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Posted by: pippa Oct 7 2019, 08:44 PM

With 2 new releases coming to the market for Kylie, i thought we would have our prediction thread open.
I have included a poll for the new 3cd Greatest Hits and also Golden DVD.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 7 2019, 09:40 PM

Very hard to call, obviously the promo will make a big difference, il think positive and say top 15 for SBIT. DVD is much harder to predict, I'm more excited for this so il say top 5.

Posted by: Jay ☆ Oct 7 2019, 09:48 PM

The 6th December release date for Golden Live is one week before the Christmas chart, so sales in general will be relatively high!

Kiss Me Once Live sold 3,821 copies to be #26 in April 2015.

On Friday 14th December 2018 chart (equivalent to Fri 13th Dec 2019 chart that Golden Live will chart in), #26 required 11,554.

I would like to think Golden Live will outsell Kiss Me Once Live's first week (presumably the exposure of the BBC show, the increase of goodwill towards Kylie, and high Q4 sales should see to that)... but perhaps it'll peak lower? Top 40 would likely require ~6,700. Live releases are somewhat more niche than regular albums, so I don't really see it flying off the shelves to the extent of going Top 5... that would likely require 30,000.

Honestly I find it hard to predict this one. It feels a bit pessimistic but maybe low Top 40? I would love to be proven wrong. This is assuming that the release is actually eligible for the album chart & isn't going into the DVD chart. At the moment I'm guessing album chart though, based on Kiss Me Once.

~

Step Back in Time is out 2 weeks earlier... sales aren't quite as extreme, but still rather high. At this point we don't know what promotion will occur, so I have no idea what to predict for this either lol. Hard to say at the moment how high the demand for the 3CD version will be & how effective the promotion will be. Maybe low Top 20? Which would probably require a good 15,000. If the album can be revived to that extent I would be quite pleased, but again hopefully I'm being pessimistic and it does better than that.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 7 2019, 10:30 PM

If golden enters the album chart I can see top 30 and i assume either way it should outsell kiss me once, like you said there is more goodwill for kylie now than back then. As you said the promotional slots and what they contain will have an impact.

Posted by: SmileyKylie Oct 8 2019, 11:46 AM

The Golden concert will be shown on BBC1 before its release and at a better time than the Kiss Me Once was on ITV crambed into 1 hour.

She will have big TV slots, basically it seems like An Audience With .... probably straight after Strictly Come Dancing one Saturday??

other TV promo possible - G Norton, J Ross, Rupaul Drag Race, X-factor, Royal Variety, BBC Special, Jools Holland? Radio 2... Dubai 7 headliner.

if the Golden live CD has the DVD attached and counts for cd album chart it can do very well, depends on its 'limited edition' meaning etc...

Step Back In Time 3 CD will sell very well. Perfect stocking filler when people thinking what to get for Xmas presents. Depending on what else is released in Q4, should easily go top 20 if not higher and stay around a bit.

Hopefully on another note they will add Kylie Xmas offer to those who purchase Step Back and grab a few sales

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 8 2019, 12:43 PM

Hopefully it's not a one week wonder effect and gas a couple of weeks boost.

Posted by: pippa Oct 8 2019, 01:27 PM

I would be disappointed if the new 3cd version only a 1 week effect as it would indicate its the fanbase only who are buying it.
I hope the 3cd version gets new artwork for the front cover too.

Posted by: Jay ☆ Oct 8 2019, 03:13 PM

Judging by Music Week it might just be the normal cover but green instead. Hopefully it ends up being something different though.

Posted by: pippa Oct 8 2019, 03:34 PM

A different cover makes it that one little step for valuable for fans who have already purchased all editions.
It is better for the different editions to actually look different.

Posted by: slowdown73 Oct 8 2019, 05:18 PM

I can’t see the 3cd set doing much. Maybe T30 but I expect it will be mostly hardcore fans who buy it. It’s a very disappointing package for me!

Golden live will hopefully go T10.

Posted by: pippa Oct 8 2019, 06:00 PM

I think the 3cd package is disappointing to most fans.
There was huge potential for cd3 to be something spectacular but they have gone for one of the most disappointing routes they could take with it.
Kylie and BMG should have considered it is the dedicated fans who will in large buy this, and some have already splashed out large amount of money on multiple versions.
On the other-hand, the Golden package is something very enjoyable for fans.

Posted by: SmileyKylie Oct 8 2019, 06:10 PM

Lots of people will buy the 3 CD. fans will buy it, or get it given as a present for Xmas. they always do to add to their collections. Don't worry!!!!!

Posted by: pippa Oct 8 2019, 06:20 PM

It should sell but may potentially not sell as strongly as it potentially could with a stronger track listing.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 8 2019, 10:42 PM

If nothing else this new edition will get the album certified gold plus pull ahead of kiss me once sales.

Posted by: pippa Oct 9 2019, 01:28 PM

I would greatly welcome the Gold certification.
Heavy promotion will help get the sales lifted, although the 2 cd edition would likely respond positively to the promotion regardless of the new edition.
The new edition will get those who already purchased to buy it again.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 9 2019, 10:09 PM

Ya she would prob get a great boost in sales with the edition out now when she does the promo regardless of the new edition. From fans though they will click up a good few extra sales with the new edition
Anyone know what snow queen sold on its rereleased week?

Posted by: pippa Oct 13 2019, 11:11 AM

I believe Snow Queen sold close to 6k the week it was at Number 41.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 13 2019, 02:10 PM

Surely SBIT can do double that.

Posted by: pippa Oct 14 2019, 01:48 PM

With a strong promotional campaign in the pipeline, i would expect that type of figure.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 14 2019, 11:09 PM

If the promo continues over a few weeks it would be great, like x factor this week, strictly the week after and so on, it would keep the sales steady.

Posted by: pippa Oct 15 2019, 01:54 PM

Prolonged promotion should realistically bring the best results, especially in a quarter when people are that bit more willing to spend money they may not usually spend.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 15 2019, 11:40 PM

Defo and I'm hoping outside promo she will continue to pick up casual sales over Christmas.

Posted by: pippa Oct 16 2019, 01:29 PM

Kylie should easily attract the casual cd purchaser, especially in the supermarkets.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 16 2019, 10:18 PM

Supermarket sales and Christmas should work good for kylie.

Posted by: pippa Oct 17 2019, 01:46 PM

Are people more excited for the Greatest Hits updated release or the Golden Live Tour and Cd.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 17 2019, 10:39 PM

Golden DVD and especially live CD for me out of both releases.

Posted by: pippa Oct 18 2019, 12:10 PM

If the track listing on cd3 is the same as posted here a few weeks ago i would be more excited for Golden.
That said, if cd3 surprises with material i would like on it my choice could change.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 29 2019, 10:47 PM

That track listing is what's listed on Amazon, as it stands I'm far more looking forward to buying the golden package but the greatest hits will prob do more chart wise.

Posted by: pippa Oct 30 2019, 03:13 PM

The Golden release will not appeal to people outside the loyal fanbase, therefore the sales will be limited.
These styles of releases would usually attract good 1st week sales and little thereafter.
The Greatest Hits, like any Greatest Hits, will appeal to both fans and the casual customer.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 31 2019, 12:23 PM

Greatest hits are great long term sellers and get spikes every now and again, live releases are a more short term seller.

Posted by: pippa Oct 31 2019, 01:37 PM

Some of the live dvds do sell over a long period but, the main sales are 1st week and sales on the music dvd chart are extremely low.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Oct 31 2019, 09:12 PM

I could be wrong but I think take that were the last to have a huge huge selling music dvd.

Posted by: pippa Nov 1 2019, 12:12 PM

The Circus by Take That has sold phenomenally well and is one of the biggest selling music dvds of all time.
It sold over 180,000 alone in its first week.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Nov 1 2019, 08:26 PM

I think the circus DVD has sold around 900k which is incredible for a concert DVD but take that were at their peak then.

Posted by: SmileyKylie Nov 2 2019, 11:05 PM

This is going to count in the CD chart with added DVD

Lots of Kylie fans will buy it just for the Blue Velvet tune 😘

The Greatest Hits is priced nicely for a three CD, just depends how many of the 70,000 copies already sold will buy the three CD also.... Hardcore fans should buy it even for the Megamix

I expect both to go top 20 on release weeks

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Nov 2 2019, 11:31 PM

I hope they can both make it top 20, golden live could possibly chart top 15 in the cd chart.

Posted by: SmileyKylie Nov 3 2019, 06:33 AM

Both will be on people's Xmas list

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Nov 3 2019, 04:06 PM

I know I will buy the new 3cd greatest hits at some point but I wint be rushing out to buy it, golden I'm buying asap.

Posted by: pippa Nov 5 2019, 02:41 PM

Both of the releases are on my to buy list but the Golden release is my preference.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Nov 5 2019, 10:59 PM

I'm actually really excited for the golden release.

Posted by: Jay ☆ Nov 29 2019, 08:52 PM

Step Back In Time ended up at #16!

Only four of us actually posted to predict, and none of us gave a specific position:

Feel_The_Fever: Top 15
Jay: Top 20
Smiley Kylie: Top 20
slowdown73: Top 30

25 votes in the poll and 7 voted for Top 20!

It's transpired that sales are hugely down this week compared to the equivalent week last year! Kylie sold 6,640 to be #16. Those sales last year would have only been enough for #29. Last year's #20 album sold 13,618 (which is why I thought she'd need to sell 15,000 in order to be comfortably Top 20), but only 5,983 was needed this week.


Any more predictions for Golden Live?

Back in early October I only predicted low Top 40 for it. Last year's chart needed over 8,000 sales to be #35. Kiss Me Once Live only sold 3,821 copies in its first week of release, and I felt that Golden being able to more than double those sales would be good going, but result in a low peak. It seems this year's sales levels are going to be a lot worse than last year though, hmm. I'll revise my prediction to somewhere in the Top 20, but I'll keep my fingers crossed for Top 10!

Posted by: SmileyKylie Nov 29 2019, 10:32 PM

Think it depends what promo she is going to do?

Strictly next weekend? (unlikely) The One Show? Lorraine Defo I reckon even if just a mention

Again it's not sodl hardly anything pre order on amazon but she has sold out of the deluxe on her website but how many ddi they make?

I would hope she gets similar 7-8k maybe more if its Xmas run up

Posted by: Medellíam Nov 29 2019, 10:41 PM

Pretty sure all the Strictly placements have been announced.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Nov 30 2019, 02:21 AM

If golden does aswell as sbit this week it would be great.

Posted by: SmileyKylie Dec 1 2019, 10:37 PM

Just looking at the new releases this week and next week I think Kylie will do well to go top 20 with Golden Live.

Looks like she has no promo lined up until her Xmas show etc so i think she will struggle against some big sellers releasing and some that have already released and will consistently sell well.

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Dec 1 2019, 10:45 PM

Surely it will match the same sales at the least as sbit did this week?

Posted by: SmileyKylie Dec 1 2019, 10:58 PM

Yeah maybe but who knows? It's a live Golden CD does anyone know or care about it outside her fan base? Surely casuals would go for Step Back more......

And only two versions,the deluxe sold out. I guess kylie fans will probably download on itunes too, but how many streaming points will it get? Probably not many....

Plus lots of artists Robbie, Rod, Codplay, Capaldi, Balletc etc she isn't going to go ahead of any of them etc, then the new releases from this week and the ones from next week with her......

Amazon she hasn't got higher than 44 on best sellers in its four weeks of pre orders. Hopefully people bought from her website but doubt it will be that many? Let's see.....

Posted by: Feel_The_Fever Dec 2 2019, 03:24 AM

It's a fan only release, these style of releases rarely get casual sales. I do think it should get similar sales to sbit did this week as I'd say that was largely bought by the fans whom many already have the cd. I didn't buy the new 3cd edition (yet) but have golden live on pre order as I'm far more excited for it.

Posted by: SmileyKylie Dec 2 2019, 07:29 PM

So we have

Golden Live Deluxe (sold out) maybe 1k UK sales?
Golden Live Standard maybe 500 pre ordered?
Itunes Golden Live
Spotify Golden Live

Do we think pre-orders around 1.5k? So hard to tell with her store selling most

I think to get top 20 next week will probably need close to 10k? Can't see her doing that..... But it is Xmas and the DVD maybe a bonus to this release especially to those who went to the concert, even casual fans

Posted by: pippa Dec 2 2019, 08:13 PM

This release as we have mentioned is hard to predict as it is targeted at the Fans.