (see below).

Source: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2020-10-30/Labour%20Keir%20favourability-01.png

Posted by: Suedehead2 31st October 2020, 12:24 PM

It's always difficult for a leader of the opposition to score well on issues such as whether they are "strong". In most cases they haven't really had the opportunity to be judged on that.

Posted by: mald487 3rd November 2020, 12:09 PM

Taken from Electoral Calculus .

Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 Oct 2020 to 28 Oct 2020, sampling 13,462 people.

CON 303
LAB 260
SNP 58
LIB 6

Posted by: Doctor Blind 6th November 2020, 11:44 AM

5 point Labour lead this morning- via YouGov.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (+2)
CON: 35% (-3)
LDM: 7% (+1)
BXP: 6% (+2)
SNP: 5% (=)
GRN: 4% (-1)

Via
@YouGov
, 4-5 Nov.
Changes w/ 28-29 Oct.

Posted by: Steve201 6th November 2020, 12:32 PM

Biggest lead of Starmers leadership!

Brexit Party up 2? Maybe due to the restrictions?

Posted by: Doctor Blind 6th November 2020, 04:18 PM

Biggest Labour lead in any poll since July 2019.

Yeah I think Farage moaning about lockdown got a slight uptick, we know from the 2015 GE that there is a solid 14-15% of the electorate that fangirl over him.

Posted by: Steve201 7th November 2020, 02:25 AM

Survation Poll has Johnson 7 points up

Posted by: Trump's Neck WAP 7th November 2020, 01:28 PM

Centrism is dead. Biden and Starmer should neeeverrr have been the candidates.

Posted by: Rooney 7th November 2020, 01:34 PM

Yet Biden is about to be the next US President and Starmer is closing in on the polls.

Posted by: Sixth Sense 7th November 2020, 01:35 PM

We know you wanted Sanders but whom do you think should be leading Labor now?

Posted by: Trump's Neck WAP 7th November 2020, 02:12 PM

And yet Bernie would have won Texas, done FAR better than Biden, had the candidacy STOLEN from him - twice - and Corbyn got more votes than Blair back when the undemocratic corporate media didn't see him as a threat.

Posted by: 💀 Mori 💀 7th November 2020, 02:21 PM

I'd have been scared to try Bernie. He would have been far better, no question, Fox News polls show the popularity of M4A. But enough people bought into 'Biden's a communist', I think Bernie would have lost some key states for the benefit of landsliding California harder. I don't think we can push too far left while the far-right are in power. We have to push left while the neoliberals are in power, because they let it happen, and they aren't getting buoyed up by 'get rid of the fascist, let's return to normal politics'. When they're in power there is space then to push better policies for everyone on it. But the left needs to be taking the opportunities given by neoliberal failures then (and I hope the American left do that as they did under Obama, and moreso), because if they then surrender that opportunity to the right attacking from the sidelines we WILL be right back at 2016 again.

(Bernie would probably have been favoured to win in 2016, he wouldn't have been favoured in 2020, look at the difference between his two primary campaigns, c.f. Corbyn's two general elections also)

What Biden has done has proved how it's possible to decorate a campaign with centrist aesthetics while having some leftist policies on your ticket, and do that successfully. It is the most leftist presidential policy win, perhaps since FDR, even if Biden himself is more naturally conservative.

Posted by: Steve201 7th November 2020, 04:34 PM

I def think the blue collar states in the rust belt trusted Joe ahead of Clinton!

Posted by: Rooney 7th November 2020, 06:16 PM

You're deluded Michael. There is absolutely no way Bernie would have done better than Biden in 2020. You're starting to sound like the man you hate now.

Posted by: Trump's Neck WAP 7th November 2020, 08:38 PM

And yet all polls consistently had Bernie a lot higher than Biden vs Trump or Hillary vs Trump, and he is the most popular politician in the country, AND has more popular policies, AND!!! all progressives stormed to victory. The neolib extreme centrists, your lot, struggled or lost. It is clear.

Posted by: mald487 7th November 2020, 09:26 PM

Your tone is very, extreme.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 7th November 2020, 09:44 PM

It's a counterfactual that we can't test.

Bernie would have likely lost Florida, and given how tight some of the crucial states are in 2020 it would have been a RISK to have him leading the ticket for sure. I'm not saying that he wouldn't have won, just that I don't see how you can be sure that he would have. Biden won, I would have preferred Bernie Sanders as President but why bring this up now when it doesn't matter?

That said, the policies are clearly very popular. I do think that a populist-left figure like AOC could do very well indeed in the future but this was not the time to test that.

Posted by: Rooney 7th November 2020, 10:21 PM

In this reality, we have Trump for another 4 years. Bernie would never have won against Trump I'm sorry, no matter how popular he is. Just like Corbyn was "popular" it doesn't always translate in to the votes when the times are right.

Posted by: Envoirment 7th November 2020, 10:25 PM

I doubt Bernie would've won. He'd definitely have lost Florida as it's much easier to pin Bernie with the "communist" tag than Biden and that did have quite the impact there - particularly amongst Cuban Americans. Not to mention Biden had improved on Hilary's numbers in more rural/suburban areas which helped him flip a number of states. Again, I doubt Bernie would've improved the numbers there like Biden has.

Either way it's great to see the dems back in power - now we need to hope they can at least tie the senate with the upcoming Georgia run offs.

Posted by: Steve201 7th November 2020, 11:55 PM

As David Axelrod rightly pointed out on cnn today issues like free healthcare aren’t left issues they are people’s life issues

Posted by: Trump's Neck WAP 8th November 2020, 01:04 AM

58 vs 36%... Who needs Florida when you have Texas? Again, as we saw on the night the progressives stormed to victory and the neolibs, including Joe, struggled. Bernie would have destroyed Trump AND given us an FDR style presidency, arresting the far right surge, AND guaranteed a second term for his White House. I assume AOC or Nina Turner would have taken over from him for the second race. Centrism is dead. Mad May was shite and Corbyn was far better. Accept it. Extreme centrism is to blame for Trump and Blojo.

Posted by: Rooney 8th November 2020, 12:15 PM

Where are you getting Bernie would have won Texas? The Latino vote is quite mixed. I suspect a lot of Latinos in Texas would have been worried about their oil jobs (and this is what the Trump campaign would have focused on). Corbyn did absolutely nothing as he never won an election and if we start counting the popular vote then we can say UKIP should have had a shitload of MPs back in 2015 too. The far-left are just as deluded as the far-right - like two peas in a pod.

Posted by: Trump's Neck WAP 8th November 2020, 12:54 PM

Again, we are moderate left, and we just seem extreme to those on the extreme centre, like you.

And what tells us that he would have won is his extremely good polling numbers in Texas and among Latino voters.

Posted by: Rooney 8th November 2020, 02:04 PM

The moderate left.. im sure that’s how Laurence Fox, Nigel Farage and Alex Jones portray their conservative views as moderate!

Great so you’re basing all this rubbish off polls, which might be fairly accurate in the UK (to a certain level), but they’ve had some significant margins of errors across this election in certain States. If there’s one thing Trump has said that was correct is that the polls were wrong to some level.

Posted by: Trump's Neck WAP 8th November 2020, 03:06 PM

To some level... I will remind you of the primaries, pre-shenanigans and pre exit polls being out by 15% at least in every state, always favouring Joe LOL, plus Bernie's vote tallies getting slashed as counts went on, with Bernie proving to be EXTREMELY popular with disparate groups of Latinos, except for Florida. Bernie would have cruised ro victory. Joe barely beat him even when he was handed the election in a plate. Again, the moderates flopped and the progressives EASILY won.

Moderate left: equal rights, higher taxes on businesses, a living wage. What is as radical as Nigel Farage about that?

Your centre views, based on a neoliberal rich class destroying the middle class and oppressing the ever-expanding working class, are extreme, not mine. Supporting Mad May over sensible moderate left policies is extreme, not supporting said policies.

Posted by: Trump's Neck WAP 8th November 2020, 10:33 PM

Every SINGLE congressional candidate who did NOT support M4A lost their sear. Every SINGLE ONE WHO DID support M4M won their deat. Meanwhile, Republicans think Kamala is a communist lol. But, sure, Bernie wouldn't have done even better

More Republicans won than in 2016 and Trumo gained 9 MILLION more votes. Appealing from the centre right to the Republicans was a COMPLETE AND UTTER FAILURE. Bernie would have destroyed Trump.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 22nd November 2020, 09:12 PM

Tories back in the lead.

Posted by: Steve201 22nd November 2020, 09:35 PM

Effect of the equality report these past few weeks

Posted by: blacksquare 23rd November 2020, 09:45 AM

Starmer down also.

I hope all the people bleating about real opposition and a real leader for the past few years realise how high the Tories floor of support is. They can be incompetent, malicious, corrupt, etc — and people will continue to stand by them. That is not going to change anytime soon, and I doubt it will until another right-wing party gains prominence.

When that floor of support begins to crumble? Time for Rishi Sunak. They'll just reinvent themselves as an entirely new party — as if they haven't been in power for over a decade.

Posted by: Rooney 23rd November 2020, 11:49 AM

Which is because the Tories have a real hand over the swing centrist voters. It's these people Labour need to win back. I don't think they are a million miles away, the Tories are riding off the vaccine news, Johnson being on TV every few days and the Labour/Corbyn stuff, it was to be expected really. Don't forget in the next week there will be the Priti Patel stuff, so we shall see how that effects the polls.

Posted by: Steve201 23rd November 2020, 06:42 PM

It’ll be basically neck and neck depending on the events each month now which should be the cases considering the tories have been in power 11 years now albeit under three different leaders. It’s the equilivant of being in late 1989 in the thatcher era

Posted by: Doctor Blind 23rd November 2020, 06:59 PM

The Tories do have a narrow lead but if you drill down into the numbers it is really quite extraordinary the growing polarisation between old and young - this is NOT normal. Remember that in the 1980s Thatcher had majority support in 18-34s. I think it has something to do with property ownership and so house prices going up 5% during a global pandemic are probably the main thing holding that very VERY old boomer coalition in place for now.

Posted by: Christmasteve201 3rd December 2020, 11:35 PM

Ch4 polling showed that Labour are 47% to 41% ahead in the red wall seats meaning they would retake 80% of them if the election was today!

Posted by: Iz Rink 4th December 2020, 03:08 AM

That's interesting, and promising news, as expected, wouldn't take much of a swing across the region for the red wall to fall back into place again. They'll probably still be swing constituencies by 2024 but we may see a few that are almost certain Conservative losses.

Posted by: Christmasteve201 4th December 2020, 11:18 AM

It’ll be interesting to see as 16% were don’t knows

Posted by: blacksquare 4th December 2020, 09:31 PM

The same poll. The Sunak Tory rebranding is going to happen — I just wonder when.

Posted by: Michael Bubré 5th December 2020, 12:26 AM

Who has a positive opinion about Dominic Cummings?

Posted by: Quarantilas 5th December 2020, 06:13 AM

Laura Kuessenberg and Robert Peston?

Posted by: Iz Rink 5th December 2020, 06:28 AM

He might have gotten appreciation from the really far gone anti-lockdown conspiracy theorists + UKIP people

Sunak is of course the interesting one from that poll, he's riding high because of bread and circuses, I'm very interested to see how far that'll go when he has to be bringing bad news (though arguably he already did that a bit with his spending review).

Posted by: Envoirment 6th December 2020, 10:47 PM

Just wait until the March 2021 budget (if it's not cancelled) - we'll see how high Rishi's ratings are then. Especially if a no deal brexit goes ahead.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 31st December 2020, 09:12 PM

The Conservatives were polling 26 points ahead of Labour in late March/early April. That lead has now completely gone but the support for the Conservatives looks pretty solidly at ~40%.

Next year (which starts tomorrow! ) we have the (delayed) local elections, the Scottish Parliament election, and the (also delayed) London mayoral election.

Fun!

Posted by: Envoirment 1st January 2021, 03:03 PM

It'll be interesting to see how things go now that Brexit is "done". I feel we could see a decent labour lead by the end of the year.

Posted by: common sense 1st January 2021, 03:11 PM

No I believe the Tories will be bouncing back. Brexit done and a whole new bright future ahead. Covid soon under control with vaccines. Good Tory lead in a year's time.

Posted by: mald487 2nd January 2021, 12:10 PM

Posted by: Oh Botchia! 2nd January 2021, 02:39 PM

Meanwhile in the real world, there will be Brexit implementation disruption, Covid will remain rampant until at least June 2021, a surge in unemployment from this summer as furlough ends and sadly an Autumn 2021 budget/spending review with the return of austerity because it's the Tories.

Posted by: Rooney 2nd January 2021, 03:12 PM

The Tories will still have a lead for a while, but the problem I suspect will come for the Tories in 2-3 years time once the cost and enquiry of the pandemic comes out in to the public eyes. I suspect Johnson will possibly be gone by then, but Labour will focus on winning back the north and the next election will not be based on an idelogy like the last one was. Once the vaccine is administered, I suspect for a few months or possibly even the whole of 2021 they will be running off the bounce of relative normality having an effect in the polls.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 4th January 2021, 04:05 PM

Big story here is not the Tories 6pt Brexit bounce but the Lib Dems polling at FOUR percent - lowest in any poll since April 1990. Greens now the official 3rd biggest party in the UK, and growing!

Posted by: blacksquare 4th January 2021, 04:15 PM

4% — wow.

They're probably better off becoming a single issue party and focusing on rejoin. Not that it'll get much traction, but neither did UKIP at first. Where else is there for them to go?

Posted by: Doctor Blind 4th January 2021, 04:21 PM

The 2008 financial crisis killed centrism and neoliberalism stone dead. The Lib Dems don't seem to have accepted that, because it's evolve or die time.

Posted by: Christmas WAPing 4th January 2021, 07:08 PM

The faster the Labour centrists learn this, the better.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 4th January 2021, 07:57 PM

I'd say the opposite - their numbers likely fell off a cliff because Brexit has now happened and their flagship policy - "no Brexit", ain't going to happen for a long time. They need to find a new flagship, headline grabbing policy that fully sets them apart from Labour/Tories a la tuition fees, anti-Iraq War, if they want any chance of a revival. Rejoining won't be it in my humble, yet sexy, opinion.

Posted by: common sense 4th January 2021, 07:59 PM

They'd be better off just calling it a day and joining with Labour

Posted by: Suedehead2 4th January 2021, 09:32 PM

It's one poll. No conclusions should EVR be drawn from a single opinion poll. As for suggesting that the Lib Dems should call it a day, why should they? Any suggestion that the views of a country the size of England can be split into just two categories is utterly bonkers. The only major democracy with just two parties is the USA and just look at the choice electors have been presented with in many recent elections.

Posted by: blacksquare 5th January 2021, 10:57 AM

I don't completely disagree — but my view is more long-term, and not an immediate pivot. At some point the realities of Brexit will become apparent and the FBPE types will become more vocal — Labour certainly aren't going to touch it. So who else?

In general, with Starmer leading Labour, I struggle to see them gaining much — especially not with Davey.

Posted by: steve201 8th January 2021, 09:57 AM

The thing with the liberals is they do far better in other parties so there are liberals in the tories and many many in labour. Plus since 2008 and Brexit especially the dominant ideology has moved the centre to the right and left at the same time so liberals cant fathom moving here as they are stuck like its 2005 forever!!

So 1000 deaths a day and the tories STILL polling 40%? What a country England (southern) is......

Posted by: Brett-Butler 1st February 2021, 08:50 AM

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dups-support-takes-a-dive-in-wake-of-irish-sea-border-row-40033751.html made for interesting reading. As a result of the sea border between GB & Northern Ireland, the DUP's support has collapsed to 19%, which is below Sinn Fein who have 24% at the moment, with the non-partisan Alliance Party biting at their heels on 18%. DUP's support has seeped into the TUV, a party formed by Jim Alistair when the DUP went into government with Sinn Fein, and who make the DUP look like People Before Profit in comparison, whose support has exploded from 2% to 10%

Posted by: steve201 1st February 2021, 01:50 PM

So basically the DUP have been made to look like fools by their support of brexit and anyone who’s annoyed by the propaganda about the Irish Sea Border are moving to the TUV while the remain vote still divided between SF/Alliance/SDLP. The media in NI really are bigging up this with constant reports of products we are having a problem getting now and it just feeds into insecurities of certain sections. Mr Nolan I’m talking about you!

Posted by: Doctor Blind 1st February 2021, 04:17 PM

I think many Unionists are waking up to the fact that the Conservatives are more than happy to throw them under a bus when it suits their agenda.

Bring on the Border Poll.

Posted by: steve201 1st February 2021, 06:10 PM

I agree and it’s the fault of their political leadership.

But a quick look at history on the island proves that Westminster government have never cared which happens I guess when you have 650 MPs and at least 500 are English that’s understandable. History is important here - this was exactly why Ireland wanted home rule through the 19th century due to the democratic deficit apparent most unbelievably during the famine.

But in reality unionism ignores that fact due to the views that they are as British as anyone else on these islands. So it comes down to nationality and ethnicity nearly.

The media is a problem too as they generally lean to a unionist mindset as they are set in their ways, similar to in Scotland I guess. So they have been playing up any small issue with the protocol which riles up the working class in communities. I can for see protests not being to much of a leap away from the situation but the working class loyalists base can be very hard to control once you open the e Pandora’s box or the feel their unionism is undermined in some way as could be seen from the flag protests a decade ago.

Posted by: Botchia 12th February 2021, 04:28 PM

:/

Posted by: Iz 💀 12th February 2021, 04:42 PM

There was a poll the other day that had a Labour (-3) and Green (+3) that got people talking a bit. Honestly though, it feels like that while a bit of this is Labour a bit weaker than otherwise and some of its coalition is gone to the Greens, some of it may also be former Lib Dems.

There's also a bit of talk I've seen about how this is Labour's patriotism but I think that is the right route for them in the long run, promote a kind of patriotism that makes voters want to stand up and make their country better and worthy of being beloved. More likely it's just the vaccine boost so the current 'need' for opposition to the government is lesser and voters are exploring other parties.

It's a really bad poll, on the one hand we should expect those right now, on the other, Labour should be doing far better given the government's handling of... everything. They need to be looking like they can govern well in advance of 2024.

Posted by: Rooney 12th February 2021, 04:51 PM

The Government are riding off the back off of 14 million people getting vaccinated. Labour should probably be doing slightly better in the polls I agree, but the Tories will ride this wave until the spring at least and probably beyond.

Longer term I agree the patriotism move is where Labour need to move to and the reality is in 2024 if Labour were able to get in to power, it would be a coalition with the support of other parties. My only concern with Labour is the shadow Cabinet seem to be pretty weak in terms of media profiles. A couple of them could really do with getting their names out there a bit more and trying not to be so on the fence.

Posted by: Suedehead2 12th February 2021, 06:05 PM

It's almost back to pre-coalition days but with the "plague on both your houses" vote evenly split between Lib Dems and Greens.

Posted by: Botchia 13th February 2021, 02:24 PM

And the saddest thing about FPTP is that that 16% of votes would equate to just 9 seats. We desperately need electoral reform.

Posted by: Envoirment 13th February 2021, 02:27 PM

I'm expecting the Green Party to garner more and more support as the decade goes on. I wouldn't be surprised to see them polling in the 10-15% range in a few years.

One thing I'm interested in is to see if Nigel Farage's new party makes any splash. It could make a dent in the Con's numbers.

Posted by: Dill Doe 13th February 2021, 03:00 PM

Why aren't Labour doing better? They are against the worst-performing, most authoritarian government in a century; they should be 20 points ahead, but they aren't! It must be the centrist leader. It just goes to show the UK is not a centrist country. Under a different leader, rhey would be 20 points ahead.

Posted by: Suedehead2 13th February 2021, 03:16 PM

We've needed it desperately for decades!

Posted by: Rooney 13th February 2021, 05:16 PM

Put your puff down Michael.

Posted by: common sense 13th February 2021, 06:08 PM

Who would you suggest that may be then Michael?

Posted by: T Boy 13th February 2021, 06:25 PM

Their leader isn’t challenging the government effectively even though it’s basically an open goal. It’s like Starmer is afraid of Johnson making new sound bites about him.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 13th February 2021, 07:54 PM

The boost for the Conservatives is definitely as a result of the successful vaccine rollout. However, I completely disagree with you that a focus on patriotism is the right route for Labour to fight back and win in 2024. I don't think those that shifted from LAbour>Conservatives (mainly in the over 65s) are ever coming back, for the simple reason of simple self-interest. Property owning boomers who have a nice pension linked up to the stock market are always going to favour the Conservatives who will do everything in their power to keep house prices artificially high. Secondly, I think that the disingenuous flag waving comes across as quite fake and the general public are not stupid and will see through it, possibly damaging their chances at an election win ever further. Furthermore it just doesn't speak to the younger generations who put climate change near the top of their political priorities, something that will require the nations of the world to work together closely for and not obsess or fall into this pit of damaging isolationist nationalism nonsense. We've seen how horrendous the collaboration has been globally on a pandemic, it will be even worse on climate change.

You don't win an election by attempting to win back part of an electorate that are sticky, have huge inertia and basically aren't moving - but instead motivating that larger progressive majority that at the moment just aren't voting in large enough numbers. Given the proposed boundary review is going to favour even more that aging electorate of boomers having an even more disproportionate impact on the election, I at this stage from what I've seen from Starmer see absolutely zero hope of Labour winning the 2024 election. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think sadly I will be.

Posted by: Rooney 13th February 2021, 08:12 PM

But I can present a counter argument that going after the progressive vote will turn a lot of Labour voters off, especially in the heartlands up north and voters over 40+. While I am all for some progressive change, the harsh reality is lots of the electorate don't like change and if you push too much, they will go and cast their vote elsewhere out of fear. It's kind of a lose-lose situation.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 13th February 2021, 08:14 PM

I completely disagree, the public WANTED change and Boris Johnson was offering that. Leaving the EU, a fresh start, loads of new hospitals. It was quite a left leaning (but socially conservative ) approach, and it worked.

It bugs the centrists, but it's true.

Edit- also, the age at which you were more likely to vote Conservative than Labour surged to 47 in 2017 under Corbyn's progressive manifesto.

Posted by: Dill Doe 13th February 2021, 08:26 PM

Worked fine in 2017 before the media savaged Corbyn, and he still got more votes in 2020 AFTER said savaging than Blair. The policies were only ever a problem so much as it made the establishment go on fight for its privileged life mode.

Posted by: Rooney 13th February 2021, 08:45 PM

I think you're mixing up what change I mean. There are a lot of people, most middle aged who see so much change in the world it scares them. I don't think Labour need to win these types of votes, but they definitely need to avoid any sort of idealism that excludes them for this and are idological fault they may have. Labour focusing on patriotism isn't necessarily a bad thing if it is done right - e.g. increase in spending on public services & NHS for example.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 13th February 2021, 09:00 PM

Which dropped back down to 39 at the 2019 General Election.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 13th February 2021, 09:10 PM

Yeah, I see what you mean Rooney. I just think the focus on patriotism is wrong - it will continue to erode Labour's support in Wales and Scotland and fail to really pick up any votes elsewhere because nobody is buying it.

Also the desperate attempt to conveniently get the public to forget that he supported a second referendum when he was the driving force behind it (and the eventual 2019 electoral drubbing it led to) is comedy value.

Posted by: Rooney 13th February 2021, 09:16 PM

It could be wrong but who knows. Whatever Labour were doing before wasn't working either. I think if it is done right and the pandemic leads to greater increases in people wanting the Government to invest in UK based public services then it could be good.

Starmer has to forget about the second referendum, as does the whole country. I think in the end, a lot of us who were Pro-EU ultimately forgot that while there were many people who voted to stay in the EU, a large proportion of these people just wanted it over and done with. It's done now and we have to move on as a country in the medium term.

Posted by: Iz 💀 14th February 2021, 02:28 AM

Mostly I'm in agreement with Rooney on this, largely because I don't want to abandon easy rhetoric about 'levelling the country up' and 'being proud of your country' to the right, which can definitely be done without falling to nationalism. I think it can be done without losing left-leaning principles, including shifting the ideas of patriotism around to be less uncritically loving of the past so that when elements of the left (which I am in full agreement with) start to bring up, say, legitimate criticisms of Churchill, that that can be done without the general public losing its shit at our side. I see Labour looking towards elements of English patriotism as something needed so we can start to reclaim it from its poisonous associations.

I think the future progressive majority are able to accept a bit of flag-waving that isn't harmful. It's the sort of thing that gets them better press in the long run and while it probably won't win many votes itself, it's a backbone for the average voter to consider them. It doesn't have to be exclusive to internationalism either, which is definitely more broadly the better way forward. My main concern about Labour is what they'll be offering to structurally challenge the age divide and inequality in the country, that's what will win or lose them the younger progressives. Perhaps I shouldn't have said a focus, I just want them to have it so they don't get hit with easy attacks.

If Labour are going to have a future in the UK before it gets broken up, they'll need that. I do think you definitely have a point about how their issues are bad in the devolved areas and patriotism won't help and will come across as too England-centric, it's depressing when the best projection I can come up with for them is that they'd do best with the UK broken up as fast as possible. Outflanking the SNP on progressive Scottish nationalism is pretty impossible and unfortunately detrimental to their chances elsewhere, as for Wales, their lack of major opposition to Westminster might hurt them in the long run.

Posted by: blacksquare 14th February 2021, 12:18 PM

All the polls make me think now is how do Labour win a majority government without Scotland?

Posted by: Dill Doe 14th February 2021, 12:37 PM

It was working. If it weren't for Brexshit, and in 2017 the sabotage of the Labour right throwing their toys out the pram, it would have worked.

Posted by: Rooney 14th February 2021, 03:38 PM

You mean Brexshit, which a Corbyn led Labour to do absolutely nothing to swing the vote to Remain? Or forgetting the disaster of the 2019 election.

The result in 2017 was fantastic, but the truth is the Tories ousted out their unpopular leader after the calamity and Labour failed to understand that Corbyn was unpopular with large proportions of the electorate despite how good some of the core policies may have been.

Posted by: Dill Doe 14th February 2021, 05:45 PM

With the media in the BBTories' pockets, Labpur's one chance to avoid a one party state was in 2017, and the centrists/right ruined it. If they hadn't sabotaged Corbyn, we would be in a coalition left-wing government right now, wjth a reformed voting system and media. Things would be looking very different. I guess neoliberals want ALL of the power, with the left forced to vote for them, rather thsn just MOST OF IT

Posted by: Suedehead2 14th February 2021, 06:08 PM

When did Corbyn ever advocate electoral reform? Labour had a chance to change the electoral system when they were last in power. Despite a commitment to do so, they failed.

Posted by: Iz 💀 15th February 2021, 09:40 AM

Just one of many reasons why the last Labour government was a failure for progressive and democratic causes. They should have realised the two-party system doesn't favour them, it favours their rivals, they should have tried harder to put in safeguards to stop it but it risked their position as the eternal (and ultimately pointless) alternative whenever people finally see through Conservative bullshit.

A left-wing Labour elected on a fluke might have realised that the best way to help their chances of getting back in power again would have been to implement electoral reform. Might, though Corbyn's direction was always a bit too stubborn for me to be confident about that.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 3rd March 2021, 01:49 AM

You can have a route out of this pandemic nightmare but it involves the Tories being absolved of their numerous fuck-ups that no doubt extended this hell, and instead being rewarded with a huge bump in the polls.

Seriously the 2020s can just get in the bin.

Posted by: blacksquare 3rd March 2021, 11:30 AM

How high do we think they'll get when the vaccine boost is actually felt this summer and everything reopens?

Posted by: steve201 3rd March 2021, 12:25 PM

People have short f***ing memories like - absolute bunch of jokers!

Posted by: Quarantilas 3rd March 2021, 12:55 PM

I seriously do not understand these polling figure or apparently 43% of the general public

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 3rd March 2021, 12:57 PM

It's because the media have pushed the narrative that the success of the vaccine rollout is down to them, when it really isn't.

Posted by: blacksquare 4th March 2021, 06:46 PM

45%

Posted by: T Boy 4th March 2021, 06:49 PM

My god. I mean, when there’s no opposition, it’s no surprise but Jesus...

Posted by: Envoirment 4th March 2021, 06:52 PM

Wouldn't be surprised to see them up to 50% come summer with vaccine rollout/restrictions ending.

It won't be until the autumn budget is released with all the planned tax hikes that the tories will start slipping in the polls. We may even see austerity in full force once again in 2022-2024 which could hurt them quite a lot in time for the next election perhaps?

I've resigned the 2020s to having the cons in power the whole decade. :/ The only thing I hope is that they lose enough support to make a dent in their majority.

Posted by: blacksquare 4th March 2021, 07:09 PM

You're right — post-lockdown, post-vaccine, summer bliss.

The party seems more concerned with social conservatism than economic so I really don't think austerity is coming back — not in the way we expect at least. That doesn't mean they won't continue being corrupt and helping their friends get richer though.

Posted by: Dill Doe 4th March 2021, 07:20 PM

Keir Starmer and the right wing centrists should be 20 points ahead! The last time Labour was ahead was with Democratic socialists at the helm. Says it all, doesn't it, centrists?

Posted by: Smint 4th March 2021, 07:24 PM

Yes my fear is the jingoism and the war on woke that the Tories will focus more on to divide and rule and put the "Red Wall" seats on lock. Starmer has been such a disappointment. Thought he would at least try to unite the wings of the Labour party and be more positive on equality but hes scared of his own shadow

Posted by: steve201 4th March 2021, 07:36 PM

Do people forget 130k people have died.....

Posted by: Envoirment 4th March 2021, 08:04 PM

I don't think they will go with outright austerity, but they will do something - likely a stealth tax. The one thing I'm interested in is whether we'll see the changing demographic affect the next election. COVID-19 has primarily killed older people (65+) and has killed/will kill a significant amount to cause a decrease in the amount of state pension the government will pay over the next few years. I wonder if that will also have an affect on the voting demographic given the older someone is the more likely to vote for the conservatives.



The unfortunate thing for most is that is just a number - something most people cannot necessarily comprehend and that can be easily forgotten. People are more likely to remember the positives than negatives: i.e; being vaccinated/restrictions ending/seeing family again etc.

Posted by: RabbitFurCoat 4th March 2021, 08:14 PM

I'm sure the last polling I saw had more people blaming the public than the government for rise in cases, deaths and restrictions, with some of the governments worst policies being backed by opposition parties, unfortunately Labour have done an awful job in convincing anyone we'd be in any better state if they were in power. And anyone who's anti-lockdown is still far more likely to vote for the government given no other party have proposed any sort of alternative.

But no where close to being infront when it actually mattered. Remarkably similar to today, infact.

Posted by: Dill Doe 4th March 2021, 08:17 PM

And so the left wing policies were neeever the problem - quite the opposite, really - and the hard right media and one party stare were to blame.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 4th March 2021, 10:03 PM

I think there is probably a ceiling at around 50%, that's as high as it got during March 2020 - likewise there is a floor of around 40% at the moment.

You think that's depressing? The boundary review that will be implemented before the next GE will make it even more favourable for the Conservatives. I've just resigned myself to the fact that they will be in power until at least 2029 now.

Posted by: steve201 4th March 2021, 10:25 PM

Imagine a party in power from 2010-2030 nearly? Every time there’s a Labour government even a long running one they always end up out of power for a generation afterwards - the tories and their allies in the media are so good at convincing the average idiot working and middle classes that their gains produced are a problem for the country as a hole.

Posted by: Iz 💀 5th March 2021, 02:38 AM

Electoral Calculus puts the following on that poll:
Tories - 371
Labour - 195
Lib Dems - 5
Greens - 1
SNP - 56
Plaid - 4
NI - 18

which is really quite grim, to be potentially in the ballpark of doing worse than 2019. I've even seen a little bit of talk about an early election which at the moment would not be good, there's nothing from Labour to sell what sort of government they'd have in place of the current one, this may just be a vaccine bounce but Labour have let the narrative get away from them, they're coasting and they're just making it harder on themselves to bring it back as recovery sets in.

Labour need to imagine what a Conservative opposition would be doing with 130,000 dead and at least try to have some of the ferocity that oppositionTories obviously would have.

Posted by: Envoirment 5th March 2021, 06:55 PM

I agree. I don't see them doing much over the next few months though really. They should have their eyes set for later this year once the vaccine rollout/restriction easing bump for the tories begins to wane and the reality of the next budget starts to make itself known.

Posted by: Rooney 5th March 2021, 07:30 PM

Are people confused that we're still in the midst of a bloody pandemic? Starmer and Labour have been relegated to zoom calls whilst the Government plod on the media at 5pm everyday off the back of a successful vaccine rollout, Brexit delivered and a half decent budget. It's hard to do politics. Personally while I do think Starmer could have done more, he's stopped the rot from the previous election result of 2019. I think if memory serves me right his personal approval ratings are higher than Labour, so that's a really solid base to work from in the future. It's always going to be a tricky way back, but the election is three years away and not next week. Just got to grin and bare this for a while, probably 6 months or so. If it's still the same in 2023 then we have a major problem, I totally agree. Personally i think the Tories would be a bit mad to call an early election and any sign that they call for one shows to me that they know the economy is going to be well and truly fukkkked.

Posted by: Iz 💀 23rd March 2021, 03:54 PM

as protests are on the verge of being outlawed, with young people are losing their jobs, the public might turn to a leader of the opposition to rally those disaffected by the government under their banner, to promise a political movement to fight strongly for freedom of expression even when against state interests, to invest in the younger generation, to offer ideas, to give hope for change, to focus energy so that 'those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent action inevitable' is less of an inevitability as there is reason to invest in the system for those currently left outside of it.

probably not this LOTO though

Posted by: steve201 23rd March 2021, 08:23 PM

I want Starmer to win even as a Corybn supporter as a Labour governments better than a Tory one, that’s the difference in the two groups!

Posted by: Rooney 23rd March 2021, 09:09 PM

As I said before in my above post, these polls don't really tell us much. The Tories are front page of the media everyday off the back of a successful vaccination programme. We're seeing exactly the same trends in Scotland too, support for the SNP has increased in the polls (at least in 2020) which will largely be down to Sturgeon being on TV every day. People already have a rod up Starmer's backside as he is playing to the moderates, the election is in 2024, the people whose vote matter in these elections unfortunately don't care what happens now. I totally agree Starmer is probably taking some votes for granted, but anyone who decides to vote against Labour in a marginal needs their head scratching if they really claim to hate Tories as much as they say they do.

Labour were always likely to take a battering in the May elections and I don't think Corbyn would have prevented that, he may have even made it worse, who knows. I agree losing the by-election in Hartlepool would be a bit of a blow, but that's not happened yet.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 23rd March 2021, 09:35 PM

I think that it's unlikely Labour will lose the by-election in Hartlepool, I appreciate this is the wrong thread to discuss this but seems relevant at the moment. It'll likely be close but the fact that the candidate for Labour is a doctor will be deliberately accentuated and played up at every opportunity to make the most of the successful vaccine rollout and general good will toward the NHS right now. They will also massively downplay and ignore the fact that he's a remainer, advocated for a second referendum etc. given that the constituency is like 70% for Leave. Amazing that Labour held on in 2019 tbh.

The fact that he's an apologist for the brutal and frankly disgusting Saudi dictatorship (after recieving paid trips out there) means I can't support him personally but yeah, probably win won't he?

Also Iz, are you quoting Ash Sarkar (quoting JFK) there? *.* We stan.

Posted by: Iz 💀 24th March 2021, 01:58 AM

Aye, I saw her post about it (to be met with Jeremy Vine asserting that loss of the right to protest isn't really a big deal :/) and I have been seeing that quote about the place a bit as the Bill moves through Parliament. It's a really significant one and it's astounding that the only public voices fully against it are the left-wing ones, so many self-described liberals are keeping rather silent here to focus instead on flag etiquette or something.

I think putting those Starmer ratings alongside other ratings like the one below show that there is a malaise with Starmer that isn't just to do with the spur of the moment vaccine bounce or anything short-term like that. He started losing people around last October, which also happens to be when he made his party look divided by booting out the former leader.



Hartlepool I think will be a very significant test. Labour can't really hold the threat of the Tories over people's heads like a centrist Labour would at election-time, the Tories are already in government and one more or less MP is not going to change the balance. And the candidate they've put up is so dodgy in all the worst ways that people are accusing the current Labour leadership of, including of course, being selected without a process. The fact he's a doctor is possibly the only redeeming quality that could swing some votes who wouldn't vote Labour otherwise. But for the most part, time to see how tradtionally Labour these votes really are, or if Starmer has turned the party into a milquetoast barrel of nothing.

We are approaching the point where even my analytical side is starting to consider that Long-Bailey might be doing better. At least she might have offered an alternative narrative in the past 11 months.

Posted by: blacksquare 25th March 2021, 11:09 AM

I'm really not convinced Hartlepool is in the bag tbh

The most worrying thing to me about the current polling is how Starmer has been semi-protected by the press so far — that isn't going to be the case the closer we get to the election.

Posted by: steve201 25th March 2021, 01:21 PM

I think Starmer is one of those people who looks longer term like 2024 not 2021 and is happy to go along until then. His past in the CPS and cases he dealt with has shown that. It also shows he fights for rights on both sides of any arguement but thats another debate.

Posted by: Iz 💀 31st March 2021, 08:54 AM

Red Wall poll and details in a rather interesting Twitter thread.

Outside of already expressed woes about Starmer's favourability going down, lack of clarity and (frustratingly) people thinking he's played party politics too much meaning he might as well have gone ahead and actually played them, interesting how the Tory budget has gone down well and also interesting on Tory weaknesses though, nurses' pay might be a sticking point for them.

Posted by: Dill Doe 31st March 2021, 10:35 AM

Centrism is dead, and Stqrmer made the mistake of not pointing out Tory corruption during the pandemic, or why it showd we need a strong, not privatised, nhs. The good news is when compliant opposition Starmer does terribly even with media apathy, the left should be back.

Posted by: Iz 💀 31st March 2021, 10:52 AM

This is an improvement in the Red Wall from the 2019 election, but it was only ever going to go up.

Thing is, local elections were bad for Labour last time as they were before the height of Corbynism, so there might even be gains. But no media is championing Labour, disappearing from the conversation is, unsurprisingly, bad for electoral prospects.

Posted by: Rooney 31st March 2021, 11:08 AM

The (hard)left is gone, I think the sooner activists (people who are really engaged in politics) realise the lines of politics are so blurred post Brexit then the sooner we will kick The Tories out. Some people who might be Centre-Right might vote for Labour and people who are Centre-Left might actually vote for the Tories. Just because Starmer doesn't come out with progressive ideas that activists want him to come and say, doesn't mean they won't happen. You won't hear the Tories shouting about privitising parts of the NHS, but will it happen? You betcha.

Steve hit the nail on the head earlier - Starmer is focusing on 2024 and quite rightly. I doubt Labour will win the election in 2024 due to the battering in 2019, but it might make things harder for the Tories in the next term. The average voter (who decide elections) won't remember what is happening now in three years time with regards to Party Politics. Of course engaged activists will and you run the risk of losing their votes of course, but like I have always said, a large majority of these people just label anyone who has a different view to them as a Tory and if they decide to vote some independent party in a swing seat then they clearly don't hate the Tories as much as they claim.

The Twitter thread is quite interesting, some interesting tidbits in there. No surprise the vaccine bounce has led to a bigger surge of Tory voters. The concern would be in the Tories manage to ride off this boost. This is undoubtedly having an impact on switchers and undecided voters. Unfortunately as a country, we are very socially conservative in the main and this current situation suits the Tories down to an absolute glove.

Posted by: Iz 💀 31st March 2021, 11:28 AM

At the moment, it's the job of these activists to convince Starmer that their policies are worth exploring in a Labour government, floating their ideas to ensure differentiation, for all the talk on how we are socially conservative, that's principally one aging cohort. Labour needs to get the right messaging, get their name out there as a driver for positive change, something that inspires people to consider them better on the issues AND change the issues that are important, the current ones are indeed all very Tory-favourable. Proactive not reactive. That's how the right changed this country from 2015-2019, and how the left would have if the right hadn't outnumbered them.

Starmer's just too reactive. 2022 is going to be the important year for him to make a mark, I don't think he can wait until 2024, perceptions tend to stick if not challenged.

Posted by: Rooney 31st March 2021, 12:03 PM

The problem is Iz, a lot of these things are just pie in the sky and not helped by voting boundaries. Ideally you'd want some of the more progressive votes split around the country from the cities, but that's only going to get worse if anything. Britain as a country has always been largely socially conservative, I've said it before but I'm not convinced how much social change is actually wanted by voters. Labour need to win back the swing voters, it's clear there are tons of votes up for grabs but they're not going to win them back by deciding we now want nationalised post offices (as an example).

My views are Starmer is working towards mid-2022 and 2023 as his turning point, right now it's tredding water but I'm not sure a different Labour leader would have done any better (I'm mildly confident they would have done worse). There are shitloads of problems with Labour which are not going to be solved overnight, just look at the situation in Liverpool. It's put Labour in an incredibly awkward situation. I'm sure they will get battered in the local elections. But longer term, I'm not sure that matters too much as local councillors are bloody useless, more interested in ego boosting rather than actually using local taxes to good use.

Posted by: Envoirment 31st March 2021, 06:13 PM

Interesting. I do wonder how it will look in a year's time once the vaccine rollout boost has faded/furlough ends and we get the next budget. The next budget will be the one where budget cuts/tax hikes etc will be most prevelant and I am very sure it will not be a popular budget. Especially if the cuts and tax increases disproportionally affect the poorer in society - which given the current government will be almost guarenteed.

Keir Starmer will need to push the government hard over the next budget and be very proactive in his opposition to it.

Posted by: Iz 💀 1st April 2021, 05:13 AM

What is social conservatism though (and I don't mean a euphemism for racism)? Because Britain is very socially liberal on LGBT rights and racism, at least on policy (and though it's an all-or-nothing thing really and that's why the other topic on race exists, this is supported by more people than not in the country) and it just keeps getting more liberal no matter who's in government, the swing voters who disagreed with that in the North were those already voting Conservative, they aren't the swing voters to win back. There's this myth of the old white working class northerner who's racist and wants a 1950s white Britain and has Valid Concerns™ about the "Woke Brigade" and I see no evidence that that sort of person really exists in large numbers, those that do are retired and ever shrinking in number. The working-class is a lot more socially left and on board with at least identity rights and multiculturalism, many of them indeed ARE from different ethnic backgrounds.

Britain may well be socially conservative in some aspects, like family-oriented, against immigration, maybe harsher punishments on crime, but those are policy-specific and going to be complex, I reckon most of the pro-immigration votes will be in Labour's base already. And anti-immigration is only an issue that tends to be on the conservative side of things because of conservative pro-business actions that make threats to jobs a reality, which is fixed (by a pro-immigration party) through investment, not through a party campaigning to be regressive on who we let in. i.e. Immigration is only an issue because of the material realities of Britain that can be changed by a party willing to frame an argument around investment - which, to the Tories' credit, the whole 'levelling Britain up' thing is the sort of rhetoric that would be useful here.

I don't buy that Labour has to be doing a 'suck it up... we're just going to have to get more racist' strategy, that's a dark road to be going.

And given that Starmer already has from this poll, a bad poll for him, lots of the Red Wall seats back under his cap, it's not like Labour doesn't have a shot at the next election, it's not an insurmountable mountain. Saying that 2024 is lost because of 2019 is making excuses for centrist failures... 3 years before the fact. Labour just needs to stand for SOMETHING, not nothing. It's like advertising, you need to be visible, not making the most bland statements possible to not offend anyone.

Posted by: Iz 💀 1st April 2021, 05:26 AM

Seat distribution points are completely fair though, that will indeed likely get worse especially with the boundary changes. There are certain traditionally socially conservative things that Labour can try, especially if combined with economically left things that can be shown to be better than the Conservatives. I agree with the point above that pinpointing the next budget would be a good idea.

Starmer needs to go fire and brimstone on the Tories when he can. I still think he's been too passive over the crisis and let the Conservatives dictate the narrative and so if he doesn't at the next budget, when people start to feel the strain, I don't think we can count on him.

Posted by: Rooney 1st April 2021, 09:02 AM

There are some good points, but I think there are a lot of assumptions about the electorate. Possibly a bad example, but we will go with it, yes Britain is socially less racist and more progressive on LGBT+ issues to a point, certainly compared to other countries. But it's very similar to the housing crisis, most of the country will agree with the for housing.. except when it actually turns up on their front door. One thing Labour do not want to do right now, is get in to any form of culture war with the Tories as they will spin it very well to make Labour look like fools.

My feelings are pick your battles right now with the Tories, activists want him to see him tearing the Tories a new one every single time, but I don't think that's going to win an election. I mean if half of the country can't even tell us what the main covid symptoms are, do you think they will be engaged to see the Tories being made to look like mugs. They don't care and won't have any semblings of care until there is an election. Yes, it is completely passive but we tried going gung-ho last time led by Momentum and look where that got us..

Of course it is reasonable to think Labour have a shot in 2024, but it's also an extremely difficult task. To claw back an 80+ seat majority is going to be a huge challenge. That's not making an excuse for failure, it's been a realist that it's going to be extremely difficult to hold current Labour voters, keep Centrist voters, get swing voters and win back some of the Red Wall seats. I don't believe you get that back by just standing for something which is clearly visible (it is far more complex than that, at least how I interpret it), I think that's a lazy straight out of McCluskey.

Posted by: Harve 1st April 2021, 05:49 PM

If you think about social attitudes in Britain in terms of social authoritarianism ('hang the paedos', curtain twitchers, a deep distrust of others) rather than social conservatism (anti-abortion, anti-LGBT views etc.) then it makes more sense.

Posted by: blacksquare 6th April 2021, 07:52 AM

Some very interesting polling from Hartlepool here— 67% want increased investment in public services, 69% support free broadband, 57% support nationalisation of Royal Mail, 42% support 10% pay increase for nurses (43% for 3%)

None of that Labour are offering anymore.

Posted by: Iz 💀 6th April 2021, 08:09 AM

'broadband communism'

Joe Biden is literally rolling out something similar right now across the USA. What we could have had...

Posted by: Rooney 6th April 2021, 08:21 AM

Did they ask the poll sample if they also favoured tax hikes across the board?

For what it is worth I favoured the Broadband policy, the concept had some legs to it. I was slightly surprised how the Tories just brushed it aside and even the electorate too. It's certainly something I suspect a party will adopt at one stage.

Posted by: steve201 6th April 2021, 09:39 AM

People only cared about ‘gettin Brexit done’ mate 😂! Clowns!! The tories always dismiss Labour policies and then have them in their next budget, happens every election!

On the tax point the people of Hartlepool would likely not be effected by tax hikes as it’ll be the people earning a lot more than them. At any rate taxes would have to rise eventually with all the issues created by brexit and the 10 years of Tory austerity.

Posted by: Smint 6th April 2021, 09:56 AM

It sadly just shows the extraordinary success of the media demonising the opposition for everything but promoting the Conservatives at every opportunity. Plus of course stirring up divisions. Oldest trick in the book.

Posted by: Rooney 6th April 2021, 10:17 AM

I'm entirely dubious about tax hikes. Everyone is going to get a tax hike, the difference will be they might not be explicit as a tax rise. Certainly we've already got one with the income tax allowance frozen at both mid and lower bands after this year. This is only going to be the start.

Posted by: steve201 6th April 2021, 10:55 AM

I’m happy with tax hikes, it’s the price of living in a civilised society but it’s it the very rich pay f*** all compared to us paye people! It’s Laisse Faire for them most of the time.

Posted by: blacksquare 16th April 2021, 08:48 AM

Welp

Posted by: Iz 💀 16th April 2021, 09:10 AM

An outlier, probably, but that's not to downplay that it's bad. I have very little optimism that the local elections will go well for Labour.

Apparently the Greensill news has been getting a decent amount of cutthrough and Labour are going hard on an anti-Tory corruption message as a result so that might show up in the next few polls.

Posted by: Dill Doe 16th April 2021, 09:13 AM

29 +16 = 45%. Tory + Farage Fan Club = 46%

If the left weren't so fractured...

Posted by: Rooney 16th April 2021, 09:30 AM

It will be interesting to see how the Greensill stuff plays out. By a fluke Labour have come on to something as just as long as they're fairly squeaky clean with vetted interests then I think it could have an impact on the polls. Some more stuff about Hancock has come out and I suspect this is going to be a running story just as long as it has legs. Will be interesting to see if anything else comes out.

Whatever happened it was always fairly likely Labour are going to get a battering at the local elections. Culmination of factors and the smaller parties always tend to do better too.

Posted by: Smint 16th April 2021, 09:48 AM

I think the biggest problem is that so many people absolutely worship Johnson and call him Boris and think he's a "man of the people" and not woke etc... Starmer has no personality whatsoever. Where Johnson has been smart though is that he has been more serious about covid this year even pissing off many on the right wing of his party who would lift restrictions yesterday. So he won't lose many 'competence' points at the moment which was beginning to happen last year when Labour had the odd okish lead.

I really dislike him and think the culture wars they are brewing will make this country unsafe for a lot of minorities - it has already happened in some communities. But they've got a winning strategy and they'll stick to it. Starmer should be replaced - he's failed. And seriously yes Labour + LD + Green need to formally make a pact with each other, get a progressive force with some momentum.

Posted by: Quarantilas 16th April 2021, 10:00 AM

Should focus the minds for Holyrood

Posted by: Botchia 16th April 2021, 11:53 AM

The Tories are getting an expected bounce from vaccine rollout / re-opening the economy. I don't think we should read too much into it yet.

Hopefully the ongoing corruption news will balance that back in Labour's favour over the next few weeks.

Whatever happens, Labour will probably suffer in the local elections and hopefully that will focus minds going forward that Keir Starmer's current approach simply isn't cutting through and that last year's gains were probably more down to dissatisfaction with the government's handling on the pandemic rather than satisfaction with Labour.

Posted by: common sense 16th April 2021, 12:19 PM

Hey I strongly object to you calling us clowns. It's those who think we should be still in the restrictive evil EU who are the real clowns.

Posted by: Dill Doe 16th April 2021, 12:50 PM

The corrupt, conniving, aristocrstic tories are the evil ones here ... not the democratic EU. Btw, ALL trading blocs demand compliance with their regulations to trade with them lol. Lil England is no longer a world power. It has to play by the grown-ups' rules, just like e everybody else.

Posted by: Rooney 16th April 2021, 01:13 PM

The idea of replacing Starmer is pretty mad though, who do you replace him with? There is a dearth of talent in Labour and internally the Party will throw different factions under the bus. Not sure a progressive allegiance will win back the seats the Party needs or plays to where Labour could go with winning back its support in the heartlands. The problem I always find and no matter who it is, the country is way too London/South-Centric. Even the likes of Momentum who are prominent don't have a clue what it's like on the whole to live in the North, especially away from the major cities.

Posted by: Smint 16th April 2021, 01:24 PM

Well if the party is South centric, Labour is doing a poor job of getting seats there outside London and a few university cities. I do think you need someone who is inspiring - Starmer is not that person and is too calculating. I must admit that I can't think of an obvious successor- there are few great MPs who I would deeply love to PM, Clive Lewis, Roseena Allin Khan for example and I do love some of the newer younger ones such as Nadia Whittome and Zarah Sultana. But I doubt that any of them would cut through with the electorate. Maybe Andy Burnham?

I don't see why a progressive alliance wouldn't work as the right wing have no problem uniting when need be. They just need to be bolder and believe in themselves a bit more.

Posted by: Rooney 16th April 2021, 01:58 PM

Not Party Centric, the Country is London/South Centric. As much as the Tories don't help that problem, they've at least begun to recognise there is more that can be done in the North. That's a wider problem, not just related to Labour. The problem I have is the idea that if Labour suddenly shifts to the Left it's going to win them elections is fantasy stuff. There is a lot more to be done than just appeasing the liberal, progressive middle classes. The only way Labour are going to get in the power unless the Tories self-destruct their massive majority is by appealing to Conservative voters. As shite as it is, voters want lower immigration than we had in the 2000s.

All the better Labour MPs are in cushy Mayoral positions right now and I can't see them running in the future. Burnham seems completely bitten after his terrible performance in 2015.

Posted by: common sense 16th April 2021, 02:03 PM

I'd go for Andy Burnham as next leader, looking at who's available now.

Posted by: Smint 16th April 2021, 02:23 PM

Well economically it could be argued that the Tories are planning some psuedo redistributive policies including raising corporation tax etc but I think they will look after their well heeled mates when it comes to it. And Labour were closest to winning in 2017 - albeit still pretty far away.

I personally don't think I could support a party that demonises the young, whitewashes racism reports, throws trans people under the bus and imply that waving flags will solve all the problems. The USA have just elected a President who certainly appears progressive and liberal and puts our country to shade (I know economically they've got a huge way to go to be considered anything like fair).

It worries me when Labour tries to mimic the Tories - it means that they can go even more xenophobic as the Overton window on social issues/progressivity goes to the right and dangerous territory.

Posted by: Iz 💀 16th April 2021, 03:03 PM

Two things, there are seats in the south that Labour could pick up due to changing demographics and progressive politics, not too many right now granted, but the likes of Chingford, Uxbridge and Esher may well be more solidly progressive and go to either Liberals or Labour in a few cycles depending on how far ideologically the Tories continue on. Just as places like Colorado in the US have been trending more solidly Democrat and were just as big a part of Biden's victory as winning the Rust Belt, it'll be places like that that'll be a part of a future Labour victory. Just as much if not more so than Bishop Auckland, Bolsover or Mansfield. So keeping Labour's current core voters is important.

The other, Labour going left to me doesn't mean going more progressive socially. Its current stance is pretty much hard-wired in there. It means being tougher on businesses and corporate greed, populist in the sense of appealing to workers, well, labour, the things the party was founded for. There's a lot to be said for fighting against the London-centric model and it is a bit of an own goal that Starmer is very much a Westminster/London elite placement. If Labour seeks to win back the northern voters, then picking up on their distrust of the establishment and yes, heaven forbid, going a little populist, could well bring them back onside. If they're sticking with Starmer though, they need to start following the Biden playbook, include the left policies without making them too front and center. Just occasional reaffirmations that the man still believes in the pledges he was elected on would be enough.

Posted by: Iz 💀 16th April 2021, 03:12 PM

anyway, that one is an outlier, always wait for Survation

Posted by: Dill Doe 16th April 2021, 04:01 PM

A little reminder that Cprbyn picked up Tory seats in the south east that were basically rotten boroughs and had NEVER changed hands x

Posted by: Envoirment 16th April 2021, 04:57 PM

I was going to say... The Greens being up to 8% seemed a bit too good to be true! It's a shame we don't have proportional representation and likely never will. It would likely stop the conservatives ever getting into power.

Hopefully the survation increase for Labour is a sign of things to come with the lobbying scandal and Keir Starmer actually playing the opposition on it.

Posted by: Dill Doe 16th April 2021, 05:29 PM

Hopefully Labour now know how to attack the Tories: their stinking, vile corruption and the elite all being in it together! Combine that with attacking their austerity and quietly promoting left policies, without focusing on it so that the neoliberal, classist British state doesn't work itself up into a propaganda frenzy, and attacking Tory incompetence, and they have a way forward, even with Steir.

Posted by: common sense 16th April 2021, 05:45 PM

You're like a stuck record Michael.

Posted by: steve201 16th April 2021, 10:09 PM

Yes thankfully something non-brexit/covid that Starmer has instructed the shadow cabinet to go big on how tory sleaze is still the same as the 90s.

Posted by: steve201 16th April 2021, 10:13 PM

You could argue the only time Labour have EVER got into power is when the tories eat each other after long periods in office. So whats the points in trying to mimic them and why not challenge the system and change it for the better similar to like they did in 1945. Look how much better the country became when that did actually happen. It became more equal, more compassionate, more moral and less poor. I know it might not come natutrally to a centrist/centre right person but some of the things in the system do need to change to help everyone move on together or we will forever be in the old boom and bust bootm rung growth phase of the post 2005 era.

Posted by: Dill Doe 16th April 2021, 10:28 PM

It is a disgusting party and authoritarian clown Blojo is the worst of it.

Posted by: Rooney 16th April 2021, 10:32 PM

Things won't change though with the current system. It's near enough impossible I'd say unless you have a truly populist leader, which I don't think is going tp happen anytime soon. There definitely needs to be change, I 100% agree on that point. But what I think a lot of people fail to realise, is that for the change to work you actually need to work together and compromise on principles to win the electorate. This is a major problem I have with Momentum, who would love control of the Labour Party but would never actually get elected because they can't ever compromise so they're never going to gain power where it matters.

The polling seems all over the place right now, it's hard to know where we really are. Will be interesting once normality begings to form a bit of semblence again, that's when we will really know where Labour and the Tories stand with the electorate.

Posted by: Dill Doe 16th April 2021, 10:40 PM

And yet had the CENTRISTS not sabotaged Labour - this is a fact - then Momentum and Corbyn would have won vs a buoyed Tory Brexshit vote x The Tories and the neoliberal British state were TERRIFIED of momentum and Corbyn, and had entire lectures at their conferences - packed to the brim - about how the argument was being won by the left. How quickly we centrists forget!

Posted by: steve201 16th April 2021, 11:05 PM

I agree with your points but disagree it takes a populaist leader to bring that change about and again history shows it. You need systematic change and cultural change in institutions and economics which pave the way for political change like in 1945. The old system has to be so discredited that it becomes inevitable and the two major events this century have been the 2008 crash and the fallout including MPs expenses and then corona virus, they will combined tip the system to create change. So its not politicans its events in my thesis.

Posted by: Rooney 16th April 2021, 11:44 PM

Momentum and Corbyn have never won an election though and nor were they ever likely to. Yes your can point to 2017 as I suspect you will, a manifesto which was actually largely written by the liberal left before Momentum got their sticky fingers involved, but completely ignore the 2019 election. Conferences and small rallies are not the elctorate!




But how do we shift under the current system? I think it is almost impossible, especially with Labour losing any sort of vote in Scotland and now their Heartlands. I totally agree the Expenses scandal left a very sour taste and this was compounded with the Crash with Labour took the immediate brunt for. But the problem now is it is relly impossible for Labour to get back in to power unless they shift to become more conservative under the current FPTP system.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 17th April 2021, 12:10 AM

That YouGov poll may have been an outlier, but the trend is there to see...

Mostly vaccine rollout related though tbh

Posted by: Dill Doe 17th April 2021, 11:40 AM

Again, left wing policies were EXTREMELY popular and got Corbyn more votes than Blair. Stop blaming the left for the entire British STATE attacking Corbyn maniacally and destroying him. Combine that with Brexshit and there you have 2019. It wasn't the left. I know you centrists would looove that to be the case, but the centre's dead. Look at the Lib Dems. The only way the centrists beat Bernie was by conniving- sound familiar? - and forcing Buttiege and Amy out the race and keeping Warren in. There were massive disparities between the exit polls and the "real" data later, too, always in favour of Biden. This is after the DNC defended its actions vs Bernie in 2016, sayong that primaries were not in the constitution, it could do what it wanted, and there was no need for there to even BE primaries, when the DNC is perfectly within its rights to just wheel out its candidate from the smoky boardrooms and say, here. Biden then struggled to beat Trump. Bernie, meanwhile, is the most popular poltiican in the US and was polling well ov3r 10% more than Trump and taking all swing states but Florida. The centrists screamed about thia, only to handily lose Florida themselves...

If the Labour centrists had got behind Corbyj in 2017, hadn't tried to dethrone him for Angela bloody Eagle, hadn't sabotaged the election then guess what? We would have Corbyn RIGHT NOW. We were 2k votes fron a progressive coalition 2k. They were close. Centrists ruined it. Thanks for brexshit and Blojo, centrists!

Posted by: Iz 💀 17th April 2021, 11:50 AM

I mean, Corbyn still would have implemented Brexit, just with probably less corruption, instability in NI and other things that look immediately wrong.

Yeah, 2017 does prove that it's possible for left policies to be within a fighting chance - and to get millions more votes than an embattled Labour, when angled correctly and not up against something else like a culture-defining moment like Brexit + a press that realises how close they got last time and can fire up the manufacturing consent machine.

Starmer would be ideal for the left if he were hiding his power level until he got into office. I don't know if he is, the evidence every week suggests not. But without that enthusiasm, a damp squib Miliband or Kinnock-esque failure of a centre campaign is just as possible and in fact looking far more likely. Basically, the Labour Party needs to chill about which faction is in charge and not go so hard on purity-testing in EITHER direction and instead come out with something that they can stand for, that has a competent team willing to stand behind it. The Telegraph will still make up deranged shit about the party no matter what, in fact they did so this very week, but not all the press will do, and they're willing to back Starmer as the competent one on evidence, he just needs to have actions that deserve it.

Posted by: Rooney 17th April 2021, 02:01 PM

Any coalition in 2017 would have fallen apart though, I think we have different opinions of what the left is or at least that I am referring to. But you fail to address the clusterfuk of 2019, as by this point Momentum and their ilk had their grubby fingers everywhere that led to a completely bonkers mainfesto which missed the trick with the electorate. The problem Corbyn had, is many people like his polcies, but not the person. So no matter how good your policies are they are never going to get through to the elctorate. Yes, left wing economic policies are very popular I am not arguing that at all.

The problem I have Michael, is that anyone who immeditely is not pure left in their idelogy by hardcore Corbynities are immeditely branded Centrists and Blairites. So before you know it you have a lot of people who have a left leaning idelogy being slaughtered as a Centrist or a Tory. The Centrists are the swing voters and ultimately decide the election.

Posted by: steve201 17th April 2021, 06:36 PM

I think you show your clear bias in the way you describe Momentum in the point above. I also would say JC doesn’t have charisma but he is a nice person. Also the arguenent here is what is the centre? For you Roo it’s the establishment neoliberal economic system that secures the wealth in the hands of the few for me the neoliberal system has failed and monopolies have created the current corrupt and wealth hoarding system in the hands of too few people and therefore the centre is now to the left of where you think it is. The only way the right has of opposing this is by beginning culture wars and that’s what happened in 2019, things didn’t change THAT much in 2 years

Posted by: Rooney 17th April 2021, 07:14 PM

I'm not biased against them, I despise them How a non-affiliated group got so much power within Labour is an absolute travesty. Corbyn is a nice person, but he was not a politician. He lacked the ability to compromise and was far too stubborn. He also allowed way too many bad influences to get high positions with his back office who were more aligned to their own agendas rather than the Party's agenda.

Culture Wars is a part of 2019, but this is where Labour failed. We don't want a culture war, the Tories always solidify their support when this happens. The Centre means different things to different people, but my point mainly is to different people it means different things. But ultimately for Labour to get back in power they need to win some of the Centrists back, no matter the difference of opinion of what a Centrist is.

Posted by: Dill Doe 17th April 2021, 07:44 PM

Preach!!!!

Posted by: steve201 17th April 2021, 07:57 PM

The problem with JC is he isn’t a leader he left the control to other people in his team and hated confrontation to the point where nothing got done .

Why do you dispise Momentum they are a pressure group like many others in the party same as every political party. Maybe you should just admit you don’t believe in their views . Do you believe Progress should have been as powerful in the post 1997 era?

Posted by: Rooney 17th April 2021, 08:58 PM

I don't mind pressure groups, they are part of politics. What I don't like is non-affiliated pressure groups which run the Party. Neither are affiliated to Labour and were born out of it. The problem I have is (at least when it formed) a lot of the Leadership of Momentum are not Labour supporters, they just seized the opportunity to take control of the Party. The affiliates are more interested in pure ideology rather than focusing on the task at hand. Momentum got way too much power and pretty much ended up running the Labour Party and becoming anti-democractic. But that's ok, it's only Tories that don't allow free speech

Posted by: Dill Doe 17th April 2021, 10:36 PM

None of this makes any sense.

Posted by: Rooney 17th April 2021, 11:08 PM

Momentum are crap, Progress are crap. Pressure groups that have way too much influence are crap. Momentum is not interested in the Labour Party. Plenty of evidence out there that their leadership is anti-democratic, but that’s ok as only Tories can be anti-democratic!

Posted by: Dill Doe 17th April 2021, 11:40 PM

And yet Momentum got Labour faaar closer to power than any centrist, got huge rallies, and helped to popularise Corbyn - pre media and state hysteria - and was made up of everyday people.

Posted by: Rooney 17th April 2021, 11:57 PM

They also inflicted the worst Labour performance since 1935. But let's forget about that because about 2,000 turned up to some rally in Islington.

Not quite sure I agree with Corbyn's popularised narrative, I'm fairly certain with the electorate he had consistently terrible approval ratings. Labour did well, but Corbyn was not popular.

Posted by: steve201 18th April 2021, 11:36 AM

But there’s pressure groups in all parties so I don’t get the annoyance with them in particular except that you don’t agree with their viewpoint. I also don’t know if there’s any actual evidence of their lack of democracy I would obviously argue that they brought a lot of different people from different marginal groups into the party and made them involved in politics which can only be a good thing. Labour had the biggest membership of any political party in Europe and the PLP just treated them with disdain because they threatened the real people who most of the PLP stand for or are lobbied by.

Posted by: Rooney 18th April 2021, 09:38 PM

They were a newly formed pressure group made up of people who had never voted Labour and less than a couple of years later they were pretty much running the party! That is dangerous and not something I agree with. Also with the anto-democracy stuff, just check what they instructed their members to do for the Leadership contest - it was RLB or no-one. Fair enough if you have a preferred candidate, but give people the choice to vote and don't say it's this or nothing. I can't agree with that either.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 18th April 2021, 10:22 PM

Momentum have some brilliant people behind them and some great ideas about how to change the world- but I'm uncomfortable with the way that they operate. A good democratic movement should be about building consensus and not just shutting down the voices of those whose opinions you disagree with.

Sorry if there are any Momentum members here who disagree but that's how I feel, and why I never joined despite sharing a lot of their values and ideas.

Posted by: steve201 19th April 2021, 09:48 AM

So you think that bringing people into political debate is dangerous? It’s like all groups there loads of opinions, in NI the civil rights campaign in the 60s had people from all backgrounds and none including former IRA men and communists, doesn’t mean they aren’t allowed a say in discourse.

Posted by: blacksquare 19th April 2021, 10:03 AM

Similar issues to me, but I do think that can be fixed and reformed rather than Momentum ceasing to exist anymore — like some suggest.

I have only ever had positive experiences with Momentum when canvassing in 2017 and 2019 but that was mostly due to being with likeminded volunteers who were passionate and wanted to help out.

Posted by: Dill Doe 19th April 2021, 11:04 AM

And yet they did so with FAR HIGHER number of voters. This defeat was caused by the MASS HYSTERIA propaganda from the ENTIRE British state, including the BBTory. What happened is that the mass propaganda over two years cut through, plus Tory Brexshit. They still gor more votes than Blair in his 2nd or 3rd term lol. Even Blair would have been destroyed by those conditions.

Posted by: steve201 19th April 2021, 11:58 AM

So again when Labour did well under JC it was the party when they did anything wrong it was all on the party leader....🤔 seems to be a narrative developing here.

Posted by: Dill Doe 19th April 2021, 12:49 PM

A very right-wing centrist narrative. Remember Rooney, you never liked Corbyn. You supported weak and wobbly authoritarian-wannabe May over him!! It is only natural that you would blame him and the left for things we could not control.

Posted by: Rooney 19th April 2021, 04:17 PM

You're right I didn't like Corbyn, I lost a lost of respect for him during the 2016 EU Referendum when he sat on his fat arse and did not get behind his Party and commit for Remain, which is what the Labour Party stands for. He allowed himself to be manipulated by other people who only served to seek their own agendas and for all of the crap that he is a staunch socialist, he was still part of the "jobs for the boys" and nepotism. I don't like how he was painted to be the Messiah by Momentum, when he was far from it. But look- that is a whole different debate.

The fact is he delivered a great campaign in 2017. I don't think anyone is denying that. The problem is he got rid of most of the people who delivered his great campaign and allowed himself to be influenced by other people. Didn't UKIP get 4 million votes in 2015 or something like that, what did that achieve them in our current system? Feck all. The defeat in 2019 was awful and was not due to "BBTory" or anything. It was because Corbyn walked in a trap that he was not prepared for and he was disliked by the electorate.

Posted by: steve201 19th April 2021, 05:56 PM

He stood as a remainer in the referendum even though he has suspicions of the Eu and has his whole career. Do you know that Labour HQ and the people who run the party did exactly the same throughout his whole time as leader. They barely lifted a finger during the election campaigns and put their effort into safe seats only. They also said some of the most awful things to Him and any of his supporters from the very first PLP meeting in Sept 2015!

Posted by: Suedehead2 19th April 2021, 06:27 PM

Electing someone who had opposed EU membership for most of his career as leader just before a referendum on the subject was a spectacularly stupid idea. It was made to look an even worse idea when that leader then tried to make a virtue of the fact that he had not changed his mind one iota on any other subject in over 30 years as an MP.

Posted by: Dill Doe 19th April 2021, 07:02 PM

The neolibs despise anyone who dares upset their gravy train!

Posted by: steve201 19th April 2021, 09:02 PM

What was he ever wrong about in hindsight?

Posted by: Suedehead2 19th April 2021, 09:09 PM

There's a clue in my post.

Posted by: Rooney 19th April 2021, 09:21 PM

He didn't stand as a Remainer in the referendum, he did absolutely nothing. That's the point of Corbyn, he is not bigger than the Party. Whatever his own personal viewpoint (which he of course is entitled to) he should have been in the frontline towing the Party line. Not sitting on the fence throughout the whole time.

Posted by: Dill Doe 19th April 2021, 09:31 PM

He has always been a man of his principles.

Posted by: steve201 19th April 2021, 09:53 PM

Not really you don’t agree with his view on it doesn’t mean he’s wrong.

What about the many other issues - apartheid, NI, the economy, Iraq!

Posted by: steve201 19th April 2021, 09:55 PM

He did though check out the speeches he made in the campaign, maybe not enough for you or the baying remainer media but he did and as I said above he was hounded and the PLP and staffers did the complete opposite on all the other issues when he was leader!

Posted by: Dill Doe 19th April 2021, 10:01 PM

He only lost the Red Wall - despite the constant media haranguing - when the centrists forced him to take a remain position. Aaand then Blojo and Cummings made it into a Brexshit election.

Posted by: Rooney 19th April 2021, 10:13 PM

Yes, which is all very noble when you are a backbencher but not when you're the Leader of the Opposition.



The Red Wall has slowly been chipped away at for years, it all began to rear its head with the 2015 election under Milliband and things only got worse. Corbyn did not have to agree to an election, the wise move would have been to hold off, but he walked straight in to a trap. Yes, totally a large element of people (myself included) misjudged the wider electorate in terms of a 2nd Referendum. I'd say the wider move on this part was the inability of Labour, Lib Dems and Greens to work together in certain seats to at least attempt to counterbalance the Tories and Brexit Party. That is a failing of the Corbyn for being unable and unwilling to work with other parties to stop the Tories.

Posted by: Dill Doe 19th April 2021, 10:15 PM

He got forced into entering that trap thanks to The Giant Ego in charge of the Lib Dems. The SNP wanted one for their independence mandate to avoid Brexshit. It was all on the Lib Dems to stop it from happening. Labour could NOT be the only hold out, hence the trap.

Posted by: Rooney 19th April 2021, 10:16 PM

Great speeches on the campaign to his followers and fans. I'd expect that from most people. Where was he during all the TV debates? It took him way too long to decide what to do. He did not engage enough with people, at least not to the level the Leader of the Opposition should be doing.

Posted by: steve201 19th April 2021, 10:18 PM

I would t have worked with other parties either especially not the Lib Dems who imposed austerity on working class communities between 2010-15 and then wanted a second ref in 2019!

Posted by: steve201 19th April 2021, 10:20 PM

He spoke to remainer rallies

Posted by: Harve 19th April 2021, 10:44 PM

The electorate forced him to take a remain position after his party got *14%* in the May 2019 elections.

Posted by: Rooney 19th April 2021, 10:46 PM

Exactly, which just proves my point. Not willing to compromise or look at the bigger picture - a large reason why Labour performed so terribly at the 2019 elections. Won the moral argument, but lost the one that history remembers. In an election which everyone knew would be about Brexit, the Leader of the Opposition was so bloody stubborn he couldn't work with other parties aligned to the single same issue the entire election was decided on!



Attended to by people who would vote Remain.. where was he during the TV debates? Absolutely nowhere as it took him months to decide what to do!

Posted by: Dill Doe 19th April 2021, 10:47 PM

You mean because of The Giant Ego screaming that she could never work with Corbyn? And you're shocked that he couldn't work with her? Oh dear!

Posted by: steve201 20th April 2021, 01:32 PM

I dont think it did really he stood as leader of a pro remain party but has had major doubts about the EU project since its foundation in the 1970s. Theres nothing wrong with that for me. He certainly worked alot harder on that than his PLP or staffers in Labour HQ did at any point that he was leader.

Posted by: Rooney 20th April 2021, 01:44 PM

I can't agree with that, no person is bigger than the Party of Institution which they represent. Corbyn had major doubts about the formation of the EU, that is fine. The Labour Party did not have serious doubts. On a single, massive issue Corbyn should not have allowed his own personal preference to tow over the Party Line and membership which were Pro-EU for the majority.

Posted by: steve201 20th April 2021, 06:17 PM

But he didnt he still campaigned for remain. The debate here is how hard he should have campaigned

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th April 2021, 09:36 PM

Your comment suggested that he had been proved right in all cases. That certainly doesn't apply to his long-held views on EU membership.

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th April 2021, 09:37 PM

The "baying remainder media"? You must see different versions of the Sun, Mail, Express etc from the ones we see.

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th April 2021, 09:39 PM

If she, as a leader of a party with 12 MPs, was able to force the Labour leader into doing something against his wishes, perhaps she was justified in having an ego.

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th April 2021, 09:40 PM

Yet the Lib Dems were prepared to work with a party that led us into Iraq.

Posted by: Suedehead2 20th April 2021, 09:42 PM

This has been said many times before but I'll try again.

THE TORY REBELS REFUSED EVEN TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF WORKING WITH CORBYN. JO SWINSON'S VIEWS ON THE MATTER THEREFORE BECAME IRRELEVANT.

Posted by: Dill Doe 20th April 2021, 09:52 PM

They were INCREDIBLY important. If the Lib Dems could have worked with Corbyn, the pressure would have been on for thr neoliberal Tory rebels to support a limited Corbyn government.

Posted by: steve201 20th April 2021, 10:42 PM

You make a case that the Liberals are somehow so different from the Tory party and above the Labour Party in terms of integrity when we all know that the liberals are just tories with sandals on, history and their positions show that. Some of them joined Labour when they took over the libs between 1918-82 but that’s it!

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st April 2021, 06:36 AM

You mean the history of the LibLab pact, the Lab/Lib Dem coalition in Scotland and the current Lab / Lib Dem administration in Wales?

Posted by: steve201 21st April 2021, 11:54 AM

No the general history of the Liberals being a light blue Tory party.

Posted by: Smint 21st April 2021, 12:09 PM

I agree with that assessment - Swinson demonising of Corbyn when only working with him could have been a route to stop Brexit was one of the biggest betrayals that I have ever known. The pro EU party enabling the hardest Brexit.

However, that all said, even if Swinson plus Corbyn plus Sturgeon plus PC and Green had done a coalition for the December 2019 due to the electoral system and the insane media onslaught I still think the Tories would have won the election (especially if Farage's lot had done a full-fat pact).

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st April 2021, 06:31 PM

Ah, you mean like my neighbouring council in Lewes where the Lib Dems agreed a deal with Greens and Independents to keep the Tories out. Or Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole where I used to live and a similar thin happened - until two Independents died and the Tories used the ban in byelections to seize power for themselves?


You mean the deal Labour voted for? The one the Lib Dems voted against?

Corbyn himself never showed the slightest interest in cooperating with other parties. He refused to share a platform with other parties in the referendum. he refused even to discuss any sort of electoral arrangement with Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Greens.

Posted by: Dill Doe 21st April 2021, 06:37 PM

He refused because The Giant Ego was obstinate and hated Corbyn, refusing to work with Labour unless they removed him. Let's sum that up: a neoliberal, terridied of leftism, demanding that, undemocratically, the party remove a man overwhelming elected - twice - as leader of the party over the neoliberals' fools of choice. This id all on thr Lib Dems. They need to own it.

Posted by: steve201 21st April 2021, 07:56 PM

Fair play but their values overall are peddling around the middle of the road of the centre TINA economic viewpoint. In the example you give above(of which I’m certain there are more examples of) it’s merely out of local interests to get into power.

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st April 2021, 08:22 PM

Oh, how terrible. A political party that wants to be able to implement its policies. Your comment sums up what is wrong with so many on the Corbynite wing of the Labour party - they give the impression that they would prefer to be ideologically pure in opposition than make compromises in power. In doing so, they ignore the fact that the people who suffer from a Tory government are precisely the people the Labour party was formed to protect.

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st April 2021, 08:23 PM

Why do so many people dismiss the Lib Dems as an irrelevance while, at the same time, blaming them for everything that has gone wrong in the last decade or so?

Posted by: steve201 21st April 2021, 08:29 PM

I didn’t say anything about ideological pureness I simply disagree with Liberal policies when it comes to the economy which are basically the same as the tories and the Labour right.

Posted by: Suedehead2 21st April 2021, 08:34 PM

Who cares what Liberal policies are? They haven't had an elected MP for decades.

Posted by: steve201 21st April 2021, 08:35 PM

😂 Liberal/Lib Dems/SDP-Liberal Alliance!!

Posted by: steve201 21st April 2021, 10:13 PM

This is an extract from a New Statesman article a read a few years ago which maybe highlights the circular arguement we are having here and even though I am on the side of the Bennite tradition it is a critic:


Nine years ago, a group of locals campaigned against a branch of Nando’s opening in the building previously occupied by a jazz club. For them, this was a fight against globalisation and “clone town Britain” and part of what one of described as the area’s “long history of non-conformism and dissent”. They didn’t stop the Nando’s, which is still there. So is the host of independent outlets the protesters wished to protect. At the time of my swimming class perambulations, Church Street’s cafes had begun selling luxurious cupcakes, which had just become popular in the patisserie market’s upscale enclaves. So ubiquitous were these delights, I could walk the whole length of Church Street without eating one and still feel as if I’d scoffed a whole box.

One day, looking for trouble, I pointed out on Twitter that the clientele of Nandos was far more representative of the population of Stoke Newington than those of the cupcake cafes. I knew this from experience. In Nandos, there were always children and people who weren’t white or middle-class. This was quite different from the cupcake cafes. A bearded man took me to task. He spoke up for one of the cupcake cafés, which we’ll call Lily’s. I played devil’s advocate for the chicken chain. Our exchange went something like this:

Bearded man: The food in Lily’s is really healthy. Not that mass-produced rubbish in Nando’s.

Me: I’m sure it is very healthy. But I’m talking about the customers’ diversity.

Bearded man: Nando’s doesn’t pay enough in taxes.

Me: I’ve read that. But I’m asking you about their clientele’s diversity.

Bearded man: Everyone is welcome at Lily’s Café.

Me: I’m sure they are. But my point is that, at present, Nando’s customers are more economically and ethnically diverse. Do you agree?

Bearded man: That corporate chain is destroying the community!

Me (losing patience): OK. Define “the community…”

I don’t know if Bearded Man was an admirer of Corbyn. But I submit that his response to my Twitter challenge revealed several things about the instincts that sustain the Corbynite vision at large. Here are three:

One: an automatic assumption that popular success, in whatever field, can only ever be deleterious, inauthentic and, despite appearances to the contrary, unattractive.

Two: a definition of the common good that risks excluding poorer and marginalised members of society, and might appear a bit presumptuous.

Three: an indignant deafness to inconvenient truths, in this case the obvious social fact that only a certain sort of Stoke Newington person is drawn to Church Street’s cupcake cafés, not “the community” as a whole.

This does not mean that those cafes – or indeed their cupcakes – are not nice. It does not mean that criticisms of Nando’s must be invalid. It does not mean there is no case for better protecting high street distinctiveness and variety. But it does mean that winning any argument along those lines needs to take on board the views and interests of people who may not share the same ones as you, and strike balances accordingly.

Perhaps the Bearded Man position is more nuanced that I’ve given it credit for. Whatever, it is a telling indicator of the pervasiveness and the resilience of values that informed the Corbynite insurgence and still sustain it.

Posted by: Iz 💀 26th April 2021, 11:20 AM

ask and ye shall receive



People are getting quite excited about this one though, because it has a five-point drop. Note that the fieldwork for this one was completed before the Cummings allegations started surfacing and there's another CON 44 / LAB 33 one out there that covers 21-23 Apr.

Could be an outlier but yay, more waiting for the next set of polls that take into account the latest government disaster.

Posted by: Dill Doe 26th April 2021, 11:39 AM

I don't believe we can dislodge this cabal of landed gentŕy chancers, ever, but there is a glimmet of hope here.

Posted by: steve201 26th April 2021, 12:17 PM

Maddening how after everything the headline is he’s down to 40%!

Posted by: Dill Doe 26th April 2021, 12:18 PM

That was before the headline! Wait.

Posted by: Botchia 26th April 2021, 12:26 PM

LIB DEM SURGE

Posted by: Envoirment 26th April 2021, 02:05 PM

It'll be interesting to see how the polling goes over the next few weeks. A number of events are happening which could further disapproval on the tories. The comment Boris made about bodies piling high, more info from Cummings and Boris has just said any donations for his flat renovation will be revealed.

Posted by: steve201 27th April 2021, 12:39 PM

New polling analysis and projection, Survation 20th - 22nd of April 2021

Holyrood seats projection:
SNP ~ 67
Labour ~ 25
Conservative ~ 21
Green ~ 10
Lib Dem ~ 6

Posted by: Dill Doe 27th April 2021, 03:15 PM

Omg the Scottish people GET IT

Posted by: steve201 27th April 2021, 06:25 PM

Indeed, imagine of the accusations by the Tories against Sturgeon hadnt have happened!

Posted by: Botchia 30th April 2021, 09:36 PM

This is why we always wait for Survation x

Posted by: Smint 30th April 2021, 09:51 PM

Oh wow plus the combined score of LAB,LD,GREEN and SNP is huge.

Posted by: Rooney 30th April 2021, 10:22 PM

The polls seem a bit all over the place at the moment - hard to tell if there difference is one of the extremes (1% or 11%) or somewhere in the middle. Guess we might know a little more next week.

Posted by: Botchia 1st May 2021, 12:31 PM

I think Survation and Ipsos tend to be the safest bets to take seriously based on their track record comparing their polls to the GE results in the 2010s? I'm sure it was Survation who had the closest final poll for the last three GEs.

If it was anyone other than Ipsos and Survation showing the smallest leads of Con +3 and Con +1 respectively, I'd probably think those polls were more likely to be outliers. The wide range certainly makes next week's local elections more interesting to see who is currently in the right range!

Posted by: steve201 14th May 2021, 06:52 PM

Tories 15 points ahead!

Posted by: Envoirment 15th May 2021, 02:01 PM

The Yougov poll:



Not surprising given the local election results and the reshuffling of the cabinet. Greens 3rd largest party with 8% in that poll!

Posted by: steve201 15th May 2021, 02:40 PM

Yeh glad the Greens are the third largest party now although a lot of that support will be concentrated in certain areas in a GE whereas the Liberal vote is more spread and so gain more seats.

Posted by: Dill Doe 16th May 2021, 04:26 PM

1labour shedding its left voters. Its core support is still suppressed due to Starmer not standing for anything.

Posted by: blacksquare 22nd May 2021, 11:17 AM

I would not be surprised to see Labour go lower at this point.

Posted by: Envoirment 22nd May 2021, 01:06 PM

Interested to see how high the conservatives will go. I have a feeling they may hit 50% when all restrictions are relaxed in June. I wouldn't be surprised if they call an early election for this year to try and get an even bigger majority...

Posted by: Quarantilas 22nd May 2021, 01:30 PM

This honestly fills me with fear.


The contrast with Scotland couldn’t be more stark

Posted by: Dill Doe 22nd May 2021, 02:01 PM

It's a one party state with Tory control over the media, or media control over the Tories, but whichever way, they're in bed together. You have the righr wing trolls EVERYWHERE, too, laughing at the elft and shouting ill-informed things about socialism ... even when Labour is now neoliberal. If they are going to claim you're socialist, you may as well BE socialist! Look at the USA. Bernie was a democratic socialist and Biden really right wing, but the election was fought on him being a "socialist"!!!!