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 The Official Labour Foot-Shoot Thread, Mk II |
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 12th November 2019, 08:25 PM
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#881
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 Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,082 User: 3,474 
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I can see Labour being just as vulnerable as the Tories to seat losses. I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a good 90-100 seats split between the SNP and Lib Dems come Dec 13th with neither of the two traditional main parties hitting the magic number
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12th November 2019, 08:31 PM
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#882
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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The Labour activist who tweeted a picture of Theresa May cowering with a gun at her head has been selected for the safe Labour seat of Jarrow, much to the annoyance of McDonnell and Corbyn. One of Corbyn's former aides was tipped for the seat but the local party has gone for the woman.
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13th November 2019, 06:21 AM
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#883
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Nov 12 2019, 05:57 PM)  The seat voted 72% Remain. That, and the fact that they last got over 25% of the vote (just) in 1983, means the Tories can safely be written off. The fact that the Lib Dems had consistently been competitive for a long time up to 2010 means that there are still a lot of people used to voting Lib Dem. They are likely to be easier to win over than people who have never even considered voting for the party. That, of course, doesn't mean they will win. It does, though, mean that the possibility shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. I have no doubt there'll be a swing to the LD's, but 25% would be almost unprecedented outside of a by-election. QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Nov 12 2019, 08:25 PM) I can see Labour being just as vulnerable as the Tories to seat losses. I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a good 90-100 seats split between the SNP and Lib Dems come Dec 13th with neither of the two traditional main parties hitting the magic number I think the SNP may get 45-50 seats, but I cannot imagine the LD's getting 45-50 themselves. |
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13th November 2019, 08:18 AM
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#884
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,152 User: 5,138
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The SNP will most likely get 50-55 seats imo. Would be lovely to see Swinson lose her seat!!
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13th November 2019, 08:46 AM
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#885
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Steve201 @ Nov 13 2019, 08:18 AM) The SNP will most likely get 50-55 seats imo. Would be lovely to see Swinson lose her seat!! You expect them to regain most of what they lost in 2015, then? Even so, I think 40-45 seats would still be beyond the LD's. |
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13th November 2019, 08:49 AM
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#886
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Nov 13 2019, 08:46 AM) You expect them to regain most of what they lost in 2015, then? Even so, I think 40-45 seats would still be beyond the LD's. I can't see the Lib-Dems getting 40 seats. |
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13th November 2019, 09:19 AM
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#887
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,152 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Nov 13 2019, 08:46 AM) You expect them to regain most of what they lost in 2015, then? Even so, I think 40-45 seats would still be beyond the LD's. Yes I really do, look at big personalities like the former leader, leaving a sinking ship. Especially with FOTP system - the Brexit issue will have focused minds again and they will sweep away some of the Tory seats and a few Lib Dems/labourites. That's the thing the tories re-established themselves after the referendum somewhat because it became unionist vs nationalist and as per usual the tories ruin that with their divisive 'couldn't give a damn about scotland' policies. That's the thing the United Kingdom doesn't work because it's dominated by English (Tory) MPs. |
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13th November 2019, 11:14 AM
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#888
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,082 User: 3,474
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The lack of Rooth the mooth to plaster on all their election materials is gonna hurt the Tories. The “revival” was built around a cult of her personality. BoJo is fairly universally hated and the rest of the Scottish Tories are either rapey, racist, abominable c**ts or complete personality vacuums. They’re gonna fall back I think in favour of the lib dems which might be enough in a few 3 way marginals to tip the hat back to the nationalists. I remain unconvinced by a 50 seat projection though. 37-42 is probably far more realistic.
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13th November 2019, 11:43 PM
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#889
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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A poll expert on the BBC news channel today said that turnout, especially amongst the young, and the weather, could yet decide whether the Tories get a majority this election. If it's poor turnout by young people that favours the Tories as older people have a higher turnout traditionally. There could be 70% - 80% turnout in some areas for older voters and as little as 10% - 20% of young people. If all the current polls were weighted for that eventuality, none are now, then the Tory lead almost vanishes, is down to about 2% or show a 1% Labour lead. Bad weather favours the Tories for some reason that he didn't really explain. Surely the elderly don't like the cold?
This post has been edited by common sense: 14th November 2019, 12:00 AM |
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14th November 2019, 12:18 AM
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#890
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Is it the end of Corbynmania? From yesterday's Guardian:-
Just before the start, the blinds in the executive suite at Blackpool football club were drawn, throwing the room into semi-darkness. As a mark of respect, perhaps. Two years ago, Jeremy Corbyn was in the middle of a surprise sellout tour of the UK. The merchandise stalls had been doing great business with JC4PM T-shirts and the Labour leader had frequently been upgraded to bigger venues. He had been the man. Now he increasingly looks more like someone going through the motions. A last chance powerless drive to cash in by playing a few old favourites in front of a few die-hard fans, before he can dive back to his Born to Runner beans on the allotment, muttering to himself that he had given the election his best shot. Less than two weeks previously, Corbyn had launched Labour’s election campaign with a high-octane rally in Battersea. Back then he still had hope. However small. Now he could barely keep his eyes open as he introduced a showcase programme for lifelong education that should be at the heart of his party’s manifesto. It was almost as if he was punch-drunk. Years of being the underdog, of disproving the doubters, of always bouncing back, have finally taken their toll. Now it looked as if he had had enough. This was Corbyn at his most downbeat, his voice seldom rising above a mumble. “It makes me angry that some schools are closed on a Friday,” he said. Only he didn’t sound angry at all. Rather, he just sounded a bit fed up. The ageing geography supply teacher who is counting down the days to retirement and doesn’t really give a toss whether the kids learn anything so long as they give him an easy ride and he gets out alive. Not that he didn’t have plenty of good lines. About the floods, about the importance of training for everyone, about children going hungry in schools. He just couldn’t deliver them. Sentences that must have looked great on the page died on his lips. Rallying cries that faded into whispers. It was all he could do to get a response from the audience when he ended with the old favourite of “Our NHS is not for sale”. A few of the hundred or so Labour activists in the room – there were plenty of empty seats – broke into a desultory, short-lived chorus of “Not for sale”, though more out of a sense of obligation than with any real enthusiasm. Live Aid it wasn’t. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/n...ction-education |
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14th November 2019, 12:18 AM
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#891
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 21 November 2009
Posts: 8,557 User: 10,030
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Nov 13 2019, 11:14 AM) The lack of Rooth the mooth to plaster on all their election materials is gonna hurt the Tories. The “revival” was built around a cult of her personality. BoJo is fairly universally hated and the rest of the Scottish Tories are either rapey, racist, abominable c**ts or complete personality vacuums. They’re gonna fall back I think in favour of the lib dems which might be enough in a few 3 way marginals to tip the hat back to the nationalists. I remain unconvinced by a 50 seat projection though. 37-42 is probably far more realistic. Ruth not being the leader anymore will definitley hurt the Tories in Scotland. It'll be an interesting battleground as I didn't realise just how close a lot of the seats are. Hopefully, even if the SNP don't get as many seats as I expect, a lot of the Tory seats will change to Labour/Lib Dems. |
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14th November 2019, 12:20 AM
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#892
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Envoirment @ Nov 14 2019, 12:18 AM) Ruth not being the leader anymore will definitley hurt the Tories in Scotland. It'll be an interesting battleground as I didn't realise just how close a lot of the seats are. Hopefully, even if the SNP don't get as many seats as I expect, a lot of the Tory seats will change to Labour/Lib Dems. Was looking at Scottish majorities myself earlier and didn't realise myself that they were that close. Could be the difference between a small Tory majority and no majority. |
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14th November 2019, 06:03 AM
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#893
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(common sense @ Nov 13 2019, 11:43 PM) A poll expert on the BBC news channel today said that turnout, especially amongst the young, and the weather, could yet decide whether the Tories get a majority this election. If it's poor turnout by young people that favours the Tories as older people have a higher turnout traditionally. There could be 70% - 80% turnout in some areas for older voters and as little as 10% - 20% of young people. If all the current polls were weighted for that eventuality, none are now, then the Tory lead almost vanishes, is down to about 2% or show a 1% Labour lead. Bad weather favours the Tories for some reason that he didn't really explain. Surely the elderly don't like the cold? That sounds more like an MM post - have you been hacked? 
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14th November 2019, 08:05 AM
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#894
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,673 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(common sense @ Nov 13 2019, 11:43 PM) A poll expert on the BBC news channel today said that turnout, especially amongst the young, and the weather, could yet decide whether the Tories get a majority this election. If it's poor turnout by young people that favours the Tories as older people have a higher turnout traditionally. There could be 70% - 80% turnout in some areas for older voters and as little as 10% - 20% of young people. If all the current polls were weighted for that eventuality, none are now, then the Tory lead almost vanishes, is down to about 2% or show a 1% Labour lead. Bad weather favours the Tories for some reason that he didn't really explain. Surely the elderly don't like the cold? This is mentioned at every election, but I’m not sure how true it is any more. Historically, the assumption was that Tory voters were more likely to have access to a car meaning that the weather was less likely to put them off. The timing may make a difference with working people. In May, plenty of people can get home from work and then go out to vote while it is still light. In December, nobody with a 9-5 job will be able to do that. Will that be significant? Who knows? |
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21st November 2019, 11:12 AM
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#895
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,364 User: 23,471
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Rachel Riley, of Countdown fame, thought this would be a good idea. She's now selling these T-Shirts. Minimising racism to attack Corbyn doesn't help combat antisemitism and really highlights a big issue with the row. It's been warped and weaponised in a way that discredits genuine concerns — intended or not. This post has been edited by blacksquare: 21st November 2019, 11:27 AM |
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21st November 2019, 04:38 PM
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#896
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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So Corbyn was lying when he became leader when he said a new labour government would scrap the WCA, the Work Capability Assessment.
 Nothing in today's manifesto. They'll scrap Universal Credit and pay everyone in the WRA, Work Related Activity Group, another £30 a week, bringing it nearer to what those in the Support Group get. The WRA group is where you have to prepare for work one day and go on courses etc. The SG is where you're judged to be too ill to do anything.
This post has been edited by common sense: 21st November 2019, 04:44 PM |
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21st November 2019, 05:02 PM
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#897
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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QUOTE(common sense @ Nov 21 2019, 04:38 PM) So Corbyn was lying when he became leader when he said a new labour government would scrap the WCA, the Work Capability Assessment. Nothing in today's manifesto.and yet it says explicitly in the Manifesto: QUOTE We will stop the dehumanising Work Capability and PIP Assessments,
which repeatedly and falsely find ill or disabled people fit to work, and make sure all assessments are done in-house. |
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21st November 2019, 05:05 PM
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#898
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Doctor Sleep @ Nov 21 2019, 05:02 PM) and yet it says explicitly in the Manifesto: Okay must have missed it. Was just reading a summary on their website and not the full manifesto. Was in a big argument on Mumsnet last night when praising Boris. Seems to be almost universally hated there. Yes, men can post there too. Had PM's telling me to F off which I have reported. This post has been edited by common sense: 21st November 2019, 05:07 PM |
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21st November 2019, 05:07 PM
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#899
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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QUOTE(common sense @ Nov 21 2019, 05:05 PM) Okay must have missed it. To be fair re-reading that it appears that some form of assessment will continue, but I would imagine it would be much fairer and less intimidating than the current system. |
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21st November 2019, 05:56 PM
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#900
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 1 June 2013
Posts: 527 User: 19,091
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QUOTE(common sense @ Nov 21 2019, 06:05 PM) Okay must have missed it. How convenient. |
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