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Posted by: sugabloke 23rd March 2016, 06:34 PM

By popular (i.e. Iz and Ryan) demand I bestow upon you, fair Eurovision Forum, the 2016 Prediciton Thread *.*

A few general pointers before we begin;

• Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think the UK will come last’ to full predictions of everyone’s positions with points and justifications essays.
• Come the morning of May 15th every single one of us who predicted in here will have egg on our faces to some degree. Last year was a relatively egg free year but if you want to have some retrospective hilarious reading then check the 2014 thread. Don't try and run away from predicting wrong and own your inaccuracies
• Everyone’s predictions are valid, but sometimes if people are being stupid and predicting PKN to come 2nd in the semi then I will be here to provide the slapping dahn!

Now, go forth and predict!

Posted by: Ryan. 23rd March 2016, 06:53 PM

Semi-Final One
01 Russia
02 Azerbaijan
03 Croatia
04 Iceland
05 The Netherlands
06 Hungary
07 Cyprus
08 Malta
09 Armenia
10 Bosnia & Herzegovina
11 Greece
12 Czech Republic
13 Estonia
14 Austria
15 Finland
16 Moldova
17 San Marino
18 Montenegro

Semi-Final Two
01 Ukraine
02 Serbia
03 Latvia
04 Australia
05 Lithuania
06 Norway
07 Romania
08 Bulgaria
09 F.Y.R. Macedonia
10 Denmark
11 Ireland
12 Belgium
13 Poland
14 Israel
15 Belarus
16 Slovenia
17 Albania
18 Switzerland
19 Georgia

Final
France 13th-17th
Germany 16th-20th
Italy 8th-12th
Spain 17th-21st
Sweden 1st-5th
United Kingdom 21st-25th

Posted by: Iz~ 24th March 2016, 05:14 PM

Prior to running order, so I'll have to do another one when that comes out but just based on halves and the strength of these songs...

Semi 1

Definites

01. Russia
02. Azerbaijan
03. Iceland

Russia and Azerbaijan are self-explanatory. I can't really see a situation where Iceland will fail either, in the second half, competently performed pop song and not lacking for Nordics.

Most likely through

04. Malta
05. Cyprus
06. Czech Republic
07. Finland

Malta is another competent pop song, should have few problems. Cyprus, there's nothing else like it and second half is fine. I think this'll be the year Czech Republic finally make it, ballads don't tend to have problems attracting votes and in the second half.. yeah it should be okay. And I think Finland will actually light up the first half full of fun rather well, I'm not seeing the definite DNQ calls for it. It's only when it gets to the final, especially if it gets put anywhere near Barei, that it'll look outclassed.

Could be through
08. Greece
09. Croatia
10. Armenia

Never count out Greece, even with the messiness of this song, I think they'll be through too. Armenia, I almost put this out because of how messy/shouty it is but it's quite tough for them to DNQ and it'll probably sneak in in the end. Starting to feel Croatia is a potential shock flop in a strong semi but for now with the odds like they are I'll have them scraping in.

Potential for upset
11. San Marino
12. Austria
13. Hungary
14. Estonia
15. Bosnia and Herzegovina
16. The Netherlands

San Marino, with the disco version, now seems to have the 'joke entry' niche nailed down. It might very well get close to qualifying and I wouldn't even be surprised if it were the 10th one announced. Austria, it might seem like an easy DNQ in a tough semi but I feel there's a real chance that jury power could see it in, I'm preparing for that not happening, but there's an equal chance it could in the second half. There is France voting in this semi. Hungary and Estonia I feel both suffer from the same sort of problem, deep voiced guys singing midtempos. One of them could qualify, Hungary has a slightly stronger song, Estonia has a slightly stronger position but I'd be surprised at both of them in. This is probably the year where Bosnia will get unstuck, it stands out but I think it'll just seem bizarre to most people outside of the Balkans. Country can so easily hit but I think Calm After The Storm was a one off and Netherlands won't be able to make this work unfortunately.

DOA
17. Moldova
18. Montenegro

Unless Moldova do a bang up job with the newest version, yeah. First half and the way they've been going the last few years, it's a shame for them. And I can't see any situation where Montenegro gets through this time.

Semi 2

Definites
01. Ukraine
02. Australia
03. Bulgaria
04. Latvia
05. Lithuania

Ukraine has had loads of media attention, Australia have one of the biggest raw power songs in a less competitive semi, Bulgaria have everything poised as going right for them, and Latvia are trading on the same thing as last year. Meanwhile, Lithuania have one of the most favourable set of neighbours they could ask for and with this song, no chance they're out.

Probably
06. Serbia
07. Norway
08. Denmark
09. Romania
10. Belgium

There's a lot of stuff here that could be borderline so I think picking from the second half seems sensible and I can easily see all of the above as qualifiers, even if they'd be less certain ones in another semi.

just out
11. Ireland
12. Slovenia
13. Poland

Slovenia could be quite fun and is in the second half, Poland has a 'nice song' that could do what Cyprus last year did, Ireland may just sneak through on "name power", but they're less likely than some other ones here.

Probably out
14. Macedonia
15. Georgia
16. Israel

Georgia have a strong song in the end but it's not what Eurovision voters vote on at all so they're probably out. Israel and Macedonia tend to have a tough time of it anyway and with both in the first half, they could easily be sacrificed. Not ruling out Kaliopi repeating what she did in 2012 but I think she has more of an uphill struggle this time.

DOA
17. Albania
18. Switzerland
19. Belarus

Switzerland never have luck do they. Albania I don't think have an instant enough song. And maybe I should be careful before declaring Belarus out but I think there's too much for him to overcome here.

Posted by: sugabloke 24th March 2016, 06:17 PM

Was planning on waiting until the running order was out but seeing as that might be a while, here's predictions 1.0 from me.

SEMI ONE

Definites

01 Russia
02 Iceland
03 Armenia


Russia and Armenia both have plenty of reliable friendly countries in the semi and good/effective song packages. Iceland's by far the most 'show stopping' number of the whole semi and in the second half with a pretty reliable qualification record so they're as good as through

Semi-Definites

04 Malta
05 Azerbaijan

Malta's a strong contemporary pop song and pretty much every corrupt jury is in this semi so they shouldn't have too much of a problem. Only thing stopping Azerbaijan being in the definite category is the fact that under the new system they would have DNQ'd last year with what, to me at least, should have got them safely through that semi so there's a small amount of doubt in my mind but the song is certainly strong enough.

Sneakers

06 Croatia
07 Czech Republic
08 Cyprus
09 Netherlands
10 Austria

To my mind there's eight songs fighting over five spots in the final. Croatia should have a strong jury support plus there's enough of a balkan/central Europe contingent that will go for them as well as countries like Sweden who generally appreciate a strong and simple package. This reasoning also applies tho the Czechs who should also probably be expecting the "Slovenia treatment" with the producers giving them a good draw to make sure they qualify and stay in the contest next year. Cyprus stands out pretty well as the one accessible rock number but I do wonder if a Turkey 2011 situation might be on the cards if they don't stage it well/are lacking the energy to really sell it. Netherlands should qualify on jury support since Trijntje bizzarely managed 5th in the juries last year despite that car crash of a stage show with what, on record at least, is a similar light americana mid-tempo number (so realistically Douwe Bob just has to not dress up like an Indian chiefton or in a black jumpsuit). Austria have a few neighbours and France voting as well as the fact that the semis are disproportionately voted on by fans/people who are expecting or know that they like the Eurovision Song Contest which I think is enough to squeeze a 10th place.

Just Missing Out

11 Greece
12 Hungary
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina

I think this is the year guys! Greece have Cyprus, Armenia, France, a few small diasporas elswehere...and that's it as far as friendly votes goes. Even considering that, they're first half with a rap song which 9 times out of ten is Eurovision kriptonite. I know people will say Watch My Dance to this but that at least had strong staging, was mostly in English, closed the semi and as rap songs go was far more accessible than this. Hungary I think will be completely overshadowed in the dramatic staging stakes by Armenia and the other strong male pop songs such as Cyprus and Russia. Bosnia has a lot of the same problems as Greece but with the added effect of less automatic points and generally being much more of a mess of a song anyway.

Not quite DOA

14 Finland
15 Estonia

There aren't actually that many big uptempo party songs this year so if they open the show or have any other kind of draw that is good to them then Finland could make it, BUT, the fact that it only came a distant third in its televote makes me doubt that it has the legs to do much in the Eurovision televote. Estonia sounds like the sort of thing that ordinarily would get lapped up by juries but by the end of 18 songs I think they'll mostly have been forgotten. I don't think the moody Stig Rasta jazzy lightning is going to strike twice.

DOA

16 San Marino
17 Moldova
18 Montenegro

San Marino can probably leapfrog to 3rd last thanks to some "helpful" juries and the disco revamp (You might not be able to polish a turd but you can roll it in glitter!) Moldova and Montenegro will have their fans and Moldova might have been able to qualify out of semi 2 but I can't see them getting enough love from either juries, the public or potentially both.

~~~

Semi 2 predix coming at some point over the Easter Weekend because what else better have I got to do over a bank holiday?

Posted by: ScottyEm 24th March 2016, 07:54 PM

In no particular order, I predict:

Semi 1

Russia (they will win this)
Azerbaijan
Croatia
Iceland
Hungary
Cyprus
Malta
Armenia
Bosnia/Herzegovina
Moldova (I think it can sneak in)

Semi 2

Latvia (they will win this)
Serbia
Ukraine
Romania
Australia
Lithuania
Norway
Bulgaria
Belgium

I can't decide on a 10th so I'm plucking in the air here:

Macedonia

Posted by: sugabloke 24th March 2016, 10:56 PM

Remember how I promised to give you Semi 2 over the weekend? well surprise motherfuckers it's here already!

SEMI TWO

Definites

01 Ukraine
02 Latvia
03 Lithuania

All of these have strong songs and/or neighbour voting in this semi so I'd be shocked if any of these didn't get through (Lithuania in particular have qualified with far worse).

Semi-Definites

04 Bulgaria
05 Serbia
06 Romania
07 Australia

Only thing stopping Bulgaria being in the definite category is their questionable record. Serbia and Romania have strong diasporas and good songs so should both be through with relative ease. Australia is being overrated by fans a touch and without Australia being a novelty in Eurovision I doubt the televote will be as strong as their jury vote but it should still be enough to qualify.

Sneakers

08 Norway
09 Belgium
10 Ireland

If we were talking semi final one then I'd think all of these three wouldn't make it but alas. Norway's tempo change isn't quite as jarring live and they'll have enough appeal to jury and to the west to get through but I wouldn't be surprised if they added another entry to their last places. Belgium doesn't really have any other joly party song to contend with, especially in the second half which should make it memorable enough to get a qualification. Ireland should sneak a 10th based on name recognition and some points from the baltic and scandi contingents in the semi and then not do very much at all in the Final.

Just Missing Out

11 Israel
12 Macedonia

Israeli ballads have been a bit hit and miss at Eurovision but I think 'Made of Stars' is appealing enough to at least contend for qualification. I'd initally put Macedonia in the 'sneakers' group but being first half and with probably most of the ex-Yugo votes going to Serbia who have a far stronger song than them and it being nowhere near as good at being able to show off Kaliopi's voice, I think that's enough going against it to knock it to twelfth. Still, if one of Norway/Belgium/Ireland falters then I can very easily see one of these two taking their place instead.

Not quite DOA

13 Denmark
14 Poland
15 Slovenia
16 Albania

Poland and Albania have at least decent diasporas in this semi and Denmark and Slovenia have songs in the second half who could get through by virtue of being 'nice' and middle of the road but they'd all need other countries to majorly mess it up to be in with a shot which is leaving too much to chance.

DOA

17 Belarus
18 Switzerland
19 Georgia

Not even wolves and nudity can get Belarus to 10th, Switzerland's potential vote pool is being absorbed by all the other powerful females and I don't think Thursday night at the Eurovision Song Contest is the market for...whatever it is that Georgia is categorised as.

Posted by: sugabloke 24th March 2016, 11:01 PM

And since Ryan did it:

France: 14th
Germany: 23rd
Italy: 21st
Spain: 5th
Sweden: 3rd
United Kingdom: 24th

Posted by: Qassändra 24th March 2016, 11:42 PM

Sweden are winning by a mile (and I have £30 on said outcome, as any self-respecting definitive prediction ought to - LOOKING AT YOU MICHAEL).

Posted by: J▲hq 25th March 2016, 01:20 AM

QUOTE(Qassändra @ Mar 24 2016, 11:42 PM)

Posted by: Umi 25th March 2016, 02:16 AM

QUOTE(sugabloke @ Mar 24 2016, 11:01 PM)

Posted by: Iz~ 25th March 2016, 11:48 AM

I can see Barei coming in a solid mid-table. I'm expecting a fair amount low points across the board for it. It's been doing fairly well for a Eurovision song on Spotify, hasn't it? But despite that, I still see Italy doing the best of the big 5.

Posted by: Qassändra 25th March 2016, 12:55 PM

I can see Barei failing utterly miserably and coming bottom three. It's a genre not well suited to the Eurovision stage, let alone with long instrumental breaks with nothing to fill them other than MINCING ABOUT, and that second verse really is DIABOLICALLY ENDLESS. It isn't a tight pop song at all, but it's not trying to be anything other than a pop song. A song you might listen to at home or on the radio, but one that I think will go very, very badly on the night.

Posted by: sugabloke 25th March 2016, 01:59 PM

QUOTE(Umi @ Mar 25 2016, 02:16 AM)

Posted by: ScottyEm 25th March 2016, 05:43 PM

I agree Spain is probably the most difficult one to predict. I reckon it'll be a fanboy favourite but probably slips into the bottom 10.... Sadly, as I love it too.

Posted by: AdamAloud 28th March 2016, 04:31 PM

Was going to wait for the running order, but here goes nothing!

Semi 1
01. Russia
02. Iceland
03. Azerbaijan
04. Malta
05. Croatia
06. Cyprus
07. Armenia
08. Bosnia & Herzegovina
09. Greece
10. The Netherlands
---
11. Hungary
12. Czech Republic
13. Austria
14. Estonia
15. Moldova
16. Finland
17. Montenegro
18. San Marino

Realistically the only 2 I'm 100% on not seeing in the final are Montenegro & San Marino. I can't remember such a close semi in terms of potential qualifiers.

Semi 2
01. Ukraine
02. Lithuania
03. Latvia
04. Bulgaria
05. Australia
06. Norway
07. Denmark
08. Serbia
09. Belgium
10. Romania
---
11. Poland
12. Israel
13. Macedonia
14. Ireland
15. Slovenia
16. Switzerland
17. Belarus
18. Albania
19. Georgia

On the other hand, only the top 6 here feel like finalists, the rest are lucky they're not in semi 1.

Posted by: Ryan. 8th April 2016, 11:50 PM

Semi-Final One
01 Russia
02 Azerbaijan
03 Iceland
04 Malta
05 Croatia
06 Bosnia & Herzegovina
07 Armenia
08 The Netherlands
09 Cyprus
10 Estonia
11 Hungary
12 Czech Republic
13 Greece
14 Finland
15 Austria
16 Moldova
17 San Marino
18 Montenegro

I've stuck with a Russia and Azerbaijan top 2, with Iceland now up to third with their very helpful running order slot and surely what will be one of the stand-out stage shows. Malta's position will now be inflated with the pimp slot, plus the jury love Malta usually has always inflates positions more notably in the semis than the final. If there is going to be one major shock I think Croatia could be in trouble but they should be safely through and Bosnia & Herzegovina will now be safe with their draw. Balkan ballads have qualified nicely for Montenegro in past years and I don't see why that won't continue here for Bosnia. Cyprus may be a bit more borderline now, likewise The Netherlands but I'm still banking on the latter being through while everyone else disagrees.

Estonia could now sneak through instead of Hungary as, like I said in the other thread, I'm not sure we'll get four qualifiers in a row from the first half. While Czech Republic will stand-out genre-wise between Russia and Cyprus, I worry being after a favourite will lead her to be overshadowed Mélanie René style although not as dramatically, but will mean another DNQ. Greece surely can't survive that draw and this semi with that song and the bottom 5 are near enough as we were, can't see any way those 5 are qualifying unless Sandhja has a very very effective stage show.

Semi-Final Two
01 Ukraine
02 Australia
03 Serbia
04 Lithuania
05 Latvia
06 Norway
07 Bulgaria
08 F.Y.R. Macedonia
09 Romania
10 Belgium
11 Israel
12 Denmark
13 Poland
14 Slovenia
15 Belarus
16 Ireland
17 Albania
18 Georgia
19 Switzerland

Ukraine have a more accessible 'Suus' in a way, and Rona did very well with a worse draw so Ukraine could win this semi and end up mid-top 10 in the final. I'm seeing the "winner" appeal more and more in Australia as time passes and while it won't get anywhere near doing that in the final, it stands out in this weaker semi now with its draw. Serbia, Lithuania and Latvia all have a couple of voting friends and very strong singers and songs and should be 100% safe. Norway and Bulgaria could manage Kati Wolf/Ivi Adamou-esque results with fan favourites that don't quite scale the heights the fans may desire, although with a good draw Poli could challenge for the final top 10. Nice draw for Macedonia, and while not a Knez-esque Balkan ballad it should have enough fans to get through. Romania really don't deserve to get through but I can already imagine them going extreme novelty with their staging and getting a "surprise" qualification like Cezar, although the poor draw will make it much more borderline than I previously thought. The last 3 in this semi surely won't all DNQ so I think Belgium could sneak in now.

Israel stand out surprisingly well in a ballad-heavy first few songs, still may be a little too early but should come very close to the top 10. I'm classing Lithuania, Denmark and Ireland as all appealing to the same market and Lithuania outclasses the other two as well as the help of a couple of extra voting friends not that it makes a difference for Donny as he's safe anyway I would expect and should take votes from Lighthouse X and Nicky. Lighthouse X are a better package than Nicky for me, the latter now comes across very very dated and cheesy and I have no idea why anyone would vote for Nicky over the other two and I doubt Westlife fans are going to make a difference! Switzerland could be on for another last place, it's going to be completely forgotten and even Georgia's alternative entry will at least pick up some niche votes. Eneda is a terrific singer and has a terrific draw but unless the juries absolutely adore it, surely there's little televotes coming for Albania.

Posted by: LexC 11th April 2016, 03:59 PM

Semi One

01 Russia
02 Iceland
03 Malta
04 The Netherlands
05 Croatia
06 Czech Republic
07 Armenia
08 Bosnia & Herzegovina
09 Azerbaijan
10 Austria

11 Greece
12 Cyprus
13 Hungary
14 Estonia
15 Finland
16 San Marino
17 Moldova
18 Montenegro

Semi Two

01 Bulgaria
02 Latvia
03 Serbia
04 Australia
05 Ukraine
06 Lithuania
07 Belgium
08 Romania
09 Norway
10 Israel

11 Macedonia
12 Poland
13 Denmark
14 Ireland
15 Slovenia
16 Albania
17 Belarus
18 Georgia
19 Switzerland

Grand Final

01 Bulgaria
02 Russia
03 Sweden
04 Latvia
05 Serbia
06 Iceland
07 The Netherlands
08 Ukraine
09 France
10 Australia

11 Malta
12 Spain
13 Lithuania
14 Croatia
15 Bosnia & Herzegovina
16 Italy
17 Armenia
18 Belgium
19 Romania
20 Czech Republic

21 Azerbaijan
22 Austria
23 Germany
24 Norway
25 Israel
26 United Kingdom

Posted by: AdamAloud 11th April 2016, 04:29 PM

Us finishing below Germany? Really?

Posted by: gooddelta 11th April 2016, 04:32 PM

Only in my dreams are Bulgaria ever winning

Posted by: Ryan. 11th April 2016, 04:33 PM

Yeah I think so too, you can tell Jamie-Lee won The Voice and our two didn't - there's just a bit more professionalism about 'Ghost' at least on what we've seen. The BBC could surprise us all with some amazing staging but it isn't going to happen is it...

Posted by: LexC 11th April 2016, 04:37 PM

QUOTE(AdamAloud @ Apr 11 2016, 05:29 PM)

Posted by: ScottyEm 11th April 2016, 05:07 PM

QUOTE(gooddelta @ Apr 11 2016, 05:32 PM)

Only in my dreams are Bulgaria ever winning

Posted by: Liаm 12th April 2016, 05:04 PM

I think Bulgaria might finish similar to Latvia last year. You wouldn't really have thought Latvia as a country could pull it off with their track record but it was such an effective song it was just ultimately a hit, I wasn't sure what to expect from it until it was doing so well in the voting Poli has a brilliant pop song with arguably the catchiest hook of the whole thing.

Posted by: AdamAloud 15th April 2016, 02:09 PM

Less than a month to go so time to do some updated predictions now we have the running order.

SEMI ONE
01. Iceland
02. Russia
03. Malta
04. Azerbaijan
05. Armenia
06. Cyprus
07. Bosnia & Herzegovina
08. Croatia
09. Greece
10. The Netherlands
---
11. Hungary
12. Estonia
13. Finland
14. Austria
15. Czech Republic
16. Moldova
17. San Marino
18. Montenegro

I think Russia should easily win the televote here, but even though I love it, it is a little dated so I can see the juries penalising it a bit, allowing Malta to take the jury vote, but I think once combined it'll be Iceland that come out on top. A favourable running order draw, brilliant staging and performance. Azerbaijan's had a few close calls lately, but I think the song is strong enough this year to be back up there, plus they're between Estonia & Montenegro in the running order. Bosnia & Herzegovina and Greece should keep their qualification records intact, although we haven't seen Greece performed live yet so that is subject to change.

I couldn't decide between The Netherlands and Hungary for the final spot, realistically both could make it but I think Hungary's luck might run out this year. Austria SHOULD be sailing through but I can see people being a bit WTF is this at it. I'd love for the Czech Republic, as the country to make it, but it's so forgettable and going after Sergey has killed any hope of a first qualification for them I feel. San Marino and Montenegro are dead on arrival.

SEMI TWO
01. Australia
02. Bulgaria
03. Lithuania
04. Ukraine
05. Latvia
06. Belgium
07. Norway
08. Romania
09. Serbia
10. Israel
---
11. Poland
12. Denmark
13. Macedonia
14. Switzerland
15. Slovenia
16. Ireland
17. Belarus
18. Georgia
19. Albania

I've gone back and forwards on this one a lot but I think Australia will take this semi. It's probably the most modern and current radio friendly song in this semi, even moreso than Lithuania and the juries will lap it up. Bulgaria not far behind Dami Im though! Lithuania and Ukraine should be up there, doing better on the televoting probably. Belgium are really lucky to be going on last and following Georgia and Albania, should be safely through with their upbeat bop. I think Romania will survive another day, I mean if Voltaj can come top 5 in their semi, I can see this scraping through. Serbia and Israel might be higher if they have good staging.

Poland is borderline, it'll be whether the disapora vote is enough again to see him through I feel. I can see Denmark being the jury pick getting knocked out by the televote and Macedonia the televote pick getting knocked out by the jury vote. Switzerland, Slovenia & Ireland are going to be totally forgotten about, none of them are particularly strong songs and I can't see any of them having any amazing staging to save them. I really don't see where Albania are going to get votes from, even Belarus and Georgia have niche interests about them, so I can't see anybody finishing last but them.

FINAL
01. Sweden
02. Australia
03. Russia
04. Iceland
05. Bulgaria
06. Lithuania
07. Malta
08. Ukraine
09. France
10. Azerbaijan

11. Italy
12. Latvia
13. Armenia
14. Bosnia & Herzegovina
15. Belgium
16. Cyprus
17. Spain
18. Norway
19. United Kingdom
20. Romania

21. Croatia
22. Greece
23. Serbia
24. The Netherlands
25. Israel
26. Germany

I think Sweden will still (unfortunately) take this. It's getting pre-contest hype and whilst it's going to be hated by many, it's also going to be loved (you just have to look at how divisive it is here on Buzzjack), by a lot too and when it comes down to it, the 50% that love it will all vote for it, whilst the other 50% will be voting all over the place and the juries are going to have a total WANKFEST to it.

As for the Big 5, France SHOULD do well for a change and I think it will, in fact the only thing I think that will go against it is not being 100% English. Italy should do well yet again, although it might just miss the top 10. Everything suggests Spain will be the fan favourite flop this year, but it is a radio hit in waiting so I think the juries will save it slightly. Same for the UK. Germany will be last again, bottom 3 at least. A totally forgettable song, and whilst she's a good singer, her Japanese anime-esque look is really weird and not in the good way. And the staging at the national final was incredibly boring, so if they keep it the same, I can't see anything saving this.

Posted by: Ryan. 15th April 2016, 03:37 PM

Posted by: Ryan. 15th April 2016, 03:40 PM

Seriously though I think the juries will like Germany more than the UK so I'd swap their positions in your big 5 predictions. Nothing there looks wildly off though, although I do think Iceland may underperform a bit compared to that, I'm not sure Greta is going to be able to connect to the audience in the way she ideally needs but I may change my mind once I see the Swedish camerawork and if there are more close-ups of her face that aren't obscured by lighting.

Then again Loreen was similar in her camerawork, but of course Euphoria was stronger than Hear Them Calling.

Posted by: LexC 15th April 2016, 04:04 PM

Well reastically Iceland's only going to look better in the Globen just based on the level of hi-tech and budgetary capabilities compared to Icelandic TV.

Posted by: pippa 18th April 2016, 01:41 PM

I would like to place a few small bets. Would anyone like to provide with some outside tips. I will place a couple of each ways bets for fun.

Posted by: gooddelta 18th April 2016, 01:59 PM

Semi-Final 1

1. Finland
2. Greece
3. Moldova
4. Hungary (9th)
5. Croatia
6. The Netherlands (6th)
7. Armenia (5th)
8. San Marino
9. Russia (1st)
10. Czech Republic
11. Cyprus (7th)
12. Austria (8th)
13. Estonia
14. Azerbaijan (4th)
15. Montenegro
16. Iceland (2nd)
17. Bosnia & Herzegovina (10th)
18. Malta (3rd)

Semi-Final 2

1. Latvia (4th)
2. Poland
3. Switzerland
4. Israel
5. Belarus
6. Serbia (10th)
7. Ireland
8. FYR Macedonia (9th)
9. Lithuania (5th)
10. Australia (1st)
11. Slovenia
12. Romania (7th)
13. Bulgaria (2nd)
14. Denmark
15. Ukraine (3rd)
16. Norway (6th)
17. Georgia
18. Albania
19. Belgium (8th)

No idea on the order beyond the top ten of each but I've bolded my predictions to go through...I can see Croatia in 11th in the first semi, Ireland might go through in Semi 2.

Posted by: pippa 18th April 2016, 03:17 PM

If Greece dont qualify this year which looks very likely based on the odds, would it be the first time they have failed to qualify for the final?

Posted by: ScottyEm 18th April 2016, 05:53 PM

The most realistic prediction I've seen yet. Russia not winning and Bulgaria doing very well is something I'm on board with!

QUOTE(AdamAloud @ Apr 15 2016, 03:09 PM)

Posted by: Campbell 19th April 2016, 03:20 PM

Having attended a Eurovision video preview party at the weekend, I thought I'd share the results from the voting with you all.

Bottom 3:
Albania
Romania
Montenegro

And the Top 10:

10th Cyprus
9th Austria
8th Iceland
7th Latvia
6th Spain
5th UK
4th Australia
3rd France
2nd Bulgaria
1st Russia

The favourites all seemed to be received well by everyone, with perhaps the exception of Sweden. Obviously, when it comes to live performances some of the songs might fare better, while others will no doubt suffer. For me personally, France and Russia were still the stand out songs while Estonia, Austria, Spain, Bulgaria and Latvia sounded much better on the night than when I'd listened to them previously. Perhaps that was the effects of alcohol as much as anything though...

Posted by: ScottyEm 19th April 2016, 05:35 PM

I think I was at the same one!

QUOTE(Campbell @ Apr 19 2016, 04:20 PM)

Posted by: Campbell 19th April 2016, 09:07 PM

QUOTE(ScottyEm @ Apr 19 2016, 06:35 PM)

I think I was at the same one!

Posted by: ScottyEm 19th April 2016, 10:42 PM

QUOTE(Campbell @ Apr 19 2016, 10:07 PM)

Did you enjoy the evening? That was my first time at it and I loved it!

Posted by: Ryan. 27th April 2016, 03:25 PM

With the new voting system potentially making it easier to predict with jury and televoting being completely separate, I'm attempting to break down the vote to decide my final pre-rehearsal predictions. Whenever I refer to previous results, I'm referring to semi-finals rather than finals.

Semi-Final One

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 01 03 Russia
Russia should easily win the televote here and juries should be impressed by what is bound to be a very polished presentation, although there are a couple of songs that are more jury appealing.

02 03 01 Malta
Malta have always overperformed with juries and with the perfect running order slot, a promised high-tech stage show and accomplished performer, they should do even better than their previous entries with juries. There's also a record around that involves something about one of the last two performers finishing top 3 in nearly every semi, Malta is more likely than Bosnia and Iceland (if it is last three rather than last two).

03 02 06 Armenia
Expecting another polished stage show here and Armenia have voting power and a very good vocalist. The unique structure should stand-out and the stage show should make it more accessible as Icebreaker became once that had been performed live.

04 08 04 The Netherlands
Juries have loved The Netherlands since their 2013 turnaround, topping the jury vote with The Common Linnets and even managing top 5 with Trijntje. Douwe should be an improvement on Trijntje and be in a strong jury top 4. It'll stand-out and televoters should go for this, but not as strongly as The Common Linnets as it is nearly impossible to stage it as well and has a worse draw.

05 04 09 Iceland
Greta's stage show should attract good televoting, she even managed a top 10 televote with a #2 draw back in 2012. It's in a good running order slot after the inaccessible effort from Montenegro and Greta is a reliable performer. Juries may not respond as well, they marked Greta outside the top 10 in 2012 and the comparisons with Of Monsters and Men and Loreen and Mans' previous stagings may knock a few marks off.

06 05 10 Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan have suffered a sudden downturn in results since *that* Lithuanian bribe video, with Azerbaijan's base vote proving to be much lower since. Nevertheless, Miracle should be much more accessible than Start A Fire and Hour Of The Wolf which both failed to make the televote top 10 and is in a good running order slot with no doubt good staging lined up. Juries have dragged Azerbaijan up in previous years, but Samra's vocals remain questionable.

07 10 05 Estonia
Estonia has surprised me by coming this high in my predictions but juries should take to this performance with good vocals and its unique sound. It isn't as accessible for televoters but should pick up a decent vote with a good running order slot and an appealing performer.

08 14 02 Czech Republic
My comparison point for Gabriela here is when Maja Keuc absolutely stormed the jury vote in 2011. Gabriela has some of the best vocals in the competition as proved by her performance in Malta last weekend and juries could go for this in a big way. With the new voting system benefiting those who do very well in just one half of the vote, this could be enough to drag a poor televote into a combined top 10 as I do think Gabriela may be overshadowed by Russia.

09 09 08 Hungary
I expect this to middle in both sides of the vote, a poor draw but an appealing performer with strong vocals which admittedly won't be to everyone's taste. Hungary have a perfect record since their comeback, and this should sneak through.

10 12 07 Croatia
I'm not sure if this is instant enough for televoters with the song only really getting going a minute from the end, and Nina has a tendency to "do a Molly Sterling" and be quite shy of the camera. Juries should appreciate her fantastic vocals and the draw won't be such a hindrance here and this could be enough to sneak her through.

11 06 14 Bosnia & Herzegovina
I've surprised myself by losing both Bosnia and Greece here, I expected to have both inside my top 10. Bosnia always have strong televote support, MayaSar finished 7th with a similar draw in 2012. I think this is slightly more accessible than Maya although the rapper will draw that back a bit. Juries tend not to respond well to rap with Greece's perfectly drawn Watch My Dance only just sneaking into the top 10 and Knez had to be dragged into the top 10 by the televote with his Balkan ballad last year - even Dino Merlin missed the jury top 10 in 2011. Overall this could just miss out with a lack of support from juries.

12 07 15 Greece
Greece are in a similar boat, but with even more rap that Ljubav Je. Maria Elena only managed 9th with televoters last year, and Argo have an even worse draw than she had. I expect the Greek sound to entice some voters back that didn't vote for the generic sound from Maria Elena but I struggle to see juries going for this and Greece arguably have a lack of friends in this semi, Cyprus aside.

13 11 12 Cyprus
If Greece have a lack of friends, Cyprus certainly do. But underwhelming reviews have come out in the pre-parties. It should stand out but I do think this could middle in both sets of votes and just miss out if the performances don't improve in rehearsals.

14 13 13 Austria
This is very niche and will have core support in both sets of votes, but it will be limited core support and I just can't imagine this gaining mainstream support unless Zoe sells her performance perfectly in rehearsals. This is prime candidate for fan favourite fail, and it seems this view is shared by many.

15 18 11 Finland
It's always a worry when a song doesn't win its televote in its national final, Sandhja only managed 3rd. It's not the most memorable of songs and Sandhja is comparable to Ann Sophie in her strong, sexy, almost aggressive stage presence and we saw how well that went for Ann last year.

16 15 18 San Marino
This will stand out whether in a positive or negative way, and Valentina saw televote success with the very dated Maybe in 2014. I Didn't Know is much worse but it could have limited appeal and the Turkish diaspora may give a tiny boost. Juries will surely not go for this unless you are Montenegro.

17 16 17 Moldova
Moldova's base vote is smaller than we may imagine with Cristina Scarlat one point off the bottom of the televote in 2014 with a much better draw than Lidia and arguably better vocals and a more interesting song. I can't see televoters going for this generic europop song and juries will punish its dated sound and potentially mediocre vocals.

18 17 16 Montenegro
The most inaccessible song in the semi-final, it should pick up a few niche votes but nothing more. It's as inaccessible as Finland was last year and that went nowhere with juries.


Semi 2 will come later on!

Posted by: Ryan. 27th April 2016, 04:51 PM

Semi-Final Two

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 02 01 Australia
I'm still not seeing the massive appeal of this, but Australia still brings a bit of a novelty vote and high-tech staging is promised. Dami has been called uncharismatic by some, but her strong vocals and memorable stage show (and over-repetitive chorus) should appeal to televoters, but especially juries who are bound to love the professional package put forward. I think Dami can lift this song live.

02 01 04 Ukraine
Comparisons have been made to Suus which I can see to an extent, I think the commentators will likely put forward the story behind the song and this should pull in televotes as emotional stories have done previously. We've also been promised some sort of 3D stage show here which should go down well and there could be a hint of a pro-Ukraine vote that helps a bit. Juries should appreciate the strong vocals, although is less accessible then Serbia hence the lower jury position.

03 04 03 Latvia
Aminata and Loic proved last year that left-field songs can do well, both of which did better with juries than televoters in their respective semis last year. Justs' draw is more comparable to Loic's who managed 3rd with televotes and 2nd with juries, and Heartbeat doesn't quite match the quality of Rhythm Inside but shouldn't fare too much worse.

04 03 06 Bulgaria
I think this is the closest we are getting to a party song this year, as long as Bulgaria stage this correctly, and Nadav and Bojana proved there is still a market for this. Poli also has the advantage of a song much more contemporary than both of those two. Juries were on board with Nadav, not so much Bojana and that was presumably because Nadav's was the more contemporary of the two and staged better as well. Nevertheless Nadav still did better with televotes than juries and Poli should follow suit, although her draw slot has become less than desirable coming at the end of a row of three female soloists in a row and no longer in the advantageous spot before an ad break.

05 08 02 Serbia
Juries should love Sanja who in my opinion is the best vocalist of the competition and should get a vote comparable to Gabriela in the first semi, if not higher with Goodbye providing more chance to showcase her vocals than I Stand allows for Gabriela. Sanja doesn't have the best draw in the world being after an ad break or have the Balkan star power Kaliopi provides afterwards but should stand out between IVAN and Nicky neither of which are amazing vocalists and has a more accessible song than Kaliopi which has the potential to get votes outside the Balkans, I expect the televote to take a hit but still be top 10.

06 05 10 Lithuania
Lithuania always are successful in the televote and are in the perfect semi with Latvia, UK, Ireland, Poland, Georgia all voting here. Donny is a strong performer, finishing top 3 overall in his semi with the much much inferior Love Is Blind - although with a much better draw. Juries could mark this down for it being quite generic, but in this semi it should be easily through.

07 10 05 Norway
While this does have a unique structure, it doesn't match the uniqueness of LoveWave in the other semi and it comes across a little bland and Agnete is a good vocalist but relies on backing vocalist help. I think juries will appreciate what will be a very professional package but I'm not sure there is much for televoters to cling on to relatively speaking. This would be very borderline in semi 1 but is fine in this semi.

08 09 07 F.Y.R. Macedonia
I'm expecting a similar result for Kaliopi as in 2012, even though Dona is in my opinion more accessible and has a better draw than Crno i Belo. The use of native language will prevent its popularity spreading far from the Balkans, but juries will give it an extra boost due to a very strong vocal and will no doubt elevate this song further live as she did in 2012. Kaliopi just has this extra something and I can't see her missing out.

09 07 11 Belgium
While this semi will surely break the record I spoke about in the first semi with one of the last few finishing top 3, Belgium is in the perfect slot with an uptempo catchy song and there is no reason to believe this won't get a good televote as nearly all last-on songs do. Juries may not go for it as much with the claims of it being unoriginal and vocals not suited to the song, but this should be a professional package that won't be voted down either.

10 06 13 Poland
This has been doing well in the OGAE poll which has surprised me and I think that televotes for Poland will extend beyond its diaspora. Juries will mark this down for being very dated, although the strong vocals will ensure it isn't right at the bottom of the jury vote and the televote will ultimately pull it through.

11 11 08 Ireland
I still maintain Lithuania does what Nicky and Lighthouse X wants to do much better and doing it more contemporary. While I think Nicky is the weakest of the 3, I think he will attract more votes than a boyband who are too old to get the votes younger boybands would get. Juries will probably give him a little boost due to his reputation but not enough to pull him through.

12 12 09 Denmark
Exactly the same case as Ireland, professional package but ultimately too bland.

13 13 16 Belarus
We've been promised a high-tech show and that will appeal to televoters, but I fear Belarus are going to chuck everything at this and it's going to turn off televoters more than its turns them on. IVAN's vocals are no more than passable so I can't see juries going for this in a big way either.

14 17 12 Albania
There's still nothing in this song for televoters to be able to grab on to, there just isn't a hook in the song or any progression either. Eneda has amazing vocals however and juries will respond to this, however not enough to rank it above stronger songs.

15 15 14 Israel
I think the draw ultimately ruins this, it's in a run of 3 ballads from 2nd to 4th in the draw and while Hovi's is the most contemporary and professional of these 3 ballads it doesn't seem to be appealing as much as Color Of Your Life is doing for Poland and the new voting system will help those countries with diasporas especially in these borderline decisions.

16 14 17 Slovenia
Slovenia are going all out in their stage show for this with an acrobat for some bizarre reason, but this should see it gain a little traction with televoters. ManuElla's vocals aren't great and the song isn't strong enough either, so there is nothing for juries to vote for here.

17 16 15 Georgia
This will attract a niche in both sets of votes, but there is little widespread appeal so I can't imagine it escaping the bottom 4 in either vote much like San Marino and Montenegro in their semi.

18 18 18 Switzerland
Rykka's draw makes this completely forgettable and her vocals, while improving in the pre-parties, are still unreliable. I can't see them doing anything exciting with the staging either and this is going to be Switzerland's second last place in a row surely?

Posted by: Umi 1st May 2016, 09:05 PM

Got my predictions for the semis done. No predictions for the final yet because running order seems too important to know for that, which is a pity cos I'd love to do that now. Anyway:

Semi 1:
1. Russia
2. Malta
3. Azerbaijan
4. Armenia
5. Iceland
6. The Netherlands
7. Czech Republic
8. Hungary
9. Austria
10. Cyprus
11. Bosnia & Herzegovina
12. Estonia
13. Greece
14. Croatia
15. Moldova
16. Finland
17. San Marino
18. Montenegro

I kind of struggled with the second half of the qualifiers here but I'm somewhat happy with them overall. Austria I would have originally put as a DNQ but I just feel like it'll have a bit more support than most others do. The fan support has to be coming from somewhere and I feel like juries will appreciate the unique package. France are voting in the semi which is nice but I feel like they'd rather have Germany so that's not such a boon. 3rd is a little high for Azerbaijan but I feel like they've managed to establish themselves as a country that people will pay attention to when they bring a good song to the table despite the last couple of years. 'Miracle' is such a song and I'd expect tremendous staging for it. Croatia I just don't really see happening and Estonia is kind of similar, though I am a lot less confident on keeping that out. Cyprus I think are being overlooked a bit because the country has a poor record but the song really stands out.

Semi 2:
1. Australia
2. Ukraine
3. Bulgaria
4. Latvia
5. Serbia
6. Norway
7. Lithuania
8. Belgium
9. F.Y.R. Macedonia
10. Israel
11. Denmark
12. Belarus
13. Ireland
14. Slovenia
15. Poland
16. Albania
17. Georgia
18. Switzerland

So hard to do 8-15 for this. It feels effectively random. Nothing too interesting to say about any individual songs.

Posted by: Ryan. 7th May 2016, 08:55 PM

Here are my predictions after all of the rehearsals, just grouping them together into categories rather than going for exact predictions at the moment.

Semi-Final One

Certain Qualifiers

Russia
Armenia

Likely Qualifiers

Malta
Iceland
Bosnia & Herzegovina

Borderline Qualifiers

The Netherlands
Czech Republic
Azerbaijan
Hungary
Greece
Cyprus

Unlikely Qualifiers

Estonia
Austria
Croatia
Finland

Certain Non-Qualifiers

Moldova
San Marino
Montenegro

I definitely feel it is 10 from 11 here, there's a very close mid-pack and it could go one of 6 ways as to which misses out. I'm leaning towards Cyprus here, but Greece and Azerbaijan could both really struggle with jury support and Hungary with televoting support. I think Czech Republic have done enough this time and The Netherlands also, as long as Douwe's 10 second pause isn't horribly awkward even with the audience there. Congratulations to Croatia in turning my original top 3 semi prediction for them a couple of months ago into a probable DNQ.

Semi-Final Two

Certain Qualifiers

Ukraine
Australia
Serbia

Likely Qualifiers

Latvia
Bulgaria
Norway

Borderline Qualifiers

Belgium
Lithuania
Poland
F.Y.R. Macedonia
Israel
Denmark

Unlikely Qualifiers

Georgia
Belarus

Certain Non-Qualifiers

Ireland
Albania
Slovenia
Switzerland

I have to drop 2 from my mid-pack in this semi and I think Israel and Denmark will be more likely to fall short. Israel has had fantastic reviews but it is on so early and doesn't have the diaspora support that Poland has with a similar draw. Hovi could make it through on very strong jury support however. Denmark just feels too bland and is fighting for the same votes as Lithuania and Ireland as I've said many times. Georgia could be a surprise package, but I still think it's quite unlikely - but a big improvement on my previous predictions. My core mid-pack here is Poland, Macedonia and Israel who I think are very interchangeable, more so than the others in the category.

Posted by: AdamAloud 7th May 2016, 09:02 PM

I think Belgium are a cert to go through, other than that I think you're pretty spot on with those predictions Ryan. Croatia and Lithuania are the two that I think have really ballsed up their staging, luckily Lithuania are in the 'dream semi' in terms of diaspora voting.

Posted by: Ryan. 7th May 2016, 09:05 PM

I was very tempted to push Belgium up a category, just can't shake the little uncertainty that it is a bit of a niché genre and Belgium doesn't have much support but the staging reminds me in a weird way of Cliché Love Song and that did very well so Laura should be safe and does probably deserve to move up a category!

Posted by: AdamAloud 7th May 2016, 09:18 PM

OK here's some revised semi predictions from moi, not changed anything too drastic since my last lot, of course Romania are now out so that's freed up a spot in Semi 2.

SEMI ONE
01. Armenia
02. Russia
03. Iceland
04. Malta
05. Azerbaijan
06. Bosnia & Herzegovina
07. Greece
08. Cyprus
09. Czech Republic
10. The Netherlands
---
11. Hungary
12. Estonia
13. Austria
14. Croatia
15. Finland
16. Moldova
17. San Marino
18. Montenegro

SEMI TWO
01. Ukraine
02. Australia
03. Bulgaria
04. Belgium
05. Serbia
06. Latvia
07. Poland
08. Lithuania
09. Israel
10. Norway
---
11. Macedonia
12. Denmark
13. Belarus
14. Slovenia
15. Ireland
16. Georgia
17. Switzerland
18. Albania

Posted by: Umi 7th May 2016, 09:22 PM

That's a lot of faith in Armenia

Posted by: AdamAloud 7th May 2016, 09:26 PM

QUOTE(Umi @ May 7 2016, 10:22 PM)

That's a lot of faith in Armenia

Posted by: LexC 7th May 2016, 09:32 PM

Like Ryan, actual positions are a bit arbitrary so I predict the semis to go like this

SEMI ONE

Definites

Russia
Iceland
Malta
Armenia

Likely

Bosnia & Herzegovina
Netherlands

Borderline IN

Czech Republic
Austria
Greece
Cyprus

Bordine OUT

Hungary
Azerbaijan

Unlikely

Croatia
Estonia
Finland

Gone

Moldova
San Marino
Montenegro

SEMI TWO

Definites

Ukraine
Latvia
Serbia
Australia

Likely

Bulgaria
Belgium
Norway

Borderline IN

Lithuania
Poland
Israel

Borderline OUT

Macedonia

Unlikely

Denmark
Georgia
Ireland
Belarus

Gone

Slovenia
Albania
Switzerland

In term of what's changed, I'm putting Greece in on the basis that it does what it does relatively well (and I'd had them as 11th for ages in the knowledge that they'd make it in if somebody completely messed it up - looking at you Croatia!) and they've got a head start on most of the others in the semi anyways. Also fairly confident that Azerbaijan won't make it through a mix of bad vocals, the song being a bit *too* gay interest, the fact that what allies they have will have other songs like Russia and (for all but one) Armenia higher up the pecking order and the fact that even with a good amount of neighbourly and "friendly" votes they would have DNQ'd last year under the new voting system. In Semi 2 it's between the three B-League ballads in the first half with Poland, Israel and Macedonia for the last two spots to which I've put Macedonia out on the basis of most of their neighbors will have Serbia and Bulgaria higher up their priorities than them and that it just isn't, ultimately, that good of a song to the point where all that I think is majorly in their favor is the fact that Kaliopi is singing it. That said, all it takes is Lithuania to seriously mess it up and they'll all be through and my theory will be ruined!

Posted by: LexC 7th May 2016, 09:39 PM

QUOTE(AdamAloud @ May 7 2016, 10:26 PM)

Posted by: Iz~ 7th May 2016, 09:54 PM

Did Bosnia have a good rehearsal or are we now assuming it will qualify because of strong televote support/being late on? It's a bit of a messy song and I'd still be putting it in with the borderline semi 1 lot.

Slightly contrary to that, I feel like LoveWave could be really impactful in the 'blown off one's feet after one listen' way the way it's sounding. That will be enough to overcome its messy structure, I feel it's got a near lock on for top 10.

Posted by: Ryan. 7th May 2016, 09:58 PM

I think I was factoring in a messy stage-show in my previous borderline predictions for Bosnia when in fact it has turned out looking pretty good with strong vocals and perfect draw so I don't see why it can't follow in the footsteps of all other Balkan ballads now.

Agreed with Armenia, certain top 10 and I do think it could match Loic's result and sneak into the top 4 if everything goes right for it hence my each way bet!

Posted by: Vülker 8th May 2016, 02:57 PM

Having seen it live let me throw my 2 cents in

Semi-Final One
01 ► Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away
02 ► Greece: Argo - Utopian Land
03 ► Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars
04 Q Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer
05 Q Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse
06 Q The Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down
07 Q Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave
08 ► San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know
09 Q Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One
10 Q Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand
11 Q Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego
12 ► Austria: ZOË - Loin d'ici
13 Q Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann - Play
14 ► Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle
15 ► Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing
16 Q Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling
17 ► Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je
18 Q Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water

Semi-Final Two
01 Q Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat
02 ► Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life
03 ► Switzerland: Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind
04 Q Israel: Hovi Star - Made Of Stars
05 Q Belarus: IVAN - Help You Fly
06 Q Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter)
07 Q Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight
08 ► Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona
09 ► Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night
10 Q Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence
11 ► Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue And Red
12 Q Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime
13 ► Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love
14 Q Ukraine: Jamala - 1944
15 ► Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker
16 Q Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold
17 ► Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale
18 Q Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure

Posted by: Qassändra 8th May 2016, 03:15 PM

Semi-Final One
01 Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away
02 Greece: Argo - Utopian Land
03 Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars
04 Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer
05 Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse
06 The Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down
07 Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave
08 San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know
09 Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One
10 Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand
11 Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego
12 Austria: ZOË - Loin d'ici
13 Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann - Play
14 Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle
15 Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing
16 Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling
17 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je
18 Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water

Semi-Final Two
01 Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat
02 Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life
03 Switzerland: Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind
04 Israel: Hovi Star - Made Of Stars
05 Belarus: IVAN - Help You Fly
06 Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter)
07 Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight
08 Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona
09 Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night
10 Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence
11 Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue And Red
12 Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime
13 Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love
14 Ukraine: Jamala - 1944
15 Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker
16 Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold
17 Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale
18 Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure

Posted by: jafetsigfinns 9th May 2016, 10:20 AM

I like Vülker's lay-out so I hope you don't mind me copying your style! Here's how I imagine this going:

Semi-Final One
01 ► Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away
02 ► Greece: Argo - Utopian Land
03 ► Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars
04 Q Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer
05 Q Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse
06 Q The Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down
07 Q Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave
08 ► San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know
09 Q Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One
10 ► Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand
11 Q Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego
12 ► Austria: ZOË - Loin d'ici
13 Q Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann - Play
14 Q Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle
15 ► Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing
16 Q Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling
17 ► Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je
18 Q Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water

Wildcards: Czech Republic, Austria and BiH (could replace any of Hungary/Croatia/Azerbaijan/Malta)

Semi-Final Two
01 Q Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat
02 Q Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life
03 ► Switzerland: Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind
04 Q Israel: Hovi Star - Made Of Stars
05 ► Belarus: IVAN - Help You Fly
06 Q Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter)
07 ► Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight
08 Q Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona
09 ► Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night
10 Q Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence
11 ► Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue And Red
12 Q Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime
13 ► Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love
14 Q Ukraine: Jamala - 1944
15 Q Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker
16 ► Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold
17 ► Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale
18 Q Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure

Wildcards: Lithuania and Denmark (could replace Poland/Israel/Macedonia)

Posted by: Vülker 9th May 2016, 08:10 PM

Watched the first dress rehearsal live and now at the jury rehearsal for SF1 and judging by the reactions I've got to swap Estonia for Austria in my previous prediction. Austria had a big cheer while Estonia's was quite muted. Also Estonia is not very memorable

Posted by: gooddelta 10th May 2016, 09:11 PM

QUOTE(gooddelta @ Apr 18 2016, 02:59 PM)

Posted by: LexC 10th May 2016, 09:28 PM

I make that 7/10 on the last one here and 8/10 on twitter. God dammit Croatia/Azerbaijan!

Posted by: Vülker 10th May 2016, 09:34 PM

On my prediction scoresheet tonight I only failed Iceland for Croatia. I guess Greta should've wore something a lot more baffling. Such a shame.

Posted by: Aphrodite 11th May 2016, 11:10 PM

From last nights qualifiers I think Russia as I have mentioned look likely winners on Saturday but I hope Austria, Cyprus and The Netherlands do well in the final and don't get lost. Im still surprised Malta went through and im even more surprised by some of the good odds it has.

Posted by: gooddelta 11th May 2016, 11:50 PM

Ira is an icon amongst Eurovision fans and I think her not getting through would have been a bigger shock.

That said, I think the odds are far too inflated and I can see Malta finishing anywhere between about 11th and 18th. I don't see it finishing top ten.

Posted by: Ryan. 11th May 2016, 11:54 PM

I think Ira will most definitely finish bottom half now unless juries really go for it, the performance just fell flat for me and no doubt for many others. As I've said before, it was painfully obvious that they originally had a different concept (the "never seen before" projection technology) for their stage show as the stage felt so empty last night presumably due to ditching that concept and not having a plan B.

Posted by: Aphrodite 13th May 2016, 12:27 AM

Im not getting the Ukraine hype in any way at all, in fact i thought the song was borderline rubbish.

My ideal top 5 result would be:
1st Russia
2nd Bulgaria
3rd Austria
4th Cyprus
5th The Netherlands.

Posted by: Ryan. 13th May 2016, 05:17 PM

Going to have another go at breaking it down so I can try and make sense of the mid-pack which will no doubt be very close as always.

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 01 04 Russia
02 03 01 Australia
03 02 03 Sweden
04 04 02 Ukraine
05 05 07 Armenia
06 11 05 France
07 06 12 Latvia
08 10 08 The Netherlands
09 14 10 Serbia
10 08 17 Lithuania
11 07 18 Austria
12 17 09 Italy
13 22 06 Malta
14 12 16 Cyprus
15 13 15 Bulgaria
16 18 11 Israel
17 09 25 Poland
18 20 14 Croatia
19 15 20 Belgium
20 25 13 Czech Republic
21 16 23 Georgia
22 19 21 Azerbaijan
23 21 19 Hungary
24 23 22 United Kingdom
25 24 26 Spain
26 26 24 Germany

Reserving the right to edit these after tonight's jury final!

(and before anyone asks I know Australia get a lower combined score than Russia but I'm factoring in that Russia will landslide the televote much more than Australia win the jury vote)

Posted by: Silas 13th May 2016, 05:30 PM

I think Australia will win. Russia will be top 3 for sure and I think Bulgaria or Belgium may sneak into 5th with a high Televote and low jury score.

Posted by: *Tim 13th May 2016, 05:34 PM

I imagone Laura to get a pretty decent Jury score tho. It's a great performance, both vocally and aesthetically and the song is good as well

Posted by: Ryan. 13th May 2016, 05:45 PM

I'll post this again in the Grand Final thread when it appears tomorrow, but here are the predictions for the top 15 from the Finnish broadcaster's analyst that got 9/10 correct in each semi-final with the only 2 they got wrong being predicted 10th in their respective semis anyway!



(Ruotsi is Sweden, the others should be obvious or previously mentioned in the other threads)

Posted by: LexC 13th May 2016, 05:55 PM

Using Ryan's methodology, here is the first draft of my usually wildly inaccurate prediction

Main - Jury - Public
01 01 02 Australia
02 05 01 Russia
03 02 04 Ukraine
04 03 05 Armenia
05 07 03 Sweden
06 04 07 France
07 08 06 Serbia
08 06 11 Latvia
09 10 09 Netherlands
10 13 08 Bulgaria

11 11 10 Austria
12 09 13 Italy
13 12 15 Georgia
14 16 12 Cyprus
15 14 18 Israel
16 17 17 Malta
17 15 21 Croatia
18 20 16 Belgium
19 24 14 Lithuania
20 18 20 United Kingdom

21 22 19 Poland
22 19 25 Germany
23 21 24 Hungary
24 26 22 Azerbaijan
25 25 23 Spain
26 23 26 Czech Republic

Posted by: gooddelta 13th May 2016, 06:00 PM

QUOTE(Ryan. @ May 13 2016, 06:45 PM)

I'll post this again in the Grand Final thread when it appears tomorrow, but here are the predictions for the top 15 from the Finnish broadcaster's analyst that got 9/10 correct in each semi-final with the only 2 they got wrong being predicted 10th in their respective semis anyway!



(Ruotsi is Sweden, the others should be obvious or previously mentioned in the other threads)

Posted by: gooddelta 13th May 2016, 06:03 PM

I will need Frans to squeak past Ukraine (or France...600 points seems wildly optimstic!) so I can get something each-way on that bet though

Posted by: Silas 13th May 2016, 06:04 PM

QUOTE(*Tim @ May 13 2016, 05:34 PM)

Posted by: AdamAloud 14th May 2016, 05:37 PM

I can see any of the top 6 I've put here winning.

01. Ukraine
02. Australia
03. Russia
04. Sweden
05. France
06. Armenia
07. Austria
08. Bulgaria
09. Malta
10. The Netherlands
11. Israel
12. Belgium
13. Serbia
14. Latvia
15. Azerbaijan
16. Croatia
17. Cyprus
18. Lithuania
19. Poland
20. United Kingdom
21. Czech Republic
22. Spain
23. Italy
24. Georgia
25. Hungary
26. Germany