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France Presidential Election 2017

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Cal View member profile	29th November 2016, 09:24 PM Post #21
BuzzJack Platinum Member Joined: 27 April 2008 Posts: 9,962 User: 5,964	Wait, he wants everyone to work four extra hours per week unpaid? The only good thing is that he'll take votes away from the FN, but I think Juppé would've won against Le Pen regardless. Shame.


Qween View member profile	29th November 2016, 10:39 PM Post #22
Schlagerdrottningen Joined: 23 August 2010 Posts: 31,877 User: 11,709	I'm going to IGNORE each and every poll I see for this (not that Fillon is an especially good candidate, but YOU KNOW) because humanity has now truly proven itself to be beyond reasonable decision making.


Qassändra View member profile	30th November 2016, 10:38 AM Post #23
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	Well, the polls did predict the result for Hillary within the margin of error at a national level. The capacity for a blindsiding was more down to there not being any reputable polls out of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania after the Comey announcement.


Soy Adrián View member profile	30th November 2016, 12:05 PM Post #24
I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me Joined: 6 February 2010 Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596	It must be incredibly frustrating for polling companies to explain that their work doesn't mainly consist of reading tea leaves. Even the fact that the results of the referendum and the US election were so close to the edge of the margin of error was mainly because they undersampled angry white people. Doesn't bode well for France, that.


Harve View member profile	30th November 2016, 06:55 PM Post #25
Cœur poids plume Joined: 3 November 2007 Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718	Only the 2015 GE polling was truly wrong.


Danny View member profile	30th November 2016, 08:27 PM Post #26
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	It's not so much that the polls are inaccurate at measuring opinion at that very moment (you guys are right that the polls JUST BEFORE the US election and the EU referendum were not too far off the mark), but they are absolutely terrible at predicting what opinion is going to look like months before an election/referendum. Again, even if the eve-of-election polls were alright for Trump and for Brexit, if you look around 6 months before they were predicting landslide defeats for both, and the same with the 2014 Scottish referendum. What happens time and time again right now is, when there's an anti-establishment option on the ballot, they gain more and more momentum when the proper campaigns start and when people's desperation for "change" starts growing. Which is why the French polls right now arent much comfort.


Brett-Butler View member profile	30th November 2016, 08:35 PM Post #27
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455	Keeping in mind that nearly every single political prediction I've made this year has turned out to be catastrophically wrong, I'm still going to go out and make a prediction on this - Marine Le Pen is not going to be the next president of France, and The Republicans will win the seat. In the next few weeks I imagine the attacks on her and FN will move away from criticisms of FN's undeniable racism, and instead focusing on sexist attacks on Le Pen herself in order to stop her becoming the first female president of France, which will be more effective.


Danny View member profile	30th November 2016, 08:38 PM Post #28
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Nov 30 2016, 08:35 PM) Keeping in mind that nearly every single political prediction I've made this year has turned out to be catastrophically wrong, I'm still going to go out and make a prediction on this - Marine Le Pen is not going to be the next president of France, and The Republicans will win the seat. In the next few weeks I imagine the attacks on her and FN will move away from criticisms of FN's undeniable racism, and instead focusing on sexist attacks on Le Pen herself in order to stop her becoming the first female president of France, which will be more effective. That seems like a good way to make women (who are for obvious reasons usually a weak spot in the far Right's support) a lot more sympathetic to her.


T83:Y96 View member profile	30th November 2016, 08:44 PM Post #29
My mother said, to get things done, you better not mess with Maj Joined: 28 October 2014 Posts: 5,765 User: 21,319	QUOTE(Cal @ Nov 29 2016, 10:24 PM) Wait, he wants everyone to work four extra hours per week unpaid? Yes he does. Which will make more money for businesses without them having to pay their employees extra. Although to be fair to Fillon, Juppé also wanted a return to the 39 hour work week. The important difference to note is that he wanted to accompagny that increase of work with a proportional increase of salaries.


Brett-Butler View member profile	30th November 2016, 08:47 PM Post #30
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455	QUOTE(Danny @ Nov 30 2016, 09:38 PM) That seems like a good way to make women (who are for obvious reasons usually a weak spot in the far Right's support) a lot more sympathetic to her. I wouldn't think so. I very much doubt many women would vote for her (or any other woman for that matter) for no other reason than her being a woman (or being the 1st female PM). They might use it as a "fake because" to justify their vote, or convince others to vote for their preferred canidate, but I doubt that as of itself would be a defining factor. Unless someone knows better than me?


Qassändra View member profile	30th November 2016, 09:06 PM Post #31
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	QUOTE(Danny @ Nov 30 2016, 08:27 PM) It's not so much that the polls are inaccurate at measuring opinion at that very moment (you guys are right that the polls JUST BEFORE the US election and the EU referendum were not too far off the mark), but they are absolutely terrible at predicting what opinion is going to look like months before an election/referendum. Again, even if the eve-of-election polls were alright for Trump and for Brexit, if you look around 6 months before they were predicting landslide defeats for both, and the same with the 2014 Scottish referendum. What happens time and time again right now is, when there's an anti-establishment option on the ballot, they gain more and more momentum when the proper campaigns start and when people's desperation for "change" starts growing. Which is why the French polls right now arent much comfort. Good point. On the other hand, if it's the predicted Fillon-Le Pen top two, arguably huge change is happening either way: it's just a matter of whether people would rather Thatcherite economic reform or anti-immigrant protectionism. Though the presumed answer to that doesn't give me a great deal of comfort either.


Suedehead2 View member profile	1st December 2016, 07:25 PM Post #32
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,675 User: 3,272	Francois Hollande has announced that he will not be standing for re-election.


Harve View member profile	2nd December 2016, 01:22 AM Post #33
Cœur poids plume Joined: 3 November 2007 Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718	Mélenchon numero uno.


Umi View member profile	4th December 2016, 05:02 AM Post #34
All I See br29 Joined: 17 August 2011 Posts: 12,907 User: 14,659	QUOTE(Qassändra @ Nov 30 2016, 09:06 PM) On the other hand, if it's the predicted Fillon-Le Pen top two, arguably huge change is happening either way: it's just a matter of whether people would rather Thatcherite economic reform or anti-immigrant protectionism. Though the presumed answer to that doesn't give me a great deal of comfort either. So this question is coming entirely from a position of ignorance but I'm interested - if Hollande couldn't get through any meaningful economic reform then how much can Fillon realistically hope to get done? Is this a similar case to Obama who was hamstrung by opposing parties vetoing everything he tried? Because I got the impression that the problem with Hollande was the public being like "can we not" to everything he tried.


Harve View member profile	6th December 2016, 03:21 AM Post #35
Cœur poids plume Joined: 3 November 2007 Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718	QUOTE(Umi @ Dec 4 2016, 05:02 AM) So this question is coming entirely from a position of ignorance but I'm interested - if Hollande couldn't get through any meaningful economic reform then how much can Fillon realistically hope to get done? Is this a similar case to Obama who was hamstrung by opposing parties vetoing everything he tried? Because I got the impression that the problem with Hollande was the public being like "can we not" to everything he tried. I think a major difference is that if Fillon is elected, he'll be elected with that mandate which wasn't the case with Hollande. But yah you have a point.


Qassändra View member profile	22nd January 2017, 08:20 PM Post #36
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	First prediction of the year shattered for me! A prediction that Montebourg would be the PS candidate has fallen as he seems to have done an Andy Burnham and been ruthlessly outflanked to the left by Benoît Hamon, who is currently leading the first round of the Socialist primaries (34%) over Manuel Valls (31%) after a campaign based around ideas like the universal basic income and drug legalisation. I can't see any way Hamon doesn't win next week's run-off on those figures - Valls gets very few second preferences as the unreconstructed centrist. All of which is tremendous news for Emmanuel Macron, who is also doing a tremendous job of killing off my predictions on the French election and seems to actually be doing quite well. If Bayrou drops out and Melenchon/the Greens don't, there's a real chance at this stage that Macron could make it to the second round over either Fillon or Le Pen according to polls. Although who knows how much that could be brought short by Hamon? All four major candidates are running on a platform of change and as it stands Macron's looks the most vulnerable to the charge of "erm...is this actually change?". Macron's pitch basically seems to be "keep everything the same but make an app for it".


Cal View member profile	28th January 2017, 10:04 PM Post #37
BuzzJack Platinum Member Joined: 27 April 2008 Posts: 9,962 User: 5,964	The funny thing with Macron though is that he's extremely pro-EU (isn't he a federalist?), and it seems to be going down relatively well. He was even beating Fillon (a two-way poll) before Fillon's... indiscretions were revealed. He also seems to be hugely popular in regions such as Brittany, which usually votes Socialist... which should terrify Hamon seeing as he's from Finistère. I really wouldn't be surprised to see Macron in the run-off with Le Pen. After that, I can't call it. Part of me expects the Socialists to back Macron if he goes to the second round, but I guess you can't presume anything, especially after reading that Le Pen actually has sizeable support in the Muslim-majority suburbs around Paris. The mind boggles. This post has been edited by Cal: 28th January 2017, 10:18 PM


Brett-Butler View member profile	28th January 2017, 10:21 PM Post #38
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455	There was a piece about the French elections on the BBC News Channel during the week. There was footage of one of Macron's rallies (I think it was Macron's, it could have been one of the Socialists, I wasn't paying full attention), and his delivery and pomp seemed incredibly populist-driven, not unlike a Trump rally in atmosphere (although definitely not in message and/or policy).


Qassändra View member profile	28th January 2017, 10:58 PM Post #39
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	QUOTE(Cal @ Jan 28 2017, 10:04 PM) I guess you can't presume anything, especially after reading that Le Pen actually has sizeable support in the Muslim-majority suburbs around Paris. The mind boggles. It's the white people. The same thing happened in the London mayoral election last year - Zac Goldsmith's vote was actually up on Boris's in Muslim-majority ward despite being up against the first Muslim candidate for mayor. It wasn't the Muslims in those areas voting for Zac though - it was the elderly white population in those areas that resented the change. I can't imagine many Socialist voters going to Le Pen over Macron in round 2. Le Pen's support is as high as it is (and the Socialists' as low as it is) because a lot of those working class voters have already long gone over to the National Front. The remaining rump of Socialist voters are the French equivalent of Guardian-reading croissant-munc-oh wait.


Cal View member profile	28th January 2017, 11:32 PM Post #40
BuzzJack Platinum Member Joined: 27 April 2008 Posts: 9,962 User: 5,964	QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 28 2017, 10:21 PM) There was a piece about the French elections on the BBC News Channel during the week. There was footage of one of Macron's rallies (I think it was Macron's, it could have been one of the Socialists, I wasn't paying full attention), and his delivery and pomp seemed incredibly populist-driven, not unlike a Trump rally in atmosphere (although definitely not in message and/or policy). To be fair, Hollande's whole demeanour in 2012 was so anti-pomp that he was called 'Mr. Normal' and he had the charisma of roadkill. To be honest, out of all of them, I think Macron might be the best choice (though I'm open to being educated - Tirren?). The Socialists basically mirror the US Dems in that they need to figure out who they are and what they represent, because at the moment you have two candidates (Hamon and Valls) who are actually VERY different, and in my opinion it's just not going to work because a large proportion of their base will be alienated either way. France has been stagnant since Hollande was elected, and even though it's primarily not the Socialist's fault, they haven't done themselves any favours over the last couple of years, and that was clear in the government shake-ups under Hollande. There's only so much chopping and changing you can do before you realise something must be fundamentally wrong with your party. QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 28 2017, 10:58 PM) It's the white people. The same thing happened in the London mayoral election last year - Zac Goldsmith's vote was actually up on Boris's in Muslim-majority ward despite being up against the first Muslim candidate for mayor. It wasn't the Muslims in those areas voting for Zac though - it was the elderly white population in those areas that resented the change. I can't imagine many Socialist voters going to Le Pen over Macron in round 2. Le Pen's support is as high as it is (and the Socialists' as low as it is) because a lot of those working class voters have already long gone over to the National Front. The remaining rump of Socialist voters are the French equivalent of Guardian-reading croissant-munc-oh wait. While I don't dispute that (it makes perfect sense), I think there was an article on Politico (the EU version) where they interviewed French muslims in one of the suburbs and a certain percentage seem to want to give Le Pen a chance because they've lost all trust in the Left (the logic behind this goes over my head). They don't seem particularly concerned about her views on Muslims or immigration because they know she won't be able to pass a lot of her legislation (that's on the assumption that the NF won't get a lot of seats in the legislatives in June, which I don't think they will).