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> UK By-election Thread, 2017-2018
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Aug 30 2019, 11:01 PM
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QUOTE(Harve @ Aug 30 2019, 02:54 AM) *
Shetland result:

LD: 48% (-19% on 2016)
SNP: 32% (+9%)
INDs x4: 13% (+13%)
CON: 3.6% (-0.1%)
GRN 1.6% (+1.6%)
LAB: 1.3% (-4.6%)
UKIP: 0.5% (+0.5%)

Against my prediction:
Notable in that its by-election turnout was higher than any general election turnout for the seat. Normally, by-election turnouts are much lower.

Only the second time in a Holyrood vote has both labour and the Tories lost their deposit.

Lot of suggestions of a unionist tactical vote shoring up that LD figure. I’m thrilled with the SNP vote, it’s come in way higher than my expectations. That’s a really solid result for us in the northern islands and a 14% swing to the government after 12 years in power is remarkable. Any one know of any similarly large swings after a long period in government?
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Steve201
post Aug 31 2019, 01:01 AM
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Why are the LDs so popular up there?
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Harve
post Aug 31 2019, 09:11 AM
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Aug 31 2019, 12:01 AM) *
Only the second time in a Holyrood vote has both labour and the Tories lost their deposit.

The Labour vote is the lowest in any Westminster or devolved government election, beating their 1.7% share in Winchester in 1997.
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Suedehead2
post Sep 10 2019, 07:39 AM
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The Labour MP for Bassetlaw has been given a seat in the House of Lords to take up a position as "Anti-Semitism Tsar", a strange title given the attitude of the real Tsars towards Jews. That will mean a byelection in the Derbyshire seat. It has traditionally been a safe Labour seat although the Tories reduced the majority to under 5,000 in 2017. The Lib Dems were a very distant third with just 2.2% of the vote. Even in good years the Lib Dems have only got into the low teens.

John Bercow's resignation as Speaker at the end of October will mean (according to convention) a byelection in Buckingham. It was a Labour seat in the 1960s (Robert Maxwell was the MP) but had been a safe Tory seat for a long time when Bercow was made Speaker.

Jared O'Mara has delayed his resignation as MP for Sheffield Hallam. With Parliament now prorogued, he cannot stand down until October.

All the above will, of course, be moot if there is a general election in November.
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Harve
post Sep 19 2019, 08:33 PM
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Some interesting council by-elections tonight:



Conservative defences:

Canterbury: A more Conservative, suburban part of a Westminster constituency won for the first time by Labour in 2017. Look out for where that 47% Lab + Lib + Green vote goes.

Somerset: Traditionally Lib Dem, but not necessarily Remain-voting. A more suburban ward in a constituency that's overall fairly rural.

Wiltshire: There could be a bit of a Lib Dem swing, but these villages should remain comfortably Tory.

Labour defences:

Fulham: In Westminster, belongs to a constituency which had the 6th highest Tory vote in 2010. It's still the safest Tory seat in inner London, but it could be lost next election. This is a wealthy, multicultural, Remain-voting ward that used to return Tory councillors. Is Labour the natural party for Fulham or are the Lib Dems a better fit for such an area?

Liverpool: Working class ward on the edge of the city. No real challenge expected here, but it could preempt a dire turnout in the next general election.

North Lanarkshire: Scottish Labour have been doing dreadful lately, but have been surviving best in areas like here: working class, yes-voting (!) Central Belt hinterland.

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Individual council by-elections can have some wild results that don't reflect national trends, but agglomerated together, they have reflected polling trends. These are the swings so far since May:

CON: 27.8% (-4.9%)
LDM: 27.7% (+10.8%)
LAB: 18% (-7.9%)

This is an average taken from the 54 by-elections. It won't be a completely representative sample of the national picture.
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Suedehead2
post Sep 20 2019, 09:59 AM
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The Lib Dems gained the Somerset seat. It is a two-member ward where there was only one Lib Dem candidate last time (who toped the poll). That makes the percentages shown a little misleading.

The Lib Dem vote was up significantly in all the contests apart from one where the party didn't stand last time and got only 5.5% yesterday. The Labour vote was down everywhere (apart from the seat where they had no candidate). The anti-Tory vote in the Canterbury seat went overwhelmingly to the Lib Dems, but not enough to beat the Tories.
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