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 By-elections 2024, New parliament, new thread |
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 Jan 18 2020, 11:49 AM
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#1
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272 
        
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Now that we have a new parliament, it seems reasonable to start a new thread to discuss local byelections. The usual caveat applies - you cannot draw any real conclusions from individual results.
There was one byelection on Thursday in Bristol. Labour held what has generally been a close contest between them and the Tories with an increased majority. Last time the seat was fought (May 2016), Labour and Tories won one seat each in the ward. The Tory has since effected to the Lib Dems (in opposition to Johnson) which probably contributed to the party more than doubling their vote. |
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Jan 24 2020, 08:25 AM
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#2
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272
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There were five by-elections yesterday, four of them in Brent. Labour won all four Brent seats in 2018 with comfortable majorities but things weren't quite so smooth yesterday. They held one seat fairly comfortably although there was a big swing to the Tories. In another ward where two seats were being contested there was also a big swing to the Tories with Labour just about holding both seats.
The fourth seat was more eventful. The seat had previously been won by a Lib Dem in 2002 but he defected to Labour in 2012 and successfully defended the seat as a Labour candidate in both 2014 and 2018. He was then convicted of stealing money while acting as an executor for an estate. As if that wasn't bad enough for Labour, their new candidate was suspended when some Islamophobic tweets were discovered. Once again a party had failed to carry out some basic checks. With no "official" Labour candidate (although he was still on the ballot paper as it was too late to withdraw) the seat was up for grabs and the Lib Dems duly won. The new councillor immediately becomes the leader of a Lib Dem group of one and joins three Tories in trying to oppose the slightly diminished Labour group of 59. The other seat was a Tory defence in Galloway but I haven't seen a result for that. |
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Jan 24 2020, 12:15 PM
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#3
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 Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,069 User: 3,474
  
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The Galloway one was a Tory win. 22% up on the last election with over 60% BUT there was an independent in the last election that came second with 28% of the vote (approx) who didn’t stand this time. Labour last behind the Greens
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Jan 24 2020, 12:30 PM
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#4
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 Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
   
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Two of the Brent defences, Wembley Central and Alperton, are in the top 5 wards in Britain for numbers of Hindus, with the third Brent ward being a fairly high percentage too.
In December, the three most Hindu constituencies - Brent North as well as Leicester East (safe Labour) and Harrow East (marginal Tory) - all recorded some pretty horrific swings towards the Tories. This was totally out of kilter with the normal of pattern of Remain-voting, ethnically diverse, fairly well-educated places like these, where Labour generally managed to hold steady in an election that was otherwise terrible for them (they did lose some of their vote to the Lib Dems and Greens, but so did the Tories). So we have evidence that BJP-affiliated groups' support for the Tories last year over India-related issues did pay off to some extent. I'm sure when the British Election Study report comes out, we'll still find that British Hindus are majority Labour, but the swing against them might have been disproportionate. The Scottish by elections mostly count the following day, in my experience. Galloway used to be fertile territory for the SNP 25 years ago, but the SNP's voterbase has changed since they absorbed Labour and this now has very Scottish Tory-favourable demographics, so no wonder the Tories held steady. |
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Jan 24 2020, 01:30 PM
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#5
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272
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Scottish local by-elections are under AV (assuming there is only one vacancy) which takes a bit longer to count. That would be a reason for leaving the count until the following day.
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Feb 28 2020, 07:51 AM
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#6
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
  
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There were 7 local by-elections last night. 2 interesting changes - the Conservatives lost a seat in Cambridge to the Liberal Democrats, whilst Labour lost a seat in Manchester to an independent candidate. Cambridge electing a Lib Dem isn't a surprise, although Labour losing one in Manchester is slightly more so, and even more interesting it wasn't to a different party. Plaid Cymru also gained a seat in Wrexham from an independent.
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Feb 28 2020, 08:53 AM
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#7
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272
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Last night's results were generally terrible for Labour.
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Mar 20 2020, 08:16 AM
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#8
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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Last night in Upper Stoke, we had what's likely to be the last by-election for several months. It was a Labour hold, with turnout a minuscule 9%.
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Mar 20 2020, 08:40 AM
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#9
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,139 User: 5,138
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Jesus, barely worth it!
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Mar 20 2020, 08:23 PM
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#10
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272
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There will be a lot to come when things get back to something vaguely resembling normality.
There will have been a lot of contests being held over until the May elections. Some of these will have been vacant for some time already as byelections are not held if the term of the former councillor (i.e. the one who resigned or died) had less than six months to run. There will also be councillors who were expecting to step down in May and who are not able or willing to continue beyond then. |
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Oct 2 2020, 11:17 AM
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#11
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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Re-upping this thread in anticipation of a potential by-election for Westminster. If it happens I don't think the election itself will happen until next year, unless there are changes to the regulations between now and then.
There was a local by-election yesterday in the Northern Isles of Scotland. Will probably take a while for these to be counted as it's off in the Orkneys and most of the ballots were postal ones. |
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Oct 2 2020, 11:54 AM
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#12
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 is in hibernation
Joined: 24 August 2014
Posts: 11,385 User: 21,161
  
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Tbf the voting process would be fairly easy to maintain distancing in I’d imagine.
If Labour’s Keir boost has any hope of reaching Scotland then they should be able to gain this seat |
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Oct 2 2020, 12:32 PM
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#13
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Andrew. @ Oct 2 2020, 12:54 PM)  Tbf the voting process would be fairly easy to maintain distancing in I’d imagine. If Labour’s Keir boost has any hope of reaching Scotland then they should be able to gain this seat Campaigning would be difficult. Getting people to answer the door after dark is difficult at the best of times, let alone in a pandemic. There is also the issue of the count. Social distancing rules would mean either hiring a much larger venue or employing fewer people to conduct the count. Even with that, it would be almost impossible for the parties to have people scrutinising the count. That, of course, is set to be a an issue in the bumper set of elections next May. |
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Oct 2 2020, 12:38 PM
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#14
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 2 2020, 01:32 PM) Campaigning would be difficult. Getting people to answer the door after dark is difficult at the best of times, let alone in a pandemic. There is also the issue of the count. Social distancing rules would mean either hiring a much larger venue or employing fewer people to conduct the count. Even with that, it would be almost impossible for the parties to have people scrutinising the count. That, of course, is set to be a an issue in the bumper set of elections next May. With regard to the count, if you had a reasonable testing programme in place it would be possible to conduct several tests over the days before the count of all those involved, allowing only those that provided several consecutive negative tests so that social distancing was not required in the venue. |
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Oct 2 2020, 12:41 PM
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#15
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is in hibernation
Joined: 24 August 2014
Posts: 11,385 User: 21,161
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Yeah, I know it's completely different but for Bake Off they had over 100 people in a bubble for a certain amount of time so I imagine they could do the same for something this important
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Oct 2 2020, 12:51 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Oct 2 2020, 01:38 PM) With regard to the count, if you had a reasonable testing programme in place it would be possible to conduct several tests over the days before the count of all those involved, allowing only those that provided several consecutive negative tests so that social distancing was not required in the venue. That might work for the people conducting the count (as long as their normal employers agree) but it would be more difficult for the party scrutineers. The people who do that tend also to be the ones going out knocking on doors. Even with regular tests, they would surely be expected to avoid going out and meeting lots of people. That is before bringing the candidates themselves into consideration. One solution might be to hold the election a day or two earlier and then count over the weekend although some places (with county, district and PCC elections) may not even finish over a weekend! QUOTE(Andrew. @ Oct 2 2020, 01:41 PM) Yeah, I know it's completely different but for Bake Off they had over 100 people in a bubble for a certain amount of time so I imagine they could do the same for something this important It may be possible for a one-off byelection but it isn't really practical for May. Every local count involves a few hundred people or more. Overall, thousands of people will be involved. I just hope people within Whitehall have started to think about this as postponing another set of elections should be avoided if at all possible. |
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Mar 16 2021, 12:05 PM
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#17
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,364 User: 23,471
  
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Here we go |
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Mar 16 2021, 12:09 PM
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929        
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Well, this'll be fun. Got visions of another Copeland happening, though Hartlepool is fairly safe Labour.
I'm sure people will extrapolate the result from this a lot. |
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Mar 16 2021, 01:01 PM
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#19
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,652 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Mar 16 2021, 12:09 PM) Well, this'll be fun. Got visions of another Copeland happening, though Hartlepool is fairly safe Labour. I'm sure people will extrapolate the result from this a lot. The majority was down to 3,500 last time with the Farage Fan Club a close third. |
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Mar 16 2021, 01:18 PM
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#20
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455
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I'm surprised that it's taken as long as it has for any seats to become vacant since the last general election given COVID and the age profile of many MPs. Will be interesting to see how the pandemic and the end of the Brexit process has affected support for the major parties If Labour lose the seat, I'd think that it would be likely due to the Reform Party pulling support away from them (their leader stood their last time, so I imagine he'll stand again).
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