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vidcapper
post 20th December 2017, 07:40 AM
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QUOTE(Candlelit Snow @ Dec 19 2017, 05:50 PM) *
Great points

But as a socilaist, I kinda have an inkling of what it is...


I'm guessing the Venezuela kind is edited out from that? teresa.gif

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 19 2017, 05:52 PM) *
You are ignoring what young people are set to lose. Young people will see other Europeans continuing to benefit from rights such as freedom of movement and won't like the fact that they don't have the same rights.


ISTM freedom of movement is more of a privilege than a right.

In any case, I see the issue as being misrepresented - people will *still* be able to travel & work in Europe - it just won't be quite as easy.

QUOTE(Candlelit Snow @ Dec 19 2017, 05:52 PM) *
1. Reduce it to 15/16.

2. Recognise they are still affected by the changes, OR exclude under 15s when basing on population. Done.

3. P.R.


1 &2. Why should it be reduced that low? They are affected by changes, yes - but are also somewhat insulated from them, legally.

If voting age was reduced to 15, then, for example, it could be argued that 15yo's should be tried as adults, and be denied anonymity on conviction - they cannot expect to be granted adult rights without also facing adult responsibilities!

3. We agree on. smile.gif

QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Dec 19 2017, 06:34 PM) *
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2018.html

This from Electoral Calculus suggests that under the proposed boundary revisions, which follow the rules you've suggested, the Tories would lose 16 seats and Labour would lose 22. That difference is far smaller than before the 2017 election, because the vote demographics for each party have changed.


But they could just as easily change back, then we'd be back at square one.

QUOTE
Broadly speaking, the largest seats (i.e. those where the incumbent party will do well if the changes were to go through) are in Southern England and include large swathes of the London commuter belt. This is an area where Labour's vote picked up a lot in 2017, partly because of the number of young-ish people living/moving there who wanted to live in London but were priced out of doing so. The Tory vote went up a lot where they gained votes from UKIP in declining areas of the North and Midlands where the population is shrinking.
But can't you see that who wins the seat is irrelevant to how large the seat is?

Is it fair that a Western Islander's vote (electorate 21.3k) is worth more than 5 times that of someone from the Isle of Wight (electorate 110.7k)? blink.gif

QUOTE

Because the MP represents everyone in their seat, not just those eligible to vote.


I've addressed this above - those too young may not have the right to vote, but they are also sheltered from the the consequences of irresponsible actions they might undertake.

QUOTE
As I've said, that's a really simplistic picture. We do need to look at why some areas are experiencing population decline, but I don't really see how it's relevant to this discussion.
Possibly because an full examination would draw attention to some causes of demographic change that are anathema for the Left to even think about? teresa.gif

QUOTE(ChristmasEve201 @ Dec 20 2017, 12:58 AM) *

You stated taxation as stealing before there!!


To be fair, I did put that in quotes.
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Suedehead2
post 20th December 2017, 09:00 AM
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Your question about the Western Isles and the Isle of Wight is based on the premise that every vote should be equal. Under FPTP, that is simply not the case.

Of course, constituencies such as the Western Isles are protected under the boundary rules. To combine them with, for example, Orkney and Shetland would be a nonsense. Not only would it make the life of the MP very difficult, it would also make it difficult for voters to arrange a meeting with their MP.
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Soy Adrián
post 20th December 2017, 09:05 AM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 20 2017, 07:40 AM) *
But they could just as easily change back, then we'd be back at square one.

But can't you see that who wins the seat is irrelevant to how large the seat is?

Is it fair that a Western Islander's vote (electorate 21.3k) is worth more than 5 times that of someone from the Isle of Wight (electorate 110.7k)? blink.gif

I don't think you're understanding the point I'm making.

The reason that Labour's seats have generally been smaller than the Tories' for the last few elections is because of the type of people voting for the two parties, and where they live. Historically, there have been declining populations in a lot of Labour seats and rising populations in a lot of Tory ones. The demographic shift in the two parties' votes in the 2017 election means that pattern has to some extent changed.

A lot of the people who switched from Labour to Tory in 2017 (some via UKIP in 2015) live in those areas with declining populations. The party that holds those seats will be punished by the boundary changes whenever they next happen, as votes in those seats effectively won't be worth as much once the size of the seats has been equalised. Correspondingly, a lot of people who switched from Tory to Labour in 2017 are more likely to live in places where the population is going up.

There's no reason to think that this pattern is just going to go back to what it was overnight. Since the referendum, the Tories under May have started to do better broadly among white, working class voters in the North and Midlands. There's very good reasons for that, which are linked to the way the party has positioned itself compared to how it did under Cameron. Likewise, Labour has surged in a lot of the South (and not just London) as it's started to do better among the socially liberal middle classes and university-educated under 40's who have been priced out of London and find themselves renting in places like Luton and Reading. That (as was the original point of this thread) also doesn't look like changing, as Corbyn appeals to a lot of these people and the Tories' preoccupation with Brexit means that a lot of their issues like the housing crisis are going to go unsolved.

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 20 2017, 07:40 AM) *
I've addressed this above - those too young may not have the right to vote, but they are also sheltered from the the consequences of irresponsible actions they might undertake.

They very much aren't sheltered from the actions of their MP, though.

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 20 2017, 07:40 AM) *
Possibly because an full examination would draw attention to some causes of demographic change that are anathema for the Left to even think about? teresa.gif

Poverty and industrial decline? It's only the left that is talking about those issues!
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Popchartfreak
post 20th December 2017, 09:36 AM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 20 2017, 07:40 AM) *
ISTM freedom of movement is more of a privilege than a right.
In any case, I see the issue as being misrepresented - people will *still* be able to travel & work in Europe - it just won't be quite as easy.


You underestimate how strongly non-Brexiters feel. YOU may see it as a privilege we see it as a right that has been taken away. Right now we can go and work or live anywhere in Europe. In 2 or 4 years we won't be able to. We can only APPLY to enter the country to work on whatever terms and conditions are imposed on foreigners, and we won't have a right to buy a house and move to Spain, for example.

So you say "not quite as easy" as if it's just a bit of paperwork to go through. It isn't. That right has been removed and there is no reason to suppose that a young person from the UK will have any more right to go and work or live in France, for example, than someone from China.

The highly-skilled ones will still be able to, but the lower-skilled or retired won't (unless they are rich). So more old people to care for.....

So your statement is utterly wrong. You only see it that way because you have no desire to leave the country that you are benefitting from (ie not working). Those who can't afford a house or find a decently-paid job in the UK no longer have an option to try elsewhere in Europe.
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Suedehead2
post 20th December 2017, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Dec 20 2017, 09:36 AM) *
You underestimate how strongly non-Brexiters feel. YOU may see it as a privilege we see it as a right that has been taken away. Right now we can go and work or live anywhere in Europe. In 2 or 4 years we won't be able to. We can only APPLY to enter the country to work on whatever terms and conditions are imposed on foreigners, and we won't have a right to buy a house and move to Spain, for example.

So you say "not quite as easy" as if it's just a bit of paperwork to go through. It isn't. That right has been removed and there is no reason to suppose that a young person from the UK will have any more right to go and work or live in France, for example, than someone from China.

The highly-skilled ones will still be able to, but the lower-skilled or retired won't (unless they are rich). So more old people to care for.....

So your statement is utterly wrong. You only see it that way because you have no desire to leave the country that you are benefitting from (ie not working). Those who can't afford a house or find a decently-paid job in the UK no longer have an option to try elsewhere in Europe.

You've saved me the trouble of replying biggrin.gif
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vidcapper
post 20th December 2017, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 20 2017, 09:00 AM) *
Your question about the Western Isles and the Isle of Wight is based on the premise that every vote should be equal. Under FPTP, that is simply not the case.

Of course, constituencies such as the Western Isles are protected under the boundary rules. To combine them with, for example, Orkney and Shetland would be a nonsense. Not only would it make the life of the MP very difficult, it would also make it difficult for voters to arrange a meeting with their MP.


They might not be of equal value, but we should be striving to ensure they *should* be!

How about : For ''protected' seats that are allowed to have too-small electorates, their MP's HoC vote should be downgraded in line with the size differential?


QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Dec 20 2017, 09:05 AM) *
I don't think you're understanding the point I'm making.

The reason that Labour's seats have generally been smaller than the Tories' for the last few elections is because of the type of people voting for the two parties, and where they live. Historically, there have been declining populations in a lot of Labour seats and rising populations in a lot of Tory ones. The demographic shift in the two parties' votes in the 2017 election means that pattern has to some extent changed.

Poverty and industrial decline? It's only the left that is talking about those issues!


Actually, that pattern hasn't really changed : in 2010, 2015 & 2017, the average electorate in Tory-held seats has been consistently 3.8k more than in Labour ones.

The above are *results* of demographic decline , it is the *causes* of it, that the Left are unwilling to fully address.

QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Dec 20 2017, 09:36 AM) *
You underestimate how strongly non-Brexiters feel. YOU may see it as a privilege we see it as a right that has been taken away. Right now we can go and work or live anywhere in Europe. In 2 or 4 years we won't be able to. We can only APPLY to enter the country to work on whatever terms and conditions are imposed on foreigners, and we won't have a right to buy a house and move to Spain, for example.


I disagree - a *right* in this context is something that has been long-established - which is certainly not the case for freedom of movement, especially in the case of the former Soviet-bloc countries. A privilege is something that has been granted, that didn't exist before.
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Suedehead2
post 20th December 2017, 10:27 AM
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What utter nonsense. As a gay man I now have the right to marry another man. Just because it has only the case for a few years does not mean it is not a right.
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Soy Adrián
post 20th December 2017, 10:50 AM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 20 2017, 10:15 AM) *
Actually, that pattern hasn't really changed : in 2010, 2015 & 2017, the average electorate in Tory-held seats has been consistently 3.8k more than in Labour ones.

The above are *results* of demographic decline , it is the *causes* of it, that the Left are unwilling to fully address.

Care to say what you think those causes are?
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vidcapper
post 20th December 2017, 11:38 AM
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Dec 20 2017, 10:50 AM) *
Care to say what you think those causes are?


You might want to prepare your 'safe space' wink.gif

Seriously though, It's the same thing that has caused the majority of the UK's population increase in recent years, namely net immigration.

Before you jump all over me for daring to suggest it, try the URL below for an academic anaysis/projection.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/r...ulation-growth/


This post has been edited by vidsanta: 20th December 2017, 11:40 AM
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Soy Adrián
post 20th December 2017, 11:55 AM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 20 2017, 11:38 AM) *
You might want to prepare your 'safe space' wink.gif

Seriously though, It's the same thing that has caused the majority of the UK's population increase in recent years, namely net immigration.

Before you jump all over me for daring to suggest it, try the URL below for an academic anaysis/projection.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/r...ulation-growth/

Well done, again demonstrating that you have no clue what a safe space is actually for. No one is offended by a university briefing paper.

Yes, net migration has caused the country's population to rise. I don't think anyone here ever denied that. The key point that several of us have tried to make is that immigration is generally a positive thing, and the country is a better place because of it.

A growing population is generally a good thing - by global standards the UK's population increase has been relatively modest. Public services are strained because they've not been invested in properly. Most key services would actually be in a worse state with lower migration - because a high proportion of foreign workers end up in the NHS, for example, and boost the 'supply' of health services more than immigrants in general affect the 'demand', for want of a better term.

Congratulations, by the way, on making another seemingly unrelated topic all about immigration or the EU. It's almost like you're doing it deliberately because you don't have anything else to say.
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Long Dong Silver
post 20th December 2017, 12:01 PM
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Venezuela cannot be said to be aocialist by any tre metric, and besides its case i a liiil different, having its economy destroyed by the most powerful country just north of its borders. Rhat Daily Mail 'argumenr' holds no water.
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vidcapper
post 20th December 2017, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE(Candlelit Snow @ Dec 20 2017, 12:01 PM) *
Venezuela cannot be said to be aocialist by any tre metric, and besides its case i a liiil different, having its economy destroyed by the most powerful country just north of its borders. Rhat Daily Mail 'argumenr' holds no water.


Oh great, another Americanophobic. rolleyes.gif

I've heard this argument so many times - any 'socialist' country that fails is not *really* socialist, as it simply does not fit with the rose-coloured view that adherents have of the ideology?

Name me *one* socialist country that has both the same economic success *and* the personal freedoms that most Western countries enjoy?
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Long Dong Silver
post 20th December 2017, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 20 2017, 12:20 PM) *
Oh great, another Americanophobic. rolleyes.gif

I've heard this argument so many times - any 'socialist' country that fails is not *really* socialist, as it simply does not fit with the rose-coloured view that adherents have of the ideology?

Name me *one* socialist country that has both the same economic success *and* the personal freedoms that most Western countries enjoy?


Portugal.

In fact, all of Europe and Scandinavia are more socialist than the UK with better quality of life and better public utilities and services. IS will be soon under Sanders too.
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Brett-Butler
post 20th December 2017, 01:38 PM
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QUOTE(Candlelit Snow @ Dec 20 2017, 01:28 PM) *
Portugal.

In fact, all of Europe and Scandinavia are more socialist than the UK with better quality of life and better public utilities and services. IS will be soon under Sanders too.


Bernie Sanders becoming head of Islamic State would be a weird plot twist to an already crazy year.
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Steve201
post 20th December 2017, 09:52 PM
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I would argue since 1945 Britain has been democratic socialist for long periods!
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Popchartfreak
post 20th December 2017, 10:02 PM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 20 2017, 10:15 AM) *
I disagree - a *right* in this context is something that has been long-established - which is certainly not the case for freedom of movement, especially in the case of the former Soviet-bloc countries. A privilege is something that has been granted, that didn't exist before.


What Suedey said, plus...

Well subsidising people without a job is historically a recent thing. How about we take away that privilege and see how you get on?
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vidcapper
post 21st December 2017, 07:01 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 20 2017, 10:27 AM) *
What utter nonsense. As a gay man I now have the right to marry another man. Just because it has only the case for a few years does not mean it is not a right.


I think we need to explore the difference between rights & privileges - this article should provide a starting point :

https://voicesofliberty.com/2015/04/22/how-...nd-a-privilege/

The pertinent part...

A privilege is a special entitlement granted to a restricted group or person, either by birth or on a conditional basis, and can be revoked. By contrast, a right is irrevocable and inherently held by all human beings. It is self-evident and universal under the laws of nature.

QUOTE(ChristmasEve201 @ Dec 20 2017, 09:52 PM) *
I would argue since 1945 Britain has been democratic socialist for long periods!


I would describe it as a mixed economy - with a balance of the more beneficial elements of both socialism & capitalism alleviating the worst excesses of both.

QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Dec 20 2017, 10:02 PM) *
What Suedey said, plus...

Well subsidising people without a job is historically a recent thing. How about we take away that privilege and see how you get on?


Since I'm not on the dole, it wouldn't bother me.
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Doctor Blind
post 21st December 2017, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 21 2017, 07:01 AM) *
Since I'm not on the dole, it wouldn't bother me.


Being in receipt of a pension is still being in receipt of a benefit.

With regard to migration - the benefits are well documented so I won't make that point here - however, where I think you may agree with me is that the balance and speed of migration has not been handled well by the previous Labour government. If you go to places like Boston you'll quite clearly see that these are places with very little investment and a huge influx of populations from Poland, or other eastern European states. It is far too easy for those who live in multicultural and heavily invested cities like London to call-out those who complain about migration as being 'racist' or 'intolerent' when their community services have been put under immense strain from the sheer volume of migration and complete lack of investment.

Personally I think it is a combination of the global financial crash, and the subsequent austerity that have worsened this problem and pushed us to this point. Failure to recognise this has exacerbated the problem and driven things like the Brexit vote.
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vidcapper
post 21st December 2017, 11:29 AM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 21 2017, 10:33 AM) *
Being in receipt of a pension is still being in receipt of a benefit.




True, but doesn't carry the same stigma as being on the dole.
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Popchartfreak
post 21st December 2017, 10:18 PM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 21 2017, 07:01 AM) *
I think we need to explore the difference between rights & privileges - this article should provide a starting point :

https://voicesofliberty.com/2015/04/22/how-...nd-a-privilege/

The pertinent part...

A privilege is a special entitlement granted to a restricted group or person, either by birth or on a conditional basis, and can be revoked. By contrast, a right is irrevocable and inherently held by all human beings. It is self-evident and universal under the laws of nature.

Since I'm not on the dole, it wouldn't bother me.


In that case lets get rid of pensions and stop those sponging not-even-old-yet people taking advantage of their early privileges, which are not a god-given right and are quite a recent thing actually.
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