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BuzzJack Music Forum _ UK Charts _ Q3 & Q4 chart predictions
Posted by: mdh 22nd August 2016, 03:26 PM
I was wondering (think I've seen threads like this before on the forum but not in the last 6 months) if it'd be cool if we PREDICTED who we think is going to have a hit single/flop single in the time between now and the end of 2016. Then at the end of the year we can look back and see how wrong/right we were.
OK - my predictions - some of these are just a stab in the dark~
- Rita Ora will have another top 10 single, around as big as Tears.
- Speaking of Clean Bandit, they'll make another Jess Glynne collab that comes out around November.
- Harry Styles will have a #2 single - stopped by another huge release
- This years X-Factor winner will STORM to number one.
- Stormzy will have another half-hearted attempt at getting a Christmas number one, but his song will flop in the low top 20.
- Gotye will release a minor hit.
- The John Lewis soundtrack will be sung by Frances and the song will peak at #7.
- Ella Henderson and John Newman will both have another solo top 10 hit.
- We will have a week in October where we see 3 or more new entries in the top 10.
- Fleur East will release another track that'll enter in that week after an X-Factor performance the day after release and Physicals being available.
Your turn 
Posted by: danG 22nd August 2016, 03:30 PM
Gotye? you having a giggle?
Frances singing the John Lewis ad is a good shout though actually, she very much fits the bill.
And I think Harry Styles will enter at #1 with his debut single with at least 120,000 chart sales.
Something tells me Justin Bieber has another huge song as a lead artist waiting to smash in Q4 too.
Posted by: JosephSpears 22nd August 2016, 03:37 PM
Interesting predictions there! Here's my take on them ~
- Speaking of Clean Bandit, they'll make another Jess Glynne collab that comes out around November. Please god no :') I'm not sure they'll run back to her so quickly, not like they've just had a flop or anything.
- Harry Styles will have a #2 single - stopped by another huge release Don't think Harry's releasing til next year! Regardless I think it'll be a huge first week whenever it does occur, would need to be a huuuuge hit to stop it I think going by who he's worked with and what they've said of his material.
- This years X-Factor winner will STORM to number one. I can see this happening! Depends on whether they learnt from last year's mistakes or not.
- Stormzy will have another half-hearted attempt at getting a Christmas number one, but his song will flop in the low top 20. LOL I can totally see this :')
- Gotye will release a minor hit. He may release something but I can't see it even troubling the top 200
- The John Lewis soundtrack will be sung by Frances and the song will peak at #7. Good shout! May struggle to get so high depending on the song though, so many variables with this one, depends on both how much people like the song and the advert, and who sings it.
- Ella Henderson and John Newman will both have another solo top 10 hit. It feels like the right time for Ella to come back for her second album, she's guaranteed an X Factor slot too if she releases soon! John Newman may struggle though if he's putting out stuff like Olé.
- We will have a week in October where we see 3 or more new entries in the top 10. Could happen with some big releases!
- Fleur East will release another track that'll enter in that week after an X-Factor performance the day after release and Physicals being available.
I can definitely see them pressing on with a brand new single from album 2, and she could have another hit if they handle it as well as they did with Sax.A few others:
- Nathan Sykes will get an X Factor performance to tie in with his album but the song likely won't trouble the top 40.
- Justin Bieber re-issues Purpose with Cold Water and Let Me Love You tacked on as bonus tracks, plus a brand new single that debuts at #1.
- Mariah outdoes The Pogues once again *.*
Posted by: mdh 22nd August 2016, 03:40 PM
You forgot a bit
Posted by: slowdown73 22nd August 2016, 03:41 PM
OK - my predictions - some of these are just a stab in the dark~
- Rita Ora will have another top 10 single, around as big as Tears.
- Speaking of Clean Bandit, they'll make another Jess Glynne collab that comes out around November.
- Harry Styles will have a #2 single - stopped by another huge release
- This years X-Factor winner will STORM to number one.
- Stormzy will have another half-hearted attempt at getting a Christmas number one, but his song will flop in the low top 20.
- Gotye will release a minor hit.
- The John Lewis soundtrack will be sung by Frances and the song will peak at #7.
- Ella Henderson and John Newman will both have another solo top 10 hit.
- We will have a week in October where we see 3 or more new entries in the top 10.
- Fleur East will release another track that'll enter in that week after an X-Factor performance the day after release and Physicals being available.
Your turn
I don't agree with the x factor prediction. I think the show is on its way out (hopefully) and viewing figures will drop again this year. The winner will most likely reach top10 though and might be more successful in terms of sales than last years winner.
Posted by: JosephSpears 22nd August 2016, 03:43 PM
!! LOL that's the most accurate prediction of all
Posted by: danG 22nd August 2016, 03:44 PM
maybe X Factor will ask Clean Bandit to produce the winner's single this year, seeing as it worked so well for Louisa Johnson?
Posted by: JosephSpears 22nd August 2016, 03:48 PM
This would be a GENIUS move. Therefore it won't happen :')
(why can't talent shows learn from the success of Sound of the Underground 14 years ago
you don't need a ballad!!1!)
Posted by: gooddelta 22nd August 2016, 03:48 PM
It will be interesting to see what happens with the X Factor winner. The problem is streams of course, or lack of, and this will be an even bigger issue this year as the streaming market continues to swell to the detriment of paid for sales.
A popular winner with a good song (please GOD get a good song lined up for once Simon) might muster up 50-70k paid for sales and a 20-30k stream contribution but will that be enough to top the Xmas chart? Will they even go for the Xmas #1 again this year following Louisa's embarrassment? Hopefully the answer is no on both counts.
Posted by: PeteFromLeeds 22nd August 2016, 04:01 PM
Go on then, let's have a go at this:
- The X Factor winners' single will not reach the Top 25
- Chris Rea - Driving Home For Christmas will reach the Top 20
- Someone will release an album in Mid-October where at least 5 songs reach the Top 40
- Drake will try to release a single from his album which flops miserably
- The record for the biggest drop from #1 in the Albums Chart will be broken
- Gareth Malone will cobble together another choir which will enter 25-40
- Harry Styles will release a song which goes straight in at #1 but spends less than 15 weeks in the Top 40 overall
- The Stone Roses will release a third single which doesn't enter the Top 40
- Clean Bandit will release a song with Love Ssega which doesn't enter the Top 40
- The next Little Mix single will be 'Grown' but it will be edited hugely Little Mix will release a brand new single which will go Top 10 immediately
- There will be more #1s between now and the end of 2016 than there has been all this year
Bet you all these are wrong
Posted by: danG 22nd August 2016, 04:12 PM
I very much doubt The X Factor will try for the Christmas #1 this year after what happened, they'll go a week earlier to try and secure a #1 (but even that will be hard because of streaming).
I wonder if we'll finally get a non-charity record be the Christmas #1 this year too, I think this year it will happen
Posted by: mdh 22nd August 2016, 04:13 PM
Yeah, hopefully it's not a track that's spent ages at number one - I'd like at least some sort of battle.
Posted by: JosephSpears 22nd August 2016, 04:14 PM
They've got a brand new single out in October!
Posted by: mowino 22nd August 2016, 04:15 PM
Rihanna's R9 debut single will go #1
Justice for Work & This is What You Came For
Posted by: mdh 22nd August 2016, 04:16 PM
Little Mix confirmed in an interview with Capital the other day that their next single will be out in Mid-October and the lead from their new album ;o
(that's where I got my 3-or-more-top-10-new-entries prediction from
)
Posted by: danG 22nd August 2016, 04:16 PM
It will either be a song that's spent ages at number one, or a song that will go on to spend ages at number one.
Posted by: mdh 22nd August 2016, 04:17 PM
The sad truth unfortunately, I do hope the Spotify turnover does speed up a bit in the future :/
Posted by: Rob S 22nd August 2016, 04:18 PM
Hopefully some big star can produce a traditional Christmas song that goes to #1 this year although it's unlikely with streaming. I think Leona was the closest we're going to get for a few more years I guess!
Posted by: PeteFromLeeds 22nd August 2016, 04:27 PM
Oh
I red that they had a new single out, I just assumed it was from this album
Posted by: mdh 22nd August 2016, 04:35 PM
I red that they had a new single out, I just assumed it was from this album
Yeah Joseph's white, don't feel blue about being wrong tho, keep that big green on your face.
Posted by: Chez Wombat 22nd August 2016, 04:38 PM
I feel like from now on the Christmas chart will likely be just like any other chart in the year along with the token classic Christmas songs, special/charity releases will be pretty much shot dead by streaming, true there could be some years where something pops up unexpected like last year, but streaming's only growing stronger by the year.
Posted by: PeteFromLeeds 22nd August 2016, 04:43 PM
What if the Christmas single was released a few weeks before on Spotify? That would allow the streamming to build up, and then it could be released on Itunes the week before to maximise the sales?
Posted by: SevenSees 22nd August 2016, 05:05 PM
Ed Sheeran will release a new single, it goes straight to #1 with the album being one of the year's massive Q4 sellers (Bublé being the other, obviously)
"The Ocean", "Lost Boy" and "Would I Lie To You" all become big hits
Craig David will notch up another decent-sized hit single after an X Factor performance
Little Mix's new single/album both perform very well over the Q4 period
Miley Cyrus will manage a pretty successful comeback, then performs her big hit single on X Factor, and sends people into a frenzy after she smokes a joint on stage
A new Fleur East single will be released, it won't be anywhere as memorable as 'Sax' and Buzzjack will predict it to miss the Top 100, but ends up hitting the Top 10 after the label eventually start selling it for 29p (which soon becomes a trend)
Ella Henderson brings out new stuff, Mirror Man promptly returns to save the uk chart forum from the doldrums
John Newman brings out a new album, that sadly flops due to the UK's lack of taste
Pixie Lott releases a christmas song, with the music video being a disaster of glorious proportions
The X Factor winner's single will perform far better than last year's (which i can only imagine was a blip on the radar due to its immense forgettable-ness)
The Christmas #1 will be either said XF Winner or Random Charity Single #250
i may think of more~
Posted by: SLlewellyn 22nd August 2016, 05:30 PM
The 'Views' album tracks have all gone
Posted by: danG 22nd August 2016, 08:19 PM
Remember that Justin Bieber's 'Company' didn't do much when pushed as a proper single despite making #25 as an album track.
Posted by: Mart!n 22nd August 2016, 08:54 PM
Drake will release a new single late October, and stays at #1 for another 4 months that's this year sewn up
X Factor winners single will be released in the New Year.
Posted by: cqmerqn 22nd August 2016, 11:21 PM
Drake will release a new mixtape
Ellie Goulding reissues Delirium but fails to make the top ten.
The XFactors winners single won't go top ten
Calvin Harris retires
Posted by: Jade 22nd August 2016, 11:51 PM
- Michelle McManus and Mr Showbiz collab on a Christmas song
- Taylor Swift releases a massive single to kick off the next era but it misses #1 due to her anti-streaming tendencies
- Sam Smith inflicts the world with new 'music' again in Q4. Hopefully not though.
- The X Factor single will miss the top 20 this year
- A Christmas campaign to get El Chombo's 'Chacarron' to #1 materialises (maybe moreso wishful thinking)
- Green Day have a big #1 album
- Bieber pulls a massive hit out the bag again
Posted by: BillyH 23rd August 2016, 01:09 AM
One of the Christmas #1 chart "campaigns" is Pokémon related, either the original TV theme or this abomination from the bloke who later formed Rooster:
(a top 40-missing flop from 2001)
Profits to charity etc.
Posted by: T Boy 23rd August 2016, 08:19 AM
10 of the week's current top 40 will still be there by Christmas.
Pink will release an amazing album but it won't sell as well as usual.
KT Tunstall's album will go unnoticed.
The chart will move ever so slightly faster in the coming months leading posters to get excited 'see, it's not stale!' Yet casual followers still won't be able to tell the difference.
No one will give a shit about the Christmas chart.
Posted by: Bjork 23rd August 2016, 08:49 AM
what about Gaga? Think she could make a big comeback especially if the new single done with Mark Ronson is a sorta revamped Uptown Funk 
Ed Sheeran should be back and should dominate Q4
what about Emeli Sande? Shouldn't she be coming back too?
Posted by: danG 23rd August 2016, 08:51 AM
Lady GaGa will plan her latest pop emergency for sometime this September and it will miss the top 10
Posted by: PeteFromLeeds 23rd August 2016, 09:07 AM
PLEASE LET THIS HAPPEN
Isn't that just taken for granted?
Posted by: danG 23rd August 2016, 09:41 AM
Pokemon original TV theme for Xmas #1 tho *_* someone make that happen
Posted by: Joe. 23rd August 2016, 09:44 AM
Oh my gosh Grown would flop so badly. Awful song. Thankfully they have a brand new Banger out in October, and I expect it to do a lot better than Love Me Like You did as an On Air sale, given their profile has doubled since then.
Posted by: PeteFromLeeds 23rd August 2016, 10:58 AM
Not a fan of Little Mix but, if they do have a brand new single coming out soon, I expect it would go Top 10 immediately. They've got the support.
Speaking of which, I think its time to change my predictions
Posted by: mdh 23rd August 2016, 11:07 AM
!!!
Another prediction-
- The same 6 people including myself continue to spam the iTunes thread every single Friday and get far too excited about new songs that won't do anything in the chart.
Posted by: ML Hammer95 23rd August 2016, 11:08 AM
At least one Top 20 hit from the UK urban scene. Maybe new Stormzy material or something already bubbling under... my tip: Bike Engine by Stylo G
One more urban hit from America that bubbles under on Spotify before blowing up.
Controlla to pushed as a single over the Autumn and peak in the Top 10. Perhaps by pushing the Popcaan version to keep it fresh.
Sean Paul to premiere a new song which properly blows up in early 2017. Now he's re-signed to a major label.
Posted by: danG 23rd August 2016, 11:44 AM
Is it too late for Broccoli to be the next big urban hit from America? It sounds like a hit but it's been bubbling under for a while now.
Posted by: mdh 23rd August 2016, 11:47 AM
^^^ I nearly replied with that aha. Something we don't know will probably pop up out of nowhere - maybe even another track from the likes of Fetty Wap/Desiigner.
Posted by: fiesta 23rd August 2016, 11:55 AM
Mariah Carey, Pogues, Slade and Wham will all be in the chart in the weeks before xmas
Posted by: PeteFromLeeds 23rd August 2016, 11:55 AM
Fetty Wap has a new one out now, I think. It's called 'Different Now' but I haven't heard it yet
Posted by: PeteFromLeeds 23rd August 2016, 11:58 AM
And Wizard. And Chris Rea.
Slade haven't made the Top 40 for 3 years though
Posted by: mdh 23rd August 2016, 11:59 AM
Yeah it doesn't sound very big. Will probably do a Jimmy Choo and have next to no impact - I reckon he needs a big collab to get a hit.
Posted by: PeteFromLeeds 23rd August 2016, 12:07 PM
Just listened to it and agree with you. 'Wake Up' wasn't a hit here either - he definitely needs to up his game (although I'm not a big fan of him myself)
Posted by: mdh 23rd August 2016, 12:16 PM
Yeah, you're right - we could do with another All Around The World (FANTASTIC track from last year that was a minor hit if I remember), he seems to thrive alongside female vocals (take Bang My Head and Flex [All In My Head] as more prime examples).
I'm gonna make a stab at a Rita Ora ft Fetty Wap collaboration before the year's out
Posted by: ML Hammer95 23rd August 2016, 01:55 PM
Been playlisted on 1Xtra and being played on late night R1... I wouldnt give up hope just yet. Another month or so and it'll be clearer. My prediction is that it'll just miss the Top 40.
Fetty Wap won't have a hit nearly as big as Trap Queen/My Way/679 this year! The new one isn't accessible enough and definitely a case of quality over quantity. Desiigner seems a bit 'niche' but Kent Jones has potential.
Posted by: Jandeep 24th August 2016, 09:34 AM
The x factors winners single will be a collaboration with Clean Bandits, Sigma or Disclosure
Micheal Buble or Ed Sheran if he releases will xmas 1 and 2 in the run up weeks
Pink, Gaga and Katy Perry will launch new singles and albums with an x factor performance
Rihanna will rerelease Anti with a new big song plus the Drake and Calvin songs
Rick Astly and Christine and Queens will be on strictly and continue to sell
Drake may be one of this years top sellers
There will be another charity song that comes out of nowhere and challenges for xmas No.1
Buble will be everywhere from late October onwards to try and right the wrongs from his last good but not great selling last album
Union J will again try and have a hit with a surprise performance on X factor
We have not heard the last from Fleir East yet, rerelease of album and new single
Simon will try and push Louisa Johnson as much as possible
Little Mix will have the One Direction slot on X Factor final
Posted by: ThePensmith 25th August 2016, 10:32 PM
Well, based on the fact a clip of her new material has just gone live and is spreading like wildfire I predict Emeli Sande's second album to be released and do an Adele sales wise.
I'm anticipating Michael Bublé to smash it with his new album. Louisa Johnson to release an album that debuts low top 10 but goes no further, followed by the inevitable "parting company from SyCo" announcement.
Fleur East and Little Mix to re-release their current albums as special editions with new singles and DVDs a la Olly Murs. And speaking of Olly, album 5 to smash it as always
Posted by: scratchy23 25th August 2016, 10:50 PM
XF winners single won't follow the same usual formula. They'll do something totally different and it'll fare better than last year.
Gaga's song and album will be big
Emeli Sande will get a #1 album with huge sales
Craig David will get a #1 album
Ariana will perform on X Factor and we will all be slain
Bieber will get another #1
Louisa's solo single won't be as big as Tears
Posted by: Eva_coco_may 25th August 2016, 11:29 PM
Okay so
Fleur east Is working on her second album - i doubt we'll hear anything more of LSAF, shel have a slot on XF and slay it! Expecting a collab as she has hinted
little mix new single and album to follow with Dvd of tour
Louisa Johnson new single and album
One direction lads individually all probably have something out before end of year
XF winners single
Nicole SCherzy - something new?
Adele and Beiber probably hog number 1
Posted by: T Boy 26th August 2016, 01:18 PM
Who wants Emeli Sande to do an Adele tho?
Posted by: cqmerqn 26th August 2016, 01:22 PM
Not me
Posted by: Common Sense 26th August 2016, 02:59 PM
She won't sell anywhere near what Adele did first week.
Posted by: cqmerqn 1st September 2016, 10:21 AM
A few predictions...
* Fleur East will have another smash hit single.
* Calvin Harris and Ellie Goulding will collaborate for their 3rd single.
* Louisa Johnson releases a single and does well, but the album will flop.
* Zara Larsson will release a song but it will flop, however her album will smash.
* The Christmas number one will be courtesy of a choir
* Justin Bieber's 'Purpose' will go number one.
* Zayn releases a new song, but flops....
* Harry and Liam will both release singles, with the former smashing and the latter flopping.
Posted by: twentyonehorrors 28th October 2016, 07:35 AM
#psychicMart!n that's bang on so far.
Let's just hope you're right with the latter part
Posted by: Steve201 29th October 2016, 12:55 PM
I hope Buble version of IBTLALC finally peaks in the top 40 although it might have to wait until a different year!
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