  |
 Does anyone here honestly think Boris will lose his seat? |
| Track this thread - Email this thread - Print this thread - Download this thread - Subscribe to this forum |
 5th November 2019, 07:27 PM
Post
#21
|
|
 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 
     |
QUOTE(Freddie Kruger @ Nov 5 2019, 08:25 PM)  Here are the 10 most marrginal seats in the UK. No famous names there. 1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone Michelle Gildernew Sinn Féin Independent 4 0.2 Hampstead and Kilburn Glenda Jackson Labour Conservative 42 0.1% 3 North Warwickshire Daniel Byles Conservative Labour 54 0.1% 4 Camborne and Redruth George Eustice Conservative Liberal Democrat 66 0.2% 5 Bolton West Julie Hilling Labour Conservative 92 0.2% 5 Thurrock Jackie Doyle-Price Conservative Labour 92 0.2% 7 Oldham East and Saddleworth* Phil Woolas Labour Liberal Democrat 103 0.2% 8 Hendon Matthew Offord Conservative Labour 106 0.2% 9 Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield Labour Liberal Democrat 165 0.4% 10 Solihull Lorely Burt Liberal Democrat Conservative 175 0.3% That's a very old list - I know because I remember Michelle Gildernew winning her seat by 4 votes in 2010, was a bit of a big deal round these parts. And Glenda Jackson is a very famous name, not just for politics. |
 |
 
|
|
5th November 2019, 07:33 PM
Post
#22
|
|
 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
  |
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Nov 5 2019, 07:27 PM) That's a very old list - I know because I remember Michelle Gildernew winning her seat by 4 votes in 2010, was a bit of a big deal round these parts. And Glenda Jackson is a very famous name, not just for politics. Yes sorry, didn't notice her. Also didn't notice it's from the 2010 election. 
This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: 5th November 2019, 07:35 PM |
|
|
|
|
5th November 2019, 08:11 PM
Post
#23
|
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
|
Can't seem to find an updated list of marginals.
|
|
|
|
|
6th November 2019, 05:42 AM
Post
#24
|
|
 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
|
QUOTE(Freddie Kruger @ Nov 5 2019, 08:11 PM) Can't seem to find an updated list of marginals. I can send one if you PM me. |
|
|
|
|
6th November 2019, 07:34 AM
Post
#25
|
|
|
Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,084 User: 3,474
      |
The current seat with the closest margin is the one I’m voting in!! 2 vote margin in North East Fife between the SNP and the unionist tactically voting boosted Lib Dems
|
|
|
|
|
6th November 2019, 07:59 AM
Post
#26
|
|
|
Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
|
QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Nov 6 2019, 07:34 AM) The current seat with the closest margin is the one I’m voting in!! 2 vote margin in North East Fife between the SNP and the unionist tactically voting boosted Lib Dems Wonder which way it'll go? 
|
|
|
|
|
6th November 2019, 08:50 AM
Post
#27
|
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
|
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Nov 6 2019, 05:42 AM) I can send one if you PM me. Can you post it here then please Vid as am interested to see it and others may be too. Not too long, maybe 10 or 20. Ta. |
|
|
|
|
6th November 2019, 02:41 PM
Post
#28
|
|
|
Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
|
QUOTE(Freddie Kruger @ Nov 6 2019, 08:50 AM) Can you post it here then please Vid as am interested to see it and others may be too. Not too long, maybe 10 or 20. Ta. Can do, but the list will need to be rather longer to be useful, and the formatting dodgy... Seat Win Maj % 2nd Place Tory targets Newcastle-under-Lyme Lab 30 0.07 Con Crewe and Nantwich Lab 48 0.09 Con Canterbury Lab 187 0.33 Con Barrow and Furness Lab 209 0.44 Con Keighley Lab 239 0.46 Con Lanark and Hamilton East SNP 266 0.53 Con Ashfield Lab 441 0.88 Con Stroud Lab 687 1.08 Con Bishop Auckland Lab 502 1.16 Con Peterborough Lab 607 1.27 Con Oxford West and Abingdon LD 816 1.36 Con Westmorland and Lonsdale LD 777 1.50 Con Colne Valley Lab 915 1.51 Con Bedford Lab 789 1.63 Con Ipswich Lab 836 1.63 Con Stockton South Lab 888 1.65 Con Edinburgh South West SNP 1097 2.22 Con Warwick and Leamington Lab 1206 2.23 Con Penistone and Stocksbridge Lab 1322 2.66 Con Carshalton and Wallington LD 1369 2.70 Con Using MM's fantasy election method, Con were just about 1050 votes from an overall majority in 2017...  Lab targets Southampton Itchen Con 31 0.07 Lab Glasgow South West SNP 60 0.17 Lab Glasgow East SNP 75 0.21 Lab Arfon PC 92 0.33 Lab Airdrie and Shotts SNP 195 0.51 Lab Pudsey Con 331 0.61 Lab Hastings and Rye Con 346 0.63 Lab Chipping Barnet Con 353 0.64 Lab Thurrock Con 345 0.69 Lab Preseli Pembrokeshire Con 314 0.74 Lab Motherwell and Wishaw SNP 318 0.76 Lab Inverclyde SNP 384 0.98 Lab Calder Valley Con 609 1.05 Lab Norwich North Con 507 1.10 Lab Broxtowe Con 863 1.55 Lab Stoke-on-Trent South Con 663 1.59 Lab Telford Con 720 1.61 Lab Dunfermline and Fife West SNP 844 1.65 Lab Bolton West Con 936 1.83 Lab Aberconwy Con 635 1.98 Lab LD targets Fife North East SNP 2 0.00 LD Richmond Park Con 45 0.07 LD Ceredigion PC 104 0.26 LD St Ives Con 312 0.61 LD Sheffield Hallam Lab 2125 3.73 LD Cheltenham Con 2569 4.51 LD Devon North Con 4332 7.78 LD Cheadle Con 4507 8.26 LD Leeds North West Lab 4224 9.13 LD Lewes Con 5508 10.16 LD St Albans Con 6109 10.72 LD Wells Con 7582 12.46 LD Hazel Grove Con 5514 12.49 LD Cornwall North Con 7200 14.13 LD Winchester Con 9999 17.49 LD Brecon and Radnorshire Con 8038 19.45 LD Bermondsey and Old Southwark Lab 12972 22.17 LD Cambridge Lab 12661 22.64 LD Thornbury and Yate Con 12071 23.81 LD Sutton and Cheam Con 12698 24.43 LD This post has been edited by vidcapper: 6th November 2019, 02:46 PM |
|
|
|
|
6th November 2019, 02:51 PM
Post
#29
|
|
 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,420 User: 12,929             |
That is helpful, thanks. Definitely think it's not going to be a clean sweep for the Cons in Cornwall again, I was very surprised they retained St. Ives last time, I reckon that and Cornwall North will go LD with the other 4 staying Con (and unfortunately that includes the three worst Tories out of the 6, and the fourth, mine, has stepped down so will probably be a new right-wing recruit :/)
Meanwhile it was the highlight of the 2017 night when Canterbury turned red but I can see that and a fair bit of that list going back to blue. Finding it a little hard to imagine many of those Labour targets coming through as much as I'd love to see Hastings & Rye and Chipping Barnet be among the scalps claimed in a good night. |
|
|
|
|
6th November 2019, 07:01 PM
Post
#30
|
|
|
Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
  |
Lib Dems vote increases in Labour-Tory marginals - even if it's as little as 3-5% in very Lib Dem-unfriendly areas like Stoke - will likely cost Labour a large number of seats.
This post has been edited by Harve: 6th November 2019, 07:02 PM |
|
|
|
|
6th November 2019, 10:36 PM
Post
#31
|
|
|
#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,171 User: 7,561
  |
It's possible, but sadly I don't think he will.
If the Tories were worried about polling in the constituency they would have parachuted him into a safer seat by now don't you think? |
|
|
|
|
7th November 2019, 03:52 PM
Post
#32
|
|
|
Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
|
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Nov 6 2019, 02:41 PM) Can do, but the list will need to be rather longer to be useful, and the formatting dodgy... Updated list of Tory & Labour targets 5-10% swing... Seat Win Maj % 2nd Lewes Con 5508 10.16 LD Gloucester Con 5520 10.21 Lab Nuneaton Con 4739 10.29 Lab Colchester Con 5677 10.60 Lab Aberdeen South Con 4752 10.68 SNP St Albans Con 6109 10.72 LD Uxbridge and Ruislip South Con 5034 10.78 Lab Wimbledon Con 5622 10.91 Lab Dumfries and Galloway Con 5643 10.94 SNP Plymouth Moor View Con 5019 11.05 Lab Shrewsbury and Atcham Con 6627 11.39 Lab Rochford and Southend East Con 5548 11.74 Lab Halesowen and Rowley Regis Con 5253 11.84 Lab Altrincham and Sale West Con 6426 12.17 Lab Wycombe Con 6578 12.30 Lab Dover Con 6437 12.39 Lab Wells Con 7582 12.46 LD Hazel Grove Con 5514 12.49 LD Thanet South Con 6387 12.84 Lab Devon East Con 7758 12.85 Ind South Ribble Con 7421 13.53 Lab Rushcliffe Con 8010 13.74 Lab Cornwall North Con 7200 14.13 LD Welwyn Hatfield Con 7369 14.26 Lab York Outer Con 8289 14.43 Lab Stafford Con 7729 14.89 Lab Swindon North Con 8335 15.18 Lab Kingswood Con 7500 15.39 Lab Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Con 7950 15.40 SNP Harlow Con 7031 15.68 Lab Macclesfield Con 8608 15.85 Lab Rugby Con 8212 16.00 Lab Stourbridge Con 7654 16.24 Lab Redditch Con 7363 16.29 Lab Bournemouth East Con 7937 16.33 Lab Elmet and Rothwell Con 9805 16.47 Lab Monmouth Con 8206 16.50 Lab Basingstoke Con 9466 16.92 Lab Bournemouth West Con 7711 17.33 Lab Winchester Con 9999 17.49 LD Waveney Con 9215 17.49 Lab Cannock Chase Con 8391 17.53 Lab Warwickshire North Con 8510 18.04 Lab Great Yarmouth Con 7973 18.06 Lab Hemel Hempstead Con 9445 18.07 Lab Amber Valley Con 8300 18.12 Lab Rochester and Strood Con 9850 18.32 Lab Forest of Dean Con 9502 18.36 Lab Croydon South Con 11406 18.62 Lab Somerset North East Con 10235 18.94 Lab Gravesham Con 9347 19.08 Lab Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Con 9441 19.28 SNP Gillingham and Rainham Con 9430 19.30 Lab Wrekin, The Con 9564 19.31 Lab Chelsea and Fulham Con 8188 19.44 Lab Brecon and Radnorshire Con 8038 19.45 LD Hexham Con 9236 19.98 Lab Bexleyheath and Crayford Con 9073 20.08 Lab Dagenham and Rainham Lab 4652 10.15 Con Birmingham Northfield Lab 4667 10.52 Con Delyn Lab 4240 10.76 Con Bridgend Lab 4700 10.87 Con Halifax Lab 5376 11.14 Con Don Valley Lab 5169 11.24 Con Bolsover Lab 5288 11.37 Con Clwyd South Lab 4356 11.62 Con Alyn and Deeside Lab 5235 11.70 Con Bury South Lab 5965 11.70 Con Stoke-on-Trent Central Lab 3897 11.76 Con Wirral West Lab 5365 12.21 Con West Bromwich West Lab 4460 12.36 Con Wolverhampton North East Lab 4587 12.56 Con Hyndburn Lab 5815 12.86 Con Newport West Lab 5658 13.03 Con Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Lab 6807 13.29 Con Chorley Lab 7512 13.50 Con Eltham Lab 6296 13.64 Con Ynys Mon Lab 5259 14.07 Con Lancaster and Fleetwood Lab 6661 14.48 Con Sedgefield Lab 6059 14.57 Con Heywood and Middleton Lab 7617 15.28 Con Burnley Lab 6353 15.77 Con Birmingham Edgbaston Lab 6917 15.86 Con Chester, City of Lab 9176 16.26 Con Bradford South Lab 6700 16.32 Con Batley and Spen Lab 8961 16.66 Con Coventry South Lab 7947 16.91 Con Coventry North West Lab 8580 17.21 Con Oldham East and Saddleworth Lab 8182 17.39 Con Ilford North Lab 9639 18.21 Con Hartlepool Lab 7650 18.29 Con Durham North West Lab 8792 18.35 Con Worsley and Eccles South Lab 8379 18.36 Con Wirral South Lab 8323 18.42 Con Blyth Valley Lab 7915 18.63 Con Stalybridge and Hyde Lab 8084 19.04 Con Birmingham Erdington Lab 7285 19.57 Con West Bromwich East Lab 7713 19.73 Con Warrington North Lab 9582 19.75 Con Brentford and Isleworth Lab 12182 19.77 Con Regards, |
|
|
|
|
7th November 2019, 07:13 PM
Post
#33
|
|
|
BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
|
Thanks Vid.
|
|
|
|
|
13th November 2019, 09:03 AM
Post
#34
|
|
|
Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
|
New update
Seats where the 3rd placed party could win on a swing of <10% Seat Total Win Maj % 2nd % 3rd Lanark and Hamilton East 50470 SNP 266 0.53 Con 0.71 Lab East Lothian 55878 Lab 3083 5.52 SNP 6.47 Con Edinburgh North and Leith 56552 SNP 1625 2.87 Lab 6.82 Con Linlithgow and Falkirk East 56094 SNP 2919 5.20 Lab 7.27 Con Fife North East 41822 SNP 2 0.00 LD 8.74 Con Edinburgh South West 49390 SNP 1097 2.22 Con 8.83 Lab Ceredigion 39767 PC 104 0.26 LD 9.07 Lab Paisley and Renfrewshire North 46615 SNP 2613 5.61 Lab 9.90 Con Dunfermline and Fife West 51010 SNP 844 1.65 Lab 10.84 Con Midlothian 45273 Lab 885 1.95 SNP 10.90 Con Ayrshire Central 45087 SNP 1267 2.81 Con 11.11 Lab Ayrshire North and Arran 47433 SNP 3633 7.66 Con 11.41 Lab Southport 47956 Con 2914 6.08 Lab 12.26 LD Edinburgh West 52795 LD 2988 5.66 SNP 12.40 Con Falkirk 53809 SNP 4923 9.15 Lab 12.76 Con Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 41029 PC 3908 9.52 Lab 13.04 Con Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 30901 LD 2044 6.61 SNP 13.17 Con Renfrewshire East 53738 Con 4712 8.77 SNP 13.31 Lab East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 54102 SNP 3866 7.15 Lab 13.53 Con Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath 46193 Lab 259 0.56 SNP 13.54 Con Airdrie and Shotts 38002 SNP 195 0.51 Lab 14.42 Con Ynys Mon 37367 Lab 5259 14.07 Con 14.47 PC Sheffield Hallam 57020 Lab 2125 3.73 LD 14.59 Con Stirling 49356 Con 148 0.30 SNP 14.97 Lab Kilmarnock and Loudoun 46509 SNP 6269 13.48 Lab 15.67 Con Livingston 52505 SNP 3878 7.39 Lab 15.69 Con Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock 46222 Con 2774 6.00 SNP 16.28 Lab Dundee East 42928 SNP 6645 15.48 Con 16.81 Lab Inverclyde 39093 SNP 384 0.98 Lab 17.01 Con Argyll and Bute 48069 SNP 1328 2.76 Con 17.81 LD Rutherglen and Hamilton West 50872 Lab 265 0.52 SNP 18.01 Con Motherwell and Wishaw 41926 SNP 318 0.76 Lab 18.27 Con Aberdeen North 36757 SNP 4139 11.26 Lab 18.58 Con Ross, Skye and Lochaber 38454 SNP 5919 15.39 Con 19.34 Lab Thurrock 50325 Con 345 0.69 Lab 19.41 UKIP Glasgow East 36166 SNP 75 0.21 Lab 19.93 Con Regards, |
|
|
|
|
| Time is now: 26th April 2024, 12:06 AM |
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 BuzzJack.com
About | Contact | Advertise | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service
