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Posted by: vidcapper 15th June 2016, 05:29 AM

This is not intended as a thread to discuss the pros & cons, but simply to post what you think the result will be.

1. The percentages for Leave/Remain

2. The turnout

Posted by: vidcapper 15th June 2016, 05:30 AM

My prediction :

Leave 51% Remain 49% (though with significant regional variations)

Turnout 70%

Posted by: Mdh 15th June 2016, 06:43 AM

Leave - 47%
Remain - 53%

Turnout - 69%

Posted by: vidcapper 15th June 2016, 08:22 AM

BTW, a year ago I expected that the result would be something like 60/40 in favour of Remain...

Posted by: gavindeejay 15th June 2016, 08:36 AM

Remain - 55%

Leave - 45%

Turnout - 77%

Posted by: Joe. 15th June 2016, 08:44 AM

Remain - 51%

Leave - 49%

Turnout - 64%

Posted by: Qween 15th June 2016, 08:50 AM

I think it's going to be damn near 50/50 at this point, which is quite terrifying really. For the sake of simplicity I will go with 51% Remain, 49% Leave and turnout around 65%.

Posted by: vidcapper 15th June 2016, 09:35 AM

One thing's for sure, if the result is very close either way, the issue is just going to rumble on (not to mention the inevitable accusations of vote-rigging).

Posted by: Chez Wombat 15th June 2016, 09:54 AM

Definitely not as confident as before, but I'll say Remain will just about win with 53-47, with around a 65% turnout. Wouldn't be surprised if England voted Leave and it's Scotland/Ireland that just keep us in.

It actually makes me sick to the stomach that Leave is a serious possibility now

Posted by: Qassändra 15th June 2016, 11:03 AM

REMAIN 54
LEAVE 46
TURNOUT 61

Posted by: vidcapper 15th June 2016, 11:10 AM

Whereas I'd be breaking out the champagne...

Posted by: Taylor Jago 15th June 2016, 11:11 AM

My most pessimistic expection would be 54% Leave, 46% Remain, but more realistically I'd say something among the lines of 52% Remain, 48% Leave on a 73% turnout.

Posted by: vidcapper 15th June 2016, 11:19 AM

I never thought of giving a range!

In that case I would say 48-52% either way (I hope there aren't splinters in the fence I am sitting on there... )

Posted by: Brett-Butler 15th June 2016, 11:33 AM

Remain - 55
Leave - 45
Turnout - 75%

Posted by: popchartfreak 15th June 2016, 01:12 PM

surely that would be an EU import

Leave 52%
Remain 48%

Even amongst recent immigrants there is strong racism against the former communist bloc. Reasoned arguments have no effect on emotional bias.

GHUA.

Posted by: Suedehead2 15th June 2016, 01:20 PM

Remain 52%
Leave 48%

Turnout 56%

Posted by: LexC 15th June 2016, 01:28 PM

Going to go with 53-47 to Remain with about a 65% turnout (which is more or less what it was at the last election I think?) which to my mind is waaaaay too close for comfort.

Posted by: Jade 15th June 2016, 01:30 PM

Remain - 53%
Leave - 47%
Turnout - 66%

Posted by: Iz~ 15th June 2016, 01:33 PM

Interesting how the turnout is varying so much. I'd call it at about mid-60s myself given you'd be hard pressed to go much higher than that but it'll most likely be a referendum that gets a rather high turnout given its importance.

I'd probably call the same as most of you, I have 50-50 stuck in my mind though, which would be awkward for all as it means the issue wouldn't even have the decency to get put to rest (not that I'd want it to get put to rest if it were Leave winning but I'd rather just be cutting ties with the people who took my EU citizenship from me rather than arguing more with them at that point).

Posted by: Qween 15th June 2016, 03:05 PM

I was fairly confident in a 55-45 Remain result up until the last week or so. I HOPE I'm wrong, I really do, but as awful and muddled as this has all been it just seems like Leave has been able to cut through the BS a bit more effectively to pull it dangerously close.

Posted by: Common Sense 15th June 2016, 10:24 PM

According to Robert Peston on ITV News last night, postal votes are showing a huge Leave majority, especially in the North.

So my prediction. 53% Leave 47% Remain.

Turnout 68%.

Posted by: Qassändra 15th June 2016, 10:27 PM

The demographics that have postal votes are favourable for Leave to begin with.

Posted by: Jack 15th June 2016, 10:30 PM

Pretty sure it will be leave. We had hoped for a decent result in last election and look what happened. The British Public are absolute morons, mostly racist and completely selfish. I'm so so so embarrassed to be British tbh.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 15th June 2016, 10:54 PM

I predict: 66% turnout


Leave: 46%
Remain: 54%

Posted by: Rooney 15th June 2016, 10:56 PM

remain: 52
leave: 48

turnout: 65

Posted by: Doctor Blind 15th June 2016, 11:08 PM

Given the large difference in population size this is actually quite unlikely (and would both require a narrow exit lead from England and sizeable remain lead from the other 3 UK nations), e.g. with a turnout of ~60% a 51-49 lead for exit in England is around 250K and would require a ~5% lead averaged out for remain. Increase that to just 3% and you have a mountain to climb a need an averaged remain vote lead of 16% across the other 3 nations.

Sadly it is much more likely that Scotland, N Ireland and Wales are dragged out by England if England votes leave by any significant margin.

Posted by: Common Sense 16th June 2016, 08:11 AM

No those of us who are voting LEAVE are not racist but realise that we can't go on with half of Europe coming here. As Nigel says, we need controlled immigration like Australia has. We're full and our services like health, housing and education are stretched to their limits. Enough is enough.

Posted by: vidcapper 16th June 2016, 09:35 AM

Glad to see I'm not the only Leave predictor.

The average so far : 48% Leave, 52% Remain, 67% Turnout

Posted by: vidcapper 16th June 2016, 09:41 AM

On a side issue, given that recent polls favour Leave...

Do the Remainers here believe that : either the polls are wrong, or that Leavers will get cold feet at the last minute?

Posted by: Brett-Butler 16th June 2016, 10:26 AM

I think that either/or a) There'll be a "Gordon Brown moment" that galvinises pride in being both British & European, giving the REMAIN side the win, b) there'll be a big concession made in the next few days to convince those on the LEAVE side to stay, and c) I think many of the people who are currently undecided will end up voting to REMAIN.

Posted by: Jack 16th June 2016, 11:08 AM

Because morons like you have contributed so much 🙄 You may think you're not racist, but pure probably too stupid to realise that you are.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 16th June 2016, 11:30 AM

I've always found that calling someone who doesn't agree with my point of view "thick" is just the right tactic to bring them over to my way of thinking.

Posted by: Rooney 16th June 2016, 11:35 AM

Some are racist, but the EU is not at fault for the countries problems. The NHS cannot meet the demand, that is 100% correct. But any one with an ounce of common sense can see that it's not down to EU nationals. It's because people are living longer. It's highly likely that even if we leave we will have to allow free movement of people, so it's ridiculous to use that as an excuse. Any in any case, the real issue is people are living longer. It's entirely short-term thinking as it is not the root cause.



I think people that are Leavers will stay that way. There's more passion from that camp and the polls reflect that. I think it's the undecided camp that will swing things. We already have evidence of our economy deep-diving, it's things like this that show the propaganda from the Remain side is mostly factually correct.

Posted by: Qassändra 16th June 2016, 12:45 PM

Nowhere near half of Europe is coming here.

Posted by: Qassändra 16th June 2016, 12:47 PM

That the polls as they stand are correct but current undecideds will go for the status quo.

Posted by: Jack 16th June 2016, 02:03 PM

I'm happy to listen to other sides of the argument but when they're as ill mannered and as idiotic as his, then I'm not really bothered.

Posted by: Liаm 16th June 2016, 02:06 PM

Leave: 52%
Remain: 48%
Turnout: 65%

Really starting to think that Leave will just about push it It's going to be basically 50/50 though I'd say as a few have predicted.

Posted by: Virginia's Walls 16th June 2016, 03:12 PM

More immigration comes from OUTSIE THE EU and Leave MPs call immigration levels 'about right' and a points system lets anyone in who completes the requisites. No control over numbers.

Posted by: vidcapper 16th June 2016, 03:34 PM

Any concession by the EU would be meaningless, as it would need to be ratified by all the other countries - unlikely in the extreme!




If the economy is 'deep-diving' *while* we are a member of the EU, that's surely not a great advertisement for it?

Posted by: *Tim 16th June 2016, 03:57 PM

The economy is deepdiving because of the possibility of y'all leaving, which leads to companies not investing in the UK, which has been explained to you multiple times

Posted by: Suedehead2 16th June 2016, 04:21 PM

Which might possibly be a vaguely valid point if not for the inconvenient fact that the vast majority of Europeans are still in their country of origin.

Even a lot of Leave campaigners accept that the Australian immigration system (whose intention, incidentally, is to increase Australia's population) is totally inappropriate for Britain. A large proportion of European immigrants to the UK only stay for short periods. Immigrants to Australia generally intend to stay permanently. A look at a map will help to explain why.

Posted by: Rooney 16th June 2016, 05:04 PM

I think the Brexit campaign has just been shot in the foot by the far-right. Can't see us leaving now after the terrorist attack on our own doorstep.

Posted by: vidcapper 22nd June 2016, 02:27 PM

There was a raving-loony attack, but I didn't hear of a *terrorist* one.

Any late predictions (or revisions)?

Posted by: Joe. 22nd June 2016, 02:34 PM

It was a terrorist attack. A white shooter, who's been brainwashed by the kind of hate that papers like The Sun and Daily Mail preach.

All terrorists could be described as "raving loonys".

Posted by: Qween 22nd June 2016, 02:51 PM

I think we've forgotten though that, if everything else is equal, a white Christian attacker is just mentally ill whereas a Muslim attacker is automatically a terrorist. That's just plain common sense.

Posted by: Oliver 22nd June 2016, 03:28 PM

"Terrorism, in its broadest sense, is defined as the use of violence or threatened use of violence (terror), often targeting civilians, in order to achieve a political, religious, or ideological aim."

Considering the attacker shouted "Britain First" and said his name, in court, was "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain", it is quite clear his motives were politically charged, and therefore should be viewed as a terrorist attack. He's being charged "under terrorism-related protocols" anyway.

I'm still worried that Leave will win, but I've grown completely tired of the whole referendum and if I didn't vote early I would find it very hard to motivate myself to go and vote. I've also had to block a lot of people on Facebook until after the referendum because they would be posting 10+ statuses about it every day.

Posted by: Hazza Chapman 22nd June 2016, 03:46 PM

I cant wait for this Referendum thing to be over. I'm sure Jo Cox would still be alive today if it wasn't for this f***ing referendum that the media have been clogging our ears with every day for the past few months. smh

Posted by: Mdh 22nd June 2016, 03:52 PM

If the bloke was a devote Muslim called Abdullah or something like that you'd probably call it a terrorist attack. :/

Posted by: *Callum™ 22nd June 2016, 04:03 PM

Hopefully we're leaving the EU. But I'm doubtful.

Posted by: vidcapper 22nd June 2016, 04:20 PM

Because I'll retreat back to just the UK Chart Forum?

Posted by: Harve 22nd June 2016, 05:31 PM

50.5% remain / 49.5% leave

help

Posted by: Froot. 22nd June 2016, 05:32 PM

Sadly, I'm almost certain the result will be leave. It's scary that people are listening to the likes of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove & Rupert Murdoch rather than the vast majority of thousands of actual experts. It's even more scary that this is occurring right when I'm looking for a job.

The EU is not perfect and there are issues with democracy, although EU law making is faaaar lower than the Leave campaign are claiming. There is yet to be any significant evidence provided by the Leave campaign and it's supporters that we will be better off out. I notice Vidcapper that you completely ignore every valid point that is raised, particularly seen here as the murder of Jo Cox was quite obviously an act of terrorism, no matter what your views on the referendum, and it is quite worrying that people are being influenced by the media's initial portrayal of him.

Posted by: Virginia's Walls 22nd June 2016, 05:36 PM

This should never have been a referendum

Posted by: Hazza Chapman 22nd June 2016, 05:37 PM

What?

Posted by: Liаm 22nd June 2016, 06:11 PM

I was saying earlier, it's going to be so much worse if it's just a couple of % or something that leave edges it by, because that will just make me think that if so many young people weren't so apathetic, it would have been different Obviously it's awful with 2% or 20% (not that it will be that high either way) but it's just going to really hurt if it's so close.

Posted by: Rooney 22nd June 2016, 06:40 PM

Can't see us Leaving still, there's been a swing back for Remain over the past week. The Remainers are just far more silent than Brexiters imo.

Still, it's a scary thought we could be seeing Nigel Farage very smug on Friday.

Posted by: Doctor Blind 22nd June 2016, 06:43 PM

I am still confident of a remain vote, it will be close - but not within the bounds of legal action at around 54 to 46 in remains favour.

With regard to Thomas Mair, he is absolutely a terrorist - by its very definition - however his motives political or otherwise are unclear. As with Omar Mateen, whose motivations may or may not have been influenced by his own internal torment and conflict created due to his own sexuality and its implications within the religion he follows, Thomas Mair http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jo-cox-death-thomas-mair-mental-health-court-luxury-a7090216.html (and even sought help that very morning but was turned away). It is therefore far too early to find any link between his political views and his actions at this point.

Posted by: popchartfreak 22nd June 2016, 06:52 PM

Other folk have replied beautifully. I'll just add under half of our annual immigrants come from the eu. Gove johnson and farge fail to point out that thry have all failed to mention that or explain why thy havent stopped non-eu immigrtion with just such a policy. They could do that right now. There is no intention fom the likes of gove and farage that the number of immigrants will drop, just that thy will be "poor disadvataged" white english speaking immigrants instead of dodgy poles and muslims. Just like australias racist policy USED to be.

Leave have not said they will stop immigration nor have they given any figures for it that it will fall to, gove denied being even aware of the figures until he decided to join the campaign. Twat.

Posted by: Colm 22nd June 2016, 08:19 PM

Remain 58
Leave 42

75% turnout

Posted by: Colm 22nd June 2016, 08:22 PM

I'm afraid we can't keep you in.

Posted by: Joe. 22nd June 2016, 08:27 PM

Are Northern Ireland not voting? Wales will vote to stay for the most part I'd assume.

Posted by: Colm 22nd June 2016, 08:30 PM

NI are voting.

Posted by: Silas 22nd June 2016, 08:32 PM

Yes they are, Colm is from the Republic though

I'm not sure about Wales, they leaned fairly UKIP in May. I think they'll vote leave but NI and Scotland will vote to stay. The only one I can't call is England.

As Dr Blind alluded to earlier, Scotland can save a English leave vote to force all of us into staying, but it requires a 66/33 split in Scotland and no more than a 48/52 split in England. More than 52% and England is just too populous for the other three to save the United Kingdom. (Because if we vote to leave then by the time that negotiation is concluded the United Kingdom of Great Britian and Northern Ireland will have ceased to exist.)

Posted by: Suedehead2 22nd June 2016, 08:39 PM

The status of the island of Ireland is another issue on which the Leave side are totally incoherent. Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary who you might have thought would feel obliged to have a vague idea what she was talking about, insists that the current border arrangements could remain in place if (as she wants) the UK leaves the EU. She hasn't explained how we can be said to control our borders if people can simply travel here via Ireland.

Posted by: Colm 22nd June 2016, 08:56 PM

That's a huge issue here. There are all sorts of repercussion for travel and for politics here if the UK votes to leave. For the fist time ever the Norther Ireland and Rep of Ireland will have different statuses regarding EU membership so the border will become more visible. This will irk Sinn Fein.

As you say, if the border stays as it is it creates a backdoor into the UK and another backdoor into the EU.

Posted by: vidcapper 23rd June 2016, 05:09 AM

Well that's where I usually hang out, and my non-PC political opinions don't get aired there, so they don't rub people up the wrong way.

Posted by: vidcapper 23rd June 2016, 05:21 AM

I've always thought it was likely that Remain would prevail, given that most of the establishment & business community was batting for them. For me though, the economic arguments never carried much weight, it was always about the freedom to control our own destiny.

I originally predicted 51-49 in favour of leave, but in the light of recent polls, it seems more likely to be 52-48 in favour of Remain.

In a strange way, a loss would be less disappointing for me if the polls had never been close, as then my hopes would not have been raised.

I also predict a probable chorus of triumph from the Remain camp, followed over the next few months by 'We told you so' from the Brexit camp when the EU reveals the plans it has been hiding in order to avoid influencing the referendum against them.

Posted by: Suedehead2 23rd June 2016, 07:03 AM

Swiftly followed by the UK government (and, possibly, others) saying they will veto any of the proposals they don't like.

Posted by: Oliver 23rd June 2016, 09:11 AM

That's as much true for the remain camp as it is for the leave camp. Although I fully expect the leave camp to be A LOT louder if they win than remain being loud if they win.

Posted by: Joe. 23rd June 2016, 09:18 AM

The Leave camp will more likely have "WE'RE DOOMED" headlines if we stay.

Posted by: vidcapper 23rd June 2016, 09:28 AM

Now you've spoiled the surprise...

Posted by: Qween 23rd June 2016, 09:40 AM

I'm sure it will be an ENTIRELY CIVILISED affair when Leave lose.

Posted by: Oliver 23rd June 2016, 11:19 AM

I hope Nigel Farage has the decency to step down as an MEP if Remain win, he has no right to be there taking his massive paycheck when he so clearly doesn't want to be there.

Posted by: Joe. 23rd June 2016, 11:23 AM

His style of campaigning is also the reason lots of Leavers were put off, so if we were to stay, it'd be partially down to him.

Posted by: richie 23rd June 2016, 12:19 PM

52-48 to Remain but with at least 80% turning out. The Scottish referendum had nearly 85% and the buzz to get registered in the run up to this feels the same.

Posted by: Qween 23rd June 2016, 01:26 PM

I think the only thing Nigel Farage has ever convinced me of is that he lacks even the slightest MODICUM of decency.

Posted by: Brett-Butler 23rd June 2016, 01:27 PM

He'll stay in his job until he dies/is voted out/UK pull out of EU, whichever one come first. After all, if you hate something and can't leave, the next best option is to destroy it from the inside.

Posted by: Silas 23rd June 2016, 01:49 PM

If it was as undemocratic as he claims they'd have told him to f*** off years ago

Posted by: Brett-Butler 23rd June 2016, 01:53 PM

The latest election odds from William Hill (other bookmakers are available) -

Remain - 1/8
Leave - 5/1

Looks quite decisive as things stand. Bookies tend to be well informed about these kind of things.

Posted by: Scene 23rd June 2016, 03:30 PM

Leave 54%
Remain 46%

Turnout 65%

(I'm actually not sure which one will win but I'm being pessimistic so if I'm wrong here, I still win since we'll remain in the EU )

Posted by: vidcapper 24th June 2016, 06:48 AM

I have never been happier to be wrong! my original prediction was almost spot on.




I guess they'll be as glum as the Remain camp this morning - I just wish I'd taken those 5-1 odds though...

Posted by: popchartfreak 24th June 2016, 08:13 AM

And my prediction and comments were 99.9% correct. I was 0.1% out.

Never underestimate peoples stupidity and racism.

Hope youre equally as happy about the massive drops in the pound and british shares. Not to mention the emergency pep talk by the bank of england trying to steady investor nerves.

Welcome to Little England. Goodbye UK.

Posted by: vidcapper 24th June 2016, 08:59 AM

Did it ever occur to you that accusing people of racism for supporting Brexit might be counter-productive?

As for the markets, fat-cat traders always exploit uncertainty - they soon stabilise however.