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 Prediction time - EU Referendum |
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 15th June 2016, 05:29 AM
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#1
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 
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This is not intended as a thread to discuss the pros & cons, but simply to post what you think the result will be.
1. The percentages for Leave/Remain 2. The turnout |
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15th June 2016, 05:30 AM
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#2
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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My prediction :
Leave 51% Remain 49% (though with significant regional variations) Turnout 70% |
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15th June 2016, 06:43 AM
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#3
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 19 December 2015
Posts: 20,102 User: 22,776
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Leave - 47%
Remain - 53% Turnout - 69% |
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15th June 2016, 08:22 AM
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#4
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jun 15 2016, 06:29 AM)  This is not intended as a thread to discuss the pros & cons, but simply to post what you think the result will be. 1. The percentages for Leave/Remain 2. The turnout BTW, a year ago I expected that the result would be something like 60/40 in favour of Remain... |
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15th June 2016, 08:36 AM
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#5
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Why do today, what you can do tomorrow?
Joined: 7 November 2008
Posts: 10,467 User: 7,645
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Remain - 55%
Leave - 45% Turnout - 77% |
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15th June 2016, 08:44 AM
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#6
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 11 October 2013
Posts: 31,028 User: 19,931
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Remain - 51%
Leave - 49% Turnout - 64% |
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15th June 2016, 08:50 AM
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#7
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 Schlagerdrottningen
Joined: 23 August 2010
Posts: 31,877 User: 11,709
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I think it's going to be damn near 50/50 at this point, which is quite terrifying really. For the sake of simplicity I will go with 51% Remain, 49% Leave and turnout around 65%.
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15th June 2016, 09:35 AM
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#8
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Qween @ Jun 15 2016, 09:50 AM) I think it's going to be damn near 50/50 at this point, which is quite terrifying really. For the sake of simplicity I will go with 51% Remain, 49% Leave and turnout around 65%. One thing's for sure, if the result is very close either way, the issue is just going to rumble on (not to mention the inevitable accusations of vote-rigging). 
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15th June 2016, 09:54 AM
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#9
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 The owls are not what they seem
Pronouns: He/him
Joined: 11 July 2009 Posts: 37,129 User: 9,232
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Definitely not as confident as before, but I'll say Remain will just about win with 53-47, with around a 65% turnout. Wouldn't be surprised if England voted Leave and it's Scotland/Ireland that just keep us in.
It actually makes me sick to the stomach that Leave is a serious possibility now 
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15th June 2016, 11:03 AM
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#10
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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REMAIN 54
LEAVE 46 TURNOUT 61 |
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15th June 2016, 11:10 AM
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#11
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Chez Wombat @ Jun 15 2016, 10:54 AM) Definitely not as confident as before, but I'll say Remain will just about win with 53-47, with around a 65% turnout. Wouldn't be surprised if England voted Leave and it's Scotland/Ireland that just keep us in. It actually makes me sick to the stomach that Leave is a serious possibility now Whereas I'd be breaking out the champagne... 
This post has been edited by vidcapper: 15th June 2016, 11:10 AM |
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15th June 2016, 11:11 AM
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#12
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My mother said, to get things done, you better not mess with Maj
Joined: 28 October 2014
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My most pessimistic expection would be 54% Leave, 46% Remain, but more realistically I'd say something among the lines of 52% Remain, 48% Leave on a 73% turnout.
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15th June 2016, 11:19 AM
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#13
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Taylor Jago @ Jun 15 2016, 12:11 PM) My most pessimistic expection would be 54% Leave, 46% Remain, but more realistically I'd say something among the lines of 52% Remain, 48% Leave on a 73% turnout. I never thought of giving a range!  In that case I would say 48-52% either way (I hope there aren't splinters in the fence I am sitting on there...  )
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15th June 2016, 11:33 AM
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#14
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 Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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Remain - 55
Leave - 45 Turnout - 75% |
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15th June 2016, 01:12 PM
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#15
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,833 User: 17,376
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jun 15 2016, 12:10 PM) Whereas I'd be breaking out the champagne... surely that would be an EU import  Leave 52% Remain 48% Even amongst recent immigrants there is strong racism against the former communist bloc. Reasoned arguments have no effect on emotional bias. GHUA. |
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15th June 2016, 01:20 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,674 User: 3,272
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Remain 52%
Leave 48% Turnout 56% |
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15th June 2016, 01:28 PM
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#17
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
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Going to go with 53-47 to Remain with about a 65% turnout (which is more or less what it was at the last election I think?) which to my mind is waaaaay too close for comfort.
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15th June 2016, 01:30 PM
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#18
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 Alone and wounded
Pronouns: She/her
Joined: 18 January 2011 Posts: 60,176 User: 12,810 
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Remain - 53%
Leave - 47% Turnout - 66% |
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15th June 2016, 01:33 PM
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#19
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
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Interesting how the turnout is varying so much. I'd call it at about mid-60s myself given you'd be hard pressed to go much higher than that but it'll most likely be a referendum that gets a rather high turnout given its importance.
I'd probably call the same as most of you, I have 50-50 stuck in my mind though, which would be awkward for all as it means the issue wouldn't even have the decency to get put to rest (not that I'd want it to get put to rest if it were Leave winning but I'd rather just be cutting ties with the people who took my EU citizenship from me rather than arguing more with them at that point). |
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15th June 2016, 03:05 PM
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#20
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Schlagerdrottningen
Joined: 23 August 2010
Posts: 31,877 User: 11,709
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I was fairly confident in a 55-45 Remain result up until the last week or so. I HOPE I'm wrong, I really do, but as awful and muddled as this has all been it just seems like Leave has been able to cut through the BS a bit more effectively to pull it dangerously close.
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