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 The lovely discussion of all things EU and/or Brexit, Part V |
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 17th July 2019, 11:55 AM
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#1341
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 Buzzjack's Finest Alcoholic.
Joined: 19 November 2011
Posts: 10,365 User: 15,367 
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QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Jul 17 2019, 12:14 AM)  In fact civil service leave has been cancelled in the run up to October 31st so as to ensure all is well. That’s news to my partner... as far as he’s aware his holidays haven’t been cancelled? |
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17th July 2019, 12:20 PM
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#1342
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 Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
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QUOTE(Oliver @ Jul 17 2019, 12:55 PM) That’s news to my partner... as far as he’s aware his holidays haven’t been cancelled? His information is dodgy as usual: it's only Jeremy Hunt threatening it, and he won't be PM. He's wrong in a more general sense too. You can't just say "oh, we've splurged £30 billion on X, Y and Z so it'll all be fine." No matter how much money, manpower and time you throw at it to deal with the immediate shock, there's only so much preparation that can be done to mitigate the economic effects of being on the periphery of the world's largest and most well-integrated trading block. It's more than just the short/medium-term effects transport chaos in Kent, a crash in certain export-focussed manufacturing and agriculture sectors and a shortage in certain perishable goods and medicines: no country has ever lurched backwards with regards to trading relations with its largest partner like this. That will harm every part of the country in the long run and you can't really prepare for that new norm, which is why No Deal will simply be a costly, temporary position of ultimate weakness before folding and accepting everything that Brexiteers hate in the withdrawal agreement: the backstop, the €39 billion, citizens' rights. But it could save the Tory party, so they're mostly happy to do it. The former acute effects might not be felt by a large section of the population, whereas the latter effects will be spread out in terms of timescale. Most Leave voters and almost all of the ~33% who actively support No Deal based their decisions on cultural issues, and economic consequences are unlikely to change their mind, especially since a large proportion of them are comfortably retired and well shielded from inflation, unemployment, real wage decreases. This post has been edited by Harve: 17th July 2019, 12:24 PM |
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17th July 2019, 12:35 PM
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#1343
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
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On that point, an article on no deal by Anand Menon, who I believe has actually spoken out in favour of the withdrawal bill, rather than anything that might delay or reverse Brexit:
QUOTE Bored of Brexit yet? Everyone is, it seems (though not me, obviously). And yet the process drags on. Little wonder that the idea of a so-called clean Brexit seems ever more appealing to ever more people. Simply walking away without all the banging on about withdrawal issues, backstops and the like and sorting the details out later sounds wonderful, doesn’t it? But it won’t be. And, more importantly, it won’t clear the decks to allow us to address the issues 2016′s referendum taught us are in dire need of being heard. Quite the contrary. Simply put, it’s hard to imagine anything less clean than a clean Brexit. There are good reasons for people wanting to put at least this first phase of the Brexit process behind us. One is that, for a number of people, the point of leaving the European Union was not simply the need to create a new relationship with Brussels. Voting leave in the referendum of 2016 was in some cases a vote of discontent with the way politics and the economy work within the UK. But Brexit has sucked the air out of our politics, distracting politicians and civil servants alike, and preventing them from focussing on the kinds of issues voters want to see addressed. So why is just getting out not the answer? Well, for two reasons. And these relate to process and outcome. Britain might leave without a deal, but at some point, negotiations with the EU would have to restart. We’d still need to have a relationship with our nearest and largest trading partner. And not just on trade. Indeed, perhaps the most worrying aspect would be the way in which the myriad channels of cooperation on security and policing would fall away. And this relationship would have to be negotiated. The problem is that the EU has repeatedly stated that it would only negotiate these things once the so-called withdrawal issues (citizens’ rights, the Brexit bill and the Northern Irish border) were dealt with. And, here’s the rub. Dealing with these will be far harder once we’ve left. Because then Article 50 will no longer apply. And for all the failings of that damned treaty article, the one thing it does do is make life easy when it comes to agreeing a deal. This can be done by national leaders, in private, in Brussels, by majority. Once we’ve left, that process changes dramatically. We switch to a so-called nine negotiation. Which means member state governments and indeed their parliaments will get a say. And each of them will have a veto. Which will be difficult and, as importantly, potentially very, very slow. And while all this is going on, the Prime Minister will not be swanning around fixing those issues voters care about. He will be firefighting the various emergencies that no-deal will generate – whether that be queues, or shortages, or the fact criminals from the EU will be able to arrive here in numbers because we no longer have access to the databases that list them. More delay, in other words. And more delay with far greater uncertainty and far less disposable cash. Yes, the Government can borrow to fund investment, and governments since 2010 should have done far more of that. But no-deal will hit our economy, and so reduce whatever fiscal headroom there is to be exploited. And so whatever the superficial, intuitive attraction, no-deal will not make it easier to focus on other things. On the contrary, it will make it harder. It's a good article because listing consequences of no deal washes off on committed Brexiteers. This just clearly explains what kind of position Britain will find itself in, politically. It's not an end state. |
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17th July 2019, 01:26 PM
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#1344
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,840 User: 17,376
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ye, I keep trying and failing to explain to Brexiter friends that no-deal will solve nothing, it just means the UK starts from scratch the world over at trying to get trade deals and other sorts of agreements sorted and we'll be royally stuffed while that goes on for a decade or two. We don't have the upper hand in deals, we don't have the staff, we don't have the skills - I mean just look at the quality of the lying Tory numpties that have messed it all up so far! Not a clue. All they do is slag off the people who DO have the skills and fail to employ any more, just shuffle them about a bit.
facts mean nothing to people who voted Brexit because it means they will look stupid if they back down and admit they were hopelessly wrong, so they throw it into the air and cross their fingers, blather on about British Spirit and the War and the Blitz (none of which they were alive for) and try and pretend they are the true patriots. Breaking up the UK is not patriotic, nor is shafting poor people to try and gain power for self. So we have to wait and see if we get a no-deal Brexit and all we can do afterwards is make sure that each and every one of them takes personal responsibility for any subsequent problems. They don't get off the hook, they don't blame politicians, the EU, other countries, immigrants. There will be only one blamee - those who disregarded reason and went for emotion. I ever hear any of my friends and family moan about life following Brexit being difficult in terms of NHS, travel, money, income, tax, death rates, education, they'll get a very quick "don't look at me, I didn't vote Brexit" and cut off the moaning just like they try and shut me up for having an opposing opinion based on facts and logic not magic beans. I Told You So is a dish best served with a cheerful smile 
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23rd July 2019, 03:23 PM
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#1345
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
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So now Boris. Actions speak louder than words so let's see you get down to business and get us out once and for all by October 31st, deal if possible otherwise with no deal and we'll be just fine. The British spirit will prevail.
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23rd July 2019, 03:51 PM
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#1346
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
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QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Jul 23 2019, 04:23 PM) So now Boris. Actions speak louder than words so let's see you get down to business and get us out once and for all by October 31st, deal if possible otherwise with no deal and we'll be just fine. The British spirit will prevail. Ah yes, those British spirits we won't be able to export any more because of the hefty tariffs that will be imposed on them if we leave without a deal. |
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23rd July 2019, 08:17 PM
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#1347
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Jul 23 2019, 04:23 PM) So now Boris. Actions speak louder than words so let's see you get down to business and get us out once and for all by October 31st, deal if possible otherwise with no deal and we'll be just fine. The British spirit will prevail.  'visibly shaken' |
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23rd July 2019, 08:20 PM
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#1348
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jul 23 2019, 04:51 PM) Ah yes, those British spirits we won't be able to export any more because of the hefty tariffs that will be imposed on them if we leave without a deal. Well we'll have to drink them ourselves then. I hear Boris himself isn't adverse to a wee dram or glass of red wine! 
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23rd July 2019, 08:20 PM
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#1349
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
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I’m decamping to my parents in the event of no deal. 90% of the UKs freshwater is in Scotland, more chance there of still having something
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23rd July 2019, 08:29 PM
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 WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
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Still don't see a way No Deal happens personally, at least not without a General Election first.
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23rd July 2019, 08:38 PM
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#1351
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Jul 23 2019, 09:29 PM) Still don't see a way No Deal happens personally, at least not without a General Election first. Exactly, and Boris will not risk a General Election until Brexit is delivered. Ultimately he is the man most likely to win over the support of the remaining hardliner ERG MPs. Don't forget we got the glorious sight of Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Raab ALL going back on their principles and voting FOR the WA on 29th March. So it looks like when it comes down to it they will be happy to get behind it if it means Brexit will happen. |
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24th July 2019, 01:46 AM
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#1352
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jul 23 2019, 09:38 PM) Exactly, and Boris will not risk a General Election until Brexit is delivered. Ultimately he is the man most likely to win over the support of the remaining hardliner ERG MPs. Don't forget we got the glorious sight of Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Raab ALL going back on their principles and voting FOR the WA on 29th March. So it looks like when it comes down to it they will be happy to get behind it if it means Brexit will happen. Won't that be hard to do though as the conservative majority is practically non-existent? The DUP aren't going to support the agreement with the backstop still in place. Boris will need to persuade 34 more people to vote for it compared to the last vote, which is exactly the amount of conservatives that voted against it last time. That's assuming the labour defectors vote the same again. I feel there's more chance of an accidental no deal by the EU being fed up and not agreeing to an extension again come October. We really need a general election and second referendum at this point. Both of those things should hopefully make things somewhat clearer or at least make sure the conservatives aren't trying to bulldose their way through with brexit. The next GE would most likely lead to a Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green coalition of some sorts given Labour's policy of backing remain in a second referendum. |
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24th July 2019, 01:16 PM
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#1353
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,840 User: 17,376
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QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Jul 23 2019, 04:23 PM) So now Boris. Actions speak louder than words so let's see you get down to business and get us out once and for all by October 31st, deal if possible otherwise with no deal and we'll be just fine. The British spirit will prevail. The British spirit prevailing while people are dying from lack of care and NHS drugs is hardly the point. Not everyone survives. Those that do and have no family or friends affected can frollick around gaily singing "see how the British spirit is proudly bragging to the rest of the world" as jobs disappear, families struggle and people die - just to prove a point about the non-thing that never went away in the first place. |
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24th July 2019, 01:28 PM
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#1354
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
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QUOTE(Envoirment @ Jul 24 2019, 02:46 AM) Won't that be hard to do though as the conservative majority is practically non-existent? The DUP aren't going to support the agreement with the backstop still in place. Boris will need to persuade 34 more people to vote for it compared to the last vote, which is exactly the amount of conservatives that voted against it last time. That's assuming the labour defectors vote the same again. I feel there's more chance of an accidental no deal by the EU being fed up and not agreeing to an extension again come October. We really need a general election and second referendum at this point. Both of those things should hopefully make things somewhat clearer or at least make sure the conservatives aren't trying to bulldose their way through with brexit. The next GE would most likely lead to a Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green coalition of some sorts given Labour's policy of backing remain in a second referendum. I also feel it will come about with the EU getting fed up, if it happens. Parliament still doesn't know what it wants, just what it doesn't want. Boris wants power. If there's a GE he may lose power. If he tinkers with the withdrawal agreement and tries to sell it to the ERG for backing, they'll still not be happy and neither will the DUP. Ireland holds the cards - they can control what happens re WA changes. Johnson's first move should be try them and see what their attitude is. I suspect you're right about a likely GE result..... |
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24th July 2019, 04:36 PM
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#1355
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Envoirment @ Jul 24 2019, 02:46 AM) the next GE would most likely lead to a Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green coalition of some sorts given Labour's policy of backing remain in a second referendum. I honestly think it would be a Tory majority now they have a more enigmatic leader who will get on the campaign trail and on his soapbox. Maybe not three figures but a comfortable majority for Boris to confirm him as PM. This post has been edited by Trump2020: 24th July 2019, 04:37 PM |
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24th July 2019, 04:52 PM
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#1356
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Radical Pink Troll
Joined: 11 March 2006
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How is Boris enigmatic?
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24th July 2019, 08:08 PM
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#1357
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,840 User: 17,376
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QUOTE(T Boy @ Jul 24 2019, 05:52 PM) How is Boris enigmatic? well his popularity is enigmatic. I can only assume he has somehow placed a mind-controlling substance in water supplies that affects the ability to reason rationally
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24th July 2019, 08:22 PM
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#1358
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,603 User: 88
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QUOTE(Trump2020 @ Jul 24 2019, 05:36 PM) I honestly think it would be a Tory majority now they have a more enigmatic leader who will get on the campaign trail and on his soapbox. Maybe not three figures but a comfortable majority for Boris to confirm him as PM. They have absolutely no chance of a majority with Boris. |
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24th July 2019, 09:00 PM
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#1359
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
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QUOTE(Envoirment @ Jul 24 2019, 02:46 AM) The next GE would most likely lead to a Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green coalition of some sorts given Labour's policy of backing remain in a second referendum. Isn't the labour policy vote remain if the tories put it to a ref but if it goes to a GE then its a labour renegotiation with confirmatory ref that labour will support a tbc option? |
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24th July 2019, 09:17 PM
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#1360
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,675 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Jul 24 2019, 10:00 PM) Isn't the labour policy vote remain if the tories put it to a ref but if it goes to a GE then its a labour renegotiation with confirmatory ref that labour will support a tbc option? Yes. In other words, they are still not a Remain-supporting party and won’t be standing on a pro-Remain manifesto if there is an election while we are still in the EU. |
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