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Danny
post Jul 13 2016, 10:19 AM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jul 13 2016, 11:09 AM) *
Danny - what are your thoughts on Owen Smith?


I know very little about him. Watching some videos this morning, although he's not exactly overburdened with charisma, he does atleast seem an OK speaker I suppose (unlike Angela Eagle, who I genuinely think is more of a presentational disaster than Corbyn). Maybe there's a few shreds which say he could do OK in a general election, if you squint hard.

But I'd need to see a lot more from him to be reassured that, even if he compromised on some things, he would still have some basic red lines (such as protecting the poorest from welfare cuts) which he would always fight for, no matter how much the Tories try to bully him out of it.


This post has been edited by Danny: Jul 13 2016, 10:22 AM
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Qassändra
post Jul 13 2016, 10:37 AM
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He's said Labour 'should make the progressive case against freedom of movement' and there were early whispers that he might have been the left candidate last year. I have a feeling the statement will disqualify him with the membership, but it seemed a little more up your street than it would be for most members.
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Danny
post Jul 13 2016, 01:10 PM
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Admittedly it might be completely different in London (where, who knows, the majority of Labour membership might well be concentrated these days), but you'd be surprised how many takers a "reduce immigration" ticket would get from my CLP. There's even a few old guys there who, in a debate on Syria last year, made some comments about Muslims that would've made Farage blush.
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Popchartfreak
post Jul 13 2016, 01:37 PM
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Sorry, history is repeating, the same activists who destroyed Labour's credibility in the 80's are manipulating the new generation of idealist johnny-come-latelys. That in his short term as leader the only time Corbyn has been fired up about anything is when his own job was on the line speaks volumes.

Exactly who does he think he is appealing to in the broader electorate? For example, I support the council house mass building programme, but will people generally? Those on waiting lists will, and those who want cheap housing to get on the housing ladder. Those who want expensive houses that hold their value won't - that's every property-owner in the country, every investment bank, and the rich press press that depend on them to survive, tax payers who will have to fork out to build the houses....

It don't come for free. People see him as lacklustre, stubborn, dodgy foreign-affairs credentials, he is just such an obvious loser who will take Labour out leading to a massive Tory majority, who will then have carte blanche to decimate every Labour achievement. The reason the PLP are doing this isn't out of spite or being anti-lefties in principle, it's because they see the bigger picture - something Labour leadership has had a problem with for many years and why it's in a mess now. Corbyn is of the "at any cost" generation. He knew the make-up of the party he has stuck with and been a thorn in the side of, including it's democratically leaders who he now wants to see tried as war criminals. Other MP's are perfectly entitled to stick with their principles and be a thorn in HIS side.

To fail to see that is to be a massive hypocrite.
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Suedehead2
post Jul 13 2016, 02:13 PM
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QUOTE(popchartfreak @ Jul 13 2016, 02:37 PM) *
Sorry, history is repeating, the same activists who destroyed Labour's credibility in the 80's are manipulating the new generation of idealist johnny-come-latelys. That in his short term as leader the only time Corbyn has been fired up about anything is when his own job was on the line speaks volumes.

Exactly who does he think he is appealing to in the broader electorate? For example, I support the council house mass building programme, but will people generally? Those on waiting lists will, and those who want cheap housing to get on the housing ladder. Those who want expensive houses that hold their value won't - that's every property-owner in the country, every investment bank, and the rich press press that depend on them to survive, tax payers who will have to fork out to build the houses....

It don't come for free. People see him as lacklustre, stubborn, dodgy foreign-affairs credentials, he is just such an obvious loser who will take Labour out leading to a massive Tory majority, who will then have carte blanche to decimate every Labour achievement. The reason the PLP are doing this isn't out of spite or being anti-lefties in principle, it's because they see the bigger picture - something Labour leadership has had a problem with for many years and why it's in a mess now. Corbyn is of the "at any cost" generation. He knew the make-up of the party he has stuck with and been a thorn in the side of, including it's democratically leaders who he now wants to see tried as war criminals. Other MP's are perfectly entitled to stick with their principles and be a thorn in HIS side.

To fail to see that is to be a massive hypocrite.

If we had a Like button, I would have just used it. The parallels with the 80s - particularly the attitude that it is better to be ideologically pure than to make the compromises necessary to win an election - are all too clear.
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Danny
post Jul 13 2016, 02:15 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jul 13 2016, 03:13 PM) *
If we had a Like button, I would have just used it. The parallels with the 80s - particularly the attitude that it is better to be ideologically pure than to make the compromises necessary to win an election - are all too clear.


Wasn't this exactly the attitude you were advocating Labour should take on the EU?
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Soy Adrián
post Jul 13 2016, 03:03 PM
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Owen Smith could be great. My Corbynite friend said last autumn that he was probably the shadow minister closest to me in views, which was meant to be vaguely complementary. If nothing else, we could swap John Oliver in for him for PMQs and aside from the accent no one would notice.
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Qassändra
post Jul 13 2016, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jul 13 2016, 03:15 PM) *
Wasn't this exactly the attitude you were advocating Labour should take on the EU?

Again, a one-off referendum (especially on such a seismic issue) is a slightly different circumstance for policy than the run up to a general election.
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Doctor Sleep
post Jul 13 2016, 03:11 PM
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Jul 13 2016, 04:03 PM) *
If nothing else, we could swap John Oliver in for him for PMQs and aside from the accent no one would notice.


Or Ben Elton.
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Suedehead2
post Jul 13 2016, 03:26 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jul 13 2016, 03:15 PM) *
Wasn't this exactly the attitude you were advocating Labour should take on the EU?

No. On the EU, I was saying that it would be ridiculous for the overwhelming majority of MPs and the membership to undertake a complete U-turn. In the 1980s, the Labour left were the ones calling for wholesale changes in long-standing policy.
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Danny
post Jul 14 2016, 02:35 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jul 13 2016, 04:09 PM) *
Again, a one-off referendum (especially on such a seismic issue) is a slightly different circumstance for policy than the run up to a general election.


Sorry, but again, yours and Suedehead's whole arguments are based on your own "idelogically-pure" beliefs.

From my (ideological) perspective, a family not being able to afford food and electricity after having their welfare cut is much more "seismic" than whether British politicians get to attend Brussels summits anymore.
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Qassändra
post Jul 14 2016, 03:23 PM
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Yes, the knock-on effects of leaving the EU are solely limited to politicians going to Brussels summits.
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Danny
post Jul 14 2016, 03:55 PM
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OK then, some very wealthy people also might lose jobs with multinationals when they "go overseas", and have to suffer the horror of downgrading to a pleb job which only pays them a shockingly small salary of £50,000 a year or something. And some smug middle-class students might have to suffer the indignity of not being able to go backpacking across Europe as easily.

I still think the safety net for the very poorest is much more important.


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Soy Adrián
post Jul 14 2016, 03:58 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jul 14 2016, 04:55 PM) *
OK then, some very wealthy people also might lose jobs with multinationals when they "go overseas", and have to suffer the horror of downgrading to a pleb job which only pays them a shockingly small salary of £50,000 a year or something.

I still think the safety net for the very poorest is much more important.

Job losses from us leaving will affect every sector and every pay grade. You're clueless.
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Danny
post Jul 14 2016, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Jul 14 2016, 04:58 PM) *
Job losses from us leaving will affect every sector and every pay grade. You're clueless.


For a lot of people, there are no decent jobs to lose in the first place.
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Qassändra
post Jul 14 2016, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jul 14 2016, 04:55 PM) *
OK then, some very wealthy people also might lose jobs with multinationals when they "go overseas", and have to suffer the horror of downgrading to a pleb job which only pays them a shockingly small salary of £50,000 a year or something. And some smug middle-class students might have to suffer the indignity of not being able to go backpacking across Europe as easily.

I still think the safety net for the very poorest is much more important.

When food futures roll over, the poorest will be facing a 20 percent hike in the cost of their weekly shop because of the collapse in the pound. If interest rates have to go up if we stay in stagflation, people who suffer a rent hike when their landlord has to pay extra to cover their mortgage each month will be the ones hit the worst. And of course, if companies decide to relocate to an EU country when it no longer makes economic sense for them to be based in a country where they can't trade by right with the rest of the EU anymore, plenty of secretaries, cleaners, and people employed by businesses that they buy things from will be out of a job.

The effects of leaving the EU are absolutely not limited to a few middle class people losing perks. It is also, unlike general election rhetoric, a permanent decision which will translate into direct policy and cannot be shifted during the course of a government. It is only ideological to describe it as more seismic in the sense that 'more people will be hurt and it is not reversible' is an ideological basis on which to judge one policy as worse than another.
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Danny
post Jul 14 2016, 06:37 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jul 14 2016, 05:17 PM) *
When food futures roll over, the poorest will be facing a 20 percent hike in the cost of their weekly shop because of the collapse in the pound. If interest rates have to go up if we stay in stagflation, people who suffer a rent hike when their landlord has to pay extra to cover their mortgage each month will be the ones hit the worst. And of course, if companies decide to relocate to an EU country when it no longer makes economic sense for them to be based in a country where they can't trade by right with the rest of the EU anymore, plenty of secretaries, cleaners, and people employed by businesses that they buy things from will be out of a job.

The effects of leaving the EU are absolutely not limited to a few middle class people losing perks. It is also, unlike general election rhetoric, a permanent decision which will translate into direct policy and cannot be shifted during the course of a government. It is only ideological to describe it as more seismic in the sense that 'more people will be hurt and it is not reversible' is an ideological basis on which to judge one policy as worse than another.


The stuff in the first paragraph is mostly just your own subjective opinions about what Brexit will mean, based on your ideology. Though for what its worth, from my perspective, welfare cuts and inequality in general is still the policy where more people get hurt and is not reversible -- to state the obvious, even if welfare cuts are eventually reversed years down the line by a different government, that won't erase the years of misery while those cuts were in place, nor does it account for the possibility that the person might have permanent health problems caused by those years of misery, which still affect them even if their material circumstances eventually improve.

Similarly, people who think unilateral disarmament is the biggest issue (not me) also probably think that renewing Trident is a "seismic and irreversible" decision -- just as you see Brexit as inevitably meaning stagflation and economic depression and all the rest of it, they see Trident renewal as inevitably leading to another arms race which will eventually spin out of control and result in destructive world wars.

The point is, you're more than entitled to your own ideological beliefs, but the 'moderates' really need to drop the whole moralising about how they think "the hard left are just about making themselves feel good, instead of wanting to win elections" -- the socalled 'moderates' have their own ideology on which they're not willing to compromise just as much as anyone else.


This post has been edited by Danny: Jul 14 2016, 06:40 PM
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Popchartfreak
post Jul 14 2016, 06:39 PM
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well said all. The poor, as they always are, will be hit the hardest by Brexit. The rich always do well, no matter what. The irony is, the poor voted for it themselves this time (on the whole), and have no-one else left to blame other than the people who have created the problems in the first place: The Rich, The Powerful. Any hand the EU had in poor people's misfortune is relatively minor (if any), and they actually supported hard hit areas more than the caring sharing Tory party will, or have done.

Oh yes, immigrants will also still keep coming because there aren't enough skilled and educated people in the UK, and those that there are will bugger off to better-paid jobs elsewhere. So unless someone stacking shelves in Tesco with no GCSE's gets a move on and grabs some serious medical qualifications or learn how to service cars, they will continue to stack shelves for the forseeable future, and they can't expect to get paid huge wages without either the cost of stuff sold going up, or the company going bust as everyone votes with their feet and chooses LIDL cos it's cheaper. Same reason everyone shops on tax-dodging empire Amazon, when they could shop in rate-paying High Street shops who are slightly more expensive, but who help the economy.

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Qassändra
post Jul 14 2016, 07:25 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jul 14 2016, 07:37 PM) *
The stuff in the first paragraph is mostly just your own subjective opinions about what Brexit will mean, based on your ideology. Though for what its worth, from my perspective, welfare cuts and inequality in general is still the policy where more people get hurt and is not reversible -- to state the obvious, even if welfare cuts are eventually reversed years down the line by a different government, that won't erase the years of misery while those cuts were in place, nor does it account for the possibility that the person might have permanent health problems caused by those years of misery, which still affect them even if their material circumstances eventually improve.

Similarly, people who think unilateral disarmament is the biggest issue (not me) also probably think that renewing Trident is a "seismic and irreversible" decision -- just as you see Brexit as inevitably meaning stagflation and economic depression and all the rest of it, they see Trident renewal as inevitably leading to another arms race which will eventually spin out of control and result in destructive world wars.

The point is, you're more than entitled to your own ideological beliefs, but the 'moderates' really need to drop the whole moralising about how they think "the hard left are just about making themselves feel good, instead of wanting to win elections" -- the socalled 'moderates' have their own ideology on which they're not willing to compromise just as much as anyone else.

A fall in the value of the pound causing an increase in the cost of imports is not a subjective opinion. It is mathematics. And it de facto hurts more people - literally everyone buys things that are imported. It is irreversible and, failing the kinds of policies that you aren't particularly amenable to being enforced in order to encourage people abroad to want to buy the pound, permanent. Except those policies would be to get us back to where we were *before* Brexit, not to add any gain on where we were to begin with.

They can say that all they like. There is scarce evidence that Trident renewal will lead to another arms race (after all, we've had it for 60 years without it doing so). There is plenty of evidence or already existing proof that the first paragraph of my post will lead to its consequences. I am not willing to compromise on something that was both a. eminently winnable and b. had firm and solid evidence for its permanence in making pretty much everyone but the most well-off worse off for the next ten years, no.
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post Jul 14 2016, 07:40 PM
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Corbyn is a man of the people, and changing the rules like the DNC to win, when they know HE is who WE want, then this is a disgrace and a mockery of democracy.
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