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Posted by: Ryan. Feb 19 2017, 12:04 AM

Of course, it's very very very early to start looking at odds but Betfred has opened their Eurovision betting for 2017 which means we can start to see hype trains form and fade as the national selections come and go. As always, at such an early stage, just a couple of people making bets can cause big shifts in the market and the odds are based on that little bit of money in the market rather than expert opinions, but still let's have a look!

Italy currently lead the way with Francesco on odds of 4/1, no surprise considering his media coverage all over Europe. Following them are the power trio of Sweden, Russia and Australia who are of course up there just for being those countries. Those three are on 9/2, 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. Then we have the comeback kids both on 10/1. These are of course Greece, after their significant misfire last year, and Romania, after their significant misfire too followed by disqualification. Then we have hosts Ukraine on 12/1 and Estonia on 14/1, the latter no doubt due to the strength of their national final.

All other countries are 20/1 or higher at the moment. Probably worth pointing out Iceland at 50/1 and Belarus joint-outsiders at 100/1 considering the former's strong national final and the latter being the go-to fan favourite at the moment! It's never too early to spend your coins on Belarus if you truly think they are top 5 possibilities.

Full list here: http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner

Posted by: Ryan. Feb 19 2017, 12:04 AM

As always I'll copy these over from the 2016 thread so I don't forget about them. They are the odds for the top 10/15 from around a month before each contest according to previous topics in the forum which always provide very interesting reading.

2016

2015


2014


2013


2012

Posted by: Ryan. Feb 19 2017, 12:04 AM

2011

2010


2009


2008


2007

Posted by: gooddelta Feb 19 2017, 12:15 AM

Hoping 2017 has the unpredictability of 2011 and 2014, but more like the latter seeing as those surprise results were fantastic and 2011's surprise results were completely crap

Posted by: BillyH Feb 19 2017, 12:27 AM

Wow at that 2014 list - neither Conchita or the Common Linnets anywhere near the top two! I suppose Austria were seen as too novelty and Netherlands too chilled until the semi-finals arrived.

Odds didn't do too badly last year for the top seven picks (Malta instead of Bulgaria being the only odd one out) but Russia were by far the favourites right up until the contest, Australia and (eventual winners) Ukraine having a late charge after the semis - even then I think few of us actually predicted 1944 to win. Surprises can certainly still happen!

Posted by: Martyn Feb 19 2017, 12:41 AM

How did they get the winner so wrong in 2007?

Posted by: BillyH Feb 19 2017, 02:04 AM

Probably because of DJ Bobo's massive popularity in parts of Europe, although fairly unknown here - even his huge Europe-wide smash https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7QME0bzZuA only went low top 40 here. Vampires Are Alive reached top 10 in a few countries even though it didn't make it out the semis.

Posted by: David Feb 22 2017, 07:33 PM

Some of those previous odds are brilliant to read. DJ Bobo favourite in 2007 and Jade Ewen so far down in 2009 are two that stick out! Thinking back, I'd have thought Jade's odds would've been around 6/1 or 7/1.

Hope we get an unpredictable year this year, but at the moment I can see the Italian hype gaining more and more momentum. Nothing else selected stands a chance in comparison to that yet. Indeed, if we were to have the final right now with the 13 selected songs, I think the UK would be top two or three!

With the possible exception of Poland, I don't think we've got a single semi final qualifier yet either...

Posted by: Ryan. Feb 23 2017, 02:44 PM

I'd expect Belarus and Georgia both to qualify as well, definitely the former. Hungary are also more likely that not in my opinion and Malta can never be ruled out with their jury support!

Posted by: BillyH Apr 20 2017, 11:44 PM

Not too long to go and Italy look unbeatable, far and away the favourite on all booking sites. In (distant) second place is Bulgaria, presumably after drastically underestimating Poli last year.

No surprises with Sweden being 3rd, amazingly though Portugal follow it in 4th - that would be a hell of a comeback for them, their first Final appearance since 2010 and first top 10 since 1996, their 6th place that year being their current all-time best. Over-optimistic hype or one of the year's biggest surprises? Belgium complete the top 5 (slipping from #2 a few weeks ago), some offering as low as 20/1 for Blanche which could well be worth a punt.

I do think Italy have all but won this, but other than Sweden god knows about the rest of the top 10. Last year Russia, France, Sweden, Australia and Ukraine at least seemed assured of top ten places, this time I've no idea!

Posted by: Ryan. Apr 21 2017, 12:31 AM

Ooh I should quickly jot down the top 15 so I have a record to add to my history posts above!

13/10 Italy
13/2 Bulgaria
9/1 Sweden
14/1 Portugal
20/1 Belgium
33/1 Australia
33/1 Armenia
40/1 France
50/1 Azerbaijan
50/1 Denmark
50/1 Hungary
66/1 Greece
80/1 Romania
100/1 The Netherlands
100/1 Estonia

Posted by: AdamAloud Apr 23 2017, 06:09 PM

Highly considering each way bets on Romania, Estonia and The Netherlands!

Posted by: Liаm Apr 23 2017, 07:05 PM

I've put £2.50 on Netherlands each way, too tempting!

Posted by: David Apr 24 2017, 12:08 PM

Bookies really think it's a foregone conclusion this year - even more so than last year! I knew Russia wouldn't win last year, but I can't see Italy being beaten this year. They're overestimating Sweden too.

Posted by: Ryan. Apr 26 2017, 03:50 PM

As we approach rehearsals, here are how the odds have settled over the past few weeks. As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with ties split by latest Betfair Exchange odds.

01 | 0011/8 | Italy · Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
02 | 0007/1 | Bulgaria · Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
03 | 0009/1 | Sweden · Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
04 | 0014/1 | Portugal · Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
05 | 0025/1 | Belgium · Blanche - City Lights
06 | 0025/1 | Australia · Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
07 | 0033/1 | Armenia · Artsvik - Fly With Me
08 | 0050/1 | Azerbaijan · Dihaj - Skeletons
09 | 0050/1 | France · Alma - Requiem
10 | 0066/1 | Romania · Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!

11 | 0066/1 | Greece · Demy - This Is Love
12 | 0066/1 | Hungary · Joci Pápai - Origo
13 | 0066/1 | Denmark · Anja - Where I Am
14 | 0100/1 | Estonia · Koit Toome & Laura - Verona
15 | 0100/1 | Ireland · Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
16 | 0100/1 | The Netherlands · OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
17 | 0100/1 | United Kingdom · Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
18 | 0100/1 | Finland · Norma John - Blackbird
19 | 0150/1 | Croatia · Jacques Houdek - My Friend
20 | 0150/1 | F.Y.R. Macedonia · Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone

21 | 0200/1 | Ukraine · O.Torvald - Time
22 | 0200/1 | Poland · Kasia Moś - Flashlight
23 | 0200/1 | Norway · JOWST - Grab The Moment
24 | 0200/1 | Iceland · Svala - Paper
25 | 0200/1 | Serbia · Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
26 | 0200/1 | Georgia · Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
27 | 0250/1 | Israel · IMRI - I Feel Alive
28 | 0250/1 | Switzerland · Timebelle - Apollo
29 | 0300/1 | Germany · Levina - Perfect Life
30 | 0300/1 | Moldova · Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma

31 | 0300/1 | Spain · Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover
32 | 0300/1 | Austria · Nathan Trent - Running On Air
33 | 0300/1 | Belarus · Naviband - Story Of My Life
34 | 0400/1 | Cyprus · Hovig - Gravity
35 | 0500/1 | Latvia · Triana Park - Line
36 | 0500/1 | Montenegro · Slavko Kalezić - Space
37 | 0500/1 | Malta · Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
38 | 0700/1 | Albania · Lindita - World
39 | 0750/1 | Czech Republic · Martina Bárta - My Turn
40 | 0750/1 | Lithuania · Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution

41 | 0750/1 | Slovenia · Omar Naber - On My Way
42 | 1000/1 | San Marino · Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night

Posted by: Liаm Apr 26 2017, 03:51 PM

1000/1 !!!!!

Posted by: LexC♀ Apr 26 2017, 03:55 PM

I'm feeling like I'll want to get some each ways on in the next few days before rehearsals start the odds fluctuating. Netherlands seems like a bargain at 100/1, I must say!

Posted by: gooddelta Apr 26 2017, 04:02 PM

Some very attractive bets in there, I'm tempted to place a couple of quid each way on The Netherlands, Finland, Estonia and Norway for a start.

Posted by: Liаm Apr 26 2017, 04:04 PM

I got my each way on Netherlands yesterday, I had the same idea of getting in before rehearsals. Thinking of a couple of quid on some others but I'm not sure I really have *that* feeling about anything that's got good enough odds to bother with...

Posted by: gooddelta Apr 29 2017, 08:34 PM

My bets for this year, have got them in prior to the rehearsals starting:

£1 each way on Norway at 100/1 (I'm sure this stands no chance, but it has a slim - very slim - chance of pulling an Everybody and appealing to those watching in a party mood, plus it's the most chart leaning/Spotify hit sounding song in the competition this year to my ears)

£1 each way on Netherlands at 50/1 (I adore this song and I'm sure they'll deliver a great performance. If viewers are in a retro mood it could scrape into the top four somehow, I'm sure the juries will back it to some extent)

£1 each way on Finland at 50/1 (something tells me the stark yet fragile nature of this song will stand out enormously and is being underrated, the odds might drop a lot when the rehearsals begin...it's not a winner but again, if everything worked in its favour I guess it could challenge for a top five)

£1 on Portugal (again, this could really flop, or it could smash the competition if the juries all give it full backing and it comes in the top five of the televote, which is possible)

£1 on Sweden (I can't work out if I think this will smash or not, but what it could do is what it did in Melfest and just appeal to everyone in an 8 points sort of way, which could be enough to sneak victory without winning on either metric)

£1 on Bulgaria (Italy's closest challenger I guess and represents the other side of the sort of thing that Spotify/chart listeners seem to love these days). Worth £1 just in case, I could certainly see it coming top three on both metrics.

£1 on Italy (hardly seems worth it at the odds, but deep down I still believe this will win and I always back the song I think will win no matter what)

Posted by: AdamAloud May 6 2017, 02:45 PM

Portugal have overtaken Bulgaria to become second favourite, still a way behind Italy though.

It's nice to see foreign language songs being the favourites, hopefully if one of them win we'll see more non-English entries next year.

Posted by: Jason May 7 2017, 05:54 PM

Yes, I'm so happy for Portugal. I really adore that song.
I'm really thinking the odds are very accurate this year and the top 2 will be Italy and Portugal. I hope Portugal wins because I don't like that italian monkey.

Posted by: Jason May 9 2017, 09:31 PM

Portugal odds still shortening.

I think Italy and Portugal will fight for the crown
Belgium and Sweden will fight for the third place
and Armenia and Azerbaijan will fight for the fifth place.

Posted by: Liаm May 9 2017, 09:43 PM

I still think Bulgaria will be a serious threat to Francesco, Armenia are on lock for top 5 if not top 3. Portugal will be 3rd or 4th.

Posted by: J▲hq May 9 2017, 09:47 PM

I seriously doubt Belgium will do that well. Look out for Bulgaria.

Lex, going back to your reasons why Italy won't win, theoretically if "Never Give Up On You" was sent by someone like Sweden or Russia, could you see it as a potential winner, does it fit your criteria? I seem to remember stuff about lyrical themes which I think Lucie might tick.

Posted by: Jason May 9 2017, 09:52 PM

Yes, I forgot Bulgaria. They are easily the strongest entry in the semi final 2 and I think Bulgaria could be top 5 in the final night.
Also believe that the teenage girls across Europe will love that boy.

Posted by: LexC♀ May 9 2017, 11:32 PM

I mean it's possible. A lot of the reasons I thought Italy wouldn't win are Italy-specific but I suppose it's possible. A big thing that's in Italy's way is the "kitsch" stuff and the fact that there isn't really an emotional factor which, in fairness, "Never Give Up On You" meets plus there's the "triumphing through adversity" theme that a lot of big scorers have had. I suppose if Russia were sending this song then it could well be a contender but I think that's true of enough songs throughout Eurovision history.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever May 10 2017, 02:40 AM

I would love Portugal to win. Italy I can't understand the runaway winner going by betting,I think I don't want Italy to win as I still remember how badly they hosted in 1991,it was such a mess and probably the worst to date.

Posted by: Liаm May 11 2017, 02:16 AM

Portugal now really catching up to Italy, when you bet £10, the return is £20 for Italy and £27.50 for Portugal! Blanche isn't far off 3rd either but I expect Bulgaria to end up shortening a fair bit after the semi in the same way that Blanche and Salvador did.

Wish I'd bet on Portugal now but until last night I just didn't think there was a point and now the odds are too short to bother (I've already made 3 bets totalling £15).

Posted by: Catderella May 11 2017, 08:21 AM

this year is too exciting.

*watches Italy landslide it Euphoria style*

Posted by: LexC♀ May 11 2017, 03:21 PM

So, I've tried to get in there before the live show tonight moves things up/down again.

I've got EW bets on Netherlands (40/1) and Sweden (22/1) to win and less lucrative ones for Poland and Belarus to come top 10.

Posted by: pippa May 11 2017, 04:00 PM

I placed an each way bet on Portugal, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan.

I placed some minor bets on who will make the top 10 in the final, including Belgium, The Netherlands and Greece.

Posted by: mdh May 11 2017, 05:33 PM

Absolutely no idea why that Portugal track is so high in the odds, the definition of drab.

Posted by: Mack May 11 2017, 06:38 PM

Odds with Coral:

Italy- Evens F
Portugal- 9-4
Bulgaria- 13-2
Belgium- 20-1
United Kingdom 20-1
Sweden 20-1
Romania 33-1
Netherlands 33-1
Armenia 33-1
Moldova 33-1
Denmark 50-1
France 66-1
Australia 66-1
Estonia 66-1
Azerbaijan 66-1
Greece 66-1
Germany 100-1
Ireland 100-1
Poland 100-1
Austria 200-1
Croatia 200-1
Hungary 200-1
Cyprus 200-1
Serbia 200-1
FYR Macedonia 200-1
Israel 200-1
Norway 200-1
Ukraine 200-1
Beraus 200-1
Malta 200-1
Switzerland 200-1
Lithuania 200-1
San Marino 250-1
Spain 400-1

Posted by: Mack May 11 2017, 06:38 PM

Racing Post normally have a guide to whom will win Eurovision on the Saturday and offer a best bet.

Posted by: Hayzayy May 11 2017, 09:28 PM

Disqualified :

Italy- Evens F
Portugal- 9-4
Bulgaria- 13-2
Belgium- 20-1
United Kingdom 20-1
Sweden 20-1
Romania 33-1
Netherlands 33-1
Armenia 33-1
Moldova 33-1
Denmark 50-1
France 66-1
Australia 66-1
Estonia 66-1
Azerbaijan 66-1
Greece 66-1
Germany 100-1
Ireland 100-1
Poland 100-1
Austria 200-1
Croatia 200-1
Hungary 200-1
Cyprus 200-1
Serbia 200-1
FYR Macedonia 200-1
Israel 200-1
Norway 200-1
Ukraine 200-1
Beraus 200-1
Malta 200-1
Switzerland 200-1
Lithuania 200-1
San Marino 250-1
Spain 400-1

Posted by: LexC♀ May 12 2017, 03:38 PM

ALERT! PORTUGAL HAS OVERTAKEN ITALY TO POLE POSITION IN THE ODDS!

Posted by: *Tim May 12 2017, 04:12 PM

One horror replacing another

Posted by: Liаm May 12 2017, 04:43 PM

Oh christ

Posted by: pippa May 12 2017, 04:48 PM

Portugal, this is your year, if they can win it is this year.

Posted by: DNQrella May 12 2017, 04:49 PM

so emotional

let this not be another france 2011 moment eh

Posted by: Lenny May 12 2017, 04:52 PM

It literally is their chance. I'd be delighted!

Posted by: LexC♀ May 12 2017, 05:27 PM

Interestingly, prior to 2016 if there was a winner that hadn't been the contest-long front runner it was the entry that was rising up the betting odds in the run up to the final (e.g. Azerbaijan 2011, Austria 2014, Finland 2006) BUT last year was the first year where this did not happen. The theory would have held if Australia had won since their odds were tumbling after Dami's performance in the semis but Ukraine ended up winning (who were high up in the odds but weren't quite THE favorite). If Portugal only manages 2nd or 3rd then it'll certainly be an interesting deviation from the established norms with the new voting system from 2016 onwards.

Posted by: Jonjo May 13 2017, 07:04 AM

This really makes me sad </3 I just don't understand why or how it's so popular?

And ofc he overtakes as soon as I've placed my bets :') (I didn't bet on him, coz I thought it was all hype and would fail to pick up the required votes he'd need lol)

Posted by: ScottyEm May 13 2017, 07:51 AM

As much as I dislike the Portuguese entry, at the end of the day, it's Portugal. Plus Lisbon will be a doddle to get to next year. I still think Sweden could do it again though...

Posted by: Liаm May 13 2017, 06:25 PM

Yeah one good thing is Lisbon flights would be quite cheap! It'd be just before my third year exams but i'd be SO tempted :/ Maybe I'll just wait for Australia to win and SBS to let us host

Posted by: RobBob May 13 2017, 06:54 PM

I've gone off the idea Sweden are even gonna be top 10, there seems to be no hype around it at all. It does have a good running order place though, but I definitely don't think it'll be top 5 anymore.