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> 2020 United States Presidential Election Thread, presumptive biden vs trump
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Doctor Blind
post Jan 2 2020, 09:23 AM
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It is election year in America, with the vote due to be held on Tuesday 3 November.

Primaries and Caucuses commence very soon, starting with Iowa in early February - please continue the discussion and debate here.
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Izzy
post Jan 2 2020, 01:52 PM
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Thanks for starting the new topic Danny, let's keep this one full of high-quality discussion, and primarily related, for the next few months to the primaries going on across the States for the first half of the year to choose the candidates for the presidential race.

I figure it might be helpful (and I enjoy doing this) to round up where exactly we are so we are informed:

The Democratic Party Primaries and Caucuses
here's how Bernie can still win.

The expectation is that this is going to dominate 99% of relevant talking points about the primary process, who will be the challenger to the incumbent president? There are still more than 2 people who could still realistically win the nomination going into the election year. Those four, Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren, are all polling between 13-22%, which means the early primaries are likely to be very scattered, especially given there are 11 other hangers-on who haven't given up yet. It's almost like the Democrats have become Republicans... ahem.

Historically, the results of the early states tends to dictate the rest of the races, and candidates that weren't high in the polls CAN very easily maneuver themselves into a dominant position if they get good results in the first 4 states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

The candidates
In rough order of likelihood to win:

Joe Biden, former vice-president, black feminist
Bernie Sanders, Vermont Senator, hearty folk musician
Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, cites Sam Smith as inspiration
Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Senator, has got a tribe for that
~
Michael Bloomberg, billionaire and former mayor of NYC, fiscally conservative on ad spending
Andrew Yang, entrepreneur, first ever forward-wing candidate
Cory Booker, New Jersey Senator, documentarian for Netflix
Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Senator, Leslie Knope cosplayer
Tom Steyer, billionaire, Honda Accord fan
Julián Castro, former Secretary of Housing, prolific tweet merchant
Michael Bennet, Colorado Senator, Ted Cruz' worst nightmare
Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii Congresswoman, "present"
Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachussetts, is literally Obama
Marianne Williamson, author, warrior against dark psychic forces
John Delaney, Maryland Congressman, lost $10 million to this campaign

Calendar for the first month

February 3rd: Iowa Caucus
February 11th: New Hampshire Primary
February 22nd: Nevada Caucus
Febraury 29th: South Carolina Primary
March 3rd: Super Tuesday - 14 states including California and Texas

Caucuses vs primaries

These might be unfamiliar terms. Both are forms of election to choose the Democratic candidate recommended for each state. If I've got any of this wrong please correct me.

Primaries are simple elections with ballot boxes. Most primaries are closed or semi-closed - New Hampshire is the latter, meaning that only registered Democratic Party members in the case of the former, or registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters (i.e. not Republican/Libertarian/Green/other party members) in the case of the latter can vote. A few states do run open primaries, where anyone can vote no matter which party they are a member of.

Caucuses are far more archaic and complicated. The type Iowa does is a 'walking subcaucus'. Party members gather in a meeting in their local precinct on February 3rd. They have a meeting/debate to choose their candidate, and indicate their vote by standing in a certain area of the room. The proportion is noted and reported. Each precinct then sends a small number of their members (representing the viewpoint split) to a county meeting held a month later. The process repeats and each county sends a proportion of their members to the state's districts the month after that. Finally, the state convention meets and decides what delegates to send to the national convention.

Whether the voting is done via primary or caucus, each state is assigned delegates relative to its population, and candidates pick up their predicted delegates and add them to their vote count. Most of these are pledged delegates, who look at the result of the state and split themselves according to the result, to vote for that candidate at the national convention. There are also unpledged delegates, aka superdelegates, who typically do not pledge themselves to any candidate prior to the convention.

Other primaries (Republican, Libertarian, Green etc)

Most attention is on the Democratic primary. However other primaries are still going on.

Some states are not holding a Republican primary/caucus this year, with the expectation that Trump will be renominated as the incumbent. However, most still are, and Trump can expect to face some token opposition from Bill Weld and Joe Walsh. He's likely to have his little hands full though - but this topic is not about the upcoming trial or his general non-primarying activities. We'll start a topic for that soon.

The Libertarian and Green primaries are also occurring, as well as even more minor parties. Delights like Vermin Supreme for the Libertarians abound.
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Bré
post Jan 2 2020, 02:23 PM
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Big oof at you declaring 2 other candidates less likely to win than Deval Patrick. Of course that far down the list the chance is 0 for everyone but... this happened.

I think Biden is looking like not doing all that well in Iowa and NH which I hope will be enough to kill his candidacy and have Buttigieg replace him as the centrist candidate of choice, he's at least slightly better.
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Izzy
post Jan 2 2020, 03:12 PM
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Ooh, yay, this thread has already claimed its first victim! And it's not Deval Patrick.



RIP Castro. You wouldn't be the worst choice of VP for someone.
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Crazy Chris
post Jan 2 2020, 03:57 PM
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Rumours still abound in the US that Hillary will enter the primaries race late. Can't see it myself. Anybody else?
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Brett-Butler
post Jan 2 2020, 05:06 PM
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Jan 2 2020, 04:57 PM) *
Rumours still abound in the US that Hillary will enter the primaries race late. Can't see it myself. Anybody else?


She’s just been appointing Chancellor of Queens University Belfast (my alma mater) so she’ll have her hands full for the next while.
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Crazy Chris
post Jan 2 2020, 05:54 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 2 2020, 05:06 PM) *
She’s just been appointing Chancellor of Queens University Belfast (my alma mater) so she’ll have her hands full for the next while.



Well the role of Chancellor is usually ceremonial and advisory anyway so doubt she'll actually be there much. The Vice-Chancellor does the most work.
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Quarantilas
post Jan 2 2020, 11:45 PM
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A good mate of mine is in South Carolina and I was getting the lowdown from her on the candidate’s. So Sanders is the millenials candidate basically but hes a turn off for a huge chunk of people. Basically he’s Corbyn. A totally unlike able fud running on a highly electable platform. Warren doesn’t have as good a platform but is probably the right candidate for where America is right now in terms of laying the groundwork for an AOC (or similar) presidency.

Caveat of course it’s just my mates view. But she is a democrat in a blue leaning city in a still quite red leaning state. Edge of the Bible Belt, still flies the confederate flag, very pro-gun, first of the confederate states to leave the union etc etc etc. basically on paper it’s a trump safe zone but it’s the kind of state the democrats should be starting to target (sandwiched between increasingly purple GA and NC with similarly changing demographics)
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Bré
post Jan 2 2020, 11:57 PM
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Bernie is most definitely not anywhere near as unpopular as Corbyn. I'm pretty sure he's actually one of very few US politicians who sometimes gets net positive results in approval polls.
edit: 'sometimes' is actually an understatement, he's pretty consistently significantly more favourable than unfavourable (at least recently). Of course he isn't for everyone but who is? Certainly not Trump. (And with respect, although it'd be great if South Carolina flipped to the Dems, that should surely be a much lower priority for them than winning back the Michigans, Wisconsins and Pennsylvanias that had voted Democrat in every election for decades before flipping because of Hillary)

I'd love to see AOC become president in the future, a shame that she's too young at the moment or she could honestly have probably won this year...
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ON STRIKE
post Jan 3 2020, 12:12 AM
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Ummm your friend is high. Bernie is the MOST POPULAR politician in the entire United States. He is extremely well-liked and thr ONLY Democrat who wins independents.
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Quarantilas
post Jan 3 2020, 01:44 AM
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Given that the closest you are to the United States is *checks notes* Northumberland, I'll stick with my actual American friend living in South Carolina speaking to other real Americans.
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Izzy
post Jan 3 2020, 03:09 AM
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I feel the electoral ground is somewhat more favourable to Sanders than Corbyn, his engagement in the Rust Belt appears to be high, where he needs to win, and his opponent is more popularly seen as extreme than Corbyn's was. On the one hand, if you want to use the 'left fall in love' mantra to its fullest, you need their candidate (which is why Michael appears so blinkered), on the other, if he's targeting people who stayed at home rather than vote for Hillary, that's not the most reliable base.

South Carolina was incredibly hostile to Sanders last time and I don't expect that particular state to be any different this time to be honest. I think he as the candidate would have little hope of switching red states but he might cause some purple ones to flip. Biden would probably make ground where he doesn't need to which is why I feel he'd lose the most. Warren could do both. Her being chosen might be the potential unity candidate.

See I'd characterise those who vote for Sanders but not other Democratic candidates as less 'leftists', because those are really a rare breed in America, but 'anti-establishment' folks who don't like typical politicians. Only possibly Warren would get them to move out of the rest and for some of them it might be just as likely for them to go out and vote Republican.
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Crazy Chris
post Jan 3 2020, 08:14 AM
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QUOTE(ChRiMbO LeG PiPe @ Jan 3 2020, 12:12 AM) *
Ummm your friend is high. Bernie is the MOST POPULAR politician in the entire United States. He is extremely well-liked and thr ONLY Democrat who wins independents.



Then why is Biden still ahead in all the polls this week? Bernie wasn't even the most popular Democrat in 2016 was he.


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris-tmas: Jan 3 2020, 08:24 AM
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ON STRIKE
post Jan 3 2020, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frřkner @ Jan 3 2020, 01:44 AM) *
Given that the closest you are to the United States is *checks notes* Northumberland, I'll stick with my actual American friend living in South Carolina speaking to other real Americans.


And yet they didn't know Sanders is the most popular politician in the country... Also, r.e his congress seats: one he flipped which had been Rep for 30 years. The other? 100 years.
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Izzy
post Jan 3 2020, 02:30 PM
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QUOTE(ChRiMbO LeG PiPe @ Jan 3 2020, 12:53 PM) *
And yet they didn't know Sanders is the most popular politician in the country... Also, r.e his congress seats: one he flipped which had been Rep for 30 years. The other? 100 years.


What's your goal here? It's not true, yet, on any metric aside from among a certain age group. Yes, he has an impressive career at changing Vermont's politics. And he is undoubtedly one of the most respectable people in public life at the moment, I've never seen anything from the man himself that makes me think anything other than that he's a wonderful politician who's given his life to public service and advocating for the common people. But America's voters aren't all you and me. And a bit less uncritical nonsense about how he's obviously got the nomination already would be nice.

Biden is still doing better than him in name recognition. But I am predicting that to drop for Iowa and New Hampshire, and those two are the key. Buttigieg seems to be eating into Biden's base more than Warren is eating into Sanders'. Polling in Iowa puts Buttigieg ahead of both and Sanders is in 2nd. Biden is also 3rd in New Hampshire, and that's basically Sanders' home turf. Imagine if Biden came 3rd in the first race, and then didn't come anywhere close in New Hampshire either. Serious doubts would start seeping in.
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ON STRIKE
post Jan 3 2020, 02:53 PM
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QUOTE(Iz~ @ Jan 3 2020, 02:30 PM) *
What's your goal here? It's not true, yet, on any metric aside from among a certain age group. Yes, he has an impressive career at changing Vermont's politics. And he is undoubtedly one of the most respectable people in public life at the moment, I've never seen anything from the man himself that makes me think anything other than that he's a wonderful politician who's given his life to public service and advocating for the common people. But America's voters aren't all you and me. And a bit less uncritical nonsense about how he's obviously got the nomination already would be nice.

Biden is still doing better than him in name recognition. But I am predicting that to drop for Iowa and New Hampshire, and those two are the key. Buttigieg seems to be eating into Biden's base more than Warren is eating into Sanders'. Polling in Iowa puts Buttigieg ahead of both and Sanders is in 2nd. Biden is also 3rd in New Hampshire, and that's basically Sanders' home turf. Imagine if Biden came 3rd in the first race, and then didn't come anywhere close in New Hampshire either. Serious doubts would start seeping in.


It's a fact that he is the most popular. It is also a fact that he has a history of reaching across the aisle to independent and Republican voters. He is not Corbyn.
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Izzy
post Jan 3 2020, 02:59 PM
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Now those would be very useful facts to have at my disposal. I'd like to see the sources on that.
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ON STRIKE
post Jan 3 2020, 03:02 PM
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Every single poll confirms it:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independen...3306.html%3famp

Not only that, but polls show he has the HIGHEST favourability and strength among independent voters.
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Crazy Chris
post Jan 3 2020, 04:29 PM
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QUOTE(ChRiMbO LeG PiPe @ Jan 3 2020, 03:02 PM) *
Every single poll confirms it:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independen...3306.html%3famp

Not only that, but polls show he has the HIGHEST favourability and strength among independent voters.



That was in 2017. Biden's more popular NOW. The polls mostly all say so.

You can't just give us a link from August 2017. rolleyes.gif Things change Michael. You ignored my post above and that's telling.


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris-tmas: Jan 3 2020, 04:29 PM
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ON STRIKE
post Jan 3 2020, 06:52 PM
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What post?

And the polls since then HAVE ALL CONFIRMED IT. He is more popular. Whether he is more popular with REGISTERED Democrats who vote in the prims and caucuses is another matter entirely.
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