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 Eurovision Song Contest 2016 · Odds, Top 5 | Russia · Australia · Ukraine · France · Sweden |
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  20th January 2016, 05:50 PM
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#1
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608 
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 Of course, it's very very very early to start looking at odds but Betfred has opened their Eurovision betting for 2016 which means we can start to see hype trains form and fade as the national selections come and go. As always, at such an early stage, just a couple of people making bets can cause big shifts in the market and the odds are based on that little bit of money in the market rather than expert opinions, but still let's have a look! Russia currently lead the way with Sergey at just 7/2, with Sweden predictably at 7/1 and then Malta, Germany and Norway at 8/1. I'm guessing Malta must be an example of one of those big shifts as I don't see anything in their national final that would be in contention for a Eurovision win. Germany don't usually start this high either, maybe the little bit of hype around Gregorian and Avantasia is giving them attention. The rest of the countries at the top are the predictable ones who commonly have good entries and big national selections like Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Ukraine and Australia. Full list here: Eurovision @ Oddschecker |
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20th January 2016, 06:01 PM
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#2
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
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As always I'll copy these over from the 2015 thread so I don't forget about them. They are the odds for the top 10/15 from around a month before each contest according to previous topics in the forum which always provide very interesting reading.
2015 QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 25 2015, 06:38 PM)  01. 006/4 |  Sweden · Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes 1st02. 007/2 |  Italy · Il Volo - Grande Amore 3rd03. 005/1 |  Australia · Guy Sebastian - Tonight Again 5th04. 010/1 |  Estonia · Elina Born & Stig Rästa - Goodbye To Yesterday 7th05. 025/1 |  Finland · Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina Mun Pitää 16th (SF)06. 025/1 |  Russia · Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices 2nd07. 025/1 |  Norway · Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me 8th08. 025/1 |  Slovenia · Maraaya - Here For You 14th09. 033/1 |  Azerbaijan · Elnur Huseynov - Hour Of The Wolf 12th10. 050/1 |  Iceland · Maria Olafs - Unbroken 15th (SF)11. 050/1 |  United Kingdom · Electro Velvet - Still In Love With You 24th12. 050/1 |  Belgium · Loïc Nottet - Rhythm Inside 4th13. 066/1 |  Spain · Edurne - Amanecer 21st14. 066/1 |  Albania · Elhaida Dani - I'm Alive 17th15. 080/1 |  Armenia · Genealogy - Face The Shadow 16th(Oddschecker) 2014 QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 7 2014, 05:03 PM) 01. 6/4 Armenia (Aram MP3 - Not Alone) 4th02. 11/2 Sweden (Sanna Nielsen - Undo) 3rd03. 12/1  Denmark (Basim - Cliché Love Song) 9th04. 12/1 Norway (Carl Espen - Silent Storm) 8th05. 18/1  Hungary (András Kállay-Saunders - Running) 5th06. 20/1 United Kingdom (Molly - Children Of The Universe) 17th07. 20/1  Ukraine (Mariya Yaremchuk - Tick-Tock) 6th08. 20/1 Azerbaijan (Dilara Kazimova - Start A Fire) 22nd09. 25/1 Belgium (Axel Hirsoux - Mother) 14th (SF)10. 25/1  Romania (Paula Seling & OVI - Miracle) 12th11. 40/1 Russia (Tolmachevy Sisters - Shine) 7th12. 66/1 Italy (Emma Marrone - La Mia Città) 21st13. 66/1  Greece (Freaky Fortune feat. Risky Kidd - Rise Up) 20th14. 66/1  Israel (Mei Finegold - Same Heart) 14th (SF)15. 66/1  Ireland (Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith - Heartbeat) 12th (SF)(Oddschecker) 2013 QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 18 2013, 06:06 PM) 01. 6/4 Denmark (Emmelie de Forest - Only Teardrops) 1st02. 8/1 Norway (Margaret Berger - I Feed You My Love) 4th03. 12/1 Ukraine (Zlata Ognevich - Gravity) 3rd04. 16/1 Russia (Dina Garipova - What If) 5th05. 16/1 Sweden (Robin Stjernberg - You) 14th06. 19/1  The Netherlands (Anouk - Birds) 9th07. 25/1  Germany (Cascada - Glorious) 21st08. 25/1  Georgia (Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani - Waterfall) 15th09. 25/1 Italy (Marco Mengoni - L'Essenziale) 7th10. 33/1 Azerbaijan (Farid Mammadov - Hold Me) 2nd11. 40/1  San Marino (Valentina Monetta - Crisalide (Vola)) 11th (SF)12. 50/1 United Kingdom (Bonnie Tyler - Believe In Me) 19th13. 66/1 Ireland (Ryan Dolan - Only Love Survives) 26th14. 66/1  Belarus (Alyona Lanskaya - Solayoh) 16th15. 75/1 Greece (Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis - Alcohol Is Free) 6th(Oddschecker) 2012 QUOTE(David @ Apr 25 2012, 11:52 AM) 01. 9/4 Sweden (Loreen - Euphoria) 1st02. 8/1 Italy (Nina Zilli - L'amore è femmina (Out Of Love)) 9th03. 10/1 Russia (Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody) 2nd04. 11/1  Serbia (Željko Joksimović - Nije Ljubav Stvar) 3rd05. 14/1 Denmark (Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better) 23rd06. 14/1 United Kingdom (Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free) 25th07. 16/1 Ireland (Jedward - Waterline) 19th08. 18/1 Spain (Pastora Soler - Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me)) 10th09. 20/1 Germany (Roman Lob - Standing Still) 8th10. 20/1 Norway (Tooji - Stay) 26th11. 22/1 Iceland (Gréta Salóme and Jónsi - Never Forget) 20th12. 25/1 Greece (Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac) 17th13. 28/1 Romania (Mandinga - Zaleilah) 12th14. 28/1  Turkey (Can Bonomo - Love Me Back) 7th15. 33/1  Cyprus (Ivi Adamou - La La Love) 16th(Sky Bet) 2011 QUOTE(Pop B!tch @ Apr 24 2011, 08:45 PM) 01. 4/1
 France (Amaury Vassili - Sognu) 15th02. 13/2 Estonia (Getter Jaani - Rockefeller Street) 24th03. 7/1 United Kingdom (Blue - I Can) 11th04. 8/1 Hungary (Kati Wolf - What About My Dreams?) 22nd05. 10/1 Sweden (Eric Saade - Popular) 3rd06. 10/1  Bosnia & Herzegovina (Dino Merlin - Love In Rewind) 6th07. 12/1 Azerbaijan (Ell & Nikki - Running Scared) 1st08. 12/1 Norway (Stella Mwangi - Haba Haba) 17th (SF)09. 12/1 Germany (Lena - Taken By A Stranger) 10th10. 20/1 Russia (Alexej Vorobjov - Get You) 16th11. 20/1 Ireland (Jedward - Lipstick) 8th12. 20/1 Denmark (A Friend In London - New Tomorrow) 5th13. 33/1 Italy (Raphael Gualazzi - Madness Of Love) 2nd14. 40/1 Romania (Hotel FM - Change) 17th15. 40/1  Poland (Magdalena Tul - Jestem) 19th (SF)(Paddy Power) |
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20th January 2016, 06:02 PM
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#3
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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2010
QUOTE(gooddelta @ May 6 2010, 11:36 AM) 01. 5/2 Germany (Lena - Satellite) 1st02. 5/2 Azerbaijan (Safura - Drip Drop) 5th03. 8/1 Denmark (Chanée & N'evergreen - In A Moment Like This) 4th04. 8/1 Israel (Harel Skaat - Milim) 14th05. 14/1 Armenia (Eva Rivas - Apricot Stone) 7th06. 16/1  Croatia (Feminnem - Lako Je Sve) 13th (SF)07. 20/1 Norway (Didrik Solli-Tangen - My Heart Is Yours) 20th08. 22/1 Sweden (Anna Bergendahl - This Is My Life) 11th (SF)09. 25/1 Ireland (Niamh Kavanagh - It's For You) 23rd10. 28/1 Greece (Giorgos Alkaios and Friends - OPA) 8th(William Hill) 2009 QUOTE(David @ Apr 7 2009, 12:16 AM) 01. 6/4 Norway (Alexander Rybak - Fairytale) 1st02. 9/2 Greece (Sakis Rouvas - This Is Our Night) 7th03. 8/1 Turkey (Hadise - Düm Tek Tek) 4th04. 8/1  Montenegro (Andrea Demirović - Just Get Out Of My Life) 11th (SF)05. 10/1 Azerbaijan (AySel and Arash - Always) 3rd06. 12/1 Sweden (Malena Ernman - La Voix) 21st07. 14/1  Malta (Chiara - What If We?) 22nd08. 18/1 United Kingdom (Jade Ewen - It's My Time) 5th09. 25/1 Estonia (Urban Symphony - Rändajad) 6th10. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Regina - Bistra Voda) 9th11. 25/1 France (Patricia Kaas - Et S'il Fallait Le Faire) 8th12. 25/1 Spain (Soraya - La Noche Es Para Mí (The Night Is For Me)) 24th13. 25/1 Russia (Anastasiya Prikhodko - Mamo) 11th14. 33/1 Finland (Waldo's People - Lose Control) 25th15. 33/1 Iceland (Yohanna - Is It True?) 2nd(Paddy Power) 2008 QUOTE(David @ Apr 23 2008, 10:40 PM) 01. 7/2 Russia (Dima Bilan - Believe) 1st02. 9/2 Serbia (Jelena Tomašević feat. Bora Dugić - Oro) 6th03. 5/1 Ireland (Dustin The Turkey - Irelande Douze Pointe) 15th (SF)04. 11/2 Armenia (Sirusho - Qele, Qele) 4th05. 7/1 Ukraine (Ani Lorak - Shady Lady) 2nd06. 9/1 Sweden (Charlotte Perrelli - Hero) 18th07. 18/1  Bulgaria (Deep Zone and Balthazar - DJ, Take Me Away) 11th (SF)08. 20/1 Greece (Kalomira - Secret Combination) 3rd09. 20/1 Spain (Rodolfo Chikilicuatre - Baila El Chiki-Chiki) 16th10. 22/1 France (Sébastian Tellier) 19th11. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Laka - Pokušaj) 10th12. 25/1  Latvia (Pirates Of The Sea - Wolves Of The Sea) 12th13. 25/1 Turkey (Mor ve Ötesi - Deli) 7th14. 25/1  Switzerland (Paolo Meneguzzi - Era Stupendo) 13th (SF)15. 25/1 Romania (Nico and Vlad - Pe-o Margine de Lume) 20th(Paddy Power) 2007 QUOTE(David @ Apr 16 2007, 09:54 PM) 01. 5/1 Switzerland (DJ Bobo - Vampires Are Alive) 20th (SF)02. 7/1 Sweden (The Ark - The Worrying Kind) 18th03. 8/1 Serbia (Marija Šerifović - Molitva) 1st04. 8/1 Belarus (Koldun - Work Your Magic) 6th05. 11/1 Ukraine (Verka Serduchka - Dancing Lasha Tumbai) 2nd06. 11/1 Bulgaria (Elitsa Todorova and Stoyan Yankoulov - Water) 5th07. 12/1 Russia (Serebro - Song #1) 3rd08. 14/1 Greece (Sarbel - Yassou Maria) 7th09. 16/1 Romania (Todomondo - Liubi, Liubi, I Love You) 13th10. 16/1 Cyprus (Evridiki - Comme ci, Comme ça) 15th (SF)11. 20/1 Slovenia (Alenka Gotar - Cvet Z Juga) 15th12. 20/1 United Kingdom (Scooch - Flying The Flag (For You)) 22nd13. 20/1 Malta (Olivia Lewis - Vertigo) 25th (SF)14. 25/1 Latvia (Bonaparti.lv - Questa Notte) 16th15. 25/1 Spain (D'NASH - I Love You Mi Vida) 20th(Paddy Power) Last year was pretty predictable following a very unpredictable 2014! |
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18th February 2016, 05:51 PM
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#4
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Again not that it means much but Poland's odds have been slashed to 10/1 and are now third favourites! *.*
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21st February 2016, 07:53 PM
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#5
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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And they have been shortened drastically again and Poland now find themselves 7/2 favourites!
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21st February 2016, 07:56 PM
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,420 User: 12,929                |
Cool Me Down is not a Eurovision winner. Some people are just getting a bit excited.
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21st February 2016, 07:58 PM
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#7
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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I agree, I feel like it'd be low top 10 depending if she can perform it live as well as it needs to be performed, or if it is a car crash live then something along the lines of Kati Wolf. That said, I still am unconvinced Margaret will win the national final! Even though there's so little money in the market at the moment it must be like the first ever time Poland have topped the odds though.
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5th March 2016, 10:00 PM
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#8
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 I was born 7 million years ago in Sweden, Africa
Joined: 4 October 2010
Posts: 13,253 User: 11,955
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I imagine Poland will PLUMMET any minute now
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5th March 2016, 10:01 PM
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#9
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,022 User: 5,342
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It was already as low as 38.0 just now I heard!
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5th March 2016, 11:21 PM
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#10
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Sweden officially top on Oddschecker now...
At this stage I would LOVE Dami to pull out a mega pop tune and take victory! |
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7th March 2016, 03:16 AM
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#11
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Brown cow, stunning!
Joined: 7 December 2009
Posts: 67,176 User: 10,139
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I really have confidence Dami can be a strong contender <3 Other than that, from what's revealed so far I can just see Sweden taking it again with bloody Frans, and I can't see who else is left to reveal being the ones to pull that off. I think Ukraine might be a bit of a talking point because of the strong emotion in the song and how it will be performed/come across but maybe only in an "impressive top 5" sort of way.
I mean nobody would have called the top 2 in 2014 at this point so maybe we'll have another random year like that 
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17th March 2016, 07:46 PM
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#12
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,050 User: 116
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Malta's odds have massively shortened...they're third favourites with some bookies now behind Russia in the lead pretty much everywhere. Franz second but seems to be drifting a little, which surprises me seeing as it seems a lot more 'European hit friendly' than Russia.
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17th March 2016, 07:52 PM
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#13
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I was born 7 million years ago in Sweden, Africa
Joined: 4 October 2010
Posts: 13,253 User: 11,955
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Take that revenge Ira *.*
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17th March 2016, 07:54 PM
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#14
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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They are actually drifting a bit, the best you could get prior to the reveal following the hype since yesterday was 11/1 and now you can get 20/1 but I don't think they deserve to drift any further!
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22nd March 2016, 04:57 PM
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#15
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,050 User: 116
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Interesting that Russia are firm favourites to win, with Sweden drifting back to 5/1, considering it's pretty obvious that Frans will have the bigger hit outside the contest. Will certainly be interesting to see if the voting mirrors this or if Frans is just a Common Linnets case of being a solid hit throughout Europe and having more success than the winner but not winning the contest.
Then again, Grande Amore won the televote last year yet didn't perform anywhere near as well as Heroes in European charts. |
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22nd March 2016, 05:01 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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I can't see anyone other than Russia or Sweden winning at this stage but maybe I can't see past their reputations. I think if both ended up in the first half then I'd make Sweden favourite of the two, but if Russia end up second half then it'll be theirs to lose.
Outside these two I think I'd have Serbia as one of the most likely winners which is obviously an unusual opinion, but a late draw could see that firmly inside the top 5 at the very least. Going to do a full odds update now as I haven't really analysed them outside of the top 5/6! |
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22nd March 2016, 05:03 PM
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#17
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thanks for being a sarcy lil bitch
Joined: 25 September 2007
Posts: 79,277 User: 4,397      |
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Mar 22 2016, 08:01 PM) Outside these two I think I'd have Serbia as one of the most likely winners which is obviously an unusual opinion, but a late draw could see that firmly inside the top 5 at the very least. Going to do a full odds update now as I haven't really analysed them outside of the top 5/6! YASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS |
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22nd March 2016, 06:34 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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So the first complete odds update is here!
 As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with ties split by latest Betfair Exchange odds.01 | 002/1 | Russia · Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One02 | 013/2 | Sweden · Frans - If I Were Sorry03 | 011/1 | Croatia · Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse04 | 014/1 | Australia · Dami Im - Sound Of Silence05 | 016/1 | Malta · Ira Losco - Walk On Water06 | 018/1 | Latvia · Justs - Heartbeat07 | 020/1 | France · Amir - J'ai cherché08 | 025/1 | Serbia · Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter)09 | 025/1 | Ukraine · Jamala - 194410 | 030/1 | Azerbaijan · Samra - Miracle11 | 033/1 | Armenia · Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave12 | 033/1 | Italy · Francesca Michielin - No Degree Of Separation13 | 033/1 | Cyprus · Minus One - Alter Ego14 | 040/1 | Bulgaria · Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime15 | 040/1 | Spain · Barei - Say Yay!16 | 045/1 | Germany · Jamie-Lee - Ghost17 | 050/1 | Hungary · Freddie - Pioneer18 | 060/1 | Iceland · Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling19 | 066/1 | Poland · Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life20 | 066/1 | Norway · Agnete - Icebreaker21 | 080/1 | The Netherlands · Douwe Bob - Slow Down22 | 080/1 |  Czech Republic · Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand23 | 100/1 |  Austria · ZOË - Loin d'ici24 | 125/1 |  Lithuania · Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night25 | 125/1 | United Kingdom · Joe and Jake - You're Not Alone26 | 125/1 | Ireland · Nicky Byrne - Sunlight27 | 200/1 | Estonia · Jüri Pootsmann - Play28 | 200/1 | Denmark · Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love29 | 300/1 | Belgium · Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure30 | 300/1 | Israel · Hovi Star - Made Of Stars31 | 300/1 | Finland · Sandhja - Sing It Away32 | 300/1 |  F.Y.R. Macedonia · Kaliopi - Dona33 | 300/1 | Romania · Ovidiu Anton - Moment Of Silence34 | 300/1 | Greece · Argo - Utopian Land35 | 500/1 | San Marino · Serhat - I Didn't Know36 | 500/1 | Switzerland · Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind37 | 500/1 | Belarus · IVAN - Help You Fly38 | 500/1 | Slovenia · ManuElla - Blue And Red39 | 500/1 | Albania · Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale40 | 500/1 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je41 | 500/1 |  Moldova · Lidia Isac - Falling Stars42 | 500/1 | Georgia · Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold43 | 500/1 | Montenegro · Highway - The Real Thing
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22nd March 2016, 06:39 PM
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#19
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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My each way tips at this point would probably be Hungary, Iceland, The Netherlands and Lithuania in terms of big priced options and as I said earlier, Serbia each way at 25/1 seems very good value too.
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22nd March 2016, 06:52 PM
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#20
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 All I See br29
Joined: 17 August 2011
Posts: 12,907 User: 14,659
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France top 10, really?
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