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 Political predictions for 2024 |
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 31st December 2023, 10:26 AM
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#1
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,421 User: 12,929                 |
What political based predictions do you have for the year upcoming?
Plenty of elections to look forward to, including the American, British and Putin's coronation march. Many things about these, like the date of the UK election, remain to be confirmed. How many by-elections, scandals, legal challenges etc do you see coming trure in 2024? My outside prediction is that the election is actually in summer (like 2017 but a little later), while the Tories plan for an autumn election, they're roundly humiliated for not calling it in May as everyone expects and finally facing their obliteration as reality, they go while it's still warm enough for everyone to not be completely pissed off at them - doesn't work though. |
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31st December 2023, 01:26 PM
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#2
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 The owls are not what they seem
Pronouns: He/him
Joined: 11 July 2009 Posts: 37,133 User: 9,232 
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Trump avoids jail despite growing charges and gets the Republican nomination because America, still loses to Biden though not as much as one may expect and will still claim he won. And that's me being optimistic x
UK election will be later than usual as Tories desperately try to cling on to power, they'll be continued culture war bullshit weaved into the election narrative, but it doesn't quite work and the scourges go out (though a smaller majority than the polls are predicting probably due to some Mail-led media scandal that they'll attempt to link to Starmer). |
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31st December 2023, 04:20 PM
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#3
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 Right in front of my salad?!
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 7 March 2006 Posts: 82,479 User: 12
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Trump will win the US election easily (sadly and worryingly).
UK election in the Autumn (September I reckon) and Labour will just scrape in. |
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31st December 2023, 08:37 PM
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#4
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 BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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dp
This post has been edited by Smint: 31st December 2023, 08:39 PM |
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31st December 2023, 08:37 PM
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#5
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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Genuinely am surprised by those who say that Trump will definitely win the next election considering he lost badly in 2020 and he's even more insane and proven to be a criminal. Yes a few polls have him ahead over Biden but that can be just mid term blues - it's not Starmer level of lead over Sunak.
I predict that Labour will win but on a low turnout and throughout the campaign he won't offer any concessions to the left and does crap like praise Thatcher, go anti trans etc etc...the right wing press will attack but not full force as they know Sunak is a dud. Braverman or Badenoch to take over the Conservatives afterwards but they are warming the seat for Farage sadly. Immigration and anti asylum rhetoric will be normalised with far right figures such as Douglas Murray (who is already there), Tommy Robinson, Katie Hopkins etc being normalised in right wing media. Trans people will have a terrible year too but not quite as demonised as asylum seekers. The cost of living crisis will still be horrific but like the climate change will be pretty much ignored by the media despite being the elephant in the room. |
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31st December 2023, 10:09 PM
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#6
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 is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,094 User: 8,300
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The Trump-Biden polls are disconcerting and shouldn't be dismissed but I'm not dooming about it too much just yet - there's been a consistent trend of Democrats overperforming in special elections lately and they did overperform the polls in 2022 as well (albeit still losing the House, but they were expected to lose it by a much wider margin).
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31st December 2023, 10:44 PM
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#7
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,163 User: 5,138
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I agree with Bre the centre in America has turned against the extremist Trumpian positions as has been saw in the last few election nights!
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1st January 2024, 10:20 AM
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#8
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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I know that Brett-Butler’s quasi-contrarian, and inevitably wrong political predictions are a highlight of the New Year, so without further ado, here are my forecasts for 2024 -
- a General Election will be called for June 2024. Labour come out the biggest party with a majority, albeit a slim one that only just creeps over the 325 threshold. They have difficulty getting their 1st budget through, due to an “awkward squad” of 10 Corbynite and post-Corbynite who refuse to endorse Starmer, claiming he’s too “right wing”. The possibility of defections for this lot remains a strong possibility in 2024, due to Jeremy Corbyn remaining in parliament, Corbyn standing under the “Peace and Justice Party” banner. The budget eventually gets through due to a few concessions, as well as support from the Lib Dem’s and SNP on a ‘policy by policy’ basis. The Lib Dems have their best election in a generation and climb to the 3rd most seats in parliament, with the SNP reduced to single figures, mainly due to Labour winning a strong plurality of Scottish seats. - Neither Trump nor Biden will stand in 2024. Although SCOTUS declares that Trump can stand in all 50 states, the confusion leads to the only other main contender, Nikki Haley, winning the nomination. Although Biden faces calls to stand down, he does not do so until he is forced to, at which point it is too late to run a full primary, meaning that vice president Kamala Harris becomes the default candidate for the Democrats. Thanks to independent candidate Robert Kennedy pulling just enough votes away from Harris in swing states, Nikki Haley becomes the first female person of colour to be US president. - the NI Assembly gets back up and running in September, after PM Starmer sets in motion legislation that would lead to an Assembly Election if it is not restored by the end of that month. - the 2024 EU elections sees a very sharp rise in extremist parties all across the European block, and this new voting rump leads the EU to bring in a border policy so extreme that it would even make Suella Braveman blush. As a result, we see strong left-wing backlash to the EU (although crucially, not until the Tories are out of power), and it puts the brakes on Labour calling for an effort to rejoin the EU. (Although somewhat hypocritically, Starmer does flirt with the idea of holding asylum seekers offshore to be processed in 2024, although this comes to nothing). - even though Labour expressed support for PR in their manifesto, it doesn’t form part of their plan for government, as their politicians know what side their bread is buttered on. - the Greens lose their only MP. - Kemi Badenoch becomes Tory leader, and leads the party to parity with Labour in opinion polls. At least 1 Labour Party member temporarily loses the whip in the year for remarks about Badenoch that are perceived to be racist against her. |
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2nd January 2024, 02:00 AM
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#9
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,112 User: 18,639
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Trump imprisoned
Tump rules from jail after a narrow EC win over Biden. Libs are SHOCKED by how a conman outsider can beat a neolib, even though the neolib also has awful policies for the working man/ non-rich. They still claim that Bernie wouldn't have won  Labour elected with a 25 seat majority Corbyn launches a new party after the election that consistently gets 20% in the polls |
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2nd January 2024, 05:11 PM
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#10
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,421 User: 12,929 |
For America, I do feel that legal action against Trump being able to run will dominate the primary season, but I feel we will emerge with a rematch inevitably, with Biden blowing out Trump eventually in the general in part because of court cases being upheld (and the controversial position of some states not having a Republican on the ballot, with perhaps Trump getting around that by putting his VP as the main nominee and electors promising their votes from that state to Trump if won, that seems like the exact sort of legal f***ery that the current SCOTUS would accept as being fine and dandy)
anyway that seems like the standard direction of things - could be changed with an unexpected event. Labour I'm predicting a seat total of somewhere between 360 to 420, it's not going to be close and we will see the largest new influx of MPs in Parliament likely for a generation, it'll be somewhat of a shallow lead just like the Con 2019 one but it'll be enough to pass Labour's agenda, whatever that may be on any given day. |
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3rd January 2024, 10:02 PM
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#11
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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UK Politics: I think Sunak will swerve a spring election (much to the annoyance of many, but likely Labour will spin this as 'Sunak being too weak and scared to face the electorate') and will try and hang on as late as possible to call it, to ensure that the cooling inflation rate has long enough to bed-in for ppl to notice a difference to their bills/finances etc.. I'm thinking the original date of September looks most likely now as it'll give a nice spring into conference party season but could also see him waiting until November.
This GE could still be a potential wipeout for the Conservatives (like that of Canada’s Progressive Conservative Party in 1993 - who retained just two (2) seats!) by being squeezed by Reform and allowing the Liberal Democrats and Labour to narrowly nick a large number of seats combined with some very strong tactical voting to devastating effect. This is a low probability, I think much more likely is a more modest win for Keir Starmer of the order of 350-380 seats, but don't completely rule out a landslide if the economy struggles to recover and interest rates/inflation remains sticky at 3-4%. US Politics: I mean this could be absolutely chaotic, even by recent standards, I think it'd be foolish to predict anything at this point beyond Donald Trump becoming the Republican nominee (this is baked in) - I'd hope that Biden could narrowly win but it's going to take more than a Taylor Swift endorsement (not sure if this may even be counter-productive?) to secure victory, and I really do think that a rematch would end up similar to 2016 with Trump losing the popular vote but still managing to rack up enough EC votes to win. The Maine and Colorado bans just feed in to his victim narrative, likely motivate/mobilise his base and IMO they aren't states that would naturally endorse him strongly anyway.. they will likely be overturned I expect. A Trump second term would be a lot worse than the first one as he'll no doubt be out for petty revenge. The US standing (already falling on the world stage) would continue to fall away against the rising powers in Asia. I don't want to think about the ongoing Ukraine/Russia or Gaza wars because it's just too depressing. I imagine it wouldn't take much for it to degenerate into a wider and more protracted war across the Middle East at this point. As for Ukraine, things will become much worse if the US ends up under the control of the Republican Party who would like nothing more than to end funding. Something Putin intends to hold out for I fear. |
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6th January 2024, 09:44 AM
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#12
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Labour win the election with a majority even bigger than 1997 and Britain gets it's first female Chancellor.
Kemi Badenoch becomes Tory leader after an all female party run off with Suella. Trump won't be jailed as the charges against him are all nonsense anyway and they'd never jail a former President. Biden beats Trump again and will hand over to Harris early in 2027. You know I'm a huge Trump fan but just don't see him winning again. |
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7th January 2024, 03:08 PM
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#13
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,112 User: 18,639
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Unfortnuately, due to inflation and Republicans bein bought by Outin and pushin an anti-interventionalist line, Trump will win. He'll squeak over 300, maybe 304, ec votes, helped by the deteriorating electoral system too.
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7th January 2024, 03:10 PM
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#14
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,112 User: 18,639
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And even if by some miraclethe fascist prick loses, the problem still persists; he'll just run again in 28!!democrsts need to start adppting economic policies for ALL to end his populist nonsense.
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28th January 2024, 12:16 AM
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#15
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 22 September 2022
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The UK election will be late in the year - November / December. Sunak will try and hold on as long as possible. The outcome will be a lot closer than the polls are predicting currently but I suspect labour will be the biggest party with a small majority or hung parliament. They will be elected on the promise that our statutory services need urgent reform but given the dire state of uk public finances, they will struggle to bring about the changes required without a significant change in policy direction. What is needed is a complete change in the redistribution of wealth and for too long, government policies have excarbated social inequalities in wealth particularly during the last 14 years.
In the states, I think it could go either way and difficult to call but may depend on the outcomes of Trumps court cases. If he is convicted, I think people will begin to turn their backs on him and Biden will get a 2nd term. If the cases are delayed or he gets away with it, we could well be looking at Trump 2.0. Biden’s policies have been very unpopular and unless there is a change of course or leader then Trump re-election is more likely. This post has been edited by neill2407: 30th January 2024, 11:42 AM |
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14th March 2024, 01:08 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,678 User: 3,272
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Bit late, but....
Following defeat in the general election, Rishi Sunak announces that he will be leaving parliament immediately and will be moving to the USA. The chair of the 1922 committee (whoever that will be as Graham Brady is not standing at the election) says that deputy leader Oliver Dowden will be interim leader and that the election of a new leader will be paused "for a period of reflection". Richmond Conservatives choose their candidate for the by-election - Boris Johnson. Of course, the hope is that the tactic backfires as he suffers a humiliating defeat in the by-election. |
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14th March 2024, 02:50 PM
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#17
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 Break the tension
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 89,016 User: 51
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Mar 14 2024, 01:08 PM)  Richmond Conservatives choose their candidate for the by-election - Boris Johnson. Of course, the hope is that the tactic backfires as he suffers a humiliating defeat in the by-election. Oh please let all of this happen, that would be so delicious 🙏 |
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14th March 2024, 03:53 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 February 2007
Posts: 14,306 User: 3,002
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Mar 14 2024, 01:08 PM) The chair of the 1922 committee (whoever that will be as Graham Brady is not standing at the election) says that deputy leader Oliver Dowden will be interim leader and that the election of a new leader will be paused "for a period of reflection". Dowden would get torn to pieces by the hard right of the party  Be interesting to see who's left after hopefully a complete collapse for the Tories (The word collapse now just makes me think of Beyonce now after all the talk over the last week )
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14th March 2024, 03:56 PM
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#19
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,574 User: 124,514
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I really wouldn't rule out Farage becoming leader of the Tories possibly after Badenoch does it for a while but fails to impress as although she's undeniably awful is not quite as nasty or the right colour for the Tory voters. She'll be painted as "woke" before too long like Sunak has often become.
Mind you they have to be an MP don't they - I'm not even sure if he'd win the most comfortable by election they can find so maybe not.
This post has been edited by Smint: 14th March 2024, 03:57 PM |
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14th March 2024, 04:31 PM
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#20
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,112 User: 18,639
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Farage becomes a Tory mp. Future pm
 Trump reelected by 300 electoral votes, similar to vs Hillary Labour win, but it is made hard by far righr voter suppression in the forn of voter id, plus the far right boundary changes No talk of left wing policies, due to the British establishment destroying Corbyn |
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