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Posted by: Brett-Butler 28th April 2017, 09:03 PM

In General Elections, the "Portillo Moment" happens when a high-profile MP ends up surprisingly and unexpectedly losing their seats, and takes its name from the 1997 General Election, when Conservative cabinet minister Michael Portillo lost his seat during Labour's landslide victory that year.

More recent "Portillo moments" happened in 2010, when DUP lead Peter Robinson lost his seat to Naomi Long of the Alliance Party (and to a lesser extent, Lembit Obik & Charles Clarke losing their seats), and 2015 saw Ed Balls, Vince Cable & the sadly departed Charles Kennedy among others losing their seats.

So what do you think will be the "Portillo moment" of the 2017 General Election? One suspects it will be someone within the Labour Party, quite possibly within what remains of their shadow cabinet, given the current predicted Tory landslide, but it would not surprise me if one of the higher profile SNP politicians gets the chop.

Posted by: Suedehead2 28th April 2017, 09:06 PM

Are we assuming the Shadow Cabinet on election day will be the same as it is now? Not that many of them are anywhere near household names.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 28th April 2017, 09:21 PM

You've got a point - the members of the Shadow Cabinet that you could call household names (McDonnell, Diane Abbott, Thornberry) all have 10,000+ majorities, so any of them losing their seat would be rather unlikely (although Lib Dems were close in 2010 & 2005 in Islington South, so you never know). Shadow Defense Secretary Clive Lewis has been mooted as a probable unseating, but the odd Question Time appearance aside, he's not a well known name among the general public.

Posted by: LexC♀ 28th April 2017, 09:26 PM

If there's any luck, Kate Hoey should lose Vauxhall. Other than that most of the "big" names on either side have pretty safe seats so only if the Tories are winning so hard that they're winning Hackney I doubt there's going to be much in the way of Portillo moments.

The SNP Westminster Leader Angus Robertson could potentially lose Moray if the Tories are having a real revival in Scotland but that's by no means a done deal.

Posted by: Tippin Virginia 28th April 2017, 09:29 PM

Hmm none are famous right now, except Dianne Aboot, so not sure ...

I think some Lib Dems are RE contesting their Scottish seats, so we could get an ANTI-Portillo moment, with dumped famous MPs coming back.

Posted by: Soy Adrián 28th April 2017, 09:45 PM

It might have been Goldsmith had he not already been booted out in the by-election. A second go around wouldn't go amiss.

Posted by: Steve201 30th April 2017, 01:07 AM

Douglas Alexander losing to the youngest MP was the Portillo moment in 2015 for
Me!

Posted by: Qassändra 5th May 2017, 11:17 AM

I don't think it will be a high profile MP, but I think the Tories winning Sedgefield would be an equivalent 'oh shit' moment.

Posted by: Danny 9th May 2017, 04:58 PM

If the council elections last week are any guide (big if), Alex Salmond is in big danger of losing his seat.